profile

Read The Line

Make it rain 💵

Published 29 days ago • 6 min read

On the edge of your seat!

PEBBLE BEACH, CA

We have brand new life in Monterey! The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am received “signature” status by the PGA TOUR. As such, 18 of the top 20 in the OWGR have descended upon America’s most famous golf landscape, Pebble Beach Golf Links. Home to countless years on the TOUR and several memorable major championships this venue has not seen a field like this since the 2019 US Open.

With elevated status, comes a significant change in the format we have witnessed for so many years. The purse is now $20 million dollars, so thankfully we won’t have to sit through six-hour rounds and countless awkward Bill Murray and Ray Romano jokes. Only 80 players are in this 72-hole no cut event. The name says “Pro-am” and each of the 80 competitors will have a partner for the first two rounds. The PGA TOUR also dropped the third course. The field will play Pebble Beach GL and Spyglass Hill Golf Links for rounds one and two on Thursday and Friday.

AT&T starts in...

Count down to 2024-02-01T14:30:00.000Z

The first-place check is for $3.6 million dollars and one of the main reasons why those amateur partners won’t be around for the weekend. Saturday and Sunday will take place on the impeccable design of Pebble Beach. I cannot wait to see the TOUR setup a Pebble weekend without amateur players. Both courses hold a par 72 scorecard. Spyglass Hill is located along the western shore of the Monterey Peninsula. The first six holes take you out to the seaside landscape. Seven through 18 weaves through the woods and the whole course challenges the players with several elevation changes.

Most are familiar with the coastal layout of Pebble. One of the shortest courses on TOUR, the true character of this test comes when approaching the greens. These 18 targets are the smallest this field will find all year on the PGA TOUR. Pebble Beach has a fair amount of elevation changes as well. Both courses are significantly exposed to the elements. Believe me, it is not nice here for golf. The real-time weather link provided can give you the most up to date forecast, but it’s cold and very damp.

🦭

Course conditions

Pebble Beach & Spyglass Hill

📺📲

"How to watch?"

Coverage times

🌧️

Real-time weather

Pebble Beach, CA

Mother... nature

It was covered in the GCSAA report, and you can feel it underfoot; these courses are wet. Cold and rainy, it will be target practice for these players. Here's the catch, as of writing this, Thursday and especially Sunday look quite windy. There are many weeks where we feature wedge acumen as a required skill. At Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill, it is a differentiating factor due to green size. You cannot keep up with this field if you are not hitting GIRs. Because of the length and predicted wind, our winner will need to hit over 75% of his greens.

A second priority during the AT&T is finding fairways. Pebble Beach has the lowest average driving distance on TOUR. Off the tee success requires experience and a gameplan. I’m favoring those who have played these courses (in February) before. Every winner since 2006 has finished in the top 21 of the AT&T prior to winning. The average champion's score of the last ten Pebble Pro-ams is 18 under par. I believe scoring will be similar based upon the conditions and new format if the weather stays reasonably calm. Across the two course there are 14 par 4s (of 20) that measure under 430 yards. They get four par 5s each day and the par 3s aren’t killer. Both courses have a par 3 under 130 yards.

Read The Line recap 🗞️

Pay attention to the par 3s and 5s. 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am winner Justin Rose had three eagles last year. Two on a par 5 and a hole in one! He played the 3s six under par and the 5s 10 under par on his way to a winning score of 18 under par. The 4s will test you in so many different ways at Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill. Go low on the rest and you'll be in contention.

One item I am considering that most will miss is bogey avoidance. A true representative skill combining short game and putting aptitude. Players will often miss these 3,500 sq/ft greens. Getting up and down to maintain round momentum will be key to contending. Pebble Beach has 116 bunkers! Spyglass Hill offers up another 62 sandy situations along with a shoreline landscape for one third of the holes. To convert each birdie chance or par save will require making putts inside 10’.

Soft Poa annua greens will be really hard to keep smooth. Getting the best bounces requires a solid stroke. Sorry Scottie Scheffler, but this probably isn’t your week to build some confidence in competition with the putter. The last five winners have gained an average of 3.4 strokes on the field with their flatstick. Between the putter and the scoring wedges from the fairway we will find our winner.

Year after year the same names pop up on this leaderboard. Considering the new signature pressure and amateur field, I believe we will get our first mid-chalk winner of the season. It has been a wild start, but the truth is we have only had a field like this in one event and that leaderboard was stacked behind Chris Kirk. The next three weeks, I’ll be on-site to break down all of the action and watch the world’s best. We have two $20 million dollar purses coming and the WMPO.

The season used to start at Farmers when Tiger arrived. That’s no longer the case. The season starts this week when the cash is on the counter. Get ready for a really entertaining venue being attacked by the best OWGR has to offer. When it’s over, we will cash alongside our first outright win of the season.

Outright winners - AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am

In 11 trips to the AT&T, Jordan Spieth has 11 made cuts, six top 10s, and a win (2017).

  • The best wedge player in the field from the fairway and around the green.
  • Jordan has a top 15 career strokes gained total at the AT&T.
  • His last start at The Sentry, Spieth was in contention Sunday ultimately finishing third.
  • In bad weather situations, short game and putting are key differentiating skills.

Max Homa has eight straight top 15 finishes dating back to July.

  • Homa has three straight top 15 finishes at the AT&T and attended nearby University of California at Berkeley.
  • Four of Max's six PGA TOUR wins have come in his home state of California.
  • Max is a top 10 ranked player in this elite field for T2G, BoB%, and Bogey Avoidance.
  • Homa won the 2022 Wells Fargo on a cold rained soaked TPC Potomac golf course.

Looking for an "insider's edge?"

Those extra outright picks are just a click away. Become a member, and you can get our winning weekly narrative for the PGA TOUR and LPGA along with...

  • More outrights
  • One & Done picks
  • DFS lineups
  • Props & placements
  • H2H matchups

We are the ONLY on-site, live betting, PGA Professional

expert content in the industry!

Inside the ropes at the 2023 Genesis Invitational


"LIVE BETTING" ALL WEEKEND FOR FREE!
TIKTOK
INSTAGRAM
YOUTUBE
TWITTER/X

Read between the lines

The best place to follow news about Read The Line is right here!

Sports Grid every week (Tuesdays and Wednesdays)

Sports Grid is the internet's most popular sports betting streaming channel. They produce 18+ hours of live betting content every day. Keith will be featured as their PGA TOUR expert multiple times each week. Here's where you can catch him.

  • Tuesday morning (The Early Line - 9:10 am EST)
  • Wednesday afternoon (Ferrall Coast to Coast - 5:10pm EST)

RotoWire Rundown

Join Keith alongside RotoWire's Senior Golf Writer Len Hochberg. Together they cover the hottest topics in the golf betting industry every week.

Stripe Show

Every Tuesday at noon, Travis Fulton hosts Keith on his popular podcast series to cover the best bets of the week on the PGA TOUR.

Do you know what it means

to be a member of Read The Line?

We provide more outrights, prop bets, H2H matchups, DFS lineups,

and One & Done picks. Hit the link above and see for yourself!

DISCLAIMER: Read The Line provides information and insights concerning the game of golf, aimed at creating more intelligent sports fans. Read The Line does not seek to encourage any of our readers, members or users to engage in sports betting or otherwise make wagers based on the information and insights provided. Any betting or wagers made by readers, members or users are undertaken at their own risk and such activity does not give rise to any legal responsibility on the part of Read The Line. For more information, please refer to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

Think you have a gambling problem? Reach out for help. Read The line promotes responsible gaming. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit these online resources:

The National Council on Problem Gambling

Council on Compulsive Gaming - New Jersey

Read The Line

Golf Analysis, Birdie Banter, and Bonafide Insights Every Week​. As a subscriber to Read The Line, you'll elevate your sports knowledge.

Read more from Read The Line

Let's all be cognizant Let's get real, we have 15 days until THE PLAYERS Championship and approximately 40 (days) until round one at Augusta National. One player in the top 10 of the OWGR has won this year (Wyndham Clark) and Jake Knapp just stole the show in Mexico. We all love a Cinderella story, but to be honest, the stars need to step up. Thirteen of the top 40 in the world rankings are in the field for the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches. Rory McIlroy is the favorite and playing...

about 23 hours ago • 12 min read

All players travel a long suspension bridge to play Vidanta Vallarta! Norman never goes away The last time Hideki Matsuyama had a top 10 on the PGA TOUR was the 2023 PLAYERS Championship. With pre-tournament odds over +8000 depending on the book (Sunday AM he was +12000), the bizzarro world of betting golf in 2024 continues… After three weeks on-site covering the world’s best, I’m still not sure if a betting favorite can win on the PGA TOUR. I bring this up for a very specific reason. The...

8 days ago • 12 min read

The Book of Genesis PACIFIC PALISADES, CA The start of the 2024 PGA TOUR season feels delayed. Our first true "signature" event at Pebble Beach was marred by weather and reduced to 54-holes. Then it was a week in Arizona where the high temperature never crossed 60 degrees. The rain followed us to Scottsdale as well and challenged tournament officials in every round. Thankfully, the wet weather should not plague us again in Los Angeles for The Genesis Invitational. Tough to buy a break out...

15 days ago • 7 min read
Share this post