The Cup

L'ÎLE BIZARD, QUEBEC, CAN

Twenty-four of the world's best players have traveled to Montreal, Quebec, Canada for the fifteenth Presidents Cup. Ironically, it was started in 1994 at the Robert Trent Jones Golf Club in Gainesville, Virginia. Yes, the same course used for the Solheim Cup two weeks ago. Since then there have been 14 matches over the years. Twelve men from the United States compete against 12 men from around the world. The one caveat, they cannot be from Europe. That's the unique nature of this event. The rising popularity of the Ryder Cup in the 80s and star power of players like Greg Norman (Australia) and Ernie Els (South Africa) caused golf's leaders to react. How could we include the world's best players in an exhibition match?

A couple stars from around the world does not make up a competitive team ready to take on the United States. As we all expected, the US holds a 12-1-1 record. Keep in mind, when the Ryder Cup started, the United States won 22 of the first 25 of those matches. It takes time to build a team culture. Watching Captain Trevor Immelman in Charlotte at the last Presidents' Cup was eye opening. Everything from color branding to team building exercises were a part of his long term plan. We'll break down the teams in another section, but it is fascinating to watch these captains create a community. They aren't trying to bring together Europeans here, the International side is composed of Australians, Japanese, South Koreans, Canadians, and South Africans. That's quite the mix of athletes to find a common thread every two years.

Watching this week, Canadian native and International Captain Mike Weir is the next team architect. How much can he accomplish in just one week? I can say this from watching very closely, the crowds will give them every chance to come together. The practice rounds alone have been incredible. The US side is stacked; Scottie, Xander, Collin, etc. But come Sunday if this thing stays close, I wouldn't want to be in one of those closing matches. When Canadians hear there is a "cup" on the line they come out. Being here, I sincerely hope it's close because that atmosphere would be exactly the positive storyline professional golf so desperately needs.

Presidents Cup starts in...

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The Course

The seventh Presidents Cup matches were played at the Royal Montreal Golf Club. Located just west of Montreal city on L'Île Bizard, the club moved here in 1959. Now a 45-hole facility, the Blue Course was originally designed by Dick Wilson. Renovated in 2004-2005 by Rees Jones it is easy to discern this course favors accuracy over power. The 2007 Presidents Cup was won by the United States (19.5-14.5). Mike Weir led the International side by winning 3.5 points and Ernie Els earned three of his own. David Toms won 4.5 points and Scott Verplank four for the American side. Tiger Woods, Stewart Cink, Steve Stricker, Phil Mickelson, and Jim Furyk all earned three of their own. Furyk is the US Captain this week and the perfect player to design a winning strategy.

Royal Montreal is a par 70 scorecard measuring approximately 7,279 yards. Approximately is important because officials can really manipulate match play courses. Don't be surprised if the International side has a couple tricks up their sleeve. The average green size is 5,000 sq/ft and they are covered in a northern Bentgrass-Poa blend. Six holes have water in play and there are 71 bunkers. The final five holes have penalty areas, what a wonderful match play closing stretch. You can see why the International side loves coming to this venue. We have the standard par 70 allotment of holes: two par 5s, four par 4s, and 12 par 4s.

There have been many Canadian Opens contested at Royal Montreal. The editions that matter? Steve Jones won here in 1997, the same year he won the US Open. Scott Verplank and Tim Clark are two other Canadian Open winners at RMGC. All three men were definitely known for accuracy over power. Catching the theme yet..? I'm not worried as the American side is more precise in proximity than their counterparts from the globe. We expect some wet weather this week on Wednesday and Thursday. The Montreal region received 10" of rain in August. This course is soft. Length along with accuracy is going to be a huge edge. The Americans are favored for many reasons, and this is definitely one of them. Par 70 scoring, ground conditions, and overall design favor the red, white, and blue. Just wait until we get to the format.

The Format

The Presidents' Cup format is slightly different from the Ryder Cup. We start on Thursday with five Fourball matches. Also called better ball of partners, four balls are in play. The low individual score wins the hole for their team. Friday, we have five Foursome matches. Foursomes is commonly called alternate shot. Each team of two alternates shots until the ball is holed. The team with the lowest score wins the hole. Saturday we will see four fourball matches in the morning followed by four foursomes matches in the afternoon. The exhibition concludes on Sunday with 12 individual matches. Each match is worth a point. The first team to 15.5 points wins the Presidents Cup!

The pairings selection by the Captains is by far the best part of the week and way better than the Ryder Cup proceedings.

• The defending captain (USA) will decide who goes first to start the pairings.
• Once the first session is determined, the two captains will alternate for all the following sessions. This means if the US goes first in session one, the International captain will lead session two and so on.
• Within each session, the pairings are presented in a snake format. If Jim Furyk goes first, Mike Weir will reply with his first pairing. He then starts with the first pairing of the second match in that session and Jim will reply to that one. They continue this process until the session is completed.

The ultimate matchup moment comes on Saturday evening when the singles pairings are announced. Captains can basically pick who plays who to highlight the best matchups for the week and season. In a world where we all draft fantasy teams every day and pick winners for the weekend, Sunday's singles matchups are an unreal thrill to watch unfold in the media center.
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The Teams

We know who the twelve players are on each team. For a full breakdown, I wrote the full field Power Rankings for Golf Digest published on Monday. A player by player breakdown for all 24 competitors ranking their overall value toward winning the Cup for their side. The average age of these two teams is almost identical; 31 years old. Unfortunately for the International side, the similarities stop there. The average world ranking of the American side is 12 and the International team is 34. The Internationals do have more Cup experience (28 matches to 11 on the American side), but those are all losses. Adam Scott did play on the 2003 team that tied the Americans, but the global side has only won once and that was in 1998. Even Mike Weir was not on that team.

Matches like these are always won on the putting green. The United States is slightly better in strokes gained putting and putts per GIR. The real edge on the greens comes when you consider who the better putters are. Most of our best ball strikers are also good putters. Hideki, Tom Kim, Corey Conners will all need to fill the cup with their flatstick for the International team to get close. Around the green the two teams are about equal. Digging deeper, the Americans hit more GIRs and more fairways. Both of these skills are really important on this golf course. Our three best players (Scottie, Xander, and Collin) can all play five matches. if they each win 3.5 points that leaves just five points needed to capture the Cup.

I realize anything can happen in match play, but that's a huge advantage. I did find one category the International side was better than the Americans; par 5 scoring. Did I mention Royal Montreal only has TWO par 5s! On paper these matches are about as close as Scottie, Xander and the rest of the PGA TOUR. That being said, I believe the crowds will play a huge role in this. The Canadians bring an unbelievable energy to the Canadian Open every summer. With Mike Weir as the Captain, they are already showing how much they are prepared to step up in the practice rounds. It is raining today and they are filing into RMGC just to watch these guys possibly practice in the rain. The atmosphere is really incredible.

I also see a path to success through poor pairings. The United States was awful in Rome building successful foursome pairings. Jim Furyk was the Captain in Paris (2018) and we all know how that went. For some reason, golf betting geeks online know more about our player’s tendencies than our own leadership. Keep it close on Sunday and an International win is a real possibility especially with these crowds. Find a foursomes partner for Scottie, pair Xander and Patrick four times, create winning partnerships with Collin, and use our foursome weapons like Henley, Harman, and Finau appropriately. If you do, you're holding the Cup early on Sunday and I can beat the traffic home to the States!

Outright Winners - Presidents' Cup

How can you watch and not pick a winner? We know the US side is superior in many facets of the game, but here are my top three reasons why they win. Ten of the 12 US players are in the top 20 of the OWGR. Our team is incredibly deep and the Presidents' Cup forces each Captain to use more players. Team USA is better at hitting FAIRWAYS and GIRs. USA is twice as good on approach and slightly better in team putting. Six of our 10 experienced players (non-rookies) hold a winning record in the Presidents Cup. The crowd will keep it close, but in the end we win! Team USA -250

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Inside the ropes at the 2023 Genesis Invitational

Can't stop Ko

Look out for Lydia Ko! The recent AIG Women’s Open winner, Gold medalist, and Hall of Famer closed out the Kroger in Cincinnati with a final nine 30 and Sunday 63. Seven birdies and an eagle, Ko captured the Kroger by five strokes: her third title in as many starts. Lydia looks to let someone else win this week as the LPGA heads to Arkansas for the Walmart NW Arkansas Championship. Seventeen prior years at Pinnacle Country Club, this event is unique in a number of ways.

The Walmart is one of two 54-hole events left on the LPGA schedule. The ShopRite LPGA Classic is the other one. Round one starts on Friday at Pinnacle Country Club. The event started in 2007 and continues today on the same course. I love this venue because it really rewards iron play. A par 71 layout covering 6,438 yards sounds short by LPGA standards. Truth be told, it is not the longest course on tour, but you lose a bunch of length when you have FIVE par 3s. One of the main reasons strokes gained approach success makes sense is that nearly a third of the holes the women will play this week are irons off the tee.

Walmart NWA Championship starts in...

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The Pinnacle

The last eight holes have water in play and 15 of the 18 overall. Pinnacle provides a bunch of double bogey opportunities. Between the 62 bunkers and 6,000 sq/ft greens, PCC favors accuracy over length. Expert ball strikers have won here over the years. For a three-round contest, we will see some scoring. The average winning score over the past five years is 18 under par. Course conditions will be prime for a proximity contest. The region has been dry most of July, but we will see some damp weather this week. That should soften the surfaces some and allow the ladies to hit it close.

Ten of the top 20 in the Rolex World rankings are in Arkansas to compete for $3 million. The second of two events in mid-America, players who prefer to compete in the states better play aggressively this week. Following the Walmart, the women have a travel week as the tour heads to Asia for four weeks. By the time the tour returns, there is only one domestic event left to earn those valuable CME points. Remember, only the top 60 get to compete in the massive season ending cash grab in Naples.

The course setup has changed along with a couple of improvements to the layout. The overall length did not change, but the average par 4 dropped over 11 yards. More length was added to the par 5s and as a result will cause us to lean on par 4 scoring. Those nine holes present more birdie chances than before. Par 3 scoring will still lead the way though as using that metric has led to a playoff loss and runner-up pick in 2022, and predicting the winner of this event, Haeran Ryu, in 2023!

Three is the magic number

Pinnacle Country Club is hosting its eighteenth Walmart Championship. Looking back at the last couple of years, I see a straightforward path toward success. The top of each leaderboard excelled on approach and with their putter. Both make sense, and with rain in the forecast, we should see those players separate again. The last two top 10s gained an average of five strokes on the field with their iron game. Those same women hit 84% of their GIRs! By taking a look at strokes gained approach, proximity, and GIR percentage, we can narrow the field down considerably.

If 84% sounds impressive consider those same top 10s from the past two years have also hit 81% of their fairways. I wasn’t kidding when I said it was an accuracy contest. By shortening many of the par 4s, hitting the fairway just became all that more important. With rain predicted for Thursday into Friday, hitting the fairway will not just keep you out of the wet rough, but it will position you to attack these soft green surfaces. Creating as many birdie chances as possible is key to contending. The last two leaderboards averaged 16.5 sub-par scores over 54-holes. Don’t forget this tournament is only three rounds!

Pinnacle is a positional test. Past champions include some of the best ball strikers on tour. Once they get close to the hole, they also convert. The average gain on the greens by the 2022 and 2023 top 10s is over three strokes on the field. Our leaders will make their fair share of birdie opportunities with the flatstick. A perfect microcosm for the specific skill set is par 3 scoring. Those FIVE holes per round are a significant opportunity to sperate from the competition.

The average par 3 is 167 yards. Those five approach shots will not change over the three days. Get those iron shots dialed in, and you’ll be in the mix on Sunday. Pinnacle CC has always been the host venue, and those in the field with course history have an advantage on these shots as well. Knowing the layout with five approaches you can practice prior to Friday makes a huge difference. This is the main reason why the course has been so predictive over the years. There have been three multiple winners, and the same names always populate the top of these leaderboards.

Bentgrass greens and Zoysia fairways also benefit the best ball strikers. Even with a little wet weather, these hitting surfaces will play pure. The wind won’t be much of a factor as the forecast calls for 10-12 mph out of the north. Only eight holes run either north or south, so the field will face some cross winds on the other 10. Problem is that the average approach shot is around 150 yards. These women are good and when they get going at PCC are tough to stop.

I’m sticking with our predictive process at Pinnacle from the past two years. We have a win and a runner-up finish. Sometimes the best strategy is to keep it simple and believe in your research. For seventeen years, the same strategy and skill set has worked for the winner. There are a couple really strong players in the field playing well. I love this betting card and believe we have a great chance for number 11and back to back wins this week at the Walmart.

Outright winners - Walmart NW Arkansas Championship

How about one more trophy before Lexi Thompson retires from full time tournament golf. Thompson has two top 20 finishes in her last two events and two top 8 results in her last three Walmart starts. Lexi is ranked second in par 3 scoring for the LPGA. This is a perfect course for the planets to align in her final full time fall. Thompson is fifth in the field for GIRs and seventh on tour. Lexi is third in the field for SG:Putt. Lexi Thompson +2500

Injured for most of the summer, Sei Young Kim is back to her early season form that earned her eight top 20s in her first 10 starts. Kim has four top 20s at the Walmart in the last five years. Sei Young can make sub-par scores; she is ranked sixth in the field for BoB%. Par 3s? Kim is fourth in the field even with a mediocre middle to her season. Sei Young makes so many birdies because her putter converts on the greens. She is ranked second in the field for putts per GIR. Sei Young Kim +4000

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