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One year ago, we hit an incredible outright when Taylor Pendrith fired a closing round 67 to beat Ben Kohles by one shot in McKinney, Texas. Those who watched the final hole know just how wild a finish it was. THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson has been a bit of a birdie-fest since it moved to TPC Craig Ranch. The average winning score including Pendrith's victory is 25 under par. Finishing on a 552-yard par 5 sets you up for a memorable end, but Ben's blunder around the green holding a one-shot lead was not an ending anyone imagined at that point. Taylor took full advantage and captured the championship, but the reality is this venue needed an upgrade if it was to continue hosting the PGA TOUR.

The Byron Nelson is another one of these long-standing PGA TOUR events that is in dire need of schedule help. Scottie Scheffler is entered, but just two of the top 25 and seven of the top 50 in the OWGR are in Texas to play for $9.9 million. A smooth $1.782 million for first, the fact is elite players have three signature starts and two majors over the next seven weeks! God only knows what will happen to the schedule in 2026, but the demise of this event after 71 years is kind of sad. Don't get me wrong, the Mexico Open has its merits, but a tournament named for such a legendary player should represent more star power.

Change will do you good

TPC Craig Ranch has been lengthened by 155 yards. Tournament officials have added yardage to five holes (5, 8, 10, 11, 14). Four of the holes with additional yardage are par 4s and 66 yards were added to the par 5 fifth now making that test 635-yards long! The course was too easy for the TOUR and I'm not sure just adding yards will lower the final score. In three prior Craig Ranch editions, there were 84 bunkers and 13 holes with water in play. Those challenges did not seem to slow anyone down. Even the average cutline was -5.25 under par. More was needed to test the TOUR's second tier. The fairways have been narrowed and there's been the addition of several closely mown chipping areas around the green complexes.

A major renovation is happening after this week, but for now this is it. Vegas set the winning score over/under at -22.5. Not significantly different than the average winning score from the last four years, oddsmakers still believe this is a birdie bonanza and I agree. I'll get into the specific skills needed to win, but the big picture for the Byron Nelson has never really been smaller. These changes have been led by DA Weibring's group. Weibring has also done some work on TPC Deere Run where they host the John Deere Classic. Most birdie-fests beat you over the head with scorable 4s and 5s. The average par 4 has gained eight yards and is now 455 yards in length. The average par 5 jumped 22 yards and those three holes now average 584 yards.

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Keith's Keys 🗞️ A couple of key skills you can claim as your own at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. You can find complete explanations for each in the betting breakdown. Deep approach: Nearly one-third of the approach shots are over 200+ yards in length. Break out those mid and long irons. Texas wedge: Only one winner (Day) gained less than three strokes on the field with his flatstick the year they took home the trophy. Bombs away: TPC Craig Ranch is 155 yards longer than last year; length is going to help you score!

TPC Craig Ranch has some serious yardage, but the reality is length does not pose an issue for these guys. You've got to shrink the targets by making them smaller or firmer. It rained Monday in McKinney, and it is raining today. Conditions look awesome, but all the green tells us they have received plenty of precipitation over the last week to 10 days. The longest par 71 (7,569) they have played all year; the forecast calls for more wet weather throughout the tournament. Each day carries a 25% chance (or better) for rain and temperatures should rest quite nicely in the high 70s each day. The wind looks quite calm for all of the rain in the forecast. The breeze is expected to blow in the 8-12 mph range and starting Thursday out of the south. By Friday it will turn from the northeast and finish out of the southeast on Sunday.

THE CJ Cup Byron Nelson starts in...

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We've seen four editions from the Ranch and two of them have been won by KH Lee. Jason Day won in 2023 and Pendrith last May. The average winner's pre-tournament odds have been +10500. We can look down the betting board this week and that's always exciting. One year ago, we took home a triple digit winner! In fact, three of the four winners have come from +10000 or more territory. Sure, Scottie Scheffler (+280) is in the field, but this is not the best venue for him to use his superpowers and separate. Taylor Pendrith won with his driver and his putter. Certainly, Scheffler can send it off the tee, but we have plenty in the field that can out “putt” him. By beefing up the scorecard it will suit those with shorter odds (lower), but overall, this event comps much more closely to an American Express than it does the 3M Open.

The eventual push to a more difficult course will help the better players differentiate themselves, but for now, the middle tier can still set the standard. Beneath our defending champion Taylor Pendrith at +3000, there are four "favorites" besides Scottie; Sungjae Im, Ben An, Sam Burns, and Jordan Spieth! Far from murderers row you can see why this leaderboard has plenty of room for another triple digit contender. I'm going to repeat the 2024 formula for success and feature a little more length in our card than I did last year. The result should set us up for another massive sweat on Sunday.

Shoot-out

Grinders need not apply this week. This is a Monday scramble style scoring affair so make sure your pencil has a fresh eraser. No matter how low you go, with soft conditions you will probably need to go a little lower. Each of our outrights has brilliant birdie potential and this strength of field will keep them comfortable. Get ready for a classic shootout as we creep one week closer to Quail Hollow and our next McIlroy major venue!

In a shoot-out, scoring is the number one priority, BoB%, birdies gained, opportunities gained, and quite simply hitting as many GIRs as possible. After all, you are going to need 25+ sub-par scores to take home this trophy. Even if that's not the case due to a couple of tweaks, that scoring strategy will still put you on the path to winning. Any scoring statistic is a cumulative analytic. It requires input from multiple skill sets; for example, approach play and putting. When you look across this field for the best pure scorers there is a definitive list. Much like there is for the best iron players or drivers. It just takes multiple skills to be a birdie maker. True they added some difficulty to Craig Ranch, but the forecast has me believing this is the number one priority.

TPC Craig Ranch requires you to average at least five under par for four days. Certain players just cannot keep up and those guys are off our radar. Over one-third of the approach shots at TPC Craig Ranch travel over 200 yards. Long iron play can really separate you from the field. The three winners at Craig Ranch over the past four years gained an average of four strokes on approach. With the reduction in fairway landing area, proximity to the hole and opportunities gained become even more important. I'm far from saying this is an exclusively second shot golf course, but approach was an important factor before and has become even more important now. Especially when you consider the surfaces will be a little more receptive than usual.

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The field hit more than the TOUR average of fairways in the first four editions at Craig Ranch. Will pinching the landing areas significantly change that, we shall see. Narrowing the fairways or not, we still need guys who can move it from the tee box. Seven of the 11 par 4s measure over 450 yards, three par 3s stretch over 215 yards, and two of the par 5s are in that 550-560 range which require a great second shot of 225+ to reach in two. Those 12 long approaches get easier when you are closer to the green complex. If I’m playing from the rough, I would also wish to be closer to the target. With the wet conditions and added length, I'm increasing my focus on strokes gained off the tee. Not everyone has Taylor Pendrith’s length and that's a considerable advantage.

The layout at TPC Craig Ranch reminds me of a couple of her sister TPC courses; Scottsdale and Deere Run. PGA West (AMEX), Country Club of Jackson (Sanderson), and Grand Reserve (Puerto Rico) all test the middle tier in a very similar fashion. Aggressive scoring at these venues mirrors what you need to contend and win at the Byron Nelson. TPC Craig Ranch wouldn't be my first choice for a Dallas venue, but we have seen some decent Sundays unfold. The last three editions have been won by a single stroke. Knowing the scoring is tight, Bogey avoidance and a very positive birdie to bogey ratio are important. Scoring-fests generally don't allow you to make a double bogey. You can't lose one stroke let alone two to the field. Scrambling and saving par will play a role over the weekend.

Putting is the second most correlated factor after approach play. The four winners have gained an average of four strokes on the field. They also averaged 26.3 sub-par scores in the year they won. Again, Vegas set the o/u line at 22.5 under par. We require guys to make putts. Only Jason Day gained less than four strokes with his flatstick against the field. That's the blueprint for the shoot-out in Dallas. Generate as many legitimate birdie opportunities as possible by hitting a million GIRs. The greens are bigger than last week (average 6,778 sq/ft), but they are not large by any stretch of the imagination. I write this narrative every year and think Craig Ranch should play harder and it just doesn't. Fact is a 475-yard par 4 is a birdie hole. A three-wood then eight iron for the long hitters and driver seven for the middle of the road guys.

Middle tier talents on TOUR are good at those skills. That's why we have a bunch of outrights down the board to bet this week. Following Sunday, we'll be back to elite events for five of the next seven weeks. I'm going for a long shot or two on our anniversary of a wonderful triple digit win last year!

Outright Winners - THE CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Si Woo Kim is always an incredible ball striker. When the putter gets hot for KIm, look out for low scores. An eighth-place finish at the RBC Heritage, gaining over three strokes with his flatstick, this is one of those moments where we jump on the Si Woo super coaster. It won’t be a smooth ride, but Kim is an elite player who can separate from the contenders in this very average field. Si Woo Kim +3300

After six top 30 finishes in his last eight events, Jake Knapp is on more than just a quick heater. Knapp has effortless ball speed off the tee and has been awesome on approach all spring. The putter is solid too as Jake is ranked third in BoB% for this field. Throw in a third place at the Zurich and an eighth place one year ago at the Byron Nelson, and we have a long shot who certainly catches my attention. Jake Knapp +6000

Déjà Vu

What just happened in Houston..? The Chevron Championship concluded with a five-way playoff to determine the first major championship of the year. Mao Saigo somehow survived all of the surprises on Sunday to take the jump off the dock and into the pond between holes nine and 18 at Carlton Woods. Ruoning Yin almost hit that same dock during the playoff with her approach. Much has been said already about the design of this championship, so I will not continue the criticism. On a week where the PGA TOUR plays a team event, fans were looking for a great championship and they just didn't get one. A crazy ending, sure, but a major... not even close. It’s a shame on so many levels, but most of all for a struggling association to lose that opportunity and has yet to play 10 events in 2025; where do we go from here…

For their tenth event of the season, the LPGA is off to Utah, yes Utah, for the Black Desert Championship. A field of 144 players are heading to a brand-new venue that hosted its first ever PGA TOUR event back in October. I'm not sure if a golfer struck gold in the Black Desert, but nonetheless that's where we are headed for the second time in six months. The Black Desert Resort is located about two hours northeast of Las Vegas and just west of Zion National Park. The winning score in October was 23 under par. Lefty Matt McCarty took home the trophy fresh off a great run to close the season on the Korn Ferry Tour. I'm guessing the resort welcomes the attention from both tours as a marketing strategy. In any event, here's where we are headed for the LPGA's next championship.

Black Desert Championship starts in...

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The Black Desert Resort course will be set up as a par 72 scorecard stretching 6,629 yards. Don't get too caught up on the length, these ladies will be playing at 3,000 feet of elevation. That will reduce the carry by about 3.5% making the adjusted overall length just under 6,400 yards. The venue is only a couple years old so the women will be treated to an amazing week. The resort course is set in the middle of a lava pit. When the PGA TOUR played here in the fall, a number of the views were incredible. The course has 51 acres of fairway to hit. The LPGA ladies need about two thirds of that acreage to be successful. They don't hit it offline like the guys and I expect we will not see nearly as many shots played from the lava fields. The top 65 and ties will compete over the weekend for $3 million.

There were traces of rain on Monday, but overall, the course is dry and in perfect condition. Temperatures for the first three days will be in the mid-80s. Saturday night a front is moving in and will drop the high on Sunday afternoon by 20 degrees! The wind looks manageable all four days right around 8-10 mph. Saturday night might get a little wild as the forecast calls for a little rain and 20+ mph winds. The field will be done by the time that happens and picking out layers for Sunday's fit. They really should catch a nice week out in the Utah desert for this event. I doubt we'll see many fans take the trek to Utah, but the views above the landscape will be magnificent.

A quick refresher on the course, the greens are about 7,100 sq/ft (on average). That's a pretty large target for these women. Three holes have water in play, and there are 44 bunkers positioned all over the 18-holes. One of the most intimidating hazards is the lava, but a vast majority of these women will not hit it that far offline. The greens are covered in bentgrass, and what little rough they have is only 2" in length. McCarty's 23 under par was impressive, but 15 under par did not crack the top 10! With an average par 4 length of 383 yards (before any elevation adjustment), the women will score here. We just saw a similar field attack the Arizona desert back in late March. Those results and the final leaderboard at the Chevron will have an impact on our final card.

Mining for birdies

The strategy for Black Desert is very straightforward. It starts with an aggressive approach off the tee. Players with extra length will be grossly rewarded in the Utah desert. The scorecard looks long, but if the gals gain three/four percent of carry then all of the sudden, they can reach 525+ yard par 5s and hit scoring irons into 400-yard par 4s. Most of our card will include powerful players. I want ladies who like to hit driver deep and don't necessarily have the best accuracy. Fifty-one acres of fairway is twice the amount of short grass we usually see on tour. Let's be honest, if the guys could hit these fairways, the women who are much more accurate off the tee will be even more successful. Crank up the body and let that shaft out. So many of these longer hitters will be attacking these holes with wedges.

The approach game is going to be very similar to the Ford Championship. Scoring irons (GW, PW, 9, 8) will lead the charge. Proximity to the hole is important as we know who creates tons of birdie chances. Most players are great with their wedges, but who hits it close more often? Prioritize proximity, flash with your putter, and you have the basic recipe we're looking for again in the desert. The men faced a couple very long par 4s when they played here. They have this place much more forgiving for the LPGA. These ladies are very good, and some will score at will. Looking back at the Ford, LA Championship, and Chevron is going to give us a very good idea of who is converting the most birdie opportunities.

The best weapon when attacking a brand-new venue is the putter. That's the one club that translates to immediate success. Good putters roll the rock well everywhere and more importantly can read greens. We already know you will need a bunch of birdies, and you can't hit every approach to five feet. Much like the Bermudagrass specialists last week at Carlton Woods, now we are looking for the best on bentgrass. With 144 "rookies" in the field there is an edge on the greens. A deeper look into who putts well on desert courses with bentgrass or Bent-Poa greens leaves us with another list to cross reference with the approach numbers.

Power, precision from the fairway, and putting are the foundation of this week's card. By looking at various leaderboards from similar resort venues, I also feel we have done the homework necessary to cash a successful card. In the end, model all you want, but if you cannot break down a course from a professional experience POV, then it will be tough to learn who has the best chance to succeed. I loved studying this venue in the fall and again now. The course won't earn any architecture "favorites" posts, but Weiskopf is a wizard at creating excellent risk-reward holes. That element is often overlooked and will add to the entertainment this week in Utah.

Outright winners - Black Desert Championship

Iwai's rookie campaign reminds me of Hye Jin Choi's first season a couple of years ago. She finished second that year in the (rookie) voting behind Jeeno Thitikul! Choi is a very solid ball striker who is learning how to win. She's first in the field for par 4 scoring and the combination of her driver and putter on a generous birdie-fest layout looks really attractive to me. Ninth at the Chevron doesn't hurt either. Hye Jin Choi +3300

Regular LPGA players have struggled to get starts. Lindy Duncan only has five results in 2025. Three of those finishes were in the top 12 and she was one of the four who lost in the Chevron playoff. Duncan has really struck the ball well this season and is scoring as a result. Lindy is ranked top 20 on tour in driving distance, ball striking, scoring, par 4 scoring and BoB%. While she's firing on all cylinders let's back her at a nice value. Lindy Duncan +5500

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