King of Wishful Thinking 💬
King's courtORLANDO, FL - It has been a tale of two seasons on the PGA TOUR in 2025. Fire up a signature event and we have a murderer’s row of major style winners, Hideki, Rory, and Ludvig. Host a regular season FedEx Cup contest and all of the winners have come from outside +6000 on the odds board. Our last two winners, Brian Campbell and Joe Highsmith, would test even the most avid golf fan’s player knowledge. If we step back for a moment and look at the last two seasons, there have been 11 signature tournaments and 28 regular events on the January to September FedEx TOUR schedule. In the 28 non-signature events, 28 winners have come for outside +3000 on the Monday odds board. On the signature side, eight of 11 events were won by the favorites or just outside the top of the betting markets (under +2500). Building a separated schedule has truly created two competitive worlds on the PGA TOUR. I doubt anyone would have guessed the trend would be this significant when the LIV reactionary calendar was built, but it is pretty cool to share this perspective. If you love the big names taking down elite tournaments and the longshot stories stealing the events in-between, then the fans are truly winning when it comes to the evolution of the professional game. Arnold's majorThe Arnold Palmer Invitational is one of the most storied tournaments on the PGA TOUR. To win the King's red cardigan is a badge of honor almost as big as the crest on the winner's sweater. For the fifth time in six weeks, I will be covering the PGA TOUR on-site. A return to Orlando is a welcome opportunity. The town, Mr. Palmer, and this facility have played a significant role in the development of my professional career. For five years, I worked across the lake from the Bay Hill Club and Lodge at Isleworth Country Club. I have watched and played Bay Hill many times over the years. There's a reason why Palmer's paradise in Orlando is one of the more predictive courses on the PGA TOUR. Here's the main reason why; seven holes repeat themselves throughout the layout. Take a moment and look at the overhead on Google maps. We start with a sharp dogleg on number one. There's a sharp dogleg on 10. Three plays as a dogleg left around water and four is a long, straight uphill par 5. Eleven is a dogleg left around water and 12 is a straight uphill par 5. This happens again and again around the routing. Following both uphill par 5s is a short positional par 4. The pivotal betting point here, if you play some of the template holes at Bay Hill well, you tend to play a majority of them well. The Bay Hill Club and Lodge is a 27-hole facility with names for each of the nine-holes. The Champion/Challenger combination is a par 72 scorecard covering 7,466 yards. Ten tough par 4s with 50% of them measuring over 450 yards. The longest set of par 3s on TOUR represent one of the primary scoring hurdles. Over the last five years, the average winning score is nine under par. In a signature field of 72 players, I’m not sure how much full field scoring data from the Arnold Palmer Invitational matters, but we do have a cut this week. The top 50 and ties and anyone within 10 shots of the lead play the weekend for $20 million. Last year, 11 players were cut from the weekend including Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood, Nicolai Højgaard, and Adam Scott. Along with the 36-hole cut, API’s winner receives $4 million just as Ludvig Åberg did for winning the Genesis Invitational. Over the last decade, the average winner's odds at the API are +7600 (76-1). Four times in that decade, the winner's odds were +5500 (55-1) or higher. Fun fact, the last time we saw pre-tournament odds in the 300s at API was 2013. Tiger was +300 heading into the tournament. Of course, Woods won for the eighth time that week. Another testimony to Scottie’s greatness, his odds are now comparable to Tiger at one of Woods' most successful venues. API starts in...Palmer’s kingdom is a power player's paradise. The fourth largest greens on TOUR, the field has larger than average targets. The “Bay Hill Bounce” is in full effect this week. Orlando has not received any rain since we were here in January for the PGA Show. The forecast is perfect for Palmer punishment. Firm and fast conditions will be the standard along with a strong breeze in the afternoon on Thursday and Sunday. The wind could kick up more so make sure you use the real-time weather link in the newsletter. Temperatures are in the mid-70s for three rounds and mid-60s on Thursday. Eighty-four bunkers surround the landing areas, and six different penalty areas come into play on nine different holes. We all know the final three have massive trouble and usually play a role in determining our winner. Back on Bermudagrass putting surfaces, but the greens at Bay Hill use a hybrid strain that does create a very smooth/slick surface. You won’t see nearly as much grain influence and primarily why I weigh Bermudagrass the least at Bay Hill of all the Florida venues. Just like PGA National’s Champion, we must expect some serious scoring volatility. Eagle through double bogey is definitely in play across every hole.
Mt final on-site observations have led me to the following outright card. Tournament officials are under pressure to not give up another 59. We can’t have Deacon and Arnold Palmer’s legacy softened for how to present a championship course. One last item before the winner breakdown. The last three API winners have won the Masters a month later. Plenty of pundits compare other venues to Augusta National. For some reason this course tends to fly under the radar. Please keep that nugget in mind when we travel down Magnolia Lane in 36 days. Eight timesThe blueprint to beating the best players in the world at Bay Hill is proven by the list of past champions. Take eight-time winner Tiger Woods. Scoring at API comes down to great long iron play, a solid short game, and consistent Bermudagrass putting. If I remember correctly, Tiger dropped a couple key putts on the eighteenth hole. Mr. Palmer always wanted to host a US Open at his course. Since the event is played in June, that wasn't going to happen in Florida. Instead, Arnie decided to make changes in 2009 and created his own major championship in March. Any event that hosts 28 of the top 30 players in the world and the winning score is in the single digits: that's a fan favorite. Walking the grounds, there's a couple observations I can add to what the other handicappers are writing about from home. Why is long iron acumen so important on the Champion and Challenger nines? The best long iron players can stop the ball quicker than their competitors. Bay Hill is an absolute brick right now. High launch is mandatory from long range. I have tipped the data scales very heavily toward the best long iron artists. I know that means Scottie, Rory, Xander, and Ludvig will pop-up, but who else? Tyrell Hatton, Bryson, and Frankie Molinari have all won here in the last six years. Remember Marc Leishman in majors? Of course you do, and his long iron game was the reason why. The top 10s take this skill even a step further. And I thought the rough was bad at Torrey, ha, ha, ha. That's a joke compared to this lettuce. This ryegrass overseed would make Timothée Chalamet's hairstylist jealous. If you lack ball speed, I seriously don't know how you plan to contend if you don't make 85+ feet of putts every round. The best iron players from long range also have the most speed at impact. These men have a slight chance of getting the ball on the green surface from off the fairway. Those green surfaces are definitely showing the "Bay Hill Bounce." The effect of rock-hard green surfaces receiving any approach shot, even from a pitching wedge. Balls will be bouncing all across these greens. There won't be many smiling players during Smylie's happy hour on Friday. Practice rounds have been methodical based upon the bounce. It's tough to get around this place. Bay Hill has always been an important Bermudagrass putting venue. In recent years, the impact of strokes gained putting has decreased and the value of approach and short game have increased. Understanding the evolution of these putting surfaces it all makes sense. I can remember putting these greens 20 years ago and they were extremely grainy. The new strand of TifEagle Bermuda they are using is so smooth at this height, the grain loses some of its effect until very late in the day. With a 72-man field, there are very few players who are competing at that time. I'm favoring course history, and success in Florida, but not Bermudagrass putting. Bay Hill is one of those places where players make about the TOUR average when they roll it from outside 5'. The King's court is definitely a par 4 test. Scoring on the 4s will allow you to climb the leaderboards at Bay Hill. Pay attention to this next insight. Everyone is going to model for par 5 scoring and that's great, but with 13 of the top 15 players in the world competing, you're going to need a way to separate and par 5s are NOT the answer. Past champions gain more strokes against the field on the 3s than the 5s. With an average winning score of about 10 under par, two-thirds of your birdies are going to come from the 5s. That will be the same for every player; how will you distance yourself from the field? Bay Hill hosts the longest set of par 3s on TOUR. The three toughest holes this week relative to par are 2, 17, and 14 - all par 3s. Play those four holes even par for the week and you will 100% gain on the group. Twenty sub-par scores, that is what the last 10 winners have averaged when they won. The winning score over the last decade is 12 under par. Bogey avoidance is another factor we cannot forget. I would even go one step further and call it "major" bogey avoidance. This course is going to be a brute and will require a savvy short game to save par and score on the par 5s. There are 55 greenside bunkers at Bay Hill. Bunker play has always been an influence on the final leaderboard. When I took a closer look at the green surrounds, I noticed one little detail. The rough is longer the closer you get to the hole. Increasing the difficulty around the green complexes will also cause around the green acumen to impact a player's final score. It sounds redundant at this point, but Bay Hill is a great big difficult test. Over 30% of the average approach shots at Bay Hill will be struck from over 200 yards. Take a quick look at the best strokes gained ranges by par and you can see why.
Not many courses have a field average under 60% for hitting fairways AND GIRs. Are you still trying to figure out why Rory and Scottie always play well here? They both possess the complete package of skills needed to win. With Scheffler at +350 and McIlroy at +700, I'll play them in the live markets. As for the rest, keep reading below for my outright favorites. Outright Winners - Arnold Palmer Invitational Is it time to play?The LPGA has one more week over in Asia before they return to the United States and start the majority of their schedule. Our next event to handicap begins play on March 27(!), so enjoy this one. We won't see the players for another three plus weeks after the Blue Bay LPGA concludes on Sunday. If the calendar seems sporadic to us, imagine being a regular LPGA player who does not qualify for these Asia events. The last "somewhat" full field event was the LOTTE Championship that ended on November 10, 2024. Since then, there has been ONE full field LPGA event; the Founders Cup. One tournament in 137 days! I know the LPGA is a global tour, but these spring and fall runs to Asia severely limit the development of the LPGA domestically. The last two events, and this one, are limited field events. I know the tour lost an event the third week in March, but that sponsor didn't pay them for last year. I'm pretty sure scheduling that event again was overly optimistic. Nelly Korda has played eight tournament rounds in the last 102 days!! I love the LPGA, and I just cannot wait until the season GETS started. The Blue Bay is on late at night, but please take advantage, we won't see any of these players again for some time. Check the countdown timer below... we start on WEDNESDAY NIGHT one more time. Blue Bay LPGA starts in...Back to the BayFrom Singapore, we head to just off the coast of Vietnam. The Jian Lake Golf Course is in China, but we are about as far away from the center of the Republic as we can get. Resting just off the southeast corner of mainland China sits a resort island. The Jian Lake Blue Bay course was built in 2012. Designed with championships in mind, the par 72 layout covers 6,712 yards. The Blue Bay first came to Jian Lake in 2014. Our defending champion is Bailey Tardy. This was Tardy's first LPGA win and the first time the Blue Bay was contested in five years. Bailey blew away the field by four strokes, her 15 under par total was impressive. The average winning score over the two lives of this event is 10.5 under par. Past champions include major winners Sei Young Kim, Shanshan Feng, and Minjee Lee. Overall, it is a really tough test of golf. Twelve holes have water in play and the course is covered in bunkers. I counted 110 in my research, but the number does not convey how much sand is really on the golf course. If you miss the green grass, I guarantee you are either in water or sand. Four of the previous five tournaments before Bailey were one by a single stroke. It reminds me of TPC Sawgrass and the amount of scoring entertainment it can provide. Looking back through the previews, recaps, and results you can tell this event has a major championship feel. The course has a stereotypical collection of four par 3s (average length 172 yards), four par 5s (avg. 537 yards), and 10 par 4s (avg. 387 yards). Only four of the pars 4s measure over 400 yards and the par 5s are reachable. We finally have some decent weather for the LPGA women. Back-to-back weeks of wet weather on the other side of the world has to be frustrating. That might be why we are only seeing seven of the top 20 in the Rolex World Rankings compete. This event carries the largest field on this Asia run (108 players) and there's a cut to the top 65 and ties! Those who do play the weekend will earn a piece of the $2.5 million dollar purse. The winner receives $375,000 and two full weeks off to get home and enjoy it! The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 80's and winds blowing in the 10-14 mph range out of the northeast. Jian Lake is on an island, so those wind values are probably going to be a little low against the actual breeze. The course does not run up to the water's edge, but it is very close. Above average weather on a perfectly manicured Paspalum landscape should provide an entertaining weekend of golf. This is your last chance to catch the women for a couple of weeks. Let's grab our first women's win of the year and then we can celebrate for a couple weeks much like the winner. Looking for trouble..?Jian Lake is the toughest test these women will see on this spring Asia tour. Manufactured from dirt and a whole lot of sand, it is very much as if AI created a course. Target practice for those who make the cut, our list of past champions is impressive. Let's face it an average winning score right around 10 under par is a legit test. What little rain is forecasted for the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will only help the players hold the putting surfaces. Speaking of those slick surfaces, for the first time this year, we won't be playing on Bermudagrass. The greens are covered in Platinum Paspalum. The rest of the course is Seaside Paspalum across the rough, fairways, collars, etc. You know how the ball rolls/plays on that spongy surface. It makes around the green play a little easier and putting slow. There isn't much rough around the fairways, so where you do land on green turf off the tee you will see a decent lie in the grass. Jian Lake requires that you keep your ball out of trouble. Strokes gained T2G (SG:T2G) and strokes gained scoring (SG:Score) are two great measures for who has placed their ball in position for the first two months of the LPGA season. Thirteen of the 14 tee shots bend and all of them present either sand or water off the tee. The card says 6,700+, but two of the par 4s offer options and can be set up to be reachable. We also have four medium length par 5s. The most popular approach range is 150-175 yards. A little on the longer side, the elite players can differentiate themselves easily from the field quickly. Similar to last week, I'm prioritizing approach play significantly and proximity again. Last year's top 10 were all solid attacking these greens. With all of the sand, scrambling and sand play makes a ton of sense. Picking outrights is like splitting hairs. A couple of key up and downs in the middle of round will mean the difference between contending and winning. Holes five through eight are great example of what this course can challenge you with. Two tough par 4s, then a medium length par 3, followed by a reachable par 5. All four have water in play and can easily allow a sub-par score or create complete havoc. The blend of the two is very similar to last week; just a little tougher across all 18-holes. Tough tee shots also await these women. I mentioned the fairways move a bunch, but they are also narrower than the LPGA average. When you consider all of the trouble off the tee Jian Lake presents having players who routinely hit the fairway and possess length gives us an advantage. A couple of these par 4s can be significantly shortened. Not as many as Sentosa Golf Club, but enough to give these players a very varied par 4 test. I love a layout that presents many versions of one par type. The par 3s average 177 yards and present a similar test across all 18-holes. The 4s however are fun at Jian Lake. From the 425 yard fifth guarded by water to the 297 yard fifteenth, players must perform with a variety of skill sets to score. Bailey Tardy was eight under on the fours a year ago. The complimentary skill set she showed was a large key to winning. Balance your bogey avoidance everywhere with sub-par scoring on the par 5s and you'll be in the conversation come Sunday afternoon. We are going to wake up with a winning card on Sunday morning. I like this tournament. It adds a bit of swagger to an otherwise always wet and rather mundane spring Asia run. Keep a close eye on those leaderboards as double bogey trouble does lurk around almost every corner. Each new season starts out with learning the new player trends. Four tournaments under our belt in 2025, I have a good idea where the field is going. That knowledge is going to get us more than close to the winner's circle this weekend in China. Outright winners - Blue Bay LPGA
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