Jupiter, We Have a Problem 🌴
Showtime in JupiterPALM BEACH GARDENS, FL Tiger's team is back for another match under the lights inside the SoFi Center. Truth be told, this is probably a good thing for the boys from southeast Florida. Certain team members need reps to help them become more competitive in the league. Match 5 takes place tonight between the Los Angeles Golf Club and Jupiter Links Golf Club at 7:00 pm ET on ESPN. Jupiter Links jumped out to an early 2-0 and 3-1 lead in Match 4 last week against the New York GC. Believe it or not, it was the first time JLGC had ever held a two-point lead inside SoFi! Unfortunately, New York scored seven unanswered points over the final 11 holes. Ouch. The PGA TOUR loves to talk about competitive parity. The oddsmakers believe Los Angeles has a 62% chance of winning this evening based upon the opening moneyline (LAGC -165). Match 5 marks our fourth week of competitive play in Season 2. The standings have not started to separate quite yet, but we are starting to see some standout performances. Los Angeles lost their first match against Boston Common Golf. If they plan to repeat their Season 1 number one seed in the SoFi playoffs, they cannot afford to lose tonight. If Jupiter Links loses, well, they will not have won a match since January 27th of last year! LAGC is heavily favored by the books, but this is simulator golf. Los Angeles is without their best player, Tommy Fleetwood, as he just competed in Dubai this past weekend. The mid-season matches are where teams start to make their case for postseason play. It's time to break down Match 5. The format, course, and starting lineupsJoe (Idone) and Keith will be in attendance tonight, covering the competition. It is my third match on-site and Joe's fifth! Yes, the TGL Show's official expert is a resident of the SoFi Center. TGL will tell you Tiger Woods will be on the field and mic'd up for our education and entertainment. Following the broadcast side of the action last week, I admit his insights were very good. It helps when there are more voices than just Matt Barrie carrying the coverage. Along those lines, Roberto Castro has been a great addition to the television cast. Castro played a large role in the development of TGL gameplay. Roberto's company (Captech) designed the software TGL uses to compete. Replacing Tiger for the second time is Akshay Bhatia. Bhatia was a breath of fresh air for Jupiter Links in Match 4. At 23 years old, indoor simulator golf should be right up his alley. Los Angeles rolls out the same lineup they used in Match 2, and in the same order. The starting lineups are listed below. TGL is introducing a new hole this evening. Gil Hanse's second design is called The Last Toll. Everyone has been asking for Golden Tee style challenges that test the players shot making skills, and this apocalyptic design does just that! Similar to the tee shot challenge on Stinger, there is a large, dilapidated bridge sitting directly between the tee and the green of this 240+ yard par 3. Players are forced to shape their tee shots left to right through the remains of two stone bridge supports. Right away, my mind starts to think about playability. Sahith Theegala and Kevin Kisner are the first two TGL players who have to manipulate their ball through the uprights. We know Kisner is great at hitting objects in the SoFi Center; this may be a golden opportunity to lean on the talented Theegala in Triples. These two teams met in Match 2 of Season 1. LAGC was up 5-0 after four holes. They collected two hammers early and never looked back. Los Angeles won eight and nine and was up 8-1 after Triples. The West Coast boys then took four of the six Singles holes. It was the same lineup, in the same order. Woods, Kisner, and Homa were taken out behind the woodshed and left there. Is there any chance the result tonight will be any different? Playing two weeks in a row will help Jupiter Links. Getting off to a hot start last week 3-1, will also give them confidence. Is that enough resolve to take down one of the best TGL teams? Here's my take. Match breakdownMatch 5It doesn't take a TGL technical designer to see the edge in the matchup. The books alone have given us the play card for Match 5. Los Angeles GC is one of, if not the, most accurate teams in TGL. They were ranked second in fairways hit and secured more than two-thirds of the GIR in Season 1. Tonight's course is an accuracy contest. The Match 5 layout presents a stern test off the tee. Players are hitting 63% of the fairways (on average) across these 15 holes. Combine that with an average GIR rate of 62%, and each team's proximity will be tested. Jupiter Links was accurate last week against NYGC. That trend will have to continue. The odds considerably favor LAGC because their team consists of players who will hit the fairway and green match after match and week after week on the PGA TOUR. Max Homa and Kevin Kisner have not been massive accuracy merchants in recent months. Digging in a little deeper, JLGC still struggles with its Hammer play. In their first match of Season 2, they earned a -3 point differential. The one Hammer point they did win was a declined challenge. Tiger Woods threw the Hammer further proving JLGC doesn't see the real benefits to those double-down moments. Both teams have a fair amount of experience playing these holes. Each saw five of the 15 last year in their Season 1 match, and each has seen at least seven of the holes on tonight's card already in Season 2. A couple of the Triples tee shots certainly catch my attention and may provide an opportunity for us to cash in on better odds. Theegala versus Kisner on the brand new Last Toll, and home LA hole Showtime. Hole 9 is a 588-yard par 5 and belongs to Hollywood's hitters. Sahith's average driving distance in the SoFi arena is 320 yards; Kevin's is 288! When the odds get posted, I'm going to take LAGC in the Triples to lead after 6 or 9 holes. I would favor 9, but it will all depend on the odds. As for the Singles, here's a quick breakdown.
The Los Angeles Golf Club is winning Match 5. If you don't care for the match odds, I recommend breaking the match up into parts. I'm going to take one (or two) of the following prop bets to bolster my bank account. LAGC to lead after 6 or 9 holes, to earn the most points in Triples, most points in Singles. Which ones exactly? That will depend on the odds once they are posted on Tuesday afternoon. My preference will be anything with a positive moneyline or as close to it (-110, -120, etc.) on the negative half. Betting card - Match 5 Winner* - Odds can change from site to site. Make sure you shop around before making each bet. Even though a bet is listed, it may have changed since the newsletter was published. FanDuel (FD), Caesars (CS), DraftKings (DK), BetMGM (BM), bet365 (B3), Bet Rivers (BR), Fanatics (FN) Do you want to be a better bettor?Become a member of Read The Line today!
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