Superbowl week

ATLANTA, GA

Lydia Ko’s victory at the AIG Women’s Open marks our third straight year of double-digit wins. Adam Scott came close to our eleventh outright, but alas his putter decided against it. It was tough to leave Castle Pines, but Atlanta awaits and $100 million is on the table. Back to the heat and humidity, at least we have a new golf course to break down. The Tour Championship takes place at historic East Lake Golf Club. Home to Bobby Jones, the lost design of Donald Ross has finally been restored.

We witnessed Andrew Green’s work at Oak Hill last spring for the PGA and Congressional for the KPMG Women’s PGA in 2022. Green also renovated a local facility around the corner from my house. A disciple of Donald Ross' thinking, I have a very good feel for his architecture. Using aerials from the 1940’s, East Lake overhead gave him the vision for what we will see on Thursday.

Tour Championship starts in...

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Seeing green

Read The Line members know why we win. On-site, PGA expert coverage cannot be replaced. Weeks like this only further enhance our advantage. Watching the season’s best prepare to attack this newly renovated masterpiece is extremely valuable. I have walked the entire course, talked with players and caddies, and spoken with longtime Tour Championship officials. The changes are significant, and really emphasize what Donald did to originally challenge Jones and others, but with a modern twist.

Green added 144 yards and one stroke. The par 71 layout measures 7,490. The fourteenth hole has been lengthened by 60 yards and transitioned to a par 5. The new look is eye-catching. Gone are all of the Bermudagrass hallways of trees and rough. Another clue that Green really gave this a facelift was the overall length. Andrew lengthened 14 holes, but he also shortened three. The most noticeable change is the par 4 eighth hole. The 455 yard brutal par 4 along East Lake is now a 390 yard driv-able theater. The green has been reconfigured and the bunkering a little more emphasized.

All of these changes will really make the players think. This was a bomber's paradise, and although that's still true there are more than a couple examples (like eight) where being well-rounded will outweigh ball speed. Eight holes have water in play and four bunkers were added to make the total 78. This week is a tough one to handicap. Five players start 10 shots behind Scottie Scheffler. After seven wins, THE PLAYERS, a green jacket, and a gold medal, I feel like he should be 10 back! In any event, the FedEx Cup format uses starting strokes. Our card will be limited this week due to the nature of the competition. Most of our bets will be on the 72-hole stroke play side (w/out starting strokes). We won with Viktor last year and look to do it again.

The weather is hot again. Unlike Denver, we have plenty of humidity; Memphis conditions all over again. Heat indexes up over 100 degrees and Bermudagrass almost everywhere. The grow in from the 11 month renovation is “almost” complete. It was a herculean effort to get this far, but the greens look very grainy along with the closely mown surrounds. East Lake was always known for its rough, and it is once again living up to the player's expectations. The wind will blow under 10 mph and there's a chance of storms in the afternoons. I believe the weather will not be much of a factor, but keep an eye on it with our real-time link.

The total purse for these 30 men is $100 million. Twenty-five million to first, the competitors this week have also earned a spot in all four majors next year by being here. Scottie may think this format is "silly," but if he wins $25 million, I doubt he will give it back. Plenty of players have Presidents' Cup aspirations and this is their last proving ground. I love the new walk and sensational views. The fun really kicks off on Wednesday afternoon with the Creator Classic. A 9-hole event pairing popular YouTube golfers in an 8-hole tournament with a shoot-out on 18. I had some fun and posted my ​Power Rankings​ for the event on the RTL website.

Even if you don't care for any of these golfers, I would watch. They are playing the entire back nine and will give you a great preview of what's to come in round one!

Read The Line recap 🗞️ Twelve players have grabbed multiple playoff wins in the same year. That's a very high number when you consider the FedEx Cup playoffs are only 17 years old. Viktor Hovland did it last year by putting on a two-week ball striking clinic. Hovland gained 9.6 strokes off the tee and on approach combined at ELGC. Another three strokes with the putter, and his 19 under par total was the lowest gross score we have seen in sometime. I know the course is different, but the path to victory remains the same. At Bobby Jones' home you must hit fairways and greens.

Bouncing around the room

The Tour Championship is complicated, so let's keep this simple. This is a brand new golf course. As a PGA Professional who has experienced a "grow in," these players will have their hands full. Based upon the course conditions as I see them on property, here are the priorities players will need to focus on in order to score, and contend.

• The greens are rock hard. The field consists of the 30 best players this year. No wraparound points, these guys earned their spot from the Sentry in Kapalua to the BMW in Denver. Watching approach shots, players are struggling to get anything longer than a wedge to stop. And forget it from the Bermudagrass rough. GIRs are going to be a huge commodity. One trait that carries over from the old East Lake GC is long iron approaches. Forty-four percent of iron shots come from 200+. The ability to attack from long range is a skill and one that will help you separate this week.
• Many long iron approaches will just bounce through the putting surfaces. I'm definitely boosting Bermudagrass around the green acumen. You'll hear this theme a bunch, but this place has not grown in yet. The lies around the greens are dicey. The rough is long and gnarly and that's better than the tight ones. The approaches feel soft and the grass density is thin. That's a very tough combination. East Lake historically has not been a big short game course, but I would take players who can save shots on Bermudagrass.
• Another aspect of the grow in most will miss is the grain. Bermudagrass greens tend to be grainy after years of maturation. Brand new ones have even more grain. Bermudagrass putters will have an edge. Players are going to miss a bunch of putts inside 6'. This may help some of the weaker putters in the field as good flatstick aficionados will also miss a couple. Whoever wins the FedEx Cup or 72-hole stroke play tournament will have earned it with their putter.
• Scoring opportunities will be there. The field gained an extra par 5 and the eighth hole was shortened significantly. That's eight more birdie chances for those in good form. I want BoB% players on this course. Bogeys are coming with these firm bounces. Anyone that averages a ton of sub-par scores will have a better chance against the field.
• Hitting the fairway was a leading skill in previous Tour Championships. Keeping the ball free from the rough leads to more GIRs. The same holds true this year. Some pundits may allude to the fact more fairway grass was added to the course (+5 acres). Guess what? So was more length. Over 100 yards of driver holes were added to the scorecard. Over the last ten years, winners have gained an average of 3.6 OTT on the field of 30. Include guys who can hit the fairway with some length this week.
• My last considerations were Par 4 scoring, still 11 of those. I also want players who can avoid bogeys and when they do miss fairways, miss by a small margin (good drives gained).

Remember, I prefer the 72-hole stroke play tournament. The odds are just too short on the starting strokes side. I listened to the press conferences and watched them all practice. You can devise a number of winning scenarios, but only one really adds up in my mind. Now the trick is how can we maximize our return on an odd tournament week..?

Outright Winners - Tour Championship

Change the entire course and you will not sway Xander Schauffele's confidence around East Lake. In seven starts at ELGC, Schauffele has finished low gross three times. Xander has a win here and seven top seven results! Xander is second to Scottie in many stats, but not in 200+ yard proximity and Bermudagrass putting. Xander leads Scottie in long par 3 and par 4 scoring. ELGC has plenty of those. Xander Schauffele +230 (FedEx Cup)

Playing new courses will cause mistakes. Sam Burns makes a ton of birdies, and thats what we need this week to contend; tons of sub-par scores. Twelfth at 3M, a perfect driving test on TOUR. Burns' driver is good these days. Fifth at the St. Jude, "Bermuda Burns" can definitely roll the rock on these brand new grainy greens. Runner-up at the BMW, Sam showed confidence in his ball striking on a very difficult accuracy test at altitude. Sam Burns +2200 (no strokes)

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Inside the ropes at the 2023 Genesis Invitational

Walk of Fame

Lydia Ko once considered quitting professional golf. With a three under par 69 on Sunday at St. Andrews, she walked across the Swilcan Bridge to make history. Birdie on the last, Ko captured the AIG Women's Open and our tenth outright win of the year. That's now three straight years of double-digit outright victories. Twelve in 2022, 14 in 2023, and now 10 (and counting) in 2024! With five holes to play we had Nelly Korda in first and Ko in second. Lydia won and solidified her place in the Hall of Fame she earned by winning the gold medal in Paris. We love to win, but when you can cheer for a player like Lydia, it's even better. Sunday was the twenty-first win of her storied career.

The schedule carries on and back to the United States. New England is our destination as the inaugural FM Global Championship is being played just south of Boston, Massachusetts. Twelve of the top 25 in the Rolex World Ranking are coming to TPC Boston. Just the second LPGA event ever to be played at a TPC facility this is one place I am very familiar with. I spent 10 years of my PGA Professional career working in New England. I have played TPC Boston many times and volunteered at several PGA TOUR events played on the property. Seventeen PGA TOUR events in total have been contested at this original Arnold Palmer design (2002). Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon collaborated on a face lift in 2007 and the course we see today.

FM Global Championship starts in...

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Global tour

A field of 144 players will be competing for a serious purse; $3.8 million. First-place receives $570,000. I guess that's why so many ranked players traveled the week after an incredibly tough week in Scotland. The forecast looks better than St. Andrews for rounds one, two and three. Saturday night calls for some rain and into Sunday morning. The Boston region has been wet. TPC Boston is very healthy. The rough is thick and the greens are ready to roll. Temperatures will be warmer, but this is late summer in New England. Highs are forecasted in the low 70s and thankfully the wind will be about one third as strong as it was in Scotland!

TPC Boston will play to a par 72 scorecard measuring 6,598 yards. There are 58 bunkers on the course and 10 holes where water comes into play. Having played the venue several times, this walk through the woods is beautiful and treacherous. A couple penalty areas are pretty prominent, but most of them blend into the forest. More like native areas they extend in and out of the woods. The course can play long as many of the approaches are uphill or over a forced carry. Players will need a great combination of power and precision here. Each hole becomes its own signature setting along this design. Even though these women will be seeing it for the first time, I believe scoring will reach the mid-teens with this forecast.

The greens will be receptive and many of these players can handle 6,600 yards. A number of LPGA stars like Megan Khang have Massachusetts ties. She (and others) will want to perform in front of a home crowd. Not to mention, Khang also needs to keep her game in shape for the Solheim Cup. This event is going to have a unique feel. Not many LPGA tournaments are played on a course this size. TPC Boston is a big property with rolling hills and rugged rock edges. Navigate the native landscape and you'll be in position on Sunday. This venue never felt like a TPC course to me. Wait until you experience the character it displays on TV this weekend.

Native winner

TPC Boston requires a beautiful blend of power, patience, and accuracy. A perfect example is the second hole. A reachable par 5 if you take a risk off the tee. Place the ball down the right-hand side of the fairway, and you can reach the green in two. That green complex is guarded by a large pond. Play conservative off the tee down the left and now that approach over water increases. That's the perfect summary of what these women will face. You can take advantage of several holes on this course if you are accurate and long off the tee. I see it as an edge that will definitely help players separate.

The average green size is 5,500 sq/ft. Small by LPGA tour standards, approach play is going to be the biggest factor in determining our outright card. I'm measuring proximity to the hole, GIRs, and strokes gained approach. Blend those three stat lines together and we get the best iron players. Many of these green complexes are above the fairway and play uphill. Three of the par 3s play over native areas. Forced carries come up routinely on a course that feels as far away from the water as you can be. Most approaches are going to fall in the scoring section of a player's bag. Shots from 125-175 are the sweet spot and call for anything from a wedge to five or six iron.

Faxon and Hanse "collabed" in a couple places. Their green complexes tend to have rough edges and look very natural. Think of Augusta National and then picture the exact opposite. Bunker edges are frayed and hairy, rocks are incorporated and the use of natural hazards on this layout is quite ingenious. Around the green acumen will be needed by these women. The terrain varies and players will need to get creative on many of these short scoring shots. Average short game players will be at a distinct disadvantage.

TPC Boston also boasts some beautiful putting surfaces. Although aesthetically pleasing to the eye, they have outcroppings and tiered areas. Proximity to the hole on approach will keep you from three putting. Hello(!) Brad Faxon helped design them. Brad was one of the best putters on TOUR when he played. He knows a thing or two about challenging golfers on the green. I really think you will need to score. Putting becomes an even bigger priority just to keep up. I like players who can make a bunch of birdies. Four par 5s and a couple of short par 4s will present sub-par scoring chances.

I factored scoring ability into the equation along with par 4 skill. Those 10 holes really trace a full assortment of varied tests. Six, 10, 13, 14, and 17 all demand accurate driving. They wind through the woods and are the essence of this exam. I see a number of great ball strikers in the field, but can they navigate these green complexes with their flatstick. Ten of the 16 winners from this season are also in the field. Can breakout player Lauren Coughlin get her third win? Can Megan Khang putt and steal one for the home crowd. How about the young star from New England Alexa Pano? So many subplots still remain to be solved this season.

The majors are behind us, but the fall swing is just beginning. We won three times in the closing months last year. Let's kick off Labor Day weekend with number 11...

Outright winners - FM Global Championship

Mao Saigo finished seventh in the AIG Open in brutal conditions. Her ball striking is for real. Saigo finished runner-up in Canada. TPC Boston will play very similar to that week. Mao is a very solid ball striker both OTT and on approach. Mao is ranked first in the field for par 4 scoring. Saigo can score, and on this course, will create a bunch of sub-par scores. Mao Saigo +2500

There's nothing quite like a hometown advantage and Alexa Pano has it. The Massachusetts native grew up 30 miles from TPC Boston. Pano is a rising LPGA star. She is ranked fourth T2G and first on APP in this field. Alexa finished tenth at the AIG Open last week, and fourteenth in Portland. She is one of a few local players who will be very motivated to play well after two brutal weeks in Scotland. Alexa Pano +11000

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