Endgame

ATLANTA GA - Week after week, I am consistently asked how we bet against Scottie Scheffler. How do you pass a Winnebago on a one-lane highway? You don't. Accept they aren't going away and enjoy the ride. That's the case with the number one player in the world. I reported Ted Scot wasn't working last week, and Scottie still won. Ted is back this week. Scheffler was arrested a couple of hours before his PGA Championship tee time. He shot 66 that day and finished eighth at Valhalla. I can remember a time when Tiger had zero distractions, and it was impossible to bet against him. Scottie Scheffler is going to win the Tour Championship, and there's nothing 29 other players can do about it.

Scheffler enters the final event having won five of his last 10 starts. He's the statistical leader in about 121 categories, and first in strokes gained, being a great person. Scottie's rise to supremacy matches RTL's timeline very closely. My first year covering the TOUR full-time from a betting perspective was 2022. Remember the playoff putt against Cantlay on Superbowl Sunday? Scheffler then wins three of his next five starts, including the Masters. Fast forward to the current day, and it takes endless dedication to create winning cards with him in the field. I love the challenge, and cannot wait to produce a winning week in an event most handicap pundits just overlook.

Neighborhood block party

I found an incredible Airbnb this week within walking distance of East Lake Golf Club. The Oakhurst neighborhood is my home for six days, and if you are in town, the "Universal Joint" is my evening dinner/after-work haven. One mile from the north edge of ELGC, I have time at the start and close of each day to gather my thoughts on the final week of the 2025 FedEx Cup season. We all love the fall, but this is the PGA TOUR's Superbowl of sorts, and their best player enters in great form. Before the St. Jude, I mentioned a number of FEC playoff bullet points. My favorite is the multiple-winner category. In 18 editions, there have been eight multi-playoff winners on their run to the cup. Can Scottie Scheffler or Justin Rose be the ninth? The starting strokes are gone. Playoff points are also gone. Win this week, and you win the PGA TOUR's ultimate year-long prize.

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Keith's Keys 🗞️ A couple of key skills you can claim as your own at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. You can find complete explanations for each in the betting breakdown. Zoysia Flusher: East Lake rewards great iron players in two ways. First, the fairways are Zoysiagrass; the best surface to strike a ball. Second, ELGC requires a bunch of different approach skill sets. The best iron players can separate. Bermuda triangle: Avoid the Bermudagrass rough off the tee. Keep it in the fairway and you'll see less Bermudagrass around the green and more on the greens. Par 70 player: For the third week in a row, we have a par 70 test. This is a skill set! Players who can go low on 3s and 4s have an advantage.

Even though the players came in ranked one to 30, all of them start at even par on Thursday. If Jacob Bridgeman shoots the low 72-hole score, he wins it all. For the last two weeks, the cutoffs have MEANT something. The top 50 coming out of Memphis made you a signature player. Top 30 gets me in three major championships, another year on TOUR, and an opportunity to compete for the PGA TOUR's richest prize. You'll hear a ton of hyperbole from the critical pundits, but it is true. After 15 straight weeks of losing strokes on approach, if Sungjae Im wins, he's the FedEx Cup Champion. It's all pretty crazy when you think about it. On property, I get a sense that even the players are trying to rationalize each possible result. There's no event next week; no top 20 cutoff. For all 30 players, this is their final week. I cannot wait to watch them all leave it on the course.

Tour Championship starts in...

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Some players just aren't in good form. Those that are, it's time to go. My gut feeling is that Scheffler will not let this moment get away, but golf is a funny game. Tournament officials have made some changes. Andrew Green's 2024 renovation has been modified after three players finished 20 under par last year. Tournament officials have adjusted the scorecard from a par 71 to a par 70. The fourteenth hole will be played as a 4 in 2025. The official yardage is now 7,440. We have an average green size of 6,238 sq/ft. The putting surfaces are covered in Bermudagrass, the fairways in Zoysia, and it is all surrounded by Bermudagrass rough. Starting strokes are gone, and I will be the last person to bring them back. All of my research focuses on the gross winners of this tournament over the past 10 years (starting strokes were used from 2019 to 2024).

The average winning score was 17 under par over the last five years. Two of those years, there was a tie for the lowest 72-hole score, and that has been included in my calculations. Could you imagine a tie on the PGA TOUR? Walking the grounds last year and this week, there's no doubt the changes made by Green make the place better for the average golfer. For the 30 best players of 2025... it is easier than it was before bulldozers. In both incarnations, this is a BoB event. Those same seven winners over the past five years averaged 22 sub-par scores in the year they won. Last year, the greens were brand new and had some bounce. Half the field still finished 10 under par (or better).

The forecast is also a recipe for record-breaking scores. The golf course is moderately soft. You'll see balls rolling in the fairway, but that's due to the slope of this property and not the firmness of the fairways. East Lake received an inch of rain (plus) over the weekend, and we expect storms each day of the tournament. The skies unloaded yesterday around 5:00 pm ET. Come to the hot, humid southeast in August, and that's what you get. The greens are pure to putt, and guys will be able to stop the ball on approach. That combination means it will take a deep number to earn the PGA TOUR's ultimate prize. Vegas has set the winning score over/under at 17.5 under par. I like the under 262.5 based upon the turf conditions. The greens had a ton of bounce last year, and three guys got to 20 under par.

The 2026 schedule was released this week, and the PGA TOUR's new CEO Brian Rolapp is speaking this morning. TV ratings are up, and the TOUR is adding premier events. If sponsorship dollars are rolling in and the best players in the world are competing more often, then professional golf is in a great (growing) place. Even the Golf Channel is leaning in. ​Read The Line was in studio on Monday to preview the Tour Championship​. The 2025 season was good for fans, which means it was good for golf. Our wagering world is being recognized by several outlets. Keep the faith, 2026 is going to be the best season yet!

Superbowl skills

For years, everyone referred to this week as a season-ending money grab. For the last six years, the TOUR has given an advantage to the best player(s). Before the starting strokes era, FedEx Cup points were still part of the equation. After 18 editions, we may be getting close to a suitable solution. All 30 players start even par this week. No points, no strokes, no advantage, unless maybe you are the number one player in the world. The purse is $40 million, and the winner receives a check for $10 million. The low player after 72 holes of individual stroke play takes home the hardware. There are 30 different scenarios in play, from a Jacob Bridgeman victory to Scottie winning back-to-back and in back-to-back weeks. It's worth noting, no player has ever repeated as FedEx Cup Champion. If Scheffler were to win, it would cap off a third straight career year for the Texan.

Scottie has entered East Lake as the FedEx Cup points leader each of the last four seasons; this year included. Yet, Scheffler only has one FEC title. The other 29 players are good, and golf can be a fickle game. If another player were to take down the betting favorite, how could it happen? Looking through past leaderboards, I didn't see a significant change after the Andrew Green renovation. If anything, the layout probably got better for the average amateur and easier for the TOUR's annual best. Half of the field was double digits under par after 72 holes. Attacking East Lake requires a stereotypical strategy. First things first, pay attention to the Bermuda triangle. What is ELGC's version of the Atlantic's mystery zone? Step one, keep the ball out of the Bermudagrass rough. The recent career strokes gained leaders in Atlanta are Russell Henley, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, and Collin Morikawa.

Read the Line & 5 Clubs collaborated again to produce a betting preview for the Tour Championship. Pat Mayo even joined the show! Hit the button and watch... ​ Betting show - Tour Championship

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The instant you read those names, you think about precision ball striking. That's what it takes to win at East Lake (and beat Scheffler). The average winning score without any strokes over the last decade is 15 under par. Soft course conditions, and that number will be even lower. When attacking Andrew's advanced green complexes, you must play from the Zoysiagrass fairways for two reasons. One, great ball strikers differentiate themselves from Zoysia, and two, if you plan on making 24+ sub-par scores, you will need some proximity to the hole. Year after year, the best drivers excel at East Lake. It sounds simple, but if you could find the fairway at TPC Southwind two weeks ago, you certainly have my attention.

East Lake has always been a great approach examination. Long, difficult par 3s, terrain changes with mid irons, and a bunch of scoring shots with a wedge. Contending takes acumen with the full complement of clubs. I tend to combine the best approach players with their ability to score on par 3s and 4s during par 70 weeks. I asked Tommy Fleetwood during his press conference about being a good par 70 player. Fleetwood's response, "I guess I'm just better when there's fewer birdie chances." The best par 70 scorers can go low in a variety of ways. You don't have to look far for those players; the last two weeks have also been par 70 leaderboards. Recent form, scorecard savvy, and excellent spin/trajectory control are essential at East Lake.

Bermudagrass putting, a bit of scrambling thrown in for the par 5s and short 4s, and we have our leans. The problem is, we still need to decide what to do with Scottie Scheffler. Five wins in 10 starts, and the last one came without his caddie. The number one skill I'm leveraging this week is "the moment." All 30 guys are all-in. If we can judge strokes gained pressure, then we know who handles it best. The player who can compartmentalize their emotions and limit distractions. I wonder who that may be... Limited to 30 choices, I'm taking the best one. I'll cover my investment with some strategic prop and placement opportunities so we can maximize the haul when Mr. Inevitable arrives. If we save a couple of units, then we will spend them on Procore in two weeks. As for now, I'm taking Scheffler and a guaranteed sweat come Sunday.

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Outright Winner - Tour Championship

The best player in the world realizes the moment. Scottie Scheffler is not going to let this one get away. Eight players in 18 years have multiple playoff wins in the same postseason campaign. Scheffler will make nine in 19 years and become the first repeat FedEx Cup Champion. Scottie Scheffler +175 (BM)

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National championship

If 2024 was the year of Nelly Korda on the LPGA tour, then 2025 is all about the JLPGA. Akie Iwai wins the Standard Portland Classic. I picked her sister, Chisato, for a winning top 10 ticket Sunday, and RTL has backed Akie several times this season to win outright. Another breakthrough victory for the Japanese movement. That's two wins in a row (Miyu Yamashita won the AIG Women's Open) and five wins this season, including two major championships! Can they make it three events in succession? One will have to win the CPKC Women's Open to complete the trifecta. Standing in their way are six of the top 10 and 19 of the top 25 in the Rolex World Rankings.

The field starts with 156 players, and the low 65 and ties will make the weekend. Canadian Brooke Henderson finished T23 in Portland on Sunday. That was her first top 25 since June. Henderson, the star of the show in Canada, so it is good to see her show some form before her national championship. The Women's Canadian Open started in 1973. Our host venue is the Mississauga Golf and Country Club in Ontario. A historic Canadian venue, it has hosted the Men's Canadian Open six times from 1931 to 1974. Mississauga is a great parkland setting with wonderful use of the terrain and a layout that works alongside and over the Credit River. Seven holes have water in play, along with 70 bunkers to catch the ladies’ attention.

CPKC Women's Open starts in...

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The weather has been a story at Mississauga and across the region. Extreme heat has plagued the turf, and the Superintendent is happy to see some relief this week in the forecast. Players will face temperatures in the high 70s and low 80s in the afternoon. There's a chance we see traces of precipitation on the weekend, and for the first time since Wales, there will be some wind to calculate. This heat wave comes on the back of a massive flooding event across the lower holes at Mississauga. The clubhouse sits on a small bluff overlooking a majority of the holes as they jump back and forth across the Credit River. That river flooded the region in mid-July last summer. Superintendent Jonathan Smith included pictures in his report. The entire lower course area was underwater.

From saturated a year ago to hellacious heat, Smith and his team have had their hands full. Avoiding the river is step one when you play MG&CC, and the second is keeping the ball in the fairway. Burned out sections of rough in areas that had no possible way to recover from last summer lead us down a path that suggests plenty of scoring. Much like Columbia Edgewater Country Club last week in Portland, we have average-sized green complexes (6,000 sq/ft) covered in a northern bentgrass/poa mix. That's perfect for putting and with little rough to slow down the field due to the turf conditions, the contenders will need to go low. Our last two CPKC venues were very difficult. RTL handicapped them well as we picked Megan Khang and Lauren Coughlin to win back-to-back years, both at +4000.

While all the attention is on Atlanta and the conversation surrounding Bethpage Black's players next month, the LPGA has only had one United States winner since February. That was Jennifer Kupcho at the ShopRite in June. We've got Nelly, Angel, and Lexi in Canada. Can one of our women win a national championship north of the border? Keep reading to find out what skill set they will need to contend and win.

Park ranger

The LPGA Schedule has eleven regular season events left to earn CME Points. The top 60 get into the tour championship. Of those 11 tournaments, only five of them are in North America. The fall Asia swing is tough, so the time is now for many players to start securing their spot in the year-end extravaganza. Remember, the winner of the final event takes home $4 million, and the total purse for 60 players is $11 million! The men aren't the only ones who have a ton of cash to play for at the end. This week, the purse is $2.75 million, and first place earns $412,500. A little dose of reality, but time is ticking in 2025. Any regular LPGA touring professional who does not make the trek around the world has six chances to get in. I mention this for a reason: some players are facing external pressures in Canada. Brooke Henderson, for obvious reasons, but many others have not performed to their usual level.

Nineteen of our 22 winners this season are playing. When I completed my research on Mississauga G&CC, three things stood out. Elite drivers are going to have an advantage. The winner will need to score on the 3s and 4s. Third, who can create the most birdie chances with their iron game? Sixty-six hundred yards sounds like a stout test, but the turf is firm. Players are going to see some significant roll off the tee. The LPGA allows the players to score and seldom makes the green surfaces very firm, but they do like fast fairways. The opposite of the PGA TOUR, officials are looking for ways to help the field go low. Bombs away on the Credit River. I'm favoring the best drivers of the golf ball by length over accuracy. Nine of the 14 tee shots move left to right, so if a right-hander fades it, even better. I love this strategy because certain longer hitters have favorable odds... hello Nelly Korda at +1600! By the end of the week, strokes gained OTT will have a huge influence on this Sunday’s leaderboard.

If I go back 12 years and break down the 10 winners (Covid cancelled 2020-21), each of them is a great iron player. The CPKC has been played at 31 different venues since 1973. It's Canada's national championship, and that means target parkland golf. Great approach players create more scoring opportunities. It doesn't matter what par, terrain changes, or length, they just keep giving themselves realistic birdie chances. For Mississauga, we want the best scoring to mid-iron players. That range of 140 to 160 yards on the ground. Coughlin, (Lydia) Ko, (Jin Young) Ko, Khang, Henderson, (Ariya) Jutanugarn are all exceptional iron players. That's your who's who of the last 10 champions. I mentioned the wind earlier. It's going to start blowing from the northeast on Thursday and finish blowing from the southwest on Sunday. The change in conditions will challenge their approach play more than any other skill. Another reason why iron play is going to be so valuable.

We saw what happened in Portland when these women got favorable conditions at a well-maintained parkland golf course; scores go low. Last week was just a primer. Mississauga is more difficult than Columbia Edgewater, but I still expect 16 to 18 under par for the winner. If one or two players get hot, that final total could go even deeper. I'm taking players who have a favorable BoB% and shoot rounds in the 60s. Much like last week, I don't see a ton of trouble outside of the river. LPGA players are far more accurate than their male counterparts. I expect fairways and greens. The report on the putting surfaces from on-site is that they are perfect for scoring. I realize this is a brand-new venue, but these ladies face new greens every week and find a way to rack up sub-par scores. Great bent-poa putters, par 4 killers, and sub 70 scorers; that's who's on our card.

You can't make birdies if the putter doesn't cooperate. Trending putters have my attention, along with the T2G skills I outlined above. We have a strong field and an opportunity to predict the winner three times in a row. With a 30-man cash grab on the PGA TOUR, our greatest value proposition this week is in Canada. Take a trip with me and watch a little golf along the Credit River. Mississauga is a great layout that will provide plenty of scoring and closing theater come Sunday afternoon.

Outright winners - CPKC Women's Open

Linn Grant may not have the consistency of the higher-ranked players on the LPGA, but when she is in full flight, she can certainly hang with them. Grant finished T19 at the AIG Women's Open and contended late in Portland on Sunday. A top 5 player OTT, she dominates par 4s and has improved her approach play this season. Grant can score, and with her driver, is a great fit for a parkland layout where length is a separating skill. Linn Grant +3000 (BR)

Last year, we picked a trending Lauren Coughlin to win the CPKC Women's Open. She cashed a 40-1 ticket and won again a couple of weeks later. Coughlin heads to Mississauga fresh off a seventh-place finish in Portland. The ball striking is on point as she gained in every primary strokes gained category last week. The putter has been her achilles heel, and it was also positive against the field a week ago. Tenth in Scotland, thirteenth at the AIG, and seventh on Sunday, I think the trend is our friend again in Canada with Coughlin. Lauren Coughlin +3500 (DK)

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