What "The Kid" did

ST. SIMONS, GA

Prior to playing in the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, Rafael Campos missed 11 of his last 13 cuts. His pre-tournament odds were +30000 (300-1!) Campos is officially our fourteenth first-time winner on the PGA TOUR in 2024. Considering Scottie won every other event this season, 2024 has been a tale of two types of champions. All kidding aside, in 46 events, first-time winners (14) and Scottie (7) accounted for nearly 50% of the trophies on the PGA TOUR. Another first-time winner took place at the RSM Classic last year.

I'll never forget what I witnessed on the weekend one year ago. Ludvig Åberg shot 61-61 to win the RSM at 29 under par. One twenty-two in 36-holes! Åberg had 26 birdies, two eagles, and ONE bogey over 72-holes. Ludvig entered the week last year as the betting favorite at +1200. This year is his opening odds are +1000. We haven't seen The Kid since the Tour Championship in Atlanta. I guess he must be well rested..?

Record weekends aside, this is the final stop for the PGA TOUR in 2024. TOUR cards are on the line as the top 125 earn an exemption for 2025 (​FEC points list​​). All 19 players ranked from 122 to 140 are in the field. They are not the only ones competing for key spots. Seven guys inside the AON Top 10 (51-60) are here as well as seven from 61-70. That FedEx Cup Fall top 10 earns a spot in the AT&T Pro-am and Genesis Invitational which are both early season signature events.

RSM Classic starts in...

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Golden isles

With so much on the line, I cannot think of a better venue for these guys. First of all, with two championship courses, we have 156 players in the field competing to make the cut (top 65 and ties). We will finally finish a 36-hole cut! The field will be split in half and each player will compete once on the Plantation and Seaside courses in rounds one and two. The weekend rounds will be played on the Seaside course. The purse has been reduced to $7.6 million (down from $8.4 million 2023) and the winner's check is worth $1.4 million. We are at the home of the Sea Island mafia, and they are representing this week. Fourteen players are in the field call the Georgia golden isle home.

This is the fifteenth RSM Classic and only Chris Kirk and Zach Johnson have competed in all of them. In 2015, tournament officials adopted the two-course rotation. What's the difference between the Plantation and Seaside courses at Sea Island; let's break it down.

• The Plantation Course was designed 1928 by Walter Travis and was renovated in 2019 by Sea Island's own Davis Love III. A par 72 layout (7,060 yards) the course exhibits 81 bunkers and 10 holes where water comes into play. This is definitely the easier of the two courses. We have four par 5s, and the par 3s as a group are shorter. Seven of the 10 par 4s are under 440 yards. The greens average about 6,100 sq/ft and are covered in Bermudagrass. This layout is lined with trees, but the lack of length doesn't create a huge need for driver. The biggest defense of these two courses is the wind and Plantation is far more protected. You only get one round here all week, make it a good one.
• The Seaside Course was designed by Harry Colt in 1929 and renovated by Tom Fazio in 1999. I have never been a huge Fazio fan, but I love this course. That's probably due to the location right along the St. Simons sound. With very few trees in play, this course can beat you up in the wind. A par 70 scorecard (7,005 yards) there are only two par 5s to take advantage of. Forty-seven bunkers don't really describe the amount of sand you will encounter. Seaside is built on a marsh. Thirteen holes have water in play and in-between the holes we have sandy waste areas. The greens are a little bigger on paper at 7,200 sq/ft, but that can be deceiving. They all seem to melt away on the edges creating less landing surface than it looks like. It's a beautiful scene that Åberg absolutely annihilated last year.

For those that love trends, seven of the nine winners since we went to two courses have started on Plantation. It makes sense, get hot early and never look back...

Read The Line recap 🗞️ Ludvig Åberg approached the 2024 RSM Classic much different than most past champions. Åberg was second in the field for driving distance at 309 yards. In comparison, Adam Svensson who won in 2023 averaged 277 yards off the tee. Svensson can hit it much further and didn't. Ludvig gained five strokes on the field off the tee and gave himself an endless amount of birdie opportunities. I believe his game plan will change the way in which the entire field attacks these courses going forward.

The average winning score over the past nine years since we started using two courses is 21 under par. These are two resort courses and unless the wind really blows, these guys will go nuclear on the leaderboard. The cutline average for the last five years is four under par. Guys are going to get after this week and the weather will allow them to do so. The past two days have been beautiful. Temperatures in the high 70s and a comfortable breeze. We expect a front to roll in this afternoon with some precipitation. Not enough to cause alarm, but some to soften the surfaces and make them more receptive. Couple that with a temperature drop and this place will be ripe for the picking.

We will see some wind in the afternoon, but with two courses for the first two days, nobody plays late. The wind calms down over the weekend and it is race to 24 under par. Sure it will be a little cool in the morning, but players don't have to go off at the crack of dawn either. The situation is set up for scoring and let's face it, these guys have to get after it. Campos was 19 under par last week in a windstorm over the weekend. Every guy around the top 125 qualifying number is in the field. Watching the practice sessions, you can easily tell who lives here, has their card, and who is battling for their livelihood.

This is the last year to get in at 125. More changes are coming and getting your TOUR card before that happens can be crucial to catching a "winning" break. Look at Campos, that guy had more frequent flyer miles on a Friday than a company executive. My observations on site also coincide with scoring. There is little to no rough and the fairways are in perfect condition. Ten players in the field are in the top 50 of the OWGR. That's the highest number we have seen all fall! Our last chance to dance in 2024, let's see who our on-site eyes favor this week in the low country.

Target practice

Strokes gained can be very deceiving at times. Betting pundits constantly look for huge edges. When the numbers don't represent large gains, they look elsewhere. I have played these courses over 20 times (each) and now watched the RSM live for a couple years. I can say without a shadow of a doubt, this is an iron contest. Players may win with their putter, but the true skill to keep you in contention is approach play. These courses are short, and if you can hit your irons close, Ludvig showed us what is possible. Unlike many of the fall venues, Sea Island does let you use your long irons. It only happens on the par 3s and 5s, but they can definitely give you an edge. Eight of the last 10 winners saw their largest proximity gains from over 200 yards.

The wedges and scoring irons need to be on point. Walking with players, it seems like every par 4 approach is with a wedge. As a result, this venue just is not good for some players. With a starting point of 156 players in the field, we will have plenty of great wedge wizards to choose from. So how do we separate them, consider their long iron acumen as well. ;-) Seaside is a beautiful combination of driving angles and raised targets. Each of the green surfaces sit above the player's feet on approach. Not all of them, but a large majority. As such, you really have to control spin and trajectory and great wedge players can do that.

The driver can also add an edge if you are long and ACCURATE. If you're just long, then length is not always your ally. The way Åberg attacked these courses with the driver last year may change how the field plans to play the courses going forward. I'm adding some OTT skill to my outright observations. Where most used to lay up, Ludvig showed everyone a new alternative approach. Once that happens you cannot hang back anymore. The field will be forced to attack in order to keep up. After all, he is here and I'm sure he plans to play the exact same way!

Bermudagrass putting is a positive asset. Putting ultimately determined our winner last week and it will happen again on Sunday at St. Simons. Oddly enough, I don't give the Sea Island locals an edge in this category. Touring professionals don't play nearly as much golf at home as fans believe they do. In many cases they practice an infinite amount, but they don't sit and study the surfaces. If anything, most of these guys are hosting other players, caddies, wives, etc. and they are busy being a bed and breakfast. Sea Island sings at night with the sound of crackling Solo Stoves and the many hits of Morgan Wallen.

Seven of the last 10 winners gained over 4.5 strokes on the field putting. That's a substantial amount given the conditions can range from freezing wind and beanies to golf shirts. Converting birdie opportunities on this collection of par 4s also makes a difference. The last 10 winners have gained an average of 10 strokes on the field with their par 4 performance. Two years ago, Adam Svensson won at 19 under par. He made 14 birdies on par 4s and played them at 12 under for the week. Watch for the guys who can really score on mid-range 4s. Much like Åberg a year ago, that is really where the score adds up.

Sub-par scores are a theme throughout this narrative. Going low is a skill and one that not all PGA TOUR professionals possess. It sounds simple enough but averaging 6 birdies a day is elite status. Many players can do that part, but what about the bogeys. There's a famous saying out here, "if you want to keep your card, you don't need more birdies. You need to eliminate the bogeys." That mindset makes a difference and gives us a short list of players who can score consistently across four rounds. When comparing competitors in shoot-outs, make sure you not only account for the birdies, but the ability to avoid mistakes as well.

Outright Winners - RSM Classic

Both of Mackenzie Hughes PGA TOUR wins have happened in the fall. Hughes has finished runner-up in two of his last three RSM starts. He also won in 2016. Mac is a top two putter in this field. He's gaining an average of four strokes per start with his flatstick over the last five. Hughes has played well this fall, fourth at the Procore and eighth at the Sanderson. He shot 17 under on the weekend last year. Mackenzie Hughes +4000

All the content kings are forgetting about Eric Cole. The last time we saw Cole he finished sixth at the ZOZO Championship. Eric finished third at RSM last year. Cole is eighth in the field in putting on Bermudagrass and thirteenth on approach. Eric gained six strokes on the field putting last year at Sea Island. Cole is fourth in the field for opportunities gained and seventh in proximity. He creates birdie chances! Eric Cole +4000

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Inside the ropes at the 2023 Genesis Invitational

$2 million... try FOUR!

The top 60 women from the 2024 season are playing for $11 million this week in Naples, Florida. At the CME GROUP TOUR Championship, first-place receives a check for $4 million. It is the largest purse/prize in women’s professional sports. I realize the men play for $20 million 10+ times per season, but this is a big deal. It’s worth mentioning more than once because when the women enter the final nine holes on Sunday, there is a lot of money on the line. Can a first-time winner close? Will a mid-tier player elevate their career to the next level. Amy Yang’s win last year catapulted her to a major victory in 2024. Or will Nelly finish off win number eight, take home more money than any player in LPGA history, and begin to cement her hall of fame legacy…

We return to Tiburon Golf Club’s Gold Course for the eleventh time to conclude the LPGA calendar. A true Florida setting, the course and field have combined for some great season ending entertainment over the past decade. Trouble lurks at Tiburon around every corner, but that doesn’t seem to stop this field. The average winning score over the past five years is 21 under par. Amy Yang is our defending champion and won with a total of 27 under last November. These women won’t return until mid-January, and each gets four rounds as the event has no cut. With Nelly’s win last week, she has ushered a challenge; come and get me. Can Charley Hull take revenge or will another of these world’s best women take down the unconquerable Korda.

CME Group Tour Championship starts in...

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Golden opportunity

When I think of Florida golf courses, and image comes to mind. Hallways of fairway grass framed by vegetation and water. That’s the Gold Course at Tiburon. Sixteen holes have water in play and there are 50 bunkers to avoid. What always strikes me about this place is that with all the trouble you see, the women always go deep. Eighteen of the top 20 in the Rolex World Rankings are here to compete. The impressive total of ranked players shows exactly how global the LPGA has become. The best women in the world are playing on their tour. Now if only we could get them on television!

Naples was not immune to the storms this fall. The Tiburon facility received its fair share of rain and damage. Congratulations to the maintenance team. Much like Pelican Golf Club last week, these crews have worked around the clock to provide the women with a championship venue. We will start the week with a little more rain. The forecast calls for showers on Wednesday prior to round one. That will only make the greens more receptible to incoming approaches. On a course where accuracy is the key to contending, soft conditions will only supply the audience with more sub-par scores.

Following Wednesday’s weather, conditions look ideal for golf. Temperatures will reach the low 70s each day and the wind will be quite manageable blowing between 8-12 mph all four rounds. The greens are above average in size and covered in Bermudagrass. The best “Florida” players rose to the top of the leaderboard at The ANNIKA, and we know they will be there again in Naples. The fairways are quite welcoming at 35+ yards wide and playing to a par 72 one can easily see why the women aren’t faced with an incredible scoring challenge.

I love a good shoot-out especially when there is so much money on the line. There will be plenty of leaderboard gravity come Sunday. Maybe not from Nelly, but even she has never earned $4 million in four days. Tiburon allows the women to test themselves. To appreciate specific architectural angles and attack. Don’t get me wrong, this is not Augusta National, but you will see players create shots in order to score. In doing so, our winner cannot supplant Korda as the Player of the Year, but they will be able to say they took $4 million from her.

Midas touch

Just because a course "sounds" easy for the world's best women, doesn't mean everyone will contend. The highest score last year was two over par. That's 29 shots behind the winner. Only 11 players finished within 10 shots of the winner Yang. How did she separate on the Gold Course? That's why you read the line... Greg Norman designed the Gold Course in 1998. Knowing Norman's playing history, he always creates a challenge off the tee. Norman was one of the greatest drivers in golf history. When you first see these fairways, you wonder if Norman really built this Florida beauty. He did, and after you watch the women play the venue, you can really see the challenge come to light.

The two keys to contending are iron play and putting. Both are setup by the driver. Don't lose sight of the impact a player off the tee can have. Eight of the top 11 finishers last year were inside the top 10 for strokes gained OTT. I'm not talking about just hitting the fairway, I'm talking about gaining on the field with your driver; there's a difference. Whether Norman knew it or not, players are required to hit specific sides of the fairways to attack these hole locations. Course knowledge and the ability to find the best angles on approach are part of the secret sauce needed to win.

Approach play is a huge factor here. The last two winners averaged hitting 83% of their GIRs. At 7,200 sq/ft, these greens aren't small, but they sit at funny angles. The last two top 10s averaged hitting 78% of their GIRs and were able to keep the ball close to their target. I'm favoring great iron players who lead the LPGA in proximity to the hole. Recent form is key along with success in Florida. You know approach play is important when par 3 scoring creates an edge. Last year, the leaders averaged .22 strokes under par on the 3s. With no cut and only 60 players, that's a serious edge. Score with your iron game and you're going to be in striking distance on Sunday afternoon.

The ladies eat up the par 5s here. They average just 514 yards in length. It's basically required to shoot sub-par scores there, but the 4s are the key. Good par 4 players put the ball in play OTT. They attack with their iron game and convert birdie chances. Yang was second in the field last year and Lydia Ko (2022) was second as well. By tailing the best par 4 players who excel on par 4s under 400 yards, the Gold Course has seven of them, we will contend. Ko's year eight of the top 10 were in the top 10 for par 4 performance. Last year, seven were in the top 10.

Pelican proved it again. Bermudagrass putters win in Florida. The last two CME Group TC top 10s gained an average of three strokes on the field with their flatstick. Amy Yang made 28 sub-par scores last year. 28! With perfect scoring conditions, you're going to need at least 26-28 birdies (eagles) again. When you look at not just strokes gained putting, but putts per GIR, putting average, and BoB% you can see who really scores on the LPGA. The Gold Course takes a Midas touch with your putter. I've stressed ball striking and we have taken that into account. In the end, making putts on Bermudagrass will determine our winner. Lydia Ko gained over nine strokes on the field in 2022 on her way to winning.

It's the last dance for the ladies and we have had a very positive year. Let's close 2024 in style and set ourselves up for a nice long offseason.

Outright winners - CME Group Tour Championship

In 15 starts this season, Jeeno Thitikul has 10 top 10s! Forget the field, Thitikul is first on the LPGA in: strokes gained scoring, GIRs, BoB%, birdie to bogey ratio, Par 4 scoring AND Par 5 scoring! With five top 5s, she's the one player who week after week has the firepower to challenge Nelly Korda. Jeeno in her last two starts at the CME Group she finished fifth and tenth. Jeeno Thitikul +900

Minjee Lee is the BEST approach player on the LPGA tour in 2024. Lee has two top 8 results at the CME in the last three years. Her putting has issues, but top 15 last week on challenging greens at PGC catches my attention. Minjee is an elite par 4 scorer. She is by far the best value on this betting board with a $4 million dollar purse. Minjee Lee +5000

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