Back-to-back

The PGA Tour's worst fear came to pass over the weekend. No, not a five-shot sleeper victory by Andrew Novak in Mexico. Rather, the Internet Invitational racked up more than 20 million views in a week. Twenty million viewers is a lot, but what's even more concerning to the leaders in Ponte Vedra Beach is the production. Fact is, the Barstool team produced a compelling broadcast even with a competitive commercial load. Double box viewing, course maps, 16 matches utilizing over 80 concurrent cameras in the first two episodes, and the scoring accuracy was off the charts. I realize this is not a live production, but to see what simply can be copied has to give the golf television industry pause. Internet golf is not for everyone, but if you love watching golf on television, take in 30 minutes of this tournament. Don't be surprised if you get hooked! Will a Barstool production beat The Masters? Of course not, but could a regular PGA Tour event be presented in a more compelling manner, absolutely. In an ever-evolving media world where "that's what we have always done" is not good enough anymore, this presentation gives me hope for the future of televised golf.
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The PGA Tour will travel approximately 340 miles up the western coast of Mexico and then out to the Baja Peninsula for the World Wide Technology Championship. From VidantaWorld to the Diamante Resort, players and their families are having two incredible back-to-back resort weeks south of the border. Twenty-one of the top 100 in the OWGR had traveled to Cabo. More important than world rankings, players number 95 through 126 on the FEC points list are in attendance. Keep in mind, only the top 100 earn their 2027 PGA Tour card. Those 31 guys have a ton to play for over the next three weeks! The El Cardonal Course at Diamante was designed by Tiger Woods in 2014 and has been the host of this event since 2023. A true resort venue, El Cardonal boasts over 98 acres of fairway across 18 holes.

World Wide Technology Championship starts in...

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26.7 under par

In three editions of the WWT Championship, the average winning score is 26.7 under par. Those three winners, Erik van Rooyen, Austin Eckroat, and Ben Griffin, averaged a 31.7 sub-par score en route to victory. What will it take to win this week? Birdies, and maybe a couple of eagles. The WWT might be the purest form of a birdiefest on the PGA Tour schedule. The average cutline over three years is four under par, and it takes an average total of 20 under par to reach the top 10. The outright breakdown for this event is not complicated. Over the past three years, the average drive is 302 yards, players hit 89% of their fairways, and 78% of their GIRs. So what separates the field, scoring? With 8,300 sq/ft size green surfaces on average, hitting 80% of your GIRs is not difficult. The course has one hole with water in play, and 48 bunkers. The fairways are 60 yards wide in most cases. The field will produce at least three or four players who will not miss a fairway for four days. Nineteen players scored four rounds in the 60s last year.

The greens are covered in Platinum Paspalum. One of those sticky surfaces, players with a positive history navigating these slow, grainy greens will have an advantage. Grand Reserve and Vidanta Vallarta are two great comp venues just for that reason. Personally, I also love the scoring skill set correlation at the American Express in Palm Desert, the Black Desert Resort, and at the Corales Golf Club. For those looking to go a little deeper on the historic leaderboards, try PGA National and TPC Summerlin. The field and the purse were reduced last year. Only 120 in the field and they are competing for $6 million. The top 65 and ties make the weekend and have a chance to win that $1.08 million winner's check. Most would have a million dollars in their bank account, but a large majority are here for the FEC points. Time is quickly winding down as counting the WWT there are only three events left on the 2026 PGA Tour calendar. A quick glance at the scorecard (Par 72, 7,452 yards) and you see there's some length. Truth is, the average par 3 is 188 yards (7 or 8 iron) and all of the par 5s are reachable by a majority of the field. Two par 4s under 350 yards provide more scoring chances. Thirteen of the 18 holes have a scoring average under par.

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How to win?

I want to build the outright archetype around scoring. The winner will need 30+ subpar scores to win. That's making birdie or better on 45% of the holes! Although these guys make it look easy, going super low for four straight rounds is a separating skill on Tour. Not every elite PGA Tour player can shoot 63 or better. Each of them may do it once or twice a season, but we are talking about doing it twice in four rounds. By keeping our focus on scoring, we can get very narrow on the traits these players will need to accomplish that level of going low. Let's walk through the art of averaging seven under par, per round!

• The fairways at El Cardonal are the widest on the PGA Tour. Don't get thrown off by the fact everyone can hit them. These green complexes are wild. The surfaces have shelves, plateaus, and sections to contend with when you are putting. By placing the ball on the correct side of these vast fairways, players will give themselves the best angle to attack specific pin locations. Accuracy counts at El Cardonal on more than approach shots.
• Speaking of approach play, that's your number one priority in this scoring fest. To contend, you must create 30+ realistic birdie chances. The sweet spot in the bag is between your gap wedge and seven iron. Following the last few weeks of the FEC Fall Series, we know who the best iron players are; time to use them.
• Putting on Platinum Paspalum sounds fancy, but the reality is many in the field just are not great on slow, bumpy greens. The salt air tends to puff up the blade and make the surfaces sticky. Experience on grainy Bermuda, slow greens, and Paspalum is noteworthy.
• Instead of singling out par 5 scoring, I'm looking through the scrambling rankings. Scoring from close range is an art form, and with these creative green complexes, players will be asked to pitch it close from 25 to 75 yards on the par 5s and short par 4s. Capitalizing on those six scoring chances per round is imperative.
• I cannot find a direct correlation between ball speed and success at El Cardonal. Ball striking, yes! But for every Marco Penge, we have an Austin Eckroat. I am steering clear of the distance conversation and relying more on iron play.

I have created a couple of rankings, one for scoring that includes BoB% along with the ability to create actual scoring chances. The second leaderboard reveals the best iron players for this specific scorecard. By comparing those two lists side by side, you start to see clearly the style of player who can contend at El Cardonal. Who are they? Scroll down to see our outright card for the World Wide Technology Championship.

Outright Winners - WWT Championship

LPGA

Favorites season

Upon returning from their summer Europe tour, the Portland Classic marked the start of the fall run of LPGA events. The number two-ranked player in the world, Jeeno Thitikul, won in Oregon and started a difficult trend for LPGA bettors. Six of the last eight tournaments have been won by either the second, third, fourth, or fifth player in the world. Our most recent winner in Malaysia is the fourth-ranked player in the world, Miyu Yamashita. Why is this difficult? These are the weekly tournament favorites. Last week in Kuala Lumpur, Yamashita (+500), Ruoning Yin (+670), and Haeran Ryu (+780) all held pre-tournament odds under 8-1! Starting this week, Yamashita opened at +400 and Thitikul at +480. With four rounds guaranteed in these fall Asia events and a limited field of LPGA players, one can see why this trend is taking place. Can we sneak a middle-tier player past Miyu and Jeeno? Unlikely considering their recent form, but we have to try. After all, they haven't won them all!
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Congratulating Miyu Yamashita on her second win in seven events or third win this season takes me back a few years on this very week. The first time RTL backed Yamashita to win was the TOTO Japan Classic in 2022. Miyu was tearing up the Japan-LPGA and was +3500 to win; Yamashita finished fifth. Last year, we were touting another rising star on the JLPGA, Shiho Kuwaki. Kuwaki, now 23 years old, has won four times on the JLPGA in 2026 and is the reigning AIG Women's Open champion. Who could forget her playoff win over Esther Henseleit? The Yamashita outright from 2022 is a full-circle story, but more important to covering this week in a field of 78 players, the 35 women from the JLPGA are 100% worth watching. In the past two seasons, players who started on the JLPGA have won 13 LPGA tournaments. If you love LPGA events as much as we do at RTL, TOTO is a very important preview week for future worldwide women's talent.

The LPGA is still across the Pacific Ocean for ONE more week, the golf starts on Wednesday night!

"Tournament" venue

The field of 78, in which we have 10 of the top 25 in the Rolex World Rankings and six of the 17 winners on the LPGA in 2026, returns to the Taiheiyo Club's Minori Course for the fifth time in 10 years. The Taiheiyo Club is a network of 18 courses in Japan. The Minori Course is their flagship tournament venue. This par 72 layout measures 6,598 yards on the official scorecard. In the four Japan Classics contested on the Minori Course, that average winning score is 18.3 under par. The course presents a stout set of par 3s and 5s, but the average par 4 is 385 yards. Well below the weekly LPGA average length, seven of the 10 par 4s are under 400 yards in length. Beautiful Bentgrass greens set the stage for this scoring landscape. The fairways, approaches, tees, and rough are all Zoysia. Japan's natural agronomy creates some of the finest playing surfaces in the world. Ten holes have water in play, and the course is covered in 52 bunkers. The last time the ladies came to the Minori Course was in 2023. Mone Inami was the winner (-22), and she followed the current trend of five Japanese winners in the past six years of the TOTO Japan Classic.

The Zoysia fairways should drain as long as the deluge is reasonable. Those putting surfaces are going to be receptive. The Minori Course does take these women on a bit of a hike. The overall walk is five miles, and the field will climb roughly 340' over the course of 18 holes. Japan is known for its topography, and the Minori Course presents a number of terrain changes. I remember this course vividly as a fabulous parkland layout. Tons of water to contend with and a proper allocation of precise bunkering. The two nines sit on opposite sides of the clubhouse. The past champions specific to this venue all have a stout resume. The most recent winner, Mone Inami, is a 13-time winner on the JLPGA and the silver medalist when the 2021 Summer Olympics were contested in Japan. Jiyai Shin (2020) owns two AIG Women’s Open titles and 11 total LPGA wins and 32 wins on the JLPGA. Then there's Shanshan Feng. Feng has 23 professional wins across Japan, Europe, and the LPGA along with one major championship. Does all of this point toward the favorites holding an advantage over a field of 35 LPGA and 43 LPGA players? Yes, but as usual, we will dive into the playability of this golf course and the field. Who knows? There may be another Japanese star or major champion in the field ready to make a run at these two top four players in the world.

How to win?

Our venue presents a number of opportunities for a few of the middle tier, and maybe even a long shot, to compete with the world's best women. Local knowledge will surely play a role as the TOTO leaderboards are always covered with JLPGA talent. A glance at the 2023 top 10 and seven of those women were from Japan. Worth noting, Shiho Kuwaki, Aki Iwai, and Rio Takeda were three of them. With $2.1 million in the purse and $315,000 on the line for first, these ladies will be locked in to try and take down Thitikul and Yamashita. Each week on the PGA Tour and LPGA is a puzzle. Both Jeeno and Miyu are in great form and winning. Since we aren't going to back a player at 4-1, we need to figure out what the skill set is needed to take home this title. Soft conditions are going to stretch the golf course. Going back to 2023, driving accuracy did not directly correlate to success. The layout has 11 dogleg drives and favors a left-to-right ball flight. That right-handed power fade is an edge across 56 drives over four rounds. To compound the advantage one can gain off the tee, four holes do not even present a fairway bunker or penalty area to contend with. I like aggressive drivers this week who have their eyes on scoring.
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The Minori Course under soft conditions will require 24+ subpar scores to win. Picking the best BoB% players is a must. Much like the men’s face in Mexico, this should be a high-teens final score shootout. Especially if the rain delays the start of the tournament and they start after the storm. We could see preferred lies and ball-in-hand off Zoysia fairways. Most major champions possess a great birdie-to-bogey ratio. I believe that will be important if you plan to keep pace with the favorites. Miyu Yamashita's scoring average is 18 under par over her last five starts! Where will the scoring take place on the Minori Course? Four of the par 4s are under 365 yards in length. That's a driver-wedge for most of these women. Two of the par 5s can be set up by the officials under 475 yards. That's six holes where if you average 4.5 under par across four days equates to 18 under par on Sunday.
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A big part of scoring on those shorter holes comes down to scrambling. I say this often, but the best short games are not just used to save pars. Scoring from 40 to 80 yards this week will lead to climbing the leaderboard. I like proven short-range scorers on this course. Especially when you consider the turf conditions. Wedges are going to grab the putting surface. The women do not have to worry as much about spinning the ball backwards as the men. As such, their approaches will land like lawn darts. Find the right proximity players with any type of wedge in their hand, and we have a chance. Of the 52 bunkers across this course, 70% of them are found greenside. Chances are everyone will find one or two over the course of four days. Taking the best scramblers won't hurt our chances when and if we do find the sand. Scrambling also promotes a positive birdie-to-bogey ratio. Another analytic I already touched upon.
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One of the reasons I prefer scrambling rankings versus strokes gained around the green is that it includes putting. The putter will be a primary component to contending along with iron play. Smooth and soft Bentgrass greens will favor the best putters. The LPGA lacks a deep dive into a number of statistical categories, but if you take the time to research any one skill over a variety of rankings, you can get a great snapshot. LPGA.com has strokes gained putting rankings. I like to combine them with various other putting averages in order to find the best flatstick aficionados. Converting 20+ scoring chances requires a low putts per GIR and putts per green matters. Not to mention, we have not competed here since 2023. Competing on a "new" venue will give an edge to the better putters. A majority of the best players in the field were here in 2023, but that was three years ago.
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Proximity to the hole is the most important skill opportunity on the Minori Course. Players are going to have a scoring iron in their hand more than two-thirds of the round. Soft putting surfaces are going to hold the ball. All of our outrights are ranked in the top 10 in this field on approach (LPGA or JLPGA rankings). Miyu Yamashita is not! This is an outright opportunity. A +400 moneyline equates to roughly 20% of win equity. We have two players in the 4-1 range, that's 40% of the win potential in this tournament! The path is not easy, and we need players who are proximity proficient with a wedge in their hand; from close range and the fairway. The soft conditions will help raise a player's ability to knock it close and that will help. Will it help Miyu and Jeeno as well, yes, but overall by making the course play easier it brings more players into the winner conversation. To support the SG: APP rankings, I also considered scoring on the 4s and 5s. I'm particularly interested in the 5s because that is a compilation stat. Players who can score on standard par 5s are excellent approach players, scramblers, putters, and efficient off the tee. That recipe represents our opportunity in a nutshell.
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This is the last event on the fall Asia swing. Four weeks of overnight golf are about to conclude. Get ready for a quick finish as only the top 60 on the CME points list play in the Tour Championship. Next week, we get to see Nelly Korda for the first time since August in a stroke play event along with our first full field since Hawaii. The pressure is mounting and I cannot wait to see it play out starting with this week in Japan.

Outright Winners - TOTO Japan Classic

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