Brand new

Two hours northeast of Las Vegas in southwest Utah sits a stunning setting of red rock mountains overlooking beautiful black lava fields. The Black Desert Championship is a new event on the schedule and if this landscape is any precursor of the competition, it should be very entertaining. Designed by Tom Weiskopf and Phil Smith, the course opened in 2023. Not only is this a new event, but this is a brand-new course. In many ways, it fits the fall. We always see new names popping up in autumn on leaderboards. Look at last week in Mississippi. Kevin Yu wins in a playoff over Beau Hossler.

If you saw my Monday Odds Drop article in Golf Digest, then you know where I see value in a betting board like Black Desert. We are going to attack the mid-range. Players in the +3000-9000 that can win a tournament. Congrats to Kevin for his brilliant birdie on the first extra hole. The PGA TOUR is extremely deep in talent, and when the world's best take the fall off, the middle tier at the top of the betting board cannot separate from the field. What does that mean? The difference between Scottie, Xander, and even Russell Henley is pretty significant over Keith Mitchell or Kurt Kitayama. When Xander is a favorite, you can see the value in taking him against a field of 131 other players at short odds.

Schauffele can differentiate from the other players with his talent. Seamus Power is a solid player, but the skill gap between him and Patton Kizzire is minimal at best. As we shop for value in these fall events, you now have a better idea of why we just don't take the favorite in weaker fields.

Black Desert Championship starts in...

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Resort life

Southwest Utah plans to be pretty warm this week. The forecast calls for temperatures to reach the low 90s all four rounds. Considering the region, the humidity will be very low and surprisingly the wind too. The breeze spikes every afternoon around 5:00pm, but only to nine or 10 mph. No rain on the radar and the course looks ideal for scoring. Black Desert's Championship course is a par 71 design measuring 7,371 yards. That sounds long with seven par 4s stretching over 450 yards and three par 4s on the back nine reaching over 500+ that's what the paper will lead you to believe. Ivins, Utah sits at 3,000 feet above sea level. Playing at this elevation will increase carry by approximately three to four percent. BDR's 7,300 yards just became 7,100 yards.

A field of 132 rookie players on this course will have to contend with learning these lava fields very quickly. The purse is $7.5 million, and the winner will receive $1.35 million. The money is nice, but everyone in the field would rather solidify their spot for 2025 and two more years on TOUR with a win. Even as a new venue, the Black Desert selection makes "fall sense." I believe this will be another offseason birdiefest. Better get to 20 under par if you plan to contend. With an average green size of 7,000 sq/ft, three reachable par 5s, and 51 acres of fairway(!) these players will play very aggressively.

The style and setting of this course remind me of the new venue we saw last year for the World Wide Technology Championship in Cabo. Ultra-wide fairways led to an absolute scoring barrage for four days. With no wind, elevation, and incredible course conditions, the only thing that can possibly slow these guys down will be the firmness of the turf. Even though Scottie and the rest are going to sit this one out, 21 of the top 100 in the OWGR are here and they (along with their peers) can go deep.

Read The Line recap 🗞️ We began our research for the 2025 Ryder Cup at Bethpage Black this week in Times Square, New York City. On Tuesday, Captains Keegan Bradley and Luke Donald held a "one year out" press conference. No surprises from either side, both are very focused on next September. The two biggest questions of the day covered, "can Keegan play on the team, and what will crowd control be like?" One year out and we're worried about the crowds... oh boy!

Red rocks and numbers

The blueprint for Black Desert is very straightforward. It starts with an aggressive approach off the tee. Players with extra length will be grossly rewarded in the Utah desert. The scorecard looks long, but if guys gain three/four percent of carry then all of the sudden, they can reach 600 yard par 5s and hit scoring irons into 500 yard par 4s. Most of our card will include powerful players. I want guys who like to hit driver deep and don't necessarily have the best accuracy. Fifty-one acres of fairway is twice the amount of short grass we usually see on TOUR. The closer you can get to the hole off the tee this week the better.

The approach game is going to be very similar to most weeks in the fall. Scoring irons (GW, PW, 9, 8) will lead the charge. Proximity to the hole is important as we know who creates the most birdie chances. Guys are going to score by beating up on the par 5s, the two short par 4s, and two wedge length par 3s. Since most of the field makes birdie on those holes, approaches on the long par 4s will be the opportunity to differentiate. Again, the longer the drive, the closer those iron shots in will be, but with five par 4s over 480 yards, I'm looking deep into who plays that length of hole the best.

Par 4 scoring tells a story and especially when you look precisely at who plays the long par 4s well. Chances are those are the same guys who play par 5s well too! Think about it, the eleventh hole this week is a par 4 measuring 532 yards. Last week in Mississippi, the eleventh hole was a 550-yard par 5. The same player will use a similar strategy on both holes. Drive it as far down the fairway as you can and hit the shortest club on approach possible. By comparing those scoring stats, it becomes quite clear who can (and will) take advantage of more than half the holes at Black Desert.

The best weapon when attacking a brand-new venue is the putter. That's the one club that translates to immediate success. Good putters roll the rock well everywhere and more importantly can read greens. We already know you will need a bunch of birdies, and you can't hit every approach to five feet. Much like the Bermudagrass specialists last week at the CC of Jackson, now we are looking for the Bentgrass boys. With 132 rookies in the field there is an edge on the greens. A deeper look into who putts well on desert courses with Bentgrass or Bent-Poa greens leaves us with another list to cross reference with the approach numbers.

Power, precision from the fairway, and putting are the foundation of this week's card. By looking at various leaderboards from similar resort venues, I also feel we have done the homework necessary to cash a successful card. In the end, model all you want, but if you cannot break down a course from a professional experience POV, then it will be tough to learn who has the best chance to succeed. I loved studying this venue. The course won't earn any architecture "favorites" posts, but Weiskopf is a wizard at creating excellent risk-reward holes, look at TPC Scottsdale. Yes, ;-) another one of his designs and an extra set of hidden clues that will get us closer to win #11!

Outright Winners - Black Desert Championship

One of the longest players on TOUR is rookie Michael Thorbjornsen. Thorbjornsen finished T8 last week at the Sanderson Farms. Michael has gained with the putter in three straight events. A Stanford player, Michael has plenty of western desert style golf experience. Everyone will be a rookie this week in Utah, so I'm taking MT's talent. Michael Thorbjornsen +3500

We all have been watching Jacob Bridgeman very closely. He has three top 20s in his last four events. Bridgeman is a top 3 putter in the field. He has gained positively with the putter in six straight events. Even with average ball striking, Jacob is a scoring machine ranked top 20 in BoB% and birdies gained. Bridgeman is ranked fourth in par 4 scoring and elite when it comes to playing long (500+ yard) par 4s. Jacob Bridgeman +6600

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Inside the ropes at the 2023 Genesis Invitational

Far east

The LPGA has set sail for the far east and will play four weeks in a row with limited fields returning through Hawaii and untimely concluding their season in Naples, Florida (God and Mother Nature willing). Our thoughts and prayers go out to everyone affected by Helene and for whatever lies ahead with Milton.

Keep in mind, we are now on a much different schedule. Golf will begin on Wednesday night for the next couple weeks. Make sure you get those weekend wagers in before the events begin! We love the Buick LPGA Shanghai as it brought us win #14 last year for the season. Angel Yin (+5000) won in a playoff over two-time major champion Lilia Vu. There is l nothing better than getting paid while you sleep!

The Buick started in 2018. Covid caused the LPGA to cancel 2020, 21, and 22. The event returned last year and will be using the same venue. Qizhong Garden Golf Club is set in the southern center of metropolitan Shanghai. I wouldn't want to be in charge of weekend tee times, the city is home to 25 million people. A parkland layout, the ladies have a limited history thanks to losing three event years. None the less, we are digging deep to win the Buick for the second year in a row. Yin was one of my favorite wins of the season. It was her first, it came over the number one player in the world, and it was 50-1!

Buick LPGA Shanghai starts in...

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Shanghai surprise

A field of 81 players is set to take on this Shanghai scorecard. Four rounds for everyone, there is not cut this week. The purse is $2.1 million which makes traveling across the globe worth it to those who qualify for the limited field. First-place takes home $315,000 and solidifies her spot in the season ending CME Group Tour Championship. The others are certainly competing for those coveted points. Eight of the top 25 in the Rolex World rankings made the trek to China. Not the strongest field, this event has the second smallest purse of the fall Asia swing.

The forecast is rather mild with temperatures in the high 70s and very little wind. A breeze in the single digits is expected each day, but that is about it. There's no rain currently predicted, and the course is in impeccable shape. The average winning score through three editions of the Buick is 14 under par. Considering there is no cut, the course must present a decent test. The greens are covered in Bentgrass while the surrounds, fairways, and rough are Bermudagrass. Quite the combination of skills is needed to master both of those surfaces in the same parkland setting.

Qizhong Garden GC is a par 72 layout measuring 6,672 yards. The standard scorecard of four par 3s and 5s complemented by 10 par 4s. Twelve holes have water in play, and the course is covered in bunkers with tree lined fairways. It is a target test for these women. What is interesting based upon that brief breakdown are the winners of the first three Buicks. Danielle Kang won the first two and then Yin a year ago. Kang is a ball striker. Excellent on approach and OTT her career has been all about accuracy. Angel on the other hand is an average ball striker (at best) and the LPGA's #1 ranked putter this season. Talk about a tale of two tournament winners it shows that our card should be diversified to succeed.

Garden club

If two totally different players can win here, what are the qualities we are looking for in our outright card? Be careful judging a venue by just the winner. I looked back through all three leaderboards and got a great sense of the players who succeeded. By analyzing those ladies, I see a couple of common trends. Let's start T2G, the 12 women who finished in last year's top 10 (ties) averaged just over three strokes gained against the field T2G. That's an incredibly low number. Two weeks ago, that value was double at the Walmart. What does that low number mean?

Strokes gained is a measure of how well you can separate from the other players based upon specific skills. T2G covers everything but putting and a strokes gained value that low succinctly shows that players cannot distance themselves from the field on this course. The average winning score is 14 under par. QGGC is a tough track. Winning scores in the low teens reinforce this theme. Watch for accuracy and bogey avoidance this week. Players who finished in that 2023 top 10 hit an average of 80% of the GIRs and 79% of their fairways. Catching the theme yet. Put the ball in play more often than your competition here and you'll be a part of the conversation come Sunday.

Approach carries the largest weight of the three T2G skills. Off the tee is second and around the green is third. If you look at the overhead of this property all you see is trouble. Each hole has a minimum of what looks like five bunkers and one-third of the acreage is covered in water. Watch out for those double bogeys and that's what it means to "keep it in play." Better approach players have an advantage whether it shows up in the stroke gained stats or not. This plays like a tough second shot golf course. The greens have sections, and putting from one part to the other is where you will lose shots. The ladies who can gain in proximity this week are on our card.

Putting ranked as the highest gain category. Surely that makes sense last year since Angel Yin won and gained nine strokes on the field with her flatstick. Looking a little deeper, nine of the top 12 players gained over 2.5 strokes on the greens. That's a substantial trend and one I am paying serious attention to. Just like Angel last year, I believe better putters have a distinct advantage in Shanghai. Watch this week as the women try to navigate these undulating greens. I know that golf is on overnight but watch some of the highlights and look at the character of these surfaces, some of them are pretty wild.

The par 4s played the toughest last year and pinpoint another area where there's an edge. Get the best par 4 scorers on your card and take advantage of those 10 holes. Score on the 5s, survive on the 3s, and separate on the 4s. That blueprint always works on a tough test like Qizhong Garden. Seven of the 10 par 4s have water in play. Keep that ball dry and manage that bogey avoidance. If you can get to 15 under par in four days, you probably win or get in a playoff. I combined the best par 4 and 5 players into one list. Those women will get it done here.

The women get started Wednesday night. It has been a couple weeks since they last played and that was a 54-hole event in Arkansas. Most of the experienced players in this field haven't played in three weeks or more. Some have been on a break since the AIG Women's Open. The final fall run is here and it’s time to secure your spot in the CME. I've got a great feeling about this venue and who will play well. Sometimes you can just really read a course, and this Shanghai setting is going to deliver again. I love the PGA TOUR venue as well, and I’m confident that for the third time this year we can win twice on a Sunday...

Outright winners - Buick LPGA Shanghai

The books keep cutting Sei Young Kim's number. The reason why, they know she can win. Kim started the season with six straight top 20s. An injury plagued summer is now behind her and the results are coming with a nineteenth at the Kroger and third in Arkansas. In her last two Buick's, Kim has finished sixth and second. Kim hits a ton of GIRs and can putt, a lethal combination for this venue. Sei Young Kim +2500

Yu Liu must have known this event was next when she finished seventeenth at the Walmart. It was her best finish of the season. Liu was just getting ready for the Buick where she has finished ninth, third, and third in her three starts. Yu has the best cumulative record in the event with three starts of anyone in the field. She's from Beijing and must feel at home in her native country. The Duke star has always been a sub-par scoring machine. Yu Liu +8000

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