Golf Analysis, Birdie Banter, and Bonafide Insights Every Week. As a subscriber to Read The Line, you'll elevate your sports knowledge.
How's Your Portfolio?
Win #5!
Congratulations to Marina Alex for her final round 66 and win at the Palos Verdes Championship! Alex was one of our LPGA outright predictions last week and she went off at +9000 or 90-1 odds to win. She took down the #1 player in the world Jin Young Ko and other LPGA stars such as Lydia Ko and Lexi Thompson.
Marina marks our 5th outright win of the year and our second winner this season of 90-1 odds. The first was Luke List at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. Read The Line was red hot contending the last couple weeks and it was really nice to hit this past Sunday for my members. Enjoy the victory and I'll get back to writing so we can win on back to back weeks!
Judging the market
The Wells Fargo Championship has moved. Historically this tournament is played at Quail Hollow in Charlotte, but in 2022 they are preparing to host the President's Cup in September. Instead TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm outside Washington DC stepped up and they will host the biennial matches.
Good news, the Quicken Loans National was contested here on the PGA Tour in 2017 and 2018. So we have some historical data and trends to review. You'll find the player portfolio breakdown in the outrights section. Before we begin building that investment strategy, let's get a little forecast for the week ahead.
- Weather will play a major role in the storyline this week at TPC Potomac. Thursday looks very nice with temperatures in the mid 70's and mild conditions. After that, all bets are off! A front is moving in Friday with over an inch of rain predicted. Following that front, are cold and windy conditions. Temps will drop to the mid-50's and the wind will blow. Remember Saturday at the PLAYERS Championship? This could be just as difficult.
- In 2017, this course played as the most difficult non-major championship venue on tour.
- We're back to bent grass putting greens and an average of 3.5" of rough surrounding the fairways.
- This is a Par 70 golf course with only two Par 5's. By the way, in 2017 and 2018 those three shot holes ranked as the third toughest on the PGA Tour.
Scared yet? Wait until we break down the skill set needed to contend. This course is a ball strikers paradise. Of the four main Strokes Gained categories (Off the Tee, Approach, Around the Green and Putting), the winners ranked highest in putting. In fact, the average number of three putts per round is well below PGA Tour average. Get a feel yet of where to invest you attention? Now this is just the beginning of our breakdown!
| This version just scratches the surface - BECOME A MEMBER |
People are paying attention
The Preferred Lines podcast airs live on Monday nights. Host Joe Idone covers the course, betting board and always gives great insights into the PGA Tour each week. This past edition, Joe invited Keith on to discuss the Wells Fargo Championship. Joe loves Read The Line and was interested in gaining Keith's PGA perspective. Check out their rapport as they discuss the odds board and a couple other interesting golf topics. These two pop-culture kings can really get it going! Click the button or picture below!
| Preferred Lines Podcast |
Take these picks to the bank
TPC Potomac requires a very specific skill set. Most times when a golf course is this difficult, you can really narrow down the choices based upon the talents needed to contend. There's four here and this is the summary of "why."
- Strokes Gained:Off the Tee - You have to hit the ball in the fairway. You can probably stack a DFS lineup solely based upon this attribute alone. TPC Potomac rates very difficult in the difference between playing from the rough versus the fairway on approach. In the years the PGA Tour played here, the course ranked second in missed fairways leading to a penalty stroke.
- Par 4 Scoring - Eight of the toughest ten holes on the course are Par 4's. There are twelve in total and they will challenge your long iron game. Kyle Stanley and Francisco Molinari are both exceptional Par 4 players and have excellent long iron acumen. This year's winner will as well.
- Bad Bunkers - Based upon those average approach yardages, players are going to miss some greens. And when they do, fifty-two greenside bunkers will be waiting for them. In 2017, TPC Potomac ranked as the third most difficult for saving par from the sand. The bunkers are deep and downright nasty. When the tournament is on the line Sunday, better make sure your contender can get up and down.
- Bogey Avoidance - In 2017, The Top 20 finishers all gained strokes in Bogey Avoidance against the field. This is a US Open style setup that calls for patience. The cutline in both years was over par and ten holes carry a bogey percentage of fifteen percent or higher.
Take those four elements and place them into a statistical model and the first name that jumps out is Corey Conners. I've always said it comes down to more than stats, so I will combine his "fit" with a recent form of twelfth place at the RBC Heritage and his third Top 10 finish at the Masters last month. Prepared for bad weather? Hey, he's from Canada!
He finished fifth at the PLAYERS, eighth at the Valero and fourth at the Zurich just a couple weeks ago. Keegan Bradley is an unbelievable ball striker and ranks fourth in the field Strokes Gained:Tee to Green. He consistently plays well in the northeast where he is from and played college golf. He's powerful and poised to crack the win column. Why? His last win in 2018 came at Aronomink in Philadelphia. Another brutal layout they played in cold wet conditions. Sound familiar? Bet him!
What if the best SG:OTT player was also the best SG:T2G player? You would run to the betting window and invest. Cam Young contends on all kinds of golf courses. He finished Top 5 this season at Sanderson Farms, Genesis and RBC Heritage. That portfolio of finishes couldn't be any more diversified. Cam Young is about to break through and don't be the investor that misses it.
There's a certain type of player the pops at the US Open. They drive it well, are skilled at the short game and can putt the lights out. Brian Harman will be relevant on Sunday because all the attributes listed above he can excel at. Of that skill set, the one that stands out the most is his number one ranking in Par 4 scoring. This is a grinder's course and Brian Harman is the ultimate fighter when challenged by the conditions. Add him to your investments this weekend and watch for that putter to pay you some dividends.
Outright Winners - Wells Fargo Championship
Corey Conners (+2000)
Keegan Bradley (+3500)
Cam Young (+4100)
Brian Harman (+6600)
5 wins this season and counting...
Check out all the content you get by becoming a premium member.
Take those LPGA winnings from last week and invest in Read The Line!
Subscribe to our Premium Newsletter to see all of our betting predictions...
- PGA Tour DFS lineup
- LPGA DFS lineup
- Detailed Prop bet analysis for the PGA and LPGA tour!
- PGA Professional coaching tips
- PGA Tour One and Done selection
- PGA Tour Head to Head matchup predictions
- LPGA Head to Head matchup predictions
- "Celebrity Insider" interviews!
Head right to our website and join! Read The Line.
DISCLAIMER: Read The Line provides information and insights concerning the game of golf, aimed at creating more intelligent sports fans. Read The Line does not seek to encourage any of our readers, members or users to engage in sports betting or otherwise make wagers based on the information and insights provided. Any betting or wagers made by readers, members or users are undertaken at their own risk and such activity does not give rise to any legal responsibility on the part of Read The Line. For more information, please refer to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
Think you have a gambling problem? Reach out for help. Read The line promotes responsible gaming. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit these online resources:
Read The Line
Golf Analysis, Birdie Banter, and Bonafide Insights Every Week. As a subscriber to Read The Line, you'll elevate your sports knowledge.
Oh Captain, my captain HILTON HEAD ISLAND, SC Do you want the good news, or the bad news? Here’s the bad news, Scottie Scheffler looks unstoppable and has nine wins, two PLAYERS Championships, and two green jackets in three years. The good news? All of those wins have come before the second week in April. That gives us all hope we can win a bet this summer against Scheffler! I’m not going to dwell on his performance, mainly because he will probably do the same thing this week at the RBC...
The 88th Masters AUGUSTA, GA It has been 259 days since Brian Harman lifted the Claret Jug. The final two majors of 2023 may have just been a premonition of what we will see in 2024! Expect the unexpected this season on the PGA TOUR as we have had one long shot winner after another. Along those lines, who might have guessed Scottie Scheffler would begin figuring out the flatstick for a short stretch around THE PLAYERS? Or how about when Jon Rahm’s fealty fell by the wayside, and he left for...
Deep in the heart of Texas The hits just keep on coming in 2024. Sunday closed with three LPGA top 10 prop wins missing by a single stroke. With just three groups left on the course, we were four for four. Nelly Korda (+110), Lydia Ko (+210), Sei Young Kim (+260), and Gabriela Ruffels (+500) were all inside the top 10. By the time the Ford Championship finished, only Korda was left and the other three missed by a single stroke. Bad beats like Wyndham’s lip out at THE PLAYERS are one thing,...