Texas two-step

Matt Fitzpatrick becomes only the second player to win a PGA TOUR event this year with pre-tournament outright odds under +3000 (30-1). The other? Scottie Scheffler. If Strokes Gained Consistency were an analytic category, Fitzpatrick would be leading the TOUR. In Matt's last 23 starts, he has 2 wins and 12 top 10s! Not bad for the 2022 US Open Champion. One of those wins? The DP World Tour Championship, where Fitz separated himself from Rory, Tommy, and Ludvig, all on the final nine. Matt bogeyed the final hole at THE PLAYERS to lose, and yet in an incredible show of grit, put himself in contention once again. Congratulations to Matt and his team, including world-class coach Mark Blackburn. If you are looking for a player just below the big boys on the betting board in major championships this season, a little Fitz-magic may do you some good.

The schedule takes us to Texas for two weeks in the run-up to the year's first major championship; The 90th Masters. The Texas Children's Houston Open has found an appropriate home on the calendar. I write that for several reasons. First, Memorial Park is a wonderful venue for golf every day of the week. Not only are they hosting the Houston Open this week, and the LPGA's first major, the Chevron Championship, in four weeks, but they also welcome 60,000 plus municipal golfers every year! Twenty of the top 50 players in the OWGR, and Brooks Koepka (#162), are in the field competing for $9.9 million and a PGA TOUR title.

Texas Children's Houston Open starts in...

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Municipal

The second reason Memorial Park is rewarded for resting in March on the TOUR calendar and not in November, where it started, is the blueprint of the venue. Tournament officials have built a four-day examination that mirrors the skill set players will need to contend in two weeks at Augusta National. Other courses on the calendar provide a major style test, but Memorial Park, with its large green complexes, challenging surrounds, and wide open tee shots, is the perfect preview for everyone in the field. The par 70 scorecard measures 7,475 yards. The average par 4 length at Memorial Park? 469 yards. The average par 4 length at ANGC? 456 yards. The greens are 7,000 sq/ft (on average), Augusta National’s are 6,500 sq/ft. ANGC has 44 perfectly positioned bunkers, and Memorial Park has 24 bunkers. A select few holes with key water elements, and each course has a noticeable lack of punitive rough alongside the generous fairways. I think you get the picture at this point. Even though everyone from the world's number one down to the lowest-ranked player in the field is here to win, let's not overlook what's really on everyone's mind. The top 50 in the OWGR gain entrance into the Masters after the Houston Open, and the winner, if not already in the field at Augusta, earns a gate pass for Magnolia Lane as well.

Since the move to March, Stephan Jaeger won a firm Houston Open at 12 under par, and Min Woo Lee (RTL outright +3500) won on a rain-soaked Memorial Park at 20 under par. Vegas set the winning score over/under at -15.5 under par. With dry conditions, I would favor the lower total by Jaeger as a target score for this week. Since the first two springtimes were so different agronomically, I think it is worthwhile to look at the November editions as well. The course played tougher in the fall when the Bermudagrass was featured, and the weather was a bit cooler. Temperatures will be in the 80s, but we are going to experience some of those fall grass conditions. The average cutline is +1.2 over par for all five editions, and I think we will see that number again. At the risk of sounding redundant to my colleagues’ coverage, Tom Doak worked with Brooks Koepka in 2019 on this golf course renovation. The green complexes are unique, and power is definitely favored. Does Brook's design eye give him an edge? No more so than he has already in a regular-season PGA TOUR event when he is striking the ball as well as he currently is.

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How to win?

Memorial Park is one of my favorite venues on the PGA TOUR because it truly measures players in this modern era of professional golf. The fact we all can go play it next week in between a TOUR event and a LPGA major championship just makes the course even cooler. What do I mean by a modern test? The first skill every elite professional player is seeking in 2026 is speed. Look what adding speed has done for the weekly consistency of Matt Fitzpatrick. Memorial Park favors ball speed. With one of the smallest penalties for missing the fairway, the field is forced to choose the driver more than 80% of the time. If you can differentiate yourself with the big stick, this is your public playground. Others will go on about the need for speed at length, but I am going to use this opportunity to compare Memorial Park to a couple of other distance-favoring venues. I have already spoken about Augusta National, and the comps are definitely there, but let's add Quail Hollow, Torrey Pines South, and TPC Toronto to that list. Look at those leaderboards, and then look at your models. The names are THE SAME.

A par 70 scorecard at nearly 7,500 yards will have some decent length approaches. Favoring those who can achieve elite proximity from 200 yards plus is another key. The average par 3 is 191 yards. Players will face five par 4s over 490, and two of the three par 5s are over 615 yards! Mid and even long iron play is essential. Min Woo Lee, Stephan Jaeger, Tony Finau, Jason Kokrak, and Carlos Ortiz are all elite ball strikers. Their putters definitely popped those weeks, but they all came in with speed and the consistent ability to hit GIRs from very long range. Players who can separate over 200 yards from the target have an advantage. Possibly an even greater advantage than those who can just bomb it, but at this level, many of those guys possess that complementary skill set.

Every winner at Memorial Park has gained six strokes (or more) on the field with their flatstick. Doak's designs are always difficult when it comes to the green complexes. Memorial Park's greens are large. Approach or lag putting is a measurable stat and one that should be favored. Guys will even use the "Texas wedge" off the green. The closer a player can get over 72-holes on their first roll alleviates a ton of pressure. Everyone talks about Scottie's ball striking, and they should. Not enough betting pundits mention his lag putting ability. It is elite, and one of the reasons why he has finished runner-up here two years in a row. Limit your three putting by converting everything inside 8'. The field will also have to adapt to the greens. There are going to be areas that react like Bermudagrass, and others like Valspar and TPC Sawgrass with the Poa Trivialis overseed. Stay patient, and knock in those close ones.

The closest comp to Memorial Park from a short game perspective is not only ANGC, but I also see a ton of Southern Hills. Houston's best public golf venue features so many closely mown areas surrounding these putting surfaces. With just 24 bunkers, get ready for tight turf. Watch the grain, as Bermudagrass is mixing in with the overseed. That trap is waiting around every corner. Handling those key scoring moments with the grass combo challenge will only place more weight on around the green skill. The winner gains approximately two strokes on the field with their short game. I see that value going up in 2026 based on the agronomy and firmness. Keep an eye on the wedge wizards, as they will have a distinct advantage to hang around all weekend.

Pay attention to the par 70 scorecard. This is a funky one as it has five par 3s and three par 5s. Par 70s usually favor par 4 killers, and that's still the case at Memorial Park. For the second week in a row, we have five par 3s. Twenty-eight percent of the course requires scoring on the 3s. It made a difference at Innisbrook, and it will in Houston as well. Over five editions, the average winning score is 14 under par. The winners average 22 sub-par scores. Bogey avoidance and birdie-to-bogey ratio matter more than most weeks on the PGA TOUR. Just one more reason why Memorial Park has found the perfect place on the TOUR's calendar. The Florida swing has been four straight weeks of challenging golf, and Houston is no different. Except maybe in one element, with the Masters looming in less than two weeks, players are thinking more about major championships than FedEx points.

Outright Winners - Texas Children's Houston Open

LPGA

Triple digits

Three top 10 winning tickets, a 3-0 H2H card, and two outrights finished inside the top 5 in California. I had interest in Hyo Joo Kim last week, evidenced by the top 10 prop. Ultimately, I went in a different direction, and we lost, but the process is still proven on the LPGA tour as our prop/H2H card brought us a positive week. It's good to see many of the LPGA stars in action, including the world's number two-ranked golfer, Nelly Korda. The betting favorite for the Ford Championship presented by Wild Horse Pass, the field better start playing, or we could have a 2024 spring run by Nelly all over again. Korda won six events, including the Chevron Championship between late January and mid-May that year. That run included four wins in a row! One of those four wins was the Ford Championship. That edition was held at a different venue. One hundred and forty-four women will compete for $2.25 million in the Arizona desert. We experienced some heat in San Francisco for the Fortinet Founders Cup, and this week will be worse. Triple-digit temperatures are in the forecast as 39 of the top 50 women in the Rolex World rankings get set to try and win a $337,500 first place check.

Whirlwind adventure

The Ford Championship started in 2024. The 2025 edition took us to the Whirlwind Golf Club in Chandler, Arizona. Southeast of Phoenix, the LPGA uses its Cattail Course for the Ford Championship. It's a stereotypical desert layout nestled in the foothills of the Sierra Estrella Mountains. Set at 1,150 feet above sea level, Hyo Joo Kim is your defending champion. Kim won in a playoff over Lilia Vu at 22 under par. Eighteen (!) under par was needed to get in the top 10 on the final leaderboard. The women had better bring their birdie bag as the cut was four under par. The ninth-longest course on the LPGA schedule in 2025, elevation helps the shorter players contend. The average green size is 5,900 sq/ft on the Cattail Course. The greens are a mix of a Poa Trivialis overseed and Bermudagrass. Challenging weather conditions during the overseed process led to a bunch of seed scatter. Recent high temperatures have helped burn out the Poa, and the Bermuda has started to emerge. What does all of this mean? Take a player who can putt.

Up and over desert terrain, the course features 53 bunkers and five holes where water comes into play. The average par 5 is just over 500 yards (507), and half of the par 4s are under 400 yards. All of this at elevation makes the course play about 2% shorter than the par 72 scorecard measuring 6,661 yards. With the LPGA's first major championship coming in four events, it is no surprise that eight of the top 10 players in the world are competing. The layout has a left-to-right bias off the tee, and who could forget the first bounce on those green complexes? The women were chipping and pitching from everywhere around these putting surfaces. Of the 144 players competing, the top 65 and ties will make the weekend. Both Ford Championship winners are in the field along with 24 of the 28 rookies on tour this season.

How to win?

The greens were the toughest test on the Cattail Course last year. I know that sounds funny, as the winning score was 22 under par, but good putters stood out on this venue in year one. That's where we are going to start for the second edition of the Ford at Whirlwind. Converting sub-par scoring chances is one part of this, but so is saving par and scrambling. The course played very firm last year, and I expect similar conditions again. They are in the middle of a 100-degree heat wave, and there is very little wind in the forecast. Fatigue, more than the flatstick, might be the real determining factor! Sharon Heights provided a nice preview of the Ford. Super warm temps in the Bay Area with little rain were a great prelude for what is to come in Arizona. Putts per GIR and average number of putts alongside strokes gained putting all give us a nice picture of who can roll the rock. The greens are going to separate this field just as they did last week at Sharon Heights.

Looking back at last year's outright card, we favored length off the tee. It was helpful, but not quite the differentiation point the putter and short game was. The second skill we are looking for is scrambling. The fairways and greens were bouncing last year. As such, balls that were not hit to the correct landing area ended up around the green surfaces in collection areas. Those tightly mown areas were difficult to play from! Lilia, Hyo Joo, and others in the top 10 got there with around the green acumen. It's not often the LPGA plays a venue that allows them to separate with their short game, but the Cattail Course is one of them. Scoring on these short par 4s and 5s also becomes a consideration, as many of those wedge shots are hit from an awkward yardage. The good news for RTL readers, the LPGA does not have a ton of great putters, chippers, and ball strikers. Sure, Nelly and Jeeno are two of them, but after that, it is a pretty small group when you throw in short game.

Approach play can be broken down into two categories for the Ford Championship. The first lens I'm looking through is spin control. Desert golf is a different animal with an iron in your hand. Arid conditions are not great for stopping a shot. The best ball strikers on the LPGA hit the ball with crisp contact. There were some great impact players at the top of the leaderboard last year. Ladies who can rip it, control the flight, and stopping power of each shot. Proximity on approach is vital to scoring, and with so many short irons into the hole locations. We want the best wedge players. The Cattail Course is not a mid-iron arena. The longest par 3 is 175 yards, and the longest par 4 is 417 yards. Take 2% off and add firm conditions, and these ladies will be right on top of each of these green complexes.

Does length help at Whirlwind's Cattail Course? Bombers such as Nanna, A Lim, and Charley did factor into the tournament in 2025. I think there can be two paths to victory here. Keep in mind, we have only seen this venue once. Granted, the conditions are very similar to what they were last year, but the bombers could take over in 2026. I think diversifying the card with one or two longer players would be a thoughtful approach. A strokes gained leader OTT would have a huge advantage IF they can chip and putt. That combination is not common on the LPGA tour, which will leave us with only a few names to whittle down. Along with the skill set we have already described, I'm looking for par 4 scorers and the best overall T2G players. It always helps to have one (or two) baseline stats in the RTL-LPGA proprietary LPGA model. All of the par 4s are scoreable on the Cattail. Players who can keep the ball in play and average 5+ sub-par scores per round are the target.

The LPGA is finally getting started in 2026. It has taken a while, and I am happy we grabbed an early-season win overseas. Once these women start playing regularly, the puzzle becomes clearer week to week. We were all over the Founders Cup, and I expect that momentum to continue in Arizona.

Outright Winners - Ford Championship

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