It ain't easy being green

CHARLOTTE, NC - Only three players have ever won The Masters and the PGA Championship in the same year: Sam Snead (1949), Jack Burke Jr. (1956), and Jack Nicklaus (1963, 1975). Of course, Nicklaus had to do it twice! Since the move to May in 2019, the yearly Masters Champion has only one top 10 in the PGA, and that was Scottie Scheffler at Valhalla. We all know what happened there! The others, Scheffler and Tiger, missed the cut following their Masters win; Hideki finished T23 and Rahm T50. Going back the last 15 years, only one Masters champion has gone on to win a different major championship, and that was Jordan Spieth in 2015.

Turns out winning a green jacket at Augusta doesn't have the after effects most major winners would want; winning more majors. Can Rory McIlroy reverse the curse and win two in a row? I cannot think of a better place for him to try. McIlroy has four wins at the Quail Hollow Club, host of the 107th PGA Championship. Standing in his way are 155 other competitors with designs on the same dream. They are just dreamers, but not Scottie Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau. Golf's current big three have no doubt distanced themselves from the field on more than just the odds board.

Make it rain

Unlike a majority of major venues, we have a ton of historical player data on the Quail Hollow Club. The PGA TOUR has been coming to Quail Hollow since 2003. QHC hosted the Presidents Cup in 2022 and the 99th PGA Championship back in 2017. Justin Thomas took home the Wannamaker trophy that week and bested an elite field in arid, August conditions. Even though the course has not seen many major changes since that championship, this edition will be completely different. The 99th PGA finished with 12 players under par. Looking back at that leaderboard, it was covered in scramblers. Kevin Kisner was the 54-hole leader! Patrick Reed finished runner-up, and Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Kuchar, Rickie Fowler, and Jason Day were all in contention.

A serious electrical storm is rolling through Charlotte as I am writing this on Tuesday afternoon. I've seen significant rain every day on property, and the forecast calls for more. The official scorecard may read par 71 and 7,626, but I can assure you it will play longer. The green surfaces are maintaining some firmness due to their age and the club's sub-air system. These greens were replaced before the 2024 Truist Championship. A lesson Quail Hollow learned after hosting its first PGA. Before the 2017 Championship, QHC renovated the course. Those newly sodded greens caused havoc in the championship. Players could not hold the putting surfaces, and around the green play became the most important contending characteristic.

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Keith's Keys 🗞️ A couple of key skills you can claim as your own at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. You can find complete explanations for each in the betting breakdown. The long draw: Rory McIlroy has won at Quail Hollow four times. Follow him around the course with a long draw off the tee, and you'll have his advantage on the field. 200+ approaches: Ten or 11 of these holes require an iron shot over 200 yards. Be prepared to use those mid and long irons effectively if you plan to win. Above all else, putt: Nine of the last 10 winners at Quail Hollow have gained three or more strokes on the field with their flatstick in route to winning.

That won't be the case this year. This event is going to play like a Truist (or Wells Fargo) tournament. I'll break that down further in the next section, but know this: a powerful "player" is going to win this week. Alongside the rainy conditions, temperatures are predicted to max out in the mid-80s. The breeze should be blowing in the 8-12 mph range, and the radar will require our attention. The field of 156 players will be reduced to the top 70 and ties after 36 holes. Notice I didn't say on Friday, as tournament officials will have their hands full finding time to play amongst the wet weather. Speaking of water, seven holes have water in play along with 61 specifically placed bunkers. The final six holes have both “hazards,” and we all know the final three by heart.

107th PGA Championship starts in...

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If you don't know the Green Mile by now, you will by the end of this week. Holes 16, 17, and 18 at Quail Hollow add up to 1,246 yards. A little less than an actual mile, but the stress these holes produce under championship pressure makes one believe these guys would rather run a mile than play one! Since the PGA TOUR arrived at Quail Hollow, here's the best way I can summarize the Green Mile effect.

• Holes 1-15, the field is 1,290 strokes under par.
• Holes 16-18, the field is 7,683 strokes OVER par!
• All according to Shotlink data.

Las Vegas has the over/under for the winning score at 13.5 under par. The average winning score of the Truist Championship over the last five editions is 15 under par. In the last ten editions, it has dropped to 14 under par. Incorporating the wet conditions, players will be able to score here. There's going to be a couple of guys who go low in the first couple of days. That being said, the average cutline for Quail Hollow from 2012-2021 is two strokes over par. The cut at the 2017 PGA was six over par, but that was a crazy championship. Conditions were borderline out of control as players could not hold fairways or greens. QHC does have 26 acres of fairway. That's plenty of landing area for these boys, and the rough is not nearly what the reports say it is.

The drivers will have a field day as long as they can keep it out of the trees. That's a dangerous player complement. Asking the middle tier to go deep with the driver and nuclear with their putter is a weekly request. I think you'll see a bunch of the TOUR's most exciting players ascend the leaderboard. The result is what we have seen recently from this championship: an awesome event. The social media world complains about the PGA Championship every year. Fix this, do that, go back to August, etc. The truth is, the PGA does have an identity. It is the ONE major championship that tests all aspects of the modern game. Not to mention, Kerry Haigh and his team have navigated the move to May, the first major after COVID, a frost delay at Oak Hill, and now a daily monsoon in Charlotte. Scottie, Rory, and Bryson are ready to make a run at the Wannamaker trophy. What more could you ask for? Forget that I asked, and just enjoy the show!

PGA... Power, greens, accuracy

The three finest players in the world are ALL playing their best approaching the PGA Championship. My lens for picking the winner is quite focused. I know it's a major championship, but this narrative will be rather quick. You've heard from plenty of pundits across the board. Conquering Quail Hollow starts with ball speed off the tee. Rory McIlroy has won here four times because he is the best driver of the golf ball in the world. Take his superpower and match it to a design that significantly favors a right-to-left ball flight (a draw for right-handers). Tee shot after tee shot gives the longer draw biased player an advantage. My favorite example is number 16, a 529-yard par four where the green is set on a peninsula out into a small lake.

Players like Rory and Bryson DeChambeau, who both play a draw, will take it over the inside elbow of the dogleg. Their drives will hit the downslope and extend 50-60 yards past their competitors, who cannot carry that corner. They will hit an eight iron or less while the remainder of the field attacks with a five-iron. I think I'll take the two that are closer. This same situation happens again and again all over the course. Toss in the fact that Quail Hollow's rough is overseeded with Ryegrass and nowhere near the length listed on paper, and these guys will have an unreal edge.

To compound the advantage even further, the longer you can hit the ball off the tee, the closer you are to the next target. QHC boasts 10+ approaches over 200 yards for most of the field. Add another 20 yards off the tee (or more), and now you are hitting a more accurate club into the green. Again, over 72 holes, the proximity of the closer player represents a huge advantage. In summary, to start, we need uber-long drivers and accurate mid-iron players. I'm pretty sure the top three can handle that blueprint for success.

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The second edge you can look for on approach amongst your player pool is the ability to launch the ball higher than your peers with your irons. A superpower of Scottie Scheffler, this is why he is always pin high. Players who can hit it high off the turf have an advantage. A majority of guys can go up with the driver, but off the ground, only a few, and you know their names. The ground is super soft, but these green surfaces are only about 12-18 months old. It takes time for the sod to soften. Throw in the fact that QHC has sub-air, and the team is doing everything they can to dry these green complexes out. This is the one thing that can keep this championship in the mid-teens for scoring. Otherwise, we are looking at another Valhalla, and the redundant rhetoric about what an average venue this is, which is killing me already.

I'll throw in a couple of other skills that are important for the model maniacs. Par 4 scoring has always been a great differentiator at this course. The last 10 Quail winners gain an average of 10 strokes on the field playing the 4s. Tight lie chipping is a quality that can help keep a scorecard pointing in a positive direction. There are a couple of fairway bunkers out there that can cause trouble for these guys, and I like those who can strike it from any surface with an iron. The fact is, this is just a great test of golf. Not many places have hosted multiple majors, a Presidents Cup, and a TOUR event for over 20 years. When you consider comp courses and Augusta National Golf Club gets mentioned, that doesn't hurt either.

When it comes to comps, I like ANGC, Riviera, Kapalua, Valhalla, and Bay Hill. Difficult golf courses that require exceptional driving, accurate irons, and the ability to score on the greens. Each of these venues, including Augusta, is a distant second when it comes to the impact putting has on your ability to contend AND win. It may sound like hyperbole, but nine of the last 10 winners have gained over three strokes on the field with their flatstick. The winner's average separation over the last decade is six strokes! Please do not undervalue the effect a player can have on contending with their putter. Guys like Denny McCarthy and Patrick Reed are very valuable players in DFS lineups and prop cards. I don't think they can beat the top three, but when those pool contests separate the field into flights, make sure you favor putting (and length).

There's no reason to overthink Quail Hollow. The top three have short odds, so we will build a card that creates multiple revenue opportunities to try and take advantage. There's a vibe this week in Charlotte. The critics keep chirping from home, and to be honest, nobody on property cares. The players are focused on winning, Ryder Cup points, and making the cut at a major. Augusta can be somewhat subdued at times as everyone walks around gingerly; not this week. I'm turning the volume up on my Bluetooth speaker and enjoying every minute of the PGA Championship and our next win!

Outright Winners - 107th PGA Championship

It's pretty simple: if you like Rory to win this week, you should believe Bryson DeChambeau can win as well. The skill set matches, and his record at Quail Hollow is quite impressive. In his last two starts in Charlotte, DeChambeau has finished fourth and ninth. Bryson's last two starts at the PGA? A fourth at Oak Hill in 2023 and runner-up at Valhalla last year. Another fourth at Harding Park in 2020, and we know the big boy understands PGA setups. Let the shaft out, kid, and let's have a week! Bryson DeChambeau +1000

Don’t overlook Viktor Hovland this week. If there was ever a setup that fits Hovland’s game year after year, it is the PGA Championship. Kerry Haigh and the tournament officials love to feature speed off the tee, long iron acumen, and aggressive scoring potential. We all know Viktor can check all three of those boxes and has proven it by finishing runner-up in 2023 at the PGA and third one year ago at Valhalla. Viktor Hovland +5000

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