Undefeated

Three matches, and we are still undefeated (8-0), Trust me, this is not a victory lap. It shows when you do the research and watch on-site you gain an advantage. TGL is an opportunity, and one we will continue to take advantage of for the next two months! I'm off to the west coast for the next three weeks so I will not be inside SoFi Arena tonight. Last week, we didn't have the same star power in the lineups and the crowd was still into it. The Atlanta Drive team looked quite good and will be a contender with their team of four. I expect them to see one of tonight's teams in the playoffs. For my full TGL team power rankings read my preseason preview published by ​​Golf Digest​.

Match #4 starts with the return of Tiger Woods. His Jupiter Links Golf Club is taking on the boys from Boston Common Golf. If you thought LA versus Jupiter was a mismatch, then it's time to look away. Tiger red might be mistaken for a bloodbath tonight as BCG presents the best team on paper in the indoor league. The average world ranking of Rory's squad is 10! Are there any betting opportunities for JLGC against a preseason favorite like BCG? Keep reading to find out...

The format, course, and starting lineups

The TGL format will remain the same all season. If you missed the first couple of matches and you are curious how it works, their website does an excellent job of explaining the league rules with quick videos (​​TGL EXPLAINED​​).

Rory McIlroy starts us off tonight with the opening tee shot on Flex. An appropriately named 516-yard par 4, Woods will follow McIlroy's tee shot on the first hole of the evening. Since Boston Common starts the match, they also begin with the hammer. We didn't see any hammer action last week as once Atlanta took the early lead, there was no motivation to use it. This is one element they will need to work on for season two. Once a team starts to get a considerable lead, the losing team should be able to press (or something!). It would create a more competitive environment which would no doubt make the matches more entertaining.

Keith's "TGL" Keys 🗞️ A couple of key insights you can claim as your own idea at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. Ball speed wins: These holes are long, just watch the Tiger Rory H2H holes. It really won't be fair. Strategy: Triples is a unique format. Knowing when to play your strengths is a huge advantage. Par 3s: The three winning teams are still undefeated on the par 3s (5-0-10). Win the short ones and you win the match.

The layout has been altered once again. Your standard par 60 scorecard is a little shorter this week. Is that a reaction to Woods and Kisner being two of the shortest players in the league, or the match committee being a little more creative. I'll go with keeping it competitive as we have yet to have a match result determined on the last three holes. The par 5s are considerably shorter (on average) this week, and only one par 3 is over 200 yards. All eyes will be on "The Spear" when Tiger starts the singles matches against Rory. I'll be watching those par 3s again. Each match winner has yet to lose a par 3 hole. They are 5-0-10 on the diabolical short ones.

For the league to work, I imagine Tiger and Rory have already committed to playing each of their five matches. I was surprised to see Kisner back after his display two weeks ago against LAGC. Tom Kim joins the Jupiter Links squad for his first TGL experience. I consider Kim to be a very good choice for the league. Fans enjoy his exuberance, and we need some talkers on the telecast. Tom will be a breath of fresh air for TGL. (Captain) Keegan Bradley is Boston's secret weapon. No other TGL player exudes the competitive vibe like Keegan. It also doesn't hurt that his team is full of hall of famers. In fact, BCG is the only team to have all four players be major champions!

• Jupiter Links Golf Club (+125) - Tiger Woods, Tom Kim, Kevin Kisner (Max Homa)
• Boston Common Golf (-175) - Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Keegan Bradley (Hideki Matsuyama)
• ​​​Fanduel odds​​​

The moneyline says it all. I am digging deep to find any Jupiter wager advantage I can. This is where TGL betting could really help the telecast. We are quite certain Boston will win, but those H2H matches are compelling. Especially the two holes between Rory and Tiger. Those 10 minutes alone will attract a ton of eyeballs to the TV. I'm happy to report TGL is working tirelessly behind the scenes to emphasize more compelling storylines (bets). I know it is tough to wait but trust me when we get there the juice will be worth the squeeze.

Match breakdown

Boston Common is the best ball striking team in the league. I picked them to win the first SoFi Cup, and I stand by that prediction. They may have the highest average age, but they also have the lowest average OWGR. Together they have seven major championships and 93 worldwide wins. I realize Tiger has double their number of majors, but as we saw two weeks ago, Jupiter Links has serious issues. Against LAGC, Tiger's team only hit 50% of their fairways and 4 of 15 greens in regulation. That puts a ton of pressure on their short game, and we ALL know how that went.

Take the first hole tonight for example. It is a 516-yard par 4. Woods will hit the tee shot. He will be 25+ yards behind Rory. Then Kevin Kisner will be hitting the approach against Adam Scott. Kisner was ranked 178 on TOUR last year for SG:APP. Scott has gained on approach in nine of his last 12 starts dating back to the US Open. AND he will be playing from 25 (or more) yards closer. IF(?) Kisner hits the green, they turn it over to Tom Kim who was ranked 114 on TOUR last year for SG:Putt. Take that advantage and continue for 14 more holes.

That's why the match moneyline is -175 and will probably go higher by 6:30pm ET when they start. We will take our winning approach through Triples and add one more bet. For the factors listed above (and others), I also believe Boston Common will take the lead first. Sorry Billy Horschel, this one will not be close. What compounds the issue even more is that BCG starts with the hammer. Much like Atlanta Drive last week, once they go up early it will become a non-factor in the match. Would you give Tiger the opportunity to double any bet?

The singles should provide some competitive fire, but ultimately this one is over early. If we get favorable odds for the H2Hs, here's where I lean.

• Woods versus McIlroy: Hole 10 will be a really interesting moment for Tiger Woods. He'll try, but can he drive the ball far enough to carry the pinch on Spear? I think he will, and the hole will result in a halve, but that will be a true test for the always recovering Woods. They finish up on Alpine, and this hole has heavily favored longer hitters. McIlroy will set the record for longest drive in TGL history with this tee shot and wins the thirteenth hole over Woods with his advantage off the tee.
• Kisner versus Scott: Loot on the Line (Hole 11) is a pure accuracy contest, off the tee and on approach. Scott takes the first H2H hole as Kisner probably creates another social media moment. Set in Stone (Hole 14) is a beautiful mid-iron par 3 they both can handle. The two halve the hole that doesn't determine much as the match is already over.
• Kim versus Bradley: America versus the World. Seems like hyperbole, but that's probably how these two see it. Two very passionate participants, Kim and Captain Keegan, tie the par 3 twelfth hole. Our closing hole is brand new; Pin Oak (Par 5, 579 yards). Bradley can bomb a drive and reach the green in two where Kim will layup. That advantage for Keegan captures the hole as Kim heads to Pebble Beach.

The TGL season is starting to take shape. Including tonight, we just have two more weeks on one match. Then starting the week of February seventeenth, we have 10 matches in three weeks. It's amazing what you can televise once the NFL ends. Enjoy the match tonight, and let's continue our (bank) roll. Your PGA TOUR and season opening LPGA betting narratives will be in your inboxes on Wednesday!

I'll see you all tomorrow LIVE from Pebble Beach at 3:00pm ET on the Golf Pro Betting Show!

Match 4 Card

Match 4 - JLGC vs. BCG Match winner: Boston Common Golf (-175 B3) ​ Match 4 - Prop #2 Match 4 -Prop #3 Match 4 - Prop #4 ​ For more TGL Match 4 bets, become a member of Read The Line. ​(Click this button!) ​ Betting markets have been slow to post for TGL, especially Fanduel. They generally come out after we publish, so compare before you bet as they may have a better line.

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