Happy Valley π
SpelunkingOWINGS MILLS, MD - The BMW Championship is by far one of the best PGA TOUR events of the season. The Western Golf Association does two very important things in running a next-level playoff event. First, they take incredible care of the players and their caddies. Imagine looping for JT Poston this week and driving around in your own X7 courtesy car; that's a very nice touch. Second, they make it a great fan experience for those on-site and at home. On-site, there are a number of great activations, hospitality opportunities, and they have the 50 best players of the year. For those on the grounds and watching from home, they select incredible venues. By moving the tournament around, they effectively become like another major. Every year, there is new intrigue, new holes to learn, and another 10-20 guys who break into the top 50 who weren't there last year. Think about it, how many other events on the schedule move? Going back to Riviera and Muirfield Village is cool year after year, but look at the places the BMW has taken us over the past few years: Olympia Fields, Aronomink, Medinah, Castle Pines, and Crooked Stick. Looking ahead, the WGA has already selected Bellerive (2026), Liberty National (2027), and Hazeltine (2029)! Forty-one of the top 50 in the OWGR are here and along with 23 of the top 25 on the Ryder Cup points list. Wyndham Clark and Tony Finau were cut in Memphis. Remember, the top 6 on the points list get finalized for Bethpage on Sunday night, along with the top 30 heading to the Tour Championship. A great event that annually finds an amazing venue and exceeds our expectations for entertainment value. The rest of the PGA TOUR should take notice... Ch, ch, ch, changesForget what little you did know about Caves Valley Golf Club. The BMW Championship brought this suburban golf shrine into the media mainstream in 2021 when the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs visited Baltimore for the first time. An impeccable piece of property, Tom Fazio designed the course in 1991. Led by legendary PGA Professional Dennis Satyshur, the facility has been on the Golf Digest Top 100 list for decades. In 2021, the official tournament scorecard played to a par 72 that stretched 7,542. Seven players scored 268 (20 under par) or better. Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau both shot 27 under par through four rounds and needed a few extra holes to finish the tournament. SIX extra holes to be exact. The combination of soft course conditions and four par 5s led to record scoring. Caves Valley's official card has been significantly changed for the 2025 edition. The golf course will now play to a par 70 and has been lengthened to 7,601 yards! Had to have that extra yard... Five holes were significantly stretched, and holes two and 12 were changed from par 5s to 4s. Just to summarize the significance of the changes, took a quick look below.
The field will be tested with nine par 4s over 465 yards. Officials have also narrowed the landing areas and raised the rough slightly. Seems as if the Caves Valleyβs membership did not take kindly to having every player in the 69-man field finish under par in 2021. Switching the seventeenth hole from a 190-yard par 3 over water to a 245-yard shot is straight prison rules. Some will say it plays downhill, but really? Vegas has set the final score over/under at 17.5 under par. I believe this will play much like a PGA Championship from a scoring perspective. Should the turf remain dry, our winner will be in the mid-teens. If the forecast changes and we get wet, smash the under bet on a very low total. BMW Championship starts in...The weather played a huge role last time, and our forecast looks much better for the 2025 version. The golf course has been dry as the mid-Atlantic/Baltimore region has not witnessed much rain through July and August. A couple of thunderstorms threatened yesterday, but as of sending this, there has been no precipitation. The thermometer has read over 90 degrees all week and will continue through Sunday. No break from the heat for these guys who trudged through TPC Swampwind. Much like Memphis, the wind will provide little relief as the predicted breeze is below 10 mph through all four rounds. From the grounds, I can report this about the course and field:
The golf course has a Castle Pines look and feel to it. Minus the elevation factor, of course! The clubhouse sits atop a hill, and the field plays down into the valley and back up at the end of each nine. Comps such as Quail Hollow (Fazio), Augusta National, Muirfield Village, and Valhalla all make sense. The Superintendent's previous stop was MVGC. You get that feel around Caves Valley. It is a big golf course with a "length" aura. The holes are long, and the green complexes have been enhanced since 2021. Inviting the TOUR to your facility can be good and bad. The 2021 BMW showed CVGC's membership what was possible. Now it is the Red Coats' turn to fight back. These guys are good, so high teens will likely win, but from what I'm seeing, scores deep into the 20s under these conditions are not currently on the radar. Ultimate driving machineI love events where we lack a ton of course history. It forces everyone to look at the golf course and decide what it takes to win. Tom Fazio had an incredible piece of property to use for this design. Television cannot truly capture the challenge of this terrain, much like Augusta National. I'm not comparing the two, but whether it is Kapalua's Plantation Course or Castle Pines last year, there are some serious elevation changes across this landscape. With the added length and change in par, my first outright skill for CVGC is ball speed. This is a bomber's ballpark. Can a player like JJ Spaun or Justin Rose compete at Caves? They sure can. Those two examples are both playing exceptional golf, but when the week ends, the top 15 on the leaderboard will be dominated by big-time drivers of the golf ball. Seven of the top 10 players in 2021 were inside the top 10 for strokes gained off the tee. With firmer landing areas and the need for a little more accuracy, that trend may regress a touch, but the BMW loves drivers. I find myself writing this every year (Olympia Fields, Castle Pines), but they do love the saying "ultimate driving machine!" Look at the last top 10, it included: Bryson, Rory, DJ, Rahm, Sergio, Sam Burns, and Patrick Cantlay. All of those guys can seriously send the golf ball. Walking the fairways, there are some areas where Google Maps is not going to do the current setup justice. This isn't Oakmont, but it's not as wide open as many online would have you think. By adding some bounce and making the fairways a little tighter, it again favors the SG:OTT guys. Don't forget, strokes gained off the tee promotes length over accuracy. The par 3 and par 5 strokes gained ranges have not changed since 2021, but the par 4 edge will be increased. Not only are there two more par 4s to play, but they are both converted par 5s. Each is well over 500 yards and will help differentiate the field. That's where the Rory, Ludvig, Young, Gotterup crew will have a big advantage. Thirteen of the 14 driving holes meander to one side or the other off the tee. The ability to cut the corners (or carry bunkers), much like a Quail Hollow, will be another great scoring opportunity.
The last edition would lead one to believe the putter is the most important club in the bag. Watching on-site, you see a real edge on the greens. These surfaces are so pure, much like the brand-new greens we saw at TPC Southwind. Players will make a bunch of birdie putts. They are fast, firm, and because of all the elevation changes, not incredibly difficult to read. In talking to caddies and players, many are playing more slope than break. What I mean by that is when greens have a ton of bumps, swales, and plateaus, you play a ton of break. Small changes in the green surface force the ball to move. When green complexes sit on hillsides, you see the slope of the whole green causing the ball to move. With less little undulations, guys will make more putts, and they proved it in 2021. Strokes gained pressure is a real thing. Impossible to quantify, you know it when you see Fleetwood fall from the lead late on a Sunday afternoon. Some pressure is being applied to those outside the top 30. Matt Fitzpatrick (40), Xander Schauffele (43), Jason Day (44), and Rickie Fowler (48) all need very good weeks to qualify for East Lake. Their mindset is to attack and not hold back. They may feel some pressure, but hit the gas and see what happens. I'm more interested in the Ryder Cup question marks. Bethpage requires excellent driving and match-play putting. Two skills that will determine our champion at Caves Valley. You better believe the Captain and his support team will be watching all week. That is more pressure than Cam Young, Ben Griffin, or Chris Gotterup have ever faced in their careers. I think the pressure is palpable, and I'm looking at certain players who I believe will rise to the occasion.
The European side is set. A player like Viktor Hovland is only worried about making the Tour Championship. The same 12 from Rome are coming to New York to pull off the upset. Players hit 72% of their GIRs in 2021, but don't let that lead you to believe approach play is not important. Seventy-two percent is well above the TOUR average, and at 5,200 sq/ft (on average), these aren't large targets. The best 50 players from this year are playing. Many of them have plenty to push for. With just two weeks left, I'm looking for great iron players in the 175-215 yard range. Who is great with their six, seven, and eight iron? Notice, I didn't say good. To beat Scottie Scheffler, you must create 25+ birdie chances. Scheffler will probably have even more. Get closer off the tee and you'll hit more eight and nine irons, but whatever the club is, we need players who are firing on all cylinders. Outright Winners - BMW ChampionshipFrequent flyersThe ladies leave Europe and head back to the United States and specifically Portland, Oregon, for the Standard Portland Classic. It blows my mind that the LPGA does not have a major sponsorship with an airline. To date in 2025, these ladies have traveled to Thailand, Singapore, China, Mexico, France, Scotland, Wales, and all four US time zones. And... they still have Canada, Hawaii, Korea, Malaysia, and Japan before they wrap the season in Florida, back where they started in January. Twelve countries!?!?! That's amazing. Let's hope each of them has a frequent flyer account! Major season is complete, congrats to Miyuu Yamashita for winning the AIG Women's Open. RTL readers know that name quite well as we cashed a nice top 10 ticket on her in Wales. Yamashita has a world-class short game. Make the conditions difficult in majors, and she tends to climb that leaderboard. Throw her in a birdiefest, and her ball striking cannot keep up. It's been an interesting major season. Mao Saigo (Chevron), Maja Stark (US Open), Minjee Lee (PGA), Grace Kim (Evian), and Miyuu represent the next generation in women's golf. Great young players, Lee is the only one who has a major title on her resume. Signs of the times? I think so. The return to the United States and a trip to Portland marks more than the halfway point in the season, and some of the LPGA stars have yet to grab a trophy. Jeeno Thitikul just overtook Nelly Korda as the number one player in the Rolex World Rankings. With just 13 events left on the schedule, can Korda capture a win? All signs in 2025 pointed toward another record season, but young stars from the JLPGA have been the ones making headlines. Let's lock in for the final baker's dozen and collect a couple of winners. The LPGA fall has always been a rewarding run on the schedule for RTL. Who could forget Andrea Lee (+4500) right here in Portland just a couple of years agoβ¦ Portland Classic starts in...Up to Oregon for our annual trip to Columbia Edgewater Country Club. If you're looking at past leaderboards, the PC has been played here a bunch. Most recently, from 2013 to 2020, and 2022 to this edition. Set on the Columbia River, Columbia Edgewater CC is a par 72 layout covering 6,478 yards. Not long by any stretch on the LPGA schedule, the Portland Classic's average winning score on the years listed above is 20 under par. The last six 72-hole winners (shortened to 54 holes in 2020) were all at least 19 under par. The scoring starts with four short par 5s. Pay attention to the routing because if you have played CECC before, the LPGA flips the 9s. Players start on 10 and complete their rounds on nine. It's a great move as 17 (eight) is a tough par four with a very tight tee shot, and 18 (nine) is a reachable par 5 with water in front of the green. The forecast is unbelievable for Portland, and although only 11 of the top 30 in the Rolex Ranking are here, they will appreciate the scoring weather. Temperatures are forecasted in the mid-70s with early morning lows in the mid-50s. There is no rain in the forecast, and the wind will be well below 10 mph throughout all four rounds. Forecasts can change; always be sure to use our RTL real-time weather link below. If this prediction holds, we may see someone pass Chanettee Wannasaen's 26 under par record score. The only course defense is that the Portland region has been dry. A firm test off the tee will cause some havoc, and an average green size of 5,500 sq/ft will be tough to hold. Seven holes have water in play, and there are 54 bunkers to avoid. Our field of 144 will be cut to the top 65 and ties for the final 36 holes. Those ladies will have a chance at $2 million and a first-place check of $300,000. Past winners at the Portland Classic have been a mix of veterans and young stars. In the past three years, we have picked a winner and six more top 10 finishers. This course requires a very specific skill set, and one that I have figured out. Highway commissionThe forecast is going to play a role this week. I know that sounds like a strange thing to say, the event after we played in Scotland and Wales, but the Portland region needs rain. Temperatures jumped into the high 90s earlier in the week, and heat indexes were well over 100 degrees! Firm and fast at Columbia Edgewater CC will lead to a very specific style of player for the Portland Classic. There is a chance we see some rain on Friday night and into Saturday, but I doubt 0.2" of rain will soften these surfaces. Based upon that average winning score, the ladies are going to have to find a way to attack these small, firm greens. That strategy must start with accuracy off the tee. Driving accuracy is by far the most vital statistic at CECC. We see it year after year, the top 10 leaderboards hit a ton of fairways. If you don't remember this week on television, the Portland Classic will make you claustrophobic off the tee. The fairways are lined with thick pine trees. Terrible fairway borders, they are thick, have low limbs, and shallow root systems. All of that adds up to punching out if you get lost in the fir. With firm conditions, these hallways are going to become even narrower. Twelve of the 14 driving holes bend. Players must find the center as offline tee shots will roll through the short grass. More than an accuracy contest, it also comes down to on-course experience. Columbia Edgewater is a very difficult course to learn in three days. Especially when those three days are above 90 degrees! Total driving, accuracy, and a little length all matter as we handicap this field. Four players finished at 20 under par or better last year. If you were 12 under par, you finished in a tie for thirtieth place. Thirtieth! That's an average of 3 under per round, and you couldn't break the top 25. The tournament record is 26 under par (2023), and since the return to CECC in 2013, six of the 11 winners have been 20 under par or lower. My cumulative scoring analysis does not include a birdie to bogey ratio. Make any bogeys, and you'll be crossing the border to Canada on Saturday. Instead, I started with BoB%, par 4 and 5 scoring. This gave us a great baseline for who can go low. Players need a 28% birdie rate (or better) to win this week. Few players can go that kind of low. Measuring simple scoring skills is not enough. The secret sauce this week is rounds in the 60s. Who goes low more often? On tougher venue weeks, these ladies cannot keep up because they also tend to make mistakes. That ability to spike more often matters when you need 25 sub-par scores in 72 holes. Those who hit the fairway will need an attacking iron game to create birdie chances. Approach play can get overlooked this week with the need for hitting fairways. With firm greens, spin control by the better approach players will be the talent needed to score even more effectively against the average approach players. Not many LPGA players are high-ball hitters from the fairway, so spin and trajectory control are paramount to success. I'm going with solid ball strikers who have also been trending. The average approach shot is not long at CECC. Most of the field will play a majority of their approaches from 120-160 yards. That's part of why a little length doesn't hurt OTT. Get closer AND in the fairway and you'll be able to attack with a higher lofted iron, which will make a big difference when it comes to stopping the ball. It sounds funny, but we are going to see some bounce out in Oregon. How about the terrain in last week's Women's Amateur!?!?! With far fewer undulations, that type of hard turf is what we will experience. Thinking about interesting comp courses, I went back to the 2023 Canadian Open. It was played in Vancouver at Shaughnessy Golf and Country Club the week before the Portland Open, and the leaderboards were very similar. Another fairway finder test on similar agronomy, I'm looking through that leaderboard for more clues. This pocket of tour events up in the northwest will give us a great idea of who plays well in the region. Not many pundits will make this connection, and it is a great comp. Eight players who finished inside the top 25 are in the field this week. Just two years ago, their skill set still applies. Generally speaking, on the LPGA, the better ball strikers are not great putters. I looked through the recent 2025 leaderboards for a couple of trending flatstickers. I found one or two of the better tour flushers rolling the rock quite nicely and added them to the card. Three weeks ago, we won, and Rio came close at the AIG for back to back outrights. Our LPGA eyes are locked in, and I'm going to be aggressive with the top of this betting board. It is extremely top-heavy in talent. It will be a tight card and one I think will give us a third straight week of LPGA profitability. Outright winners - Portland ClassicRead between the linesThe best place to follow news about Read The Line is right here! β Do you know what it means to be a member of Read The Line?We provide more outrights, prop bets, H2H matchups, DFS lineups, and One & Done picks. Hit the link above and see for yourself! β
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