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Grapes of Wrath π·
...and we're back!After 35 straight weeks of PGA TOUR golf, they took a week off. As we all collectively caught our breath, the TOUR reloaded for an eight week fall run. The FedEx Cup Fall starts this week at the Procore Championship in Napa, California. This is the old Fortinet/Safeway event. The Silverado Resort is still the host and 144 players will be playing for more than making the cut and a $6 million dollar purse. The top 50 in FedEx Cup points from January through August are guaranteed a PGA TOUR card for 2025 and signature status. Those outside the top 50, all must get inside the top 125 to play in 2025. There are eight official events this fall to earn points. The TOUR followed this same format last fall (SHOCKER!). Believe it or not there is one new event, but the other seven we have grown to know (and love) for years in the autumn months. September hosts just one event. October has four tournaments spread throughout the southwest and Japan, and November gives us the final three along the water. Even the onslaught of football can get monotonous at times. If it doesn't, then enjoy the weekday golf again and check scores on Sunday night. The TOUR is back and that means time for win #11 this year! Procore Championship starts in...SilveradoThe Silverado Resort's North Course has hosted the PGA TOUR since October of 2014. A staple of the fall schedule, it has seen several name changes, but the venue has held up. The par 72 layout measures 7,123 yards. It owns the standard complement of four par 3s and 5s and 10 par 4s. At 7,100 yards, it is a short course and one that has seen some scoring over the years. The average winning total over the past five years is 19 under par. The average Friday cutline to the top 65 and ties is two under par in that same time frame. Players will score here, but they also make bogeys. The last five winners averaged 23 sub-par scores. Believe it or not, at just over seven thousand yards, bogey avoidance is a necessary thing on the North Course. Average green size is 5,400 sq/ft and since we are back in California, they are covered in a Poa annua - Bentgrass blend. Two holes have water in play and there are 53 bunkers scattered throughout. Most of the fairways are tree lined. That's really where most of the bogeys happen. Players must keep the ball between the trees. You can miss the fairway by a small margin and still score. Get the ball way offline and you will have the weekend off. Recent winners have been very good drivers of the golf ball. Solid ball strikers over all, but most of them share that theme. We expect very seasonal weather in wine country. Crisp to start each day in the low 50s and then 85-90 degrees for a high. The forecast calls for 8-12 mph winds mainly from the south. This is significant, because 15 of the 18 holes run either north or south. Limiting the amount of cross winds these players will face will help them find fairways. The scorecard has nine par 4s under 435 yards. Guys will need to attack if they plan on keeping up. As a fall event, many of the strokes gained leaders on the North Course are not big names. The average pre-tournament winner's odds over the last decade is +7900. Twenty-four of the top 100 in the OWGR are competing along with six players from the two Presidents' Cup teams. I'm concerned those names might be looking ahead, as such my interest lies in those who have tremendous win potential. The fall tends to crown new winners. In 2023, tournament officials changed the course routing. Holes 8 through 17 have been reassigned. The regular hole numbers are in parenthesis.
Last year, the change led to an exciting finish over the weekend. The final seven holes now have two par 5s and two par 4s under 375 yards. No lead is safe as closers can make a serious move as they approach the clubhouse. Making course changes like this improved the event. The FedEx Cup Fall should be about innovating inside the competitions. I'm not looking to change the game, but what the Procore team here did made a difference and it improved the viewing experience. I expect to see some urgency from the middle tier this week. Ten signature spots are also available after these eight tournaments. We have all seen what those can do for FedEx points and career earnings. Let's get back to work and continue to build upon our successful 2024 season. (Don't go) SidewaysI like the North Course at Silverado because it forces tour pros to hit elite shots. The race to 20 under par on a tight and twisting layout really shows how good these guys are. Many will miss the cut, but watching players hit approach shots from that 125-175 range is fun. Pay attention to proximity. With scoring irons in hand, the best will knock down the flag a dozen times per round. Small tangent, but how many times do you absolutely flag one? Once a nine, a round, a week, a month, a season? Imagine hitting 12-14 approaches right at your target. That's what we are looking for this week. Second skill is putting yourself in position to attack the flag directly. You cannot get caught in the trees. Silverado is one of the least penal courses for just missing the fairway. Hit the rough near the fairway edge and you can still attack. Miss by a wide margin and you are forced to save par after a pitch out. The North Course can be positional at times off the tee and a little experience has proven to be a big benefit. Speaking of experience, I also love to look at the Barracuda Championship leaderboard. Those greens are just like Silverado and players who play well at one tend to contend at both. The last five winners averaged a positive five strokes against the field with their flatstick. These greens are pretty small. Capture a GIR and you will have a solid birdie chance. Poa can be a frustrating surface to play on. Successful California players tend to own west coast leaderboards just for that reason. It is imperative this week to score. I'm tailing players who have their putting going already. Events like the Procore are a sprint. One player will be eight under (or more) the first day and six or more will be in double digits after 36-holes. Aggressive putters play well here and they don't hold back. The North Course has four par 5s that hold a 37% birdie average. Make the easy sub-par scores when you can and give yourself a goal of getting to 10 under par on these 16 holes for the four round week. Both back nine par 3s have water in play. Pay attention to those and the two on the front. In recent years, the winners have made some moves on the 3s. Three of the last five champions have gained over three and half strokes on the short ones. In the end, finding the fairway and playing these medium to short length par 4s is really the straightest path to success. There's only ONE par 4 over 450 yards. Coincidentally, Robert Trent Jones Jr. designed Silverado's North Course. The Solheim Cup is being contested at one of his dad's finest works (Robert Trent Jones Golf Club). It's not hard keeping up with these Joneses. Silverado is very straightforward and the weather looks prime for a great event. I have a couple guys on our card that look ready to do some serious damage this fall. While most betting pundits leave golf to tout football, we won't. The past couple years we have grabbed five fall wins. Forget the Fortinet, it is now the Procore and our last preview before we head up north for the Presidents' Cup! Outright Winners - Procore Championshipβ Face paintIt all started in 1990, the first Solheim Cup match was played at Lake Nona Golf and Country Club. Since those matches were contested on that elite playground, 17 more editions have been played across the United States and Europe. The USA holds a slight lead in the win-loss record at 10-7-1. That "1" was the last time they met one year ago in Spain. The two sides tied at 14 points and the team holding the cup (Europe) retained it. These matches are normally played every other year, but covid threw off the Ryder Cup schedule and the LPGA decided to go against the Presidents' Cup year(s) instead. The matches were created by the Solheim family, the founders of PING, to celebrate women's competitive golf. Similar to the men's team events, two teams of 12 players compete in eight team and 12 singles matches over three days. The United States will need 14.5 points to take the Cup back. Europe has won five of the last seven matches. Experience rests on their side as their 12 players have collectively competed in 37 Solheim Cup matches. The younger US side has just 22 matches under their belt. A course advantage never hurts in these international exhibitions. I spoke with the Director of Golf at the Robert Trent Jones Golf Club, and he gave me the full breakdown on the course conditions, key holes, and competitive changes the committees have made to give the US every edge it can get. Solheim Cup starts in...Jones CupWe can start with the format. The exhibition will begin with four foursome matches (alternate shot) on Friday morning. In the afternoon, teams will return to compete in four fourball matches (better ball of partners). Captain Stacy Lewis leads the United States and will be making the pairings for the home side. The spirited Suzann Pettersen is her competing captain for the European team. The same format of matches will repeat on Saturday. Sunday the competition will close with 12 singles matches. The Robert Trent Jones Golf Club is no stranger to these types of international match play exhibitions. The first Presidents' Cup was played here in 1994 and three more times soon after (1996, 2000, 2005). This majestic layout alongside Lake Manassas is absolutely impeccable in every way imaginable. From the Georgian style clubhouse to the spectacular back nine lake setting, viewers will be blown away by the course. Most of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast have felt drought conditions this summer. Gainsville, Virginia is no different. The course looks pristine to the television eye, but I'm told its rock-hard underneath. There's a slight chance of rain over the weekend, but that should not materially affect the firm fast texture. A par 72 scorecard measuring 6,700 yards will be set up five different ways for each wave of matches. The members of RTJGC have been hitting off mats in the fairway since July. Everyone is doing everything they can to create a first-class competitive environment. One we all hope the US team will thrive in. The average green size is 6,000 sq/ft and they are covered in bentgrass. Perfect for putting these babies can cook well over 13 on the stimpmeter. I'm told they won't completely go crazy with green speed since the course should be secondary to the player story of these matches. No trickery on the greens other than Jones' smooth subtleties. In breaking down the course and required skills, their PGA professional made mention of the unique green complexes several times. They repel offline approaches and are sufficiently guarded. Seventy-six bunkers are precisely placed from tee to green. Eight of the final nine holes have water surrounding play on one side. The par three eleventh is played right over the lake to a peninsula green. It truly is a wonderful golf setting and unbelievably suited for match play. Three of the toughest holes begin the round. Start slowly and you can easily be three down. Once you hit the par 3 ninth, the fun really begins. Par 5s on twelve and fourteen will surely set up the final four holes. It is an awesome test, and one designed with numerous risk-reward choices. The fairways are wide putting less pressure on players from the tee box. As you get closer to the green, the challenge increases. A couple members of each team have been out to survey the setting, but there are still several like the captain's choices who have not. Their first RTJGC experience came when the teams arrived on Monday. Virginia has plenty of hills and this course rolls with the landscape. Many of the approaches are set above and below the green surfaces. Ball strikers are rewarded here and both teams have plenty of them. What stands out in match play, is your short game and putting. Both teams are comparable with the flatstick, but the US holds a considerable edge in around the green acumen. The United States is better on paper than Europe in every major category you can think of and some of the unique ones as well. We rank higher in par 3, par 4, and par 5 scoring. On average we hit more fairways and GIRs. We create more sub-par scores and have a lower team scoring average on tour. We have seen this screenplay before and know that Europe has still won five of the last seven Solheim Cups. The Americans are younger and have a lower average Rolex ranking. Did I mention, we are at home? What will be the deciding factor for the US side to take home the trophy? After talking to RTJGC's head PGA professional, it is apparent scoring from close range will win this. Our team short game is significantly better and our putting just slightly. We also convert more birdie chances as our putts per GIR is lower. Those factors will be the edge needed for the home team to take the Cup. I'm leaning heavily on the American side and also have a couple of valuable props to build out the betting card as well. Enjoy the face paint, music, and all the matches have to offer. Most of all take in the celebration on Sunday, after all it is not often we win these exhibitions. Outright winners - Solheim Cup
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