Gold Mettle π
The Gold StandardCongratulations to Jhonny Vegas for handling his nerves down the stretch at the 3M Open. The Venezuelan ball striking machine ranked seventh in putting at TPC Twin Cities to finish at 17 under par. Vegas captured his fourth career win and our sixth outright of the season. New Jersey's Max Greyserman fired a 63 and forced Johnny to make birdie on 18 for the win. Max's second shot on the closing hole was one the best approaches we have seen all year under Sunday pressure on TOUR. I remember when Greyserman won the NJ State Open at 19 years old. I thought "this kid is for real" at the time and he surely has shown it this season. The Vegas win highlights our second longshot win of the season. At 80-1, only Taylor Pendrith at 100-1 (CJ CUP Byron Nelson) gave us a greater return. With one tournament to go before the Top 70 FedEx Cup points cutoff, the PGA TOUR takes a one week break for the Olympic Games. Staged in Paris, France, we return to the site of the 2018 Ryder Cup matches; Le Golf National. Set in the Parisian countryside near Versailles, this target oriented track is about to test 60 of the world's best men for the opportunity to seize Olympic Gold. Rio in 2016 marked the first men's Olympic golf competition. Justin Rose took home the gold. Xander Schauffele was second to grab the gold medal in Japan (2021). Olympic golf starts in...Versailles venueThe format is 72-hole individual stroke play. The men and the women will be competing on the same course. Le Golf National is the host of the FedEx Open de France. Held annually, the DP World Tour travels to this venue each fall. Much like the signature events we have grown so accustomed to, there is no cut this week. All 60 men get 72 holes to try and win a medal. Le Golf National is a 36-hole golf facility. The Olympians will be competing on the Albatross layout. A par 71 course covering 7,174 yards, target golf does not begin to describe this accuracy test. Oddly enough, both venues this week are strict target tests. Eighteen different NBC and Peacock channels are broadcasting the games so there's a good chance you are familiar with the weather in France. It's hot and the forecast calls for little relief. The wind will be in the single digits as temperatures spike in the high-80s. There's a good chance of a storm on Thursday. The remaining three rounds should be dry. We are betting the winner in our outright card, but at the Olympics, we will actually see three winners (Gold, Silver, Bronze). Who could forget the seven-way playoff for the bronze medal back in Japan (2021). CT Pan won the medal over Paul Casey, Mito Periera, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory Mcilroy, Collin Morikawa, and Sebastian Munoz. The average winning score of the Open de France is 12 under par in the last five editions. Recent winners include Tommy Fleetwood and Alex Noren (both in the field). The course has average sized greens (7,500 sq/ft) covered in a Poa annua Bentgrass blend we are all familiar with. Unlike the courses we just witnessed in Scotland, this looks like American aerial attack golf. Ten holes have water in play and the field will face 51 bunkers across 18 holes. Thirty rookies will face the Albatross course for the first time in competition; half the field. That includes our four American stars. The tournament favorites are Scottie Scheffler (+350) and Xander Schauffele (+550). Jon Rahm just won LIV Golf London and Rory frame out the top four. Unlike the TOUR's fifth major, this event brings LIV and the PGA TOUR competitors together again. For a fifth time this year, we get to see Jon Rahm, Joaquin Niemann, and a few other LIV players compete. Rahm's form is on point so it will be really interesting to see him go after Scottie, Xander, and Rory. Can Xander beat everyone again? How will all of this affect the Player of the Year race? Scheffler may have six wins, but what if Xander beats him again along with Rory, Rahm, and the rest. Made for TVOne image we all remember from the 2018 Ryder Cup was the American team consistently hacking out of thick gnarly rough. Early press room interviews reveal that is not the setup situation for the Olympic games. The rough is much shorter and far less penal than the Ryder Cup matches. Hitting from the fairway is always favored, but should the rough situation be represented accurately by the talking heads, look for low scoring in these games. Le Golf National's best defense is getting into trouble. Ten holes with water in play are not enough to slow these guys down. They had 15 holes with penalty areas in Minnesota and the winning total was 17 under par. Independent of rough length, this design has a number of doglegs that ask for positional tee shots. Nine landing areas will be common targets amongst the 60 players. Unlike any given week where points, payouts, and pride manage the outcome, this week is unique. Who knows how aggressive players will attack. Some may see this as a measuring moment against the field, while others may just consider it to be an exhibition. Comparing multiple mindsets and the architecture, I still believe this course rewards patience over power and our outright card will reflect that. Medal hopefuls will have 10 approach shots from over 175 yards. Mid and long iron acumen will be tested on the Albatross course. With the field assembled, you will need to be special with the long sticks to separate. Since those shots are becoming more and more common amongst this crowd, I'm very interested in the short approaches on the par 5s and short par 4s as well. Seven par 4s measure under 430 yards. Scoring on those holes becomes a scrambling contest. Getting in close from any yardage with a wedge is an evolving talent on TOUR. More and more we see this complementary call for 200+ yard approaches and scrambling skill from 60-120 yards. Our outrights are excellent with a wedge from all angles. That's really the key around this place. Graeme McDowell has won here twice on the DP World Tour and he made a career off of his wedge play. Creativity and the ability to control spin on these green complexes will be key. The conditions in France could also go a couple of different directions. Similar to TPC Twin Cities, you will probably need 20 sub-par scores this week. Who can get there on a short tricky layout? There are 30 course rookies in the field. Confidence brings scoring ability. Favoring those in the field who have course history makes sense. Of the six betting favorites under +2000, only Rory and Rahm have competed at Le Golf National. I realize Scottie and Xander are amazing players, but when you are splitting hairs, these are the types of edges that lead to finding Jhonny Vegas in a field of 156. It is also worth mentioning that the Ryder Cup is a match play event. During no time do you have to hole out and a large majority of the matches you are competing with a world class partner. Making bets based upon Ryder Cup comparisons is a slippery slope. In most cases the course setup will be drastically different and the confidence of playing with a teammate is different than playing individually for your country. Le Golf National sets up beautifully as a par 4 venue. Many players can score on these par 5s. The average par 3 length is under 200 yards. That's a seven iron or less. Hard to imagine, but it just is. Of the 11 par 4s, only four of them are over 450 yards. Tackling all types of these holes at Le Golf National makes a huge difference. I'm getting behind the par 4 players. A strategy that always pays dividends in majors and situations where we have a number of unknowns. Alongside those skill sets, I've added approach ability from the rough, par 71 scoring, small field success, and DP World Tour experience. For a week that feels like we have a bunch of questions, authentic golf knowledge can provide a plethora of useful answers. The Americans have been overseas for almost a month. That's a long time to travel. I realize they stay in five star accommodations, but it all makes a difference. You'll see where I'm leaning below, but these are the observations and anecdotes I'm hearing from across the pond. Outright Winners - Olympicsβ Lucky #7For the second time in less than a year, we predicted the RTL perfect pair. Lauren Coughlin's late birdie on the seventeenth hole Sunday (and steady back nine) sealed our second win of the day! It was a wild close in Calgary as Mao Saigo (RTL pick) also was in position to win. With three holes to go, three players were tied for the lead and we backed two of them. Saigo eventually slid back along with Haeran Ryu which led to Coughlin capturing the Canadian women's trophy. Lauren's first win at +4000 was eerily similar to last summer when Megan Khang secured her first win (+4000) in the very same event. Khang's victory in Canada last August also marked the last time we won twice on the same Sunday. Buoyed by Coughlin and Vegas victories, let's take that momentum to Portland (and Paris). The LPGA travels further west to Oregon for the Portland Classic. Two years ago, we nabbed Andrea Lee for her first LPGA victory (+4500) at the Portland Classic. Your typical long standing LPGA middle tier event, only eight of the top 50 in the Rolex World Rankings have headed this far west. Of course it makes sense, the stars are still in France as the women's Olympic competition takes place next Wednesday, August 7th. A three week run from Toledo to Calgary, and now Portland created a very odd stretch for the LPGA stars. Following Paris, the tour heads to Scotland for the Scottish Open and then St. Andrews for the AIG Women's Open. Portland Classic starts in...Getting warm out westThere is $1.75 million in the purse and a tour exemption up for grabs, and that's why so many in the middle tier are not missing Nelly, Lilia, and the rest on the west coast. A field of 144 players will tee it up at Columbia Edgewater Country Club for the thirty-seventh time. We have plenty of course history as nine of the last 10 PCs were played here. Much like Sahalee six weeks ago, these are some very tree-lined fairways. Tight does not begin to describe these alleyways. Accuracy will beat length nine times out of 10 in this event. To contend, you MUST put the ball in the fairway and that's not easy with just 30 acres of short grass to hit. The green surfaces average 5,500 sq/ft and are covered in Poa annua - Bentgrass. Earl Grey was a great preview for this week. The trees will be tighter here, but the penalty for missing the fairway is equally significant. When you do hit the fairway, make sure you avoid the 14 fairway bunkers. Fifty-four bunkers in total, the accuracy test is across the entire landscape. We have seven holes where water comes into play and the players may need it to cool off. The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-90s... in Portland! Very little breeze is expected with wind predicted in the single digits all four days. The region has been very dry and that trend will continue through the tournament. How accurate are you?Columbia Edgewater CC is a par 72 scorecard measuring 6,478 yards. Temperatures in the 90s, dry conditions, and very little wind, it will play much shorter. So the accuracy contest becomes even more impactful around this place. The average winning score over the last 10 editions at CECC is 19 under par. Players will face four short par 5s, six par 4s under 400 yards, and all four par 3s are 165 yards or less. Chanettee Wannasaen is our defending champion (-26). Wannasaen just won the Dana Open two weeks ago. Of course, she backed that second career win up with a missed cut above the border in Canada. Golf is hard. I don't believe 26 under is possible in these dry conditions. The firm landing areas are going to become even smaller in the heat. I do believe BoB% far outweighs bogey avoidance for this course and will be picking outrights accordingly. This is an easy course by LPGA standards and you will need to make sub-par scores to remain in the conversation come Sunday. Looking back through the leaderboards from the last two Portland Classics, the top 10s really got after the par 5s. The 24 women in those two top 10s (more than 20 due to ties) averaged 4.53 on the 5s. Combine that with a 3.83 average on the par 4s and you see where we are finding our scorers. Strokes gained approach and putting will reveal larger gains than off the tee, but the truth is fairways hit is a much better metric to measure. SG:OTT favors length over accuracy. On weeks where we are so accuracy dependent, it is better to research the best drivers by accuracy alone. Those same top 10s averaged hitting fairways at a 73% success rate. Conversely, around the green play won't be a featured statistic at CECC. The leading ladies hit 77% of their GIRs. If you are chipping, you arenβt contending. A careful par save once a round is great, but the accuracy theme doesn't end at the fairway. The leaders gained an average of 4.5 strokes versus the field on approach. Ten of the 18 approaches fall between 125-175 yards. Remember that includes all of the par 3s and majority of the 4s. Similar to last week in Canada, we need some ball strikers. Except this time, they do not have to be long. Who in this "field" can hit 75% of her GIRs, 75% of her fairways and convert on the greens? Columbia Edgewater's green complexes are not terribly complex. Good putters can make putts and average putters can survive. The last two top 10s averaged nearly five strokes in gains against the field. Two years ago, I selected four women and we won, but all four finished inside the top 24. Last year, we had two outrights finish T3, T7. Columbia Edgewater is not complicated. Most would skip this week once they saw the field, but with our weekly analysis, I believe there's a huge edge in these regular events. Let's take some of that Coughlin cash and build a bigger bankroll with another parkland payout this week! Outright winners - Portland Classic
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