Read The Line

Fort What its Worth

Published about 1 year ago • 8 min read

Guess who's back, back again...

I walked the final few holes with Brooks Koepka on Sunday. In impressive Koepka style, he closed out his third PGA and fifth major championship. Congratulations to all my members for our fifth win of the year and 17th outright winner since we started last year. In a game full of statistics, here's the most important one. Since January 2022, if you followed us on every outright prediction, you would be up a net of $18,510 (based upon a $100 dollar bet)!

We have predicted 463 different bets with a net return of 13.4% since the start of the year. We can all win, so please spread the word and let's all continue building golf's best betting community.

Hogan's heroes

Colonial Country Club is hosting their 77th edition of the Charles Schwab Challenge this week. A mainstay on the PGA TOUR, this event started back in 1946. The host venue was the playground of Ben Hogan and so many other of the great Dallas, Texas players throughout the history of the game. The solid tradition continues with 24 of the top 50 in the world playing. Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth headline a field competing for $8.7 million dollars. The 120 players get cut after 36-holes on Friday to the top 65 and ties all trying to earn $1.566 million for first place on Sunday afternoon.

Colonial Country Club is the fourth shortest course on TOUR. Don't be deceived by length, the course is difficult. The average winning score over the last ten editions is 13.3 under par.

  • The scorecard reads par 70 covering 7,209 yards.
  • The average green size is 5,000 sq/ft and covered in bentgrass.
  • The course has 84 bunkers and water comes into play on six holes.
  • The collection of par 3s ranks in the top 10 toughest on TOUR.

The weather this week looks warmer than Rochester! We don't expect any frost delays as the forecast calls for mid 80s. There's a 40% chance of rain on Thursday but following round one the tournament should stay dry. The usual hot Texas wind is absent as we are looking at wind speeds all week in the 10-12 mph range. The Dallas region has been very dry. Much like last year, the course will be firm and fast. This should limit scoring to a degree, but overall, these guys are coming off a very difficult ball striking test and will be prepared.

Our last ten winners have an average pre-tournament odds of +4400. Six of them had odds under +3500. Colonial tends to favor names we know. Solid approach players who can putt begin the discussion. There are more details to cover below in the outrights section, but Colonial is a predictive course. Nine of the last ten have had success prior to winning. One of the reasons prior experience helps is the fact CCC is the ninth toughest track on TOUR.

There's no time for a let down from the PGA Championship. Major season is in full swing and with 50% behind us and LIV playing a substantial role in both to date, a place like the Charles Schwab Challenge presents a nice opportunity for building a bigger winning resume or starting one.

The Charles Schwab Challenge starts in...

Colonial times

Colonial Country Club is a par 70 with 12 par 4s. Nine of those par 4s are under 450 yards in length. Players will be wearing out their scoring irons this week. The par 3s, are some of the toughest on TOUR, but overall, this is a wedge-fest. When we look at the path to winning for the last ten champions, the strokes gained synopsis shows two key numbers driving success.

  • The first is approach play. Winners have gained an average of almost seven strokes against the field on their way to victory. Players hit the TOUR average of GIRs here (66%). To differentiate yourself proximity plays a significant part. Guys who create opportunities (15' or less) excel. Forty-five percent of approach shots are played from 125-175 yards. That's a gap wedge to eight-iron for this field. Turn the radar on and attack.

Anytime we have 12 par 4s like last week at Oak Hill, par 4 scoring becomes significant. This collection of 4s ranges from 387 to 483 yards. Continue to birdie these holes and you will be around the top of the leaderboard Sunday.

  • Getting those opportunities from 15' and in are one thing, converting is another. I don't believe you need to be an excellent putter to win here, but you need to be a birdie putter. Players with a strong birdie or better percentage will have 11 holes to play where the sub-par scores are converted over 15% of the time.

Bogey avoidance counts too, especially around the Horrible Horseshoe (holes 3-4-5). One attribute that gets downplayed is around the green skill. Overall, they keep the Bermugrass rough manageable. These guys will get a break after last week. The driver will also be used less than Oak Hill. Twelve of the fourteen driving holes have a bend in design. Positional golf is the name of the game and another reason why proximity control on those GIRs separate the field.

  • Winners gain a substantial number of strokes on the greens. More than off the tee and around the green combined. Not every recent winner has been a great flatstick guy, but that week they average over five strokes against the field consistently.

I'm grabbing flatstick guys who are a blend between those trending positively and who are always great. Colonial is a true T2G test. It provides an endless amount of attacking approach shots. Nestled between a major and Jack's tournament, I'm looking a little farther down the board for some action. I saw each of these guys closely last week, and they impressed me in different ways. I was considering next week's skill set when watching them in Rochester.

We continue to win because I am out there observing players live. Learning their strengths through seeing swings and not just comparing spreadsheets. I'm confident in this card and know we will contend again in the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Outright winners - Charles Schwab Challenge

*- member content

Read between the lines

The best place to follow news about Read The Line is right here!

Monday with Geno and the guys!

Following my coverage of the 105th PGA Championship, I played Oak Hill with three amazing guys: Doug Ferguson, Jeff Babineau, and Geno Bonnalie (Joel Dahmen's caddie). Take a moment and watch this fun video recapping our day on the East Course!

Tuesdays with Travis

Three weeks ago Keith Joined the Stripe Show podcast hosted by Travis Fulton. He predicted Wyndham Clark to win at Wells and the rest is history. Last week, he mentioned Brooks Koepka as the best bet. You'll see Keith now in a weekly spot with Travis breaking down the PGA TOUR betting board every Tuesday morning live at 11:00am EDT on Twitter. The link below will take you to yesterday's show, please go and subscribe.

Five wins in the books for 2023.

Congratulations to Brooks Koepka and all who tailed our pick last week.

Off to Texas again... let's go back to back and get number 6!

Head right to our website and join! Read The Line.


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