Postseason primer

I love THE PLAYERS. A unique course, kept in magnificent condition that tests the intellect as much as one's trajectory. Oddly enough, the fifty-first version of golf's fifth major created a couple of interesting storylines heading into the TGL semifinals. Let's start with The Bay Golf Club. Wyndham withdrew, Ludvig missed the cut, and Shane made the cut on the number. Meanwhile Patrick, Billy, and Justin gave us all an above average result. Is form relevant across the time space continuum between green grass golf and the SoFi Center? We are about to find out.

All twelve semifinal players were in Ponte Vedra Beach. The two teams for Monday's matchup had different results at THE PLAYERS. All six of these TGL teammates made the cut, but finished far away from one another on the leaderboard. Although the number one seed is favored, New York is the most improved team since the start of the season. NYGC lost their first two matches by a combined score of 13-2! Grabbing the final playoff spot by beating Rory's Boston Common was no easy task.

These are the four best regular season TGL teams, but after a wild weekend in Ponte Vedra, I wonder who is most ready for golf’s version of March Madness…

The format, course, and starting lineups

Collin Morikawa kicks off the first semifinal match followed by Xander Schauffele. Two top 10 players in the world set the tone as this match gets started. The last time these two met, LAGC was down 4-0 after 11 holes. Los Angeles won in overtime completing a crazy comeback. I'm sure New York remembers it well and would love a little postseason revenge. Shane Lowry starts Tuesday's semifinal. Justin Thomas will drive Atlanta from the start. These two teams had an epic tilt on Presidents Day. Justin Thomas faced a 22' eagle putt on the final hole of the match to try and force overtime. The Bay GC gave ADGC their only loss of the season.

We may not have Tiger and Rory in the playoffs, but we do have a couple of major golf markets covered in both matches. San Francisco, LA, NY, and Georgia definitely do not lack in sensational golf venues and audiences. I'm far from implying any of these cities feel a strong connection to their team, but their populations do love golf. And if you're going to grow TGL, the best place to build a following is in golf heavy regions.

<>The TGL format remains the same as our first 15 matches. We've covered the updated HAMMER rules as well for several weeks. If you have any questions concerning the league of the format of play, the​ ​TGL website​​ is a tremendous resource from top to bottom.

Keith's "TGL" Keys 🗞️ A couple of key insights you can claim as your own idea at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. Fatigue factor: The players have to be tired from a very long and mentally draining week at THE PLAYERS. If you are live betting the event, keep a sharp eye on performance and body language. Any signs of fatigue (or I don’t want to be here) and bet against them. Short range scoring: I started the season believing scrambling (and putting) would be the secret sauce to success. The regular season validated that belief as players did not hit nearly enough GIRs. HAMMER time: The two worst HAMMER teams went home. Boston and Jupiter lost 31 points combined and had an aggregate HAMMER differential of -19. Manage when to use the HAMMER best, and you will win.

We didn't quite break the 6,000 yard mark for the Semifinals scorecard. Once again a par 60 layout, the design team from TGL gives us the standard par 5 double at the turn, and short par 3 On the Rocks for the fourteenth hole. I'm a little disappointed we didn't get one par 3 over 190 yards, but I’m not part of the design team. Covering the TGL it is apparent the weekly course creators do have a specific plan in mind. Our first match was over 6,300 yards and a really tough test. We're in the playoffs and the average par 4 length is 425 yards. Seven of the 15 holes have a GIR% under 60 percent. We will definitely see some short game from both teams. That's a nice entertainment addition as these guys chip in at least one time per match. A couple more notes, I like Alpine in the Singles. One of the best par 4 challenges, it carries more anxiety when one player does not have his team around to help.

Four of NYGC's most successful holes can be found in this routing (Bluebonnet, Flex, Oh Chute, Straight Up) and four of LAGC's most successful holes are on this scorecard (Alpine, On the Rocks, Pick Yer Plunder, Set in Stone). Coincidentally, The Bay also has four of their most successful holes in this layout (Bluebonnet, Cliffhanger, Craic On, Sterling). ADGC only has three (Quick Draw, Oh Chute, Sterling). These are the best teams in the league and all of these holes have been very popular during the season. Three have been used in all 15 matches (Set in Stone, Cliffhanger, On the Rocks). Those three holes are all par 3s! Each hole in the routing has been used an average of 11 times across the regular season.

All 12 players competing tonight and tomorrow played in THE PLAYERS Championship. As I mentioned earlier, of the 12 only Ludvig missed the cut and Wyndham mysteriously withdrew. I was waiting all weekend for Min Woo Lee to be substituted for Clark, but that subplot did not materialize. The starting lineups are listed below in their order of play. New York changed their usual batting order, placing Cam Young in the third position and Xander Schauffele as lead off. LAGC has used a number of different lineups this season. Who could argue with their strategy, they are the number one seed.

• Semifinal 1
  • New York Golf Club (+100) - Xander Schauffele, Rickie Fowler, Cameron Young (Matt Fitzpatrick)
  • Los Angeles Golf Club (-125) - Collin Morikawa, Tommy Fleetwood, Sahith Theegala (Justin Rose)
• Semifinal 2
  • Atlanta Drive Golf Club (+100) - Justin Thomas, Billy Horschel, Patrick Cantlay (Lucas Glover)
  • The Bay Golf Club (-125) - Shane Lowry, Wyndham Clark, Ludvig Åberg (Min Woo Lee)

In the second match, Patrick Cantlay takes his familiar role of anchor and HAMMER czar. We've seen this lineup from TBGC before, and with great success. Sitting Fitzpatrick makes sense for NYGC. Do you think ADGC would trade Billy Ho for Lucas Glover? Glover's T3 at THE PLAYERS was impressive for a 45 year old. Justin Rose is debatable with Sahith Theegala, and I'm still surprised Wyndham is in over Lee after his short week in Ponte Vedra Beach.

Match breakdown(s)

Semifinal 1

The first match is a tale of two teams. Los Angeles GC did not lose a match in regulation during the regular season. Their only defeat came against Atlanta Drive in overtime. New York GC started the season 0-2 and looked very mediocre. A late season rush led us to believe this playoff team is for real. Leaving Matt Fitzpatrick at home was the first move, but a very suspect showing at THE PLAYERS raises a huge red flag. Schauffele, Young, and Fowler shot a combined 41 over par at TPC Sawgrass in rounds three and four. They finished sixty-first (Young), seventy-first (Fowler), and seventy-second (Schauffele) of 72 players making the cut. Los Angeles had Collin and Tommy near the top of the leaderboard for two days. Those two are the key to this match. LA's stars are shining while NY's are struggling.

LAGC earned 32 points from Triples and Singles play; New York earned 26. LA was better at hitting fairways and scrambling. Since both teams hit approximately 69% of their GIRs, the match comes down to scrambling and putting. LAGC lead the league in most putts made inside 20'. Los Angeles leads in both cases and one more important area; the HAMMER. LAGC has a positive HAMMER differential (+3) and has earned six points from throwing the orange flag. NYGC's HAMMER resume has all zeros. After 15 matches and 12 in the SoFi Center, I know what it takes to win.

Beware, Fleetwood and Morikawa have yet to lose a Singles hole this season, but this golf.

• Schauffele versus Morikawa: Collin's recent successful ball striking on tour has not translated to TGL. Morikawa is ranked last of all players in the league for GIRs. Straight Up is a simple target test, and one that Collin has not fared well completing. Serpent is another accuracy test for three shots. Xander struggled at TPC and Collin can't hit greens inside the SoFi Center. I don't see an edge between these two prior to play.
• Fowler versus Fleetwood: I thought this would be the matchup of the night, but Rickie was ridiculous (bad) this weekend in Ponte Vedra. Fowler played the last two rounds 17 over par. Tommy will start with a win on The Claw. A short (very) positional par 4, this hole is a perfect fit for Fleetwood's game. The second H2H hole is the very short par 3. Both players knock it close and they halve On the Rocks.
• Young versus Theegala: Here's where the night gets interesting. Sahith and Cameron were equally mediocre at THE PLAYERS. T2G Young was one of the worst who made the cut. Craic On is a 174 yard par 3 that throughout the season has been one of the tougher greens to hit. Neither carries a par 3 edge as these two are about equal in GIR success. Sterling is a fairway test for the first two swings. Theegala hits more short grass off the tee and will put himself in position to make birdie and win the hole.

Semifinal 2

Atlanta Drive didn't sneak into the playoffs. They had the same final regular season record as The Bay Golf Club (4-1). TBGC won more holes (25 to 21) in the regular season, so they end up as the second seed, but this Georgia team is a bunch of dawgs! These two played on Presidents Day, and The Bay GC won on the final hole when Justin Thomas just missed his eagle putt on the final hole. Had JT converted, the two teams would have headed into overtime. The Bay GC dominated Triples play this season winning 21 points. Atlanta Drive was awesome in Singles earning 18 points. The Bay is the best driving team and Atlanta Drive is the best putting team. We can go back and forth all day, but it is tough to find a performance edge in the second semifinal.

Then there's the HAMMER. Nobody played the HAMMER better than Atlanta Drive. ADGC won 17 HAMMER points and lost 4. Their 13 point differential was first in the league by seven points. The Bay GC won 11 points and lost 11 points during the regular season. HAMMERs not only score extra points in what will be tight matches, but they also provide momentum. ADGC has successfully used those moments to their advantage. Combined with an off week by Wyndham (WD), Shane (T20), and Ludvig (MC) at THE PLAYERS, I like the upset. Clark is going to get overconfident with the little orange flag and it will ultimately swing the match in favor of the FedEx Cup trio from ADGC.

• Thomas versus Lowry: JT is undefeated in Singles (3-0-5) and Shane has been far less successful (1-4-3). Looking at the holes these two will play, I like Thomas to use his Singles resume on Serpent. A quick H2H start on the par 5 fits Justin's aggressive style. Straight Up is a tough par 4 test and one where the field hits the GIR less than 60% of the time. Less of a birdie opportunity, these two will tie.
• Horschel versus Clark: We all saw the infamous Horschel video clip on Saturday of him saying his game was a mess. What we didn't see this weekend was Wyndham Clark. Picking one of these two in a H2H matchup might be the equivalent of betting on the weather. The Claw is an extreme accuracy testing par 4 and their second hole is a gap wedge off the tee. These two have too many questions to answer for me. Unless I see something straightforward on Tuesday night, I'm skipping their Singles matchup.
• Cantlay versus Åberg: Ludvig has not played a TGL match in a month. The SoFi Center superstar who is undefeated in Singles (2-0-4) is going up against the Iceman. Craic On is a tough par 3 that they will halve. Closing with Sterling, Åberg owns a huge advantage off the tee and reaches the green in two. I believe the match will already be decided, but The Kid will capture the final hole of the first ever TGL semifinal week.

Prior to the second semifinal match on Tuesday, the GOLF PRO BETTING SHOW will air at 3:00pm ET covering the Valspar Championship. On-site intelligence, DFS strategy, and the two best golf betting minds breaking down the Innisbrook Resort's Copperhead Course. Don't miss the live broadcast on Tuesday afternoon.

You can even ask questions during the show!

Semifinal 1, 2 Cards

Semifinal 1 NYGC vs. LAGC Semifinal 1 winner: Los Angeles Golf Club (-125 FD) Semifinal 2 ADGC vs. TBGC Semifinal 2 winner: Atlanta Drive Golf Club (+100 FD) ​ Semifinal 1 prop bet Semifinal 1 prop bet (2) Semifinal 2 prop bet ​(member only content)​ ​ For more TGL bets, become a member of Read The Line. ​(Click this button!) ​ Betting markets have been slow to post for TGL, especially Fanduel. They generally come out after we publish, so compare before you bet as they may have a better line.

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