Field of Dreams 🛌
Hawaii take twoCollin shot 32 under par last week and we lost by three, sigh. The PGA TOUR started coming to Waialae Country Club back in 1965. The Seth Raynor design (1927) has not changed much and as a result the Sony Open is the second most predictive tournament on the PGA TOUR schedule. Those who play well at Waialae tend to contend. We have our first full field event of the 2025 FedEx Cup campaign as 144 players try to navigate the 36-hole cut of the top 65 and ties. Those who do make the weekend will play for $8.7 million and a first-place check of $1.57 million. Sixteen of the last 17 winners have played WCC prior to winning. The lone outlier is Russell Henley (2013) and he’s a top three career strokes gained leader here. Henley’s a match made in Hawaii heaven for this track. We used to lean heavily on the Sentry participants when predicting the winner as 70% of the recent past champions played in the opening event. The TOUR competitions are changing, and the last two winners were not warming up at Kapalua the week before. The Sony Open starts in...Island hoppingWaialae is a par 70 scorecard that measures 7,044 yards. I’ve heard enough complaints about Kapalua and the 35 under par winning score. When do we start giving these guys credit for being really, really good. WCC is a strict ball striking test that rewards scoring too. The last 10 winners have averaged 25 sub-par scores the week they won. The average winning score is 20 under par over the last decade. Unless the wind really blows, this course has little to no defense. The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 80s and a chance of rain across the first couple of rounds. Winds should be much calmer than Kapalua even though we are still on the coast. Waialae sits about 10’ above sea level. That’s approximately 500’ below the seventeenth tee box last week! We’ve seen some windy conditions over the years, but this week looks prime for scoring. Rain has fallen on Monday and Tuesday making the surfaces just soft enough to hold those approach shots. Of course the weather can change, so don’t forget to use the real-time weather link below. There have been two players who have pulled off the Hawaii double win to start the season. Ernie Els (2003) and Justin Thomas (2017) BOTH shot a combined 49 under par over two weeks when they accomplished this feat. Seriously, both were 49 under. If Hideki wants to win the Hawaii island hopper like JT and Ernie, he’ll need another serious scoring week to do it. You will see a ton of birdies this week. Unlike last week, you will also see a bunch of bogeys. Five of the last 10 years have ended in a playoff (50%). Last year, three players were involved, finishing four rounds at 17 under par: Keegan Bradley, Ben Hung An, and Grayson Murray. Murray took the title and will be remembered often throughout the coverage. In a tragic turn of events, Murray took his own life in May last year. The troubled touring veteran battled with mental health struggles most of his career. Grayson made 20 birdies over four rounds and 21 if you count the playoff. That’s the blueprint for success at the Sony, create opportunities. Based upon the conditions, our winner on Sunday will be right around 20 under par. Twelve par 4s with an average length of 437 yards are a great place to start if you want to separate. Birdieing the par 5s helps, but they have a 55% sub-par scoring rate. Everyone birdies those holes. Can you handle nine of 14 tee shots moving right to left and then attack with a scoring iron. Two-thirds of the iron shots are from 125-200 yards. Navigate those approach opportunities and convert on these Bemudagrass greens. A par 70 scorecard does suit a specific player. It shouldn’t surprise you that these are the top 10 best “par 70 scorers” in the field.
When you start to look at a predictive venue like Waialae, the contenders begin to come into focus. This is the fifth shortest course on TOUR. It looks completely different from Kapalua and yet does require many of the same skills needed to contend; that’s the beauty of golf. Attack these two layouts with a solid Bermudagrass putting stroke and an impeccable wedge game and you can win. Familiarity breeds contendingWe have 39 debutants this week as the rank and file of the PGA TOUR get their season started. Course history plays an incredible role at Waialae, and we are not going to buck that trend. Let’s start with the scorecard. There are 12 par 4s to play each round. The past 10 winners have gained an average of 9.5 strokes on the field playing these 48 holes. Hit the fairway, hit the green, and putt the ball into the hole. We see the largest gains on the medium length 4s. A majority of players birdie the short ones and par the difficult longer tests. Attack the 400-450 range of holes and you will differentiate yourself on the leaderboard. We’re going back to Bermudagrass putting. Waialae has notoriously flat greens. Most island venues do as they need to be prepared for all types of wind conditions. Guys will make putts here and over the last decade, the winners gained an average of six strokes on the field with their flatstick. Hideki made what seems like a 1000’ feet of putts last week (really 394'). Continue playing the competitors who can make putts. Eight of the last 10 winners gained more than three strokes putting the week they won at Waialae.
Who will have the biggest comeback in 2025? You voted and ranked Will Zalatoris first, Jordan Spieth second, and Max Homa third. There will be a ton of content created this week mentioning driving accuracy, but I’m going to lean another way. I believe approach play is twice as valuable as strokes gained off the tee. This venue is a pure wedge fest and you MUST be able to create those close birdie chances. If your pick doesn't, I guarantee other players will. Picking the right wedge players requires a little research. The outrights and bets we have chosen are not just elite scoring iron players, but they excel in the wind or demanding conditions. The best ball strikers climb the leaderboard on weeks like Sony, Heritage, and RSM. Outside of the two par 5s and a couple par 3s, a majority of those iron shots are from very close range. Good drives gained is a great assessment of hitting fairways and when you don't, how close your misses are. Players who keep it close to the fairway give themselves the most approach chances. I'm not worried about hitting every fairway, but I do need players who don't end up behind trees. Don't miss the fairway by much and you're still fine. The rough is 3" of Bermudagrass which can be tough when conditions are firm, but with the rain yesterday and today these guys will hold greens. We've seen the scoring trends. Winners have more birdies than the final score. Bogey avoidance is another careful consideration. Bermudagrass rough can be a pain if you aren't used to playing from those varied lies around the green. The depth is what always gets players. The ball can sit low or high in that grass which are two very different shots. The better short game competitors have a propensity to contend versus those who can't save as many pars. Make sure your card has plenty of scrambling skill. I received a bunch of comments last week about the popular par ranges, so back by popular demand.
The Sentry is fun, but I love a full field event with a cut. The Sony drew a nice collection of players and will create an entertaining ending. Five playoffs in 10 years, it always does! Collin came close last week. If you gave me 32 under on Wednesday, I would have taken it. Turns out Hideki had other ideas. The best part of golf betting is a clean slate each week. Enjoy the Sony and keep a close eye on that leaderboard as I'm confident a couple of our guys will be there. Outright Winners - The Sony Open
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