Fever Pitch π
Port paradiseJust two stops left on the PGA TOUR's endless event schedule for 2024. Don't worry if you want more, we still have Tiger's tourney in the Bahamas and a team event in Naples following the Thanksgiving break. To those in search of top 125 status and a 2025 TOUR card, the Butterfield Bermuda Championship awaits. A field of 120 is headed to the pink sands of Bermuda to compete for $6.9 million and one more invite to the Masters in April. Yes, the winner of each fall event gains entrance to Magnolia Lane in the spring. What a world when you consider only 1 of the top 50 in the world are competing. This is the sixth edition of the BBC. Past champions span the spectrum from LIV deserters to PAC members. Ironic? Not really, the fact is this deep in the fall tournaments will take anyone. Last week, Billy Andrade played in Mexico and this week we have popular YouTube golf personality George Bryan. His brother Wes just finished sixth in the WWT, but I'm not sure how that got George a sponsor's invite to Port Royal..? The core of competitors this week are still those looking to make moves on the βFEC points listβ. A quick review shows two qualifying cutoffs. Fifty-one through 60 get early season signature status and the top 125 get their 2025 TOUR card. Butterfield Bermuda Championship starts in...Winds of changeEarly forecasts show we have a wild week in store out in the mid-ocean. Temperatures are predicted in the low 70s and there's rain on the agenda for late Friday night into Saturday mid-morning. The breeze is also coming to Bermuda. We expect wind in the mid-20s all four days with gusts into the mid-30s. Port Royal Golf Course is a par 71 resort course reaching 6,800 yards but add 30 mph wind and even the best in the world will be tested. The average winning score is 19 under par, but that is deceiving. Of the five editions to date, two finished at 24 under par and two wrapped at 15 under. I bet you know which year(s) the wind blew! Bermuda is one hour ahead of ET time, plan accordingly! That looks like the case this year where winning will be in the mid-teens. The over under for the winning score is -13.5. The greens are generous at 8,000 sq/ft, but the fairways are about one quarter as big as what these guys saw last week in Mexico. With an average par 4 length of 402, these guys aren't worried but miss the fairway and nestle in that Bermuda rough and it becomes a pretty good guessing game. Compound that with windy conditions and we may be able to limit scoring, a little. Players will also need to avoid 87 bunkers and the water on seven holes. Under normal conditions, 14 holes have a birdie rate over 15%. Watch out for those par 3s though. Eight, 13, and 16 are the three toughest holes on the course relative to par. All three are over 200 yards and the sixteenth hole's left boundary is the Atlantic Ocean. At 235 yards on the scorecard, the final par 3 will be playing into the wind three of the four rounds. How about hitting a true long iron or fairway metal into this hole with a one-shot lead on Sunday? The first six holes are the most protected. Players MUST get off to a fast start especially in these conditions. Once they turn west on number seven, they head directly toward the water. The remainder of their round they are going to battle the breeze. The final three holes all have water in play and the reachable par 5 seventeenth playing down wind will ultimately decide the championship. When Camilo Villages won last year, he finished T2 in Mexico the week before. Can another close call from Mexico make a winning charge in the Atlantic? In order to do it, they will really need to control their trajectory. Not just because of the wind, but also due to the terrain. The island of Bermuda is the rim of an undersea volcano. The land above ocean water is just one third of the actual plateau top. Take a look at a satellite image of the island. Bermuda is just the southeast side of the entire rim. As such, this rock jetting up from the ocean floor is extremely uneven. Port Royal has a number of crazy elevation changes. Take that trajectory control to the next level when players are hitting up and down along with the wind. Only the best ball strikers better apply and that's a precursor for where we are going with this betting card. Strange things happen in the Bermuda Triangle, and I believe this week will follow suit. Just like the winning score, the cutline also follows the weather pattern. When the wind blows, getting under par gets you to the weekend. Keep in mind, we also have less players this week. Much has been made about the 2026 field size changes, but we only have 120 in the field, and it was 132 a year ago. The same holds true for Mexico last week. (Could you imagine the next 12 guys that would be in this field if they did?!?!?) The motivation remains the same. Twelve of the twenty players around the 51-60 range are playing this week and 19 of the 20 players between 115 and 135 on the FEC points list. Self-preservation is priority number one on the pink sand beaches of Bermuda. Triangle traitsIt is not a coincidence that Seamus Power is our betting favorite this week. The top 5 strokes gained guys in the field at the BBC in order are: Seamus Power, Justin Lower, Brendon Todd, Matti Schmid, and Alex Smalley. Not the most historic list, these are the guys who continue to come here and play well. Each of them has at least two starts at Port Royal. Further review of those five reveals a couple of traits they all hold in common. Let's start with the par 4s. As a par 71, Port Royal has 11 par 4s. Six of the 11 holes are between 350-400 yards in length. Getting the job done on these scoring holes is essential to leading the career strokes gained total category. These five gentlemen are all exceptional wedge players. Great wedge play is all about controlling trajectory. If you have ever been to a TOUR event you have noticed elite players love to hit their driver and long irons high and their wedges low. By controlling trajectory, you control spin and that makes the best very good/great at distance control. The ability to hit the ball pin high is Scottie Scheffler's superpower. Much like Tiger 20 years ago, distance control is everything. As the conditions get challenging, these five guys have proven they can hit it close from uneven lies, uphill or downhill, and in the wind. More than half of the par 4s will have a wedge on approach. Proximity in those scoring situations is a priority. Once we reach the green, each of these guys can putt Bermuda. Very few places have grainier Bermudagrass greens than Port Royal. Yes, we are in Bermuda and that's the point. Players who can stand stable in the heavy wind and make four to six-foot putts on these greens will be your contenders. Like so many skills, certain players are just better than others. The conditions will also cause the players to miss GIRs. When that happens, we will see extra short putts to save par. Those who can continually make the grainy short ones will succeed. Four of those five are in the top 25 for bogey avoidance. This is not the first year these guys have played in the wind at Port Royal. Their ability to make par and avoid giving strokes back is a primary reason why they lead the career strokes gained rankings. The same four (all but Todd) also sit inside the top 20 in this field for BoB%. Making birdies is key and a trait that will serve you very well this week. Should the wind lay down, this quickly becomes a birdiefest with two winners getting to 24 under par. We may only get one round with great conditions, and if that happens, we need guys who can go deep quick. Players who can take advantage of a soft weather wave and grab the lead. Any course where Brian Gay has four top 12 results (with a win) in five starts tells us that accuracy is more important than length. Brian Gay is 52 years old! The course is 6,800 yards long, keeping the ball in play around 12 dogleg tee shots is a huge advantage. This is a great week for good drives gained. A statistic that measures how much you miss by OTT. Players that excel in this category keep it close to the fairway. We want 18 straight approaches each round. We prefer the fairway, but the ability to take dead aim on every approach will give you more birdie chances. Our players don't go sideways very often and that's one more reason why they play well here. The FedEx Cup Fall has been interesting. Keith Mitchell has been the betting favorite twice. We had two winners with pre-tournament odds over +20000 (Kizzire and Echavarria). The average winner's pre-tourney odds for this event in five years is +9700. Who can survive the wind? Follow our betting narrative and you'll have an excellent chance in answering that question across H2H, prop, and outright markets. Outright Winners - Butterfield Bermuda Championshipβ The ANNIKAMuch like the men, the women face a deadline this week in Tampa. The top 60 on the βCME Pointsβ list get an invite to next week's CME Group Tour Championship. Part of the buildup to the season ending event has been an added emphasis on the penultimate contest; The ANNIKA driven by Gainbridge at Pelican. I know it's a mouthful, but the LPGA ends their season with a boom. Two events on the west of Florida finish the season long run. The first added Annika Sorenstam as the host a couple years ago. In doing so, the event was immediately elevated. Bring in the modern GOAT of women's golf and you get the player's attention. Years ago, the better players who earned a spot in the tour championship would skip this week. With a great venue and Annika on board they are playing and giving the LPGA a nice boost to close the year. Just like the men, we have a bunch of ladies right around that 60-mark fighting to get in next week. They should battle, the tour championship has an $11 million dollar purse and $4 million for first place. The ANNIKA starts in...An amazing recoveryPelican Golf Club is located in Belleair, Florida. A suburb of Tampa, the region has been hit by two major hurricanes in the past six weeks. Helene went through Tampa/St. Pete on September 26 and very soon after Milton ravaged the region on October ninth. Rain estimates vary greatly by area, but the fact PGC can even host this tournament is a testament to their hard work and perseverance. Covered in wall-to-wall Bermudagrass, this classic design was originally conceived by Donald Ross. Renovated in 2019 by Beau Welling, the luscious landscape rolls with the Tampa terrain. Located just a little over a mile from the Gulf of Mexico, our weather this week should be quite pleasant. Temperatures are forecasted in the low 80s, and a mild wind is expected in the high single digits each day. Fall golf in Florida is quite wonderful and a main reason why the LPGA tour comes here late in the season. Pelican Golf Club really blends one hole into the next. Closely mown areas connect the course creating a beautiful velvet green carpet from start to finish. Miss those 8,000 sq/ft targets and your short game will be tested. Not just by the 52 bunkers or several ponds, but by the manicured mounds and swales that surround each green complex. Asking Annika to host isn't the only highlight of the week. Caitlin Clark has agreed to participate in the Wednesday Pro-Am and a leadership panel. The most popular female athlete in America will give the ANNIKA some serious attention versus a sleepy PGA TOUR week in Bermuda. Truth be told, I'm excited for the special event they have planned. Gainbridge has really leaned in and the 120 players in the field will be competing for $3.25 million and $487,500 for first place. Outside the majors and tour championship that's a great purse. The LPGA doesn't need more events, it needs more events like this! A special week with star power. By bringing in Clark and showcasing their own athletes under Annika's watchful eye the world will really see what a fantastic product the tour has. Belleair's bestPelican Golf Club is one of those very subtle scorecards that tests your game without a ton of flashy waterfalls or windmills. One of the few par 70 tests on tour, this course measures 6,349 yards.
Pelican Golf Club will not knock you over with length. This is a shot makers setting. All four past winners also own major championship trophies. Defending champion Lilia Vu launched herself to number one in the world last year with a victory in Belleair. Her game suits the simple course design. PGC requires you do the very basic skills in golf well in order to win. With 70 acres of fairway on property, you must hit the fairway. Get outside the short grass and you won't be able to attack these holes. The 70 acres can be slightly deceiving at times because these greens are also surrounded by short grass. The average approach falls between 125-175 yards. A short or mid-iron for most, make sure you are knocking it close. Proximity on these large green surfaces is important and will limit three-putting. More than half of the last two top 10 leaderboards were inside the top 10 in strokes gained approach. Of the four main strokes gained skills, iron play was the most influential. Putting was the second most important, and as I just mentioned, they go hand in hand. These Bermudagrass greens are sophisticated. They require a deft touch and an exacting measure of skill on approach. Contenders hit an average of 78% of their GIRs over the past two years. Another analytic that points toward ensuring you can compete for the championship on Sunday. The average cutline over four years is one over par. Another clue that PGC is an Annika approved test. One of the four editions was shortened to 54-holes (2022) so to compare the winning score, we have to compare it by round. The winner's average 4.3 under par (per round) on their way to victory. Multiplying that out, our winner gets to 15 or 16 under and the cut is +1? That's always the sign of a well-rounded test. The course will be in the best condition possible. Sources on-site have told me itβs playing on the softer side. The property lost between 40-60 trees. That's not going to materially change much as the course wasn't covered in tree lined fairways. Seven players of the last two top 10s also found themselves inside the top 10 for par 4 scoring that week. PGC has 12 of them, and with a couple extra it becomes a huge separation skill to score on these holes. Seven of the 12 are under 400 yards and will permit plenty of scoring chances. Pay attention to the par 3s as well. Recent winners have picked up a couple of strokes there as well. Two of the 3s are over 180 yards and the other two have water in play. Like I mentioned, it is a well-rounded test. That's probably why Nelly Korda has won here twice. Korda's first Pelican championship came in a playoff over Sei Young Kim (defending champion that year), Lydia Ko, and Lexi Thompson. How about that leaderboard! We haven't seen Nelly since late September. She pulled out of Asia due to an injury. The Florida native has always been great in the Sunshine State. Can she return to that springtime six-win form or will Lexi give us one more magical run? Ruoning Yin has two wins in the last month and number of other players such as Haeran Ryu are all eyeing one more title in 2024. Kicking off the week with Caitlin Clark was a great idea, but I cannot wait until the final nine on Sunday. The Annika always delivers great competitive fire, much like woman it was named for. Outright winners - The ANNIKA
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