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Ryan Gerard finishes fourth and becomes our 20th top 4 finish of the season (35 events). Gerard had a clean card through 14 holes and just could not get any closer. Congratulations to Michael Brennan, his third win in 33 starts on the PGA Tour, and second win in his last five events. A generational OTT player, Brennan has gained with the putter in seven straight starts since The Open Championship. More wins on the PGA Tour than Ludvig Åberg, fans and fellow players better start paying attention to him. Unlike Koivun, this golf swing is built for speed AND longevity. At 24 years old, Michael joins an amazing crop of young American talent on Tour. Jackson Koivun, Akshay Bhatia, Blades Brown, Michael Thorbjornsen, Ben James, (and Brennan) are all under 25 years old! Include the 29 and under crowd, suddenly that list includes Cameron Young, Chris Gotterup, and Jacob Bridgeman. The future looks bright, even in the often overcast Limerick City of Ireland.
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The ladies of the LPGA took a travel week while the Baycurrent Classic was being played. As the men return stateside, the world's best women take center stage in China at the Buick LPGA Shanghai. RTL readers all remember this event for good and bad reasons. In 2023, we hit Angel Yin's first career win (+5000). In 2024, Mao Saigo and Sei Young Kim both finished second, and in 2025, Minami Katsu held a four-shot lead on the back nine only to lose in a five-hole sudden-death playoff! Needless to say, we have been shanghai'd more than once in northeast China. This event started in 2018 but took a three-year break due to COVID (2020-2022). The LPGA returned in 2023, and the event has kicked off the autumn Asia run ever since. The first five editions were played at Qizhong Garden Golf Club. In 2026, tournament officials have moved the event to Sheshan Golf Club. Known as the Augusta National of China, I am quite excited to see this venue on television.
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The LPGA published their 2027 schedule during the off-week. The season begins in February at Lake Nona for the sixth consecutive year. Let's hope the ladies don't get frostbite again and complete the Tournament of Champions. From there, the winter overseas tour begins for a month. The women return halfway to Hawaii for their first full-field event of the season in early March. The same week as THE PLAYERS Championship. (sigh) The major championship schedule boasts three incredible venues for the US Open (Inverness Club), KPMG PGA (Congressional Country Club), and AIG Open (Royal St. George's). The Chevron goes to Memorial Park in Houston one month after the men compete in the Texas Children's Open, and the Evian Championship goes back again to the Evian Resort. Venues are the cornerstone of every major championship, as the PGA of America will soon find out, placing PGA Frisco up against St. Andrews and Pebble Beach in 2027. (double sigh)
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The women will play five major championships in 101 days. The final four majors take place 59 days, the last three in 38 days. Let the wine breathe! Following the major season, the women take a two-week break in August (lol). There's still a four-week Asia tour in the fall, and the CME Group Tour Championship remains in Naples, Florida. The best news for the LPGA is that every event now has a purse over $2 million for the second straight year. Appeasing the Asia television contracts cannot be easy, and since 16 of the top 20 players in the Rolex Ranking did not compete in the Solheim Cup, it is a significant media concern. Change attracts attention in golf, and since this schedule simply mirrors the last few years, I fear most will engage with the women's tour when it’s convenient. Based upon scheduling their US Open against The Memorial and PGA Championship against The Travelers, chances are not good that it will happen.

Shanghai Masters?

"The Augusta National of China," that's the phrase that first pops up when you research Sheshan Golf Club online. We love our friends at The Masters, so I'll reserve judgement at least until we see the venue on TV Wednesday night. Yes, this is another early start to the wagering week. The Buick LPGA starts Wednesday night in China; get all of your wagers and lineups in on time! A par 72 scorecard covering 6,735 yards only boasts an average par 4 length of 390 yards. Eleven holes have water in play, including the final six. A closing par 5 bordered entirely by blue water, the final three holes are going to provide an infinite amount of entertainment this week. Unlike our favorite venue in Augusta, Georgia, Sheshan GC has 90 bunkers and 3" of rough framing the fairways. The greens are Bentgrass, but the rest of the agronomy is Paspalum. Our second straight start on the sticky grass; unfortunately, only 11 of the top 25 on the odds board competed at the LOTTE two weeks ago. One of those competitors, Jeeno Thitikul, won the LOTTE and is the favorite in this field at +400. Did I mention she’s also the defending champion? Fact is, Thitikul is not the outright favorite by much; Miyu Yamashita is +495 across the books. Yamashita won the CPKC four starts ago and has not finished outside the top 8 since in three starts following her win.

I am loving the layout of the golf course. Each hole is framed in its own little environment. With so many double bogey swings possible, we have to focus on players who can handle this golf habitat. Every driver hole is met with a blue and white border. The blue? Water. The white? Bunker. Longer hitters will be able to carry a few of these corners, creating better scoring opportunities, but don't get wet. If the rough is 3" of paspalum, which I doubt, the ball will sit up as it did in Hawaii, creating plenty of chances to score from the rough. A little extra power in those situations does not hurt, but overall, most of the outrights I selected can swing it pretty hard. That power won't hurt on the reachable par 5s and stout par 3s. The average par 3 is 183 yards. All four one-shot holes are longer than 175 yards. Conversely, the brave will be able to get after three (or four) of the par 5s in two. Only 81 players are in the field, and all are guaranteed four rounds if they can physically finish. There is $3.2 million in the purse and $480,000 for first place.

Money matters, but with five events remaining on the LPGA schedule and the next four in Asia (including the Buick) all being a limited-field event, the time is now for those precious CME Points! Remember the top 60 make the Tour Championship, which has an $11 million purse. The last two Buick winning scores have been in the mid-20s. I realize that was a neighboring course to Sheshan GC, but the conditions will be similar. In the last three years, we have won this event and had three second-place finishes. Fifteen players in the field are from the CGA. That leaves just 66 LPGA players. I know that sounds like a great outright opportunity, but there are three players with pre-tournament odds under 10-1. I mentioned Miyu and Jeeno, but Ruoning Yin won in her last start at the FM Championship (RTL pick!!) and this event in 2024 at 25 under par. Avoiding those three won't be easy, but by diving deeper into the outright equation, I believe there are a couple of edges that will give us a great chance.

How to win?

The WGC HSBC Champions was played 14 times at Sheshan Golf Club from 2005 to 2019. A detailed look at the leaderboards reveals a couple of clues that will be valuable when it comes to predicting who will win the Buick. A quick look at the list of past champions at Sheshan reveals a who's who of professional golf from that time. Phil Mickelson (2), Sergio Garcia, Martin Kaymer, Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy are all past winners on this property. That list screams major championship success, and I think there's where our focus needs to start. There are only a few major champions in this field, so I am seeking a slightly different inquiry: "who has a major championship skill set?" Sheshan Golf Club posted an average winning score of 17 under par in those 14 tournaments. How did the guys get there? To start, I mentioned earlier that critics claim this golf course to be the ANGC of China. Aside from the obvious hyperbole, go back and read the list of past champions. You can add Francisco Molinari and Justin Rose to the list as well. Every single one of those players has seen success down Magnolia Lane. As we know, to win The Masters takes a very specific set of skills.
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Based upon the weather and turf conditions, I predict a winning score in the high teens. There's a ton of scoring potential across the better half of this field, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the number reach 20 under par if the weather holds. Many of the old HSBC interviews key on par 5 scoring. Looking at the exceptional design of SGC, I see their point. The successful strategy this week will be to attack the 5s and short 4s, par the 3s, and do not card any double bogeys. Fourteen might be the only par 5 the longer women cannot reach, but the other three are definitely reachable in two. We witnessed firsthand in Japan (last week) how length and accuracy can differentiate you from the field. Does the LPGA have a Michael Brennan style of player? Look at those past champions, it is a par 5 hall of fame scoring list. Much will be made of the risk-reward nature of these 500+ yard holes, but we know the LPGA will set up the course for scoring, and the easiest spot to see sub-par scores is on the 5s.

Holes 3, 7, and 16 are all par 4s under 350 yards. Selecting the best scorers from inside 100 yards is also part of the secret sauce at Sheshan. The ladies will attack these short par 4s off the tee because they are far more accurate than the men. In doing so, there will be a bunch of scrambling moments to score. Take the four par 5s and these three par 4s, and now you have seven great birdie or better opportunities per round. Another advantage to taking the best short game scorers is these green surrounds. Shaved, sloped, and pure Paspalum, around the green acumen and excellent pitching ability will give you an edge. I'm not necessarily looking for players to save par as much as score when it comes to the short game. There are enough great players in this field that if you are missing a bunch of greens, it won't be your week. I believe making birdies from inside 75 yards is a proven path to success at this venue.

Most of these holes are bordered by water or sand (or both) off the tee. If this were another PGA Tour event, I would look at this differently. Fact is that the women are much straighter than the men. The combination of power and accuracy is far less common in the average LPGA player versus the Tour. Looking through the fairway targets and knowing how aggressively the men attacked this golf course, I see a great opportunity for success with the driver. With an average par 4 length of 390 yards, the bombers will be cutting corners and setting up more scoring chances. Most of the media looks at 11 holes with water and says the women will play for position. Players don't see a golf course through a penalty lens; they use a scoring one. These women really don't miss. As such, they are not worried about the water or sand until late Sunday afternoon. By looking at a combination of SG: OTT, total driving, and accuracy, we can determine who has the decided edge in this limited field.

The best putters have an edge on new venues. You know this from our recent coverage of new and recently adopted venues on both tours. They one, read the greens better, two control their speed, and three simply make more putts. I have given an edge to the better putters, but favoring the flatstick aficionados on the greens is not the primary key to winning. I took a deep dive into the best approach players. Much like its azalea counterpart, Sheshan GC is a true second shot golf course. These green complexes are full of sections, segments, shelves, and funny approach angles. The featured approach range buckets are a bit bi-polar. The par 3s will require some long iron play, but the remainder are going to use scoring weapons. With paspalum rough, analyzing the best players from off the fairway on approach also applies. A few of these favorites played in the windy conditions at the LOTTE. Finding the best iron players from that field will start the list for the best approach options this week.

Closely mown areas surround nearly all of these green surfaces along with 45 greenside bunkers. The fairways are plenty wide for the world's best women, and the greens are sure to be in tremendous shape. That's a huge improvement over last year at Qizhong Garden, where the putting surfaces were all but dead. I love this new venue for the LPGA, and I cannot wait to see the women compete. I remember the WGC HSBC; a truly fun event to watch. What will not be fun to watch are the two betting favorites. Jeeno just won the Walmart and is the defending Buick champion. Miyu won in Canada four starts ago and since has placed 6-8-3. Yamashita does not miss fairways and is the best putter-scrambler in the field by a mile. I think the path to victory runs through her. If our outrights can attack through the air and hit a high ceiling on the greens, we have a chance. Don't forget, the event starts in a few hours!!

Outright Winners - Buick LPGA Shanghai

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