End of the Rainbow 🌈
He's back...PEBBLE BEACH, CA Ludvig looked amazing last week, and then he got the flu. Picking outrights can feel like a near impossible task at times, but with a couple very nice Lee Hodges hits and a perfect 4-0 H2H card on Sunday we did more than survive the wild week that was Torrey Pines. We also learned quite a bit as we now know the TOUR is going back to Torrey for the Genesis Invitational. Keep those Famers’ notes close as we will reopen that chapter in a couple weeks when we return. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am received a much-needed lift in 2024. A tired TOUR event skipped by so many due to six-hour pro-am rounds and traveling from course to course, was injected by a $20 million purse and massive cut to the field size. That’s the only cut you’ll see this week as with signature status, this field of 80 elite players (45 in the top 50 OWGR) have four days to win the title. I didn’t say four guaranteed days as last year this was a 54-hole event. Hurricane conditions hit the Monterey peninsula on Sunday and cancelled the final round. Wyndham Clark’s Saturday course record on Pebble Beach Golf Links gave him the lead and one he would not give up on the final day. This week also marks the return of a couple key PGA TOUR players; Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth. Spieth had wrist surgery in September and Scheffler was sidelined by a holiday hand accident. Both are back and looking for a quick start to their 2025 campaign. Our 2 & Done starts on THURSDAY!Read The Line's Signature Series TWO & Done contest begins with the AT&T on Thursday. I have always wanted to create a contest just for us. A skill based endeavor where strategy played a very important role and this is it.
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A signature settingWith changes to the purse came a couple of tweaks to the AT&T format. Eighty players will compete on Thursday and Friday across two courses with their pro-am partners. Starting Saturday, the amateurs are out and just the signature players will play 36-holes over the weekend. The PGA TOUR will use Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Links for the tournament. Here are the most important facts about each venue.
This is one of those weeks where it’s a huge advantage being on-site. Course conditions can change in the blink of an eye, and we will be covering the event all week from a pre and live betting perspective. My first mission on property was to track down the two biggest question marks.
I was also curious to see how the TGL guys were going to handle the cross-continent commute. The entire Boston Common Golf team is competing this week along with Tom Kim from Jupiter Links. Walking the practice areas, I get the feeling all of these guys are feeling the external pressures of what the PGA TOUR is facing right now. There’s a very business-like vibe taking place. With that in mind, I'm leaning toward the most serious of contenders in the field, being anxious is not for everyone and I believe certain players will thrive in this environment. In keeping with the “environment” theme, we have February weather in Monterey. Hey PGA TOUR, it’s winter and although this place is along the water, we won’t see a high temperature over 55 degrees this week. Thank God it’s a small field event and no players are teeing off at 6:40 am PT. The forecast calls for cool temperatures and a chance of precipitation over the weekend. The wind is always a factor at Pebble Beach, and we saw what it can do to a betting card or lineup last weekend at Torrey Pines. AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am starts in...Both courses are in immaculate condition. California has not received any rain from San Diego to San Francisco. Pebble Beach and Spyglass are both firm and playing fast. Players will be attacking the front edges of greens and chipping when they bounce off. These are small targets by TOUR standards. There's going to be a bunch of wild bounces based upon the practice rounds I have seen. The surface is hard which doesn't make the courses any easier. Bombs awayWe have been fooled into thinking these are purely positional golf courses from watching the middle-tier fields compete across these courses for the past 20+ years. Watching last year on-site was a completely different experience than Tom Hoge steering his way around the Monterey Peninsula. Look at that leaderboard from a year ago. Wyndham Clark, Thomas Detry, Ludvig Åberg, and Scottie Scheffler are all great SG:OTT guys, and they used driver everywhere. These guys didn’t lay-up OTT unless they absolutely had to. It was full throttle all week and I expect to see a similar approach with all of the preparation I have seen on the practice tee. With these firm and fast conditions, most players will end up getting even closer to the green than usual. The annual wedge fest continues across both courses as 14 of the 20 par 4s measure under 430 yards. Trajectory and spin control are the two biggest keys and a major reason why players like Jordan Spieth are always in contention here. If you have ever seen Spieth hit wedges in competition, then you know what I’m talking about. The green surfaces on both of these courses are very small. Pebble Beach owns the smallest ones you will see on TOUR. Precision on approach is the first factor one can focus on for contending. Looking at the numbers for approach acumen over the past 10 years are staggering. The winners create so many great birdie chances with their scoring weapons. When I look at the course conditions and compare the forecast, you are going to need a number of chances. The average winning score over the last decade through all sorts of weather is still 19 under par. That’s with all of the pro-am footprints on the greens and distractions; these guys are good. Building a game plan to win, I want another Wyndham, Scottie, or Ludvig. The overall length of the course will bring a bigger field into play, but in the end taking advantage of the par 5 scoring by reaching them in two and separating on the hardest par 4s is the path to victory. Scoring averages on Spyglass are also an area I considered. I realize it is just one round, but AT&T leaderboards are built around players who score at Spyglass. The amount of elevation changes and elements really force the field to play well if you are going low away from Pebble. Since the greens are so small (firm!) and we are exposed to the ocean, bogey avoidance, scrambling, and short game are all very important considerations. A player’s ability to turn a round of 70 into 67 is vital. Spyglass has 62 perfectly placed bunkers, and Pebble Beach has 116! Scrambling savvy by the best in the world is not always a given. Where power was a separating skill last week, short game will set you apart on these two tracks. Yes, I mentioned ball speed earlier, but if you can add a little greenside savvy to your credentials, you’ll climb the leaderboard here. My final skill to touch upon is putting. Great putters excel at Pebble Beach. The greens are so small that if you are hitting them routinely you will have legitimate birdie chances. Both courses are overseeded with Poa Annua. The last five winners have gained an average of five strokes on the field with their flatstick. I thought with the dry conditions down in San Diego, the guys would make more putts especially from close range. Turns out, that wasn’t the case and the Poa seed heads popping is still a problem even for the world’s best players. Proven west coast players and Poa aficionados are my focus. The par ranges this week only cover Pebble Beach Golf Links. I'm happy to report, we will finally get Shotlink data for Spyglass Hill GL this year! Unfortunately, the past analytic data does not currently factor in SHGL. Here's the breakdown for Pebble Beach...
I’ll be on-site for four of the next five weeks. We’ve been contending and not closing so far in 2025. It’s time to change that trend on the road. If you didn’t see the Golf Pro Betting Show yesterday, then make sure you check it out. Matt and I covered all of this and more. Here’s the link – GPBS. If you have any specific questions, you can always email or DM me. Our community pursuit of winning is my only priority, and we are going to get it done this week! Outright Winners - AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am A fresh startThe LPGA season could not start soon enough. After a historic campaign by Nelly Korda in 2024, the ladies need to get back in front of the fans. Golf’s professional landscape is extremely competitive for attention. With the growth of YouTube golf and addition of the TGL, you don’t want to be late to this party. For the fourth year in a row, the LPGA visits Lake Nona Golf and Country Club for the Hilton Grand Vacations Tournament of Champions. Thirty-two ladies fill out the field of winners from the past two seasons. Six are from the top 10 of the Rolex World Rankings and 19 of the top 30. They are joined by a great cast of celebrity golfers who join them in competitive play over four rounds. Just like the AT&T, this is a no cut 72-hole, limited field, pro-am event. HGV TOC starts in...Lake lifeKnowing I would be on the west coast covering the AT&T at Pebble Beach, I traveled over to Lake Nona while I was in Orlando last week for the PGA Merchandise Show. This event used to come earlier on the calendar, and I could cover the season opener on-site. Alas the schedule never really works, and I did my course conditions recon last week. Lake Nona is a standard scorecard par 72 design by Tom Fazio (1986). I’m not a huge Fazio fan, but I love this course because it will truly test every club in the bag. You have to play very well to win here. The average winning score over the past three years is 15 under par. This event is older than 2022, but it has moved across various venues. They settled on Lake Nona four years ago, and it has elevated the tournament. The women get a better field of famous people to play alongside, and Lake Nona is truly a world class facility. Twenty-five touring professionals call LNGCC home. The course measures 6,624 yards and Tom takes you through four par 3s and 5s and 10 par 4s. It has been cold and wet in central Florida. The place looked magnificent as I witnessed plenty of rough grass surrounding the landing areas. Keep the ball safe this week and you will be able to score. What a difference a week makes! The forecast calls for temperatures in the high 70s and low 80s. There's a slight chance (25%) of rain on Friday night into Saturday morning. Although we are surrounded by lakes, the wind looks fairly calm. Now it was brutally cold last week during the PGA Show and it rained. The course received 1.53" of precipitation a week ago. With temperatures popping and the sun, watch out for the rough. This place is going to be in magnificent shape and play tough should you send your ball off line. Lake Nona doesn’t play as the longest course on tour, but it does require excellent accuracy. The greens are an average of 5,900 sq/ft in size and the fairways pinch in all the right places. Each of the par 3s have a penalty area (water) in play and the course is covered in 58 bunkers. There’s also 16 acres of waste bunkers the women weave through for four days and those areas are treated as bunkers as well. Needless to say, we want expert technicians on our betting card. Champions testI have played Lake Nona a multitude of times; competed there in tournaments and watched the world’s best play in the Tavistock Cup. There are no super difficult shots on this course, just a basic necessity to hit a succession of those required for four straight days. Seventy-five percent of the approach shots come from 125-175 yards. That’s above the weekly average, but not an insurmountable task for the LPGA’s recent winners. When I think about competing at Lake Nona, there’s a very specific strategy needed to succeed. You can miss a couple fairways, but you won’t be able to miss a bunch and hit these green surfaces even in the soft conditions. The greens are too small and the approach angles from the rough make it near impossible at times. Hitting a ton of fairways will be important and especially on the longer holes such as the par 5s. Those 16 scoring chances (par 5s) are a key to contending this week. The past few years, our LNGCC winners have averaged nine under par on the 5s. Second shots from the rough will wear you out as you try to get close (or on) those greens in two. Last year’s winner, Lydia Ko hit a ton of fairways on her path to victory. Over the past three years, the top 10 finishers have averaged hitting 74% of their fairways. That level of accuracy helped them hit 75% of their GIRs. That’s the next step to winning this week. Master the mid-irons and play conservatively on approach. Go ahead and attack pins with a wedge in your hand, but do not start firing at targets from long range and make mistakes. The winners gain here on the greens. What I mean by that, is this tournament will be won by making mid-range putts on Poa trivialis greens. Of course, there’s always a little Bermudagrass grain left in these greens even with the over seed, but the putting surfaces looked perfect. Based upon the way they performed the past three years, players benefited most from their flatstick. Those same three top 10s gained over two strokes (on average) while contending. These greens aren’t just difficult to hit, but they are small with shelves and run-offs. Navigating them with no three-putts is a priority. Miss them and you bring in a whole other set of issues. This is where the strategy kicks in. I like players who have competed here before because they already know a specific game plan is needed to contend. You cannot miss these putting surfaces in certain places, even if you land on the green. A solid strategy is required. Players are going to miss fairways and that will lead to missing GIRs. The key is to look for players who position themselves properly on tour week after week. By limiting short game saving shots over 72-holes you stand a very good chance to win. I took a look at the past leaderboards and compared their par (3, 4, and 5) scoring. We’ve established those par 5s are vital to making sub-par scores, but the leaders definitely played the par 4 holes great as well. Keep an eye on our leans as they are the best par 5 and par 4 players in this limited field. Since this is such a small collection of players, it’s a good week to pick up an outright and a couple of props. I know this course very well and understand the skill set needed thoroughly. Let’s take that knowledge and start the season off with a week one win. Outright winners - Hilton Grand Vacations Tournament of Champions
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