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After TWO full weeks, the PGA Tour is back to start another season at the Fortinet Championship. We've heard about changes coming to the tour, but don't get too excited yet, most of this will seem pretty familiar this fall. The larger changes to the 2022-23 wraparound season won't begin until the new year. In the meantime, we'll cozy up to some of our favorite fall events one last time.
The Fortinet is played at the Silverado Resort and Spa (North Course). Situated in the heart of wine country, this tournament has always attracted a wide assortment of grapes, I mean players. We have your journeymen PGA Tour guys who must love wine, the recent Korn Ferry graduates, past champions, and sponsor invites. Based on that eclectic group, the list of champions is quite varied.
There's a reason these guys head to Napa this time of year and that's the weather. The temperatures are predicted to reach highs in the mid 70's and lows in the mid 50's each day. There's a less than 10% chance of rain all week and the wind should blow just enough to keep everyone's attention. Saturday is the windiest day at 12-15 mph, but the other days are all showing wind speeds around 10-12 mph. It truly is birdie weather and I believe our contenders will take full advantage.
The Fortinet has gone through a couple of evolutions during its tenure on the PGA Tour. Remember Safeway and Frys.com as sponsors? Not just the name has changed, believe it or not, but the manner with which these guys attack the course has evolved as well! What used to be a strategic game plan has given way to a more aggressive bomb and wedge blueprint. When considering our contenders, I took this recent alteration into account significantly.
The Silverado North Course is a Par 72 layout measuring 7,118 yards. That's pretty short by PGA Tour standards especially when you consider there are four Par 5's. In fact, this collection of Par 4's is one of the shortest these guys will see all season. Nine of the ten Par 4's measure under 450 yards. It takes a certain player to score from all sorts of wedge distances. If you remember Max Homa's win last year, he took advantage of those Par 5's and Par 4's with insane accuracy from under 150 yards.
I really like this tournament. The blend of characters is really unique. Four guys this week will play in the President's Cup in eight days. Others just graduated from the Korn Ferry and face their first ever PGA Tour event. They are all bonded by the ability to make birdies and to contend they better make a bunch of them.
Much like the Fortinet, the AmazingCre Portland Classic has held a couple of different sponsor names. One thing that hasn't changed much is the host club. Columbia Edgewater Country Club has hosted eight of the last ten Portland Classics and thirty-four editions overall. Needless to say, the crew who is heading out to Oregon has experience at this venue. The definition of tight tree-lined fairways, CECC is a Par 72, 6,478-yard design that will truly test a player's accuracy on all shots.
Much like northern California, the weather in Oregon is pretty good this time of year. Considering we are in a part of the country where rain plays a significant role in their day-to-day, there's only a 33% chance of rain on Saturday into Sunday. Otherwise, the wind plans to be very calm (less than 10mph) and temperatures will be seasonable. That means mornings in the mid 50's and highs in the upper 60's and low 70's. Much like Napa, perfect weather for scoring.
The tee shots at Portland really are what matters most. We'll get deeper into the skill set when we talk about outrights, but for now, it is worth mentioning this field is a little on the weaker side. Highlighted by Nelly Korda and Brooke Henderson from the Top 10 in the Rolex rankings, and past them, there are only six more players in this field from the Top 30! If one of these leading ladies should slip, look toward that middle tier to jump up and take home the title.
What does it take to win in Portland?
Players can make birdies on this golf course. Year after year, when the LPGA shows up so do low scores. I have selected certain ladies who I believe can go low when accuracy is of the utmost importance. I'm also keyed into the scoring it takes to win on these Par 4's. They vary in length and topography. Not only do they bend back and forth, but they travel quite significantly up and down. Elevation changes always challenge the next level of a player's ball striking.
We have two tournaments in primetime this week. With both on the west coast, we can easily catch coverage at night even during football season. Enjoy the amazing views on this course as the evergreens really dominate the landscape. You'll see some trees in Napa as well, but up in Portland they truly define the edges. Like the ladies, let's keep it in play and move along.
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The season starts at Silverado
The Silverado Resort has started the PGA Tour season for the past couple of years. Looking back at the winners, we see a couple of trends that cannot be ignored. Length and ball striking jump to the top of the list, but so does the scorecard. The North Course has a very unique setup for a PGA Tour course.
The funny thing about this course is that it has some of the tightest fairways on the tour. Yet, the penalty for missing them is not very severe. In fact, Silverado ranks in the bottom five on tour for missed fairway penalty. So bomb away boys and get as close to the hole as you can. Each of the recent champions struck the ball great T2G, but he also was very skilled at avoiding bogeys. You can get tripped up on this course quickly if you're not careful.
Getting close to the green on every Par 4 and 5 leaves you with a wedge in hand. Take a look at these approach percentages.
This all makes sense, when we look at the recent champions: Cam Champ, Max Homa, and Kevin Tway. Send it down there and pitch it close. One of the defining ways we can measure how well a player can hit their target from short yardages comes from their ability to scramble. Around the Green skill and Scrambling proficiency count at Silverado. That ability to always get it close from varying distances on those short Par 4's and three-shot Par 5's is a recipe for success.
We'll need to make a bunch of birdies, so the Birdie or Better % better be in line with getting to twenty under par. When it's all put together, and we see these really defined trends come into view our list of outrights will get you really excited.
Taylor Pendrith (+3000)
Cam Davis (+3300)
Pick 3* (+8000)
Pick 4* (+12500)
(*- member content)
Between the trees please
When you first turn on the television this weekend and see Columbia Edgewater Country Club you will not believe the tree-lined fairways. All sorts of evergreens create hallway-like holes for these ladies to contend with. As I mentioned in the narrative opening, there's a strong bias toward the left to right tee shots here. My contenders either are extremely accurate off the tee or bend it that way. Honestly, some of these holes are just amazing how they have been carved out of the forest.
Driving accuracy is just step one, then the ladies have to contend with the green size. CECC has small greens at the end of these hallways. All eighteen have at least one bunker around them although fifteen have two or more. Short game skill is important since these small targets aren't always easy to hit. Especially if you miss a fairway or two. Similar to Silverado, Par 5 scoring is really important alongside successfully navigating the variety of Par 4's.
When you do hit the green, you better make birdie because even though this course requires a premium on accuracy, the average winning score over the last seven tournaments is in the high teens. We've established T2G play is vital, Approach play, and birdie conversation rate. You can also include GIR% and Par 4 scoring to round out the analysis. As we can see by the field, it seems only a handful of LPGA players make this trip annually. My point is, those who make the trek, like this golf course. The better players who do attend all seem to play well here. Overall, I think course knowledge does make a significant difference. You will definitely see that in my list of outright winners.
Brooke Henderson (+900)
Hye Jin Choi (+1000)
Pick 3* (+3300)
Pick 4* (+4500)
(*- member content)
If there's a big golf tournament, I'm going! This week, I travelled to Korn Ferry Q-school with a player who I coach to observe the next generation of great players. In a week, I'll be in the media center at the President's Cup. I cannot create the best betting content, unless I see and experience the players as often as possible. That's my commitment to all of you! Of course when I'm there, we have to have some fun on social media at the same time.
Check out this cut from the Tour Championship two weeks ago! Click the picture or button below to watch.
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