Deere + Fourth... finale?

A little less than 250 years in the making, the John Deere Classic has been a blue-chip sponsor on the PGA TOUR. Only one other current sponsor, AT&T, has owned a longer run in partnership with Ponte Vedra Beach. As we all listened to Brian Rolapp last week in Connecticut, one theme rang out through the TOUR's talking points: things are going to change. We've all heard the rumors of the PGA TOUR asking John Deere to move their event to Chicago. I think we all understand that Silvis, IL, is not the connection to commerce that the Windy City is. I've got news for everyone: neither is Cromwell, CT. We all feel TPC River Highlands is far from a championship test, but that doesn't stop the Travelers, or the Cromwell community, from making it an elite event. Look at the crowds who came back for a Monday morning playoff!
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As I put Brian's blueprint into perspective, my hope is that some of these smaller-market tournaments remain on the schedule. To do that, it will take some serious cash from partners to maintain those community connections. I cannot help but think of the timing of this announcement as well. Scottie said it best during his press conference last week: "When tournaments ask me throughout the year, ‘ What can we do better?’ I'm always like, ‘ If you want to learn anything, just come to the Travelers Championship, just because they do it the best.’ So for us, it's always fun, it's a great golf course, a good place to come compete, good fans as well. So for us, it's just a fun event overall." If fun still matters to the most competitive player on the planet, that means something.
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I'm pretty sure this is the last time any of the world's elite players are heading to Silvis. For the community that has supported this event for so long, I hope you have one more great week. And to those new communities coming in 2028, pay attention to the JDCs of the world because if the fans are in agreement on anything, we want more fun!

The John Deere Classic starts in...

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Tractor track

Thirty-three of the top 100 in the OWGR are heading to TPC Deere Run. That's approximately the same strength of field as we have seen over the past few editions of the JD Classic. The purse has been raised to $8.8 million with a $1.584 million check for first. Back to a "full field" of 144 players and a cut to the top 65 and ties after 36 holes. Believe it or not, we are going to get a Friday cut on the PGA TOUR for the next SIX WEEKS! There's really nothing better than the pressure of elimination. Just ask the World Cup players in the knockout round. You think those penalty kicks are any fun! TPC Deere Run presents a par 71 scorecard stretching to 7,327 yards. That's 38 yards longer than last year. Tournament officials have updated the fourth hole by adding nearly forty yards to the par 4 and three fairway bunkers. That bumps the bunker total up to 76 for the entire course. Three holes have water in play, and just 23 acres of fairway to hit across all 18 holes.

Las Vegas has set the final score over/under at 261.5 or 22.5 under par. Silvis has seen its fair share of rain in June (7.81"). The YTD rainfall accumulation is approximately three inches higher than the annual average. A steady diet of rain and now heat and humidity will make TPC Deere Run pretty sticky. DA Weibring's layout is already one of the top 5 predictive venues on TOUR. Simply put, if you have a solid course history in Silvis, you have an edge. With receptive greens and hot, humid air, the ball will be flying off the tee, and the approaches landing with pinpoint accuracy. The average green size of those putting surfaces is 5,500 sq/ft. A little below the TOUR average, they are covered in Bentgrass. The terrain, small (ish) greens, and medium-sized fairways, we just covered, all of the defense TPCDR can put it against some of the best ball strikers on the planet.
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The average winning score of the JDC over the last decade is 22 under par. The average cutline is 3 under par in that time period. In fact, the JDC has not witnessed an under par cutline in the last 21 years! Much like TPC River Highlands, scoring will be a large part of the winning blueprint for the JD Classic. Tournament officials have leaned into the timing of this tournament in a couple of ways. First, the average winner's pre-tournaments odds in the last 10 years are +11200. By embracing weaker fields and promoting their middle tier winners, many of the past champions always come back to the Quad Cities. Take Jordan Spieth, who is in the field. Spieth first won here at 19 years old! That gets me to my second point: the JDC leadership uses those openings in the field and the July Fourth date to attract new stars. Jackson Koivun is the latest in a lineage of names to make the John Deere a recurring stop. Keep an eye on Koivun as most books have him as the fourth or fifth favorite on the odds board! He finished eleventh in his tournament debut last year.
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With 250 years to celebrate, what better way to embrace America than with an entertaining tournament that supports one of the United States' most iconic brands? If this is goodbye, let's hope the John Deere Classic goes out with a bang over the holiday weekend!

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How to win?

A glance at the historic strokes gained numbers for the JDC tells a story. Players need to find the fairway, knock it close with a wedge, and make a ton of putts. The winner has gained an average of seven strokes on the field with their flatstick over the past 10 years. All of that leads to a 20+ under par total and the trophy. If you forget the formula, getting to 23 under par requires 25 to 28 sub-par scores through 72 holes. In order to collect that many birdies or better, the contenders will need to create approximately 36 realistic birdie chances. That's 50% of the holes this week where a top 5 player on the leaderboard gives themselves a putt inside 25'. How many 25' birdie putts do you give yourself in a month if you play five times? A couple per round, and we are looking for 36 (or more) in four days.
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To best explain the skills proven to create JDC contenders, I'm going to have some Fourth of July fun and use the comp (comparison) courses to give you a great idea of the exact skill set I am using to predict the winner. Let's start with accuracy off the tee. When you read (or hear) fellow betting contributors say you need to hit the fairway, what are they really saying? Does that mean we are playing Harbour Town GL or Memorial Park? TPC Deere Run is somewhere in between. Since that doesn't really answer the question, let's compare the width and challenge of Weibring's design to some others we know. TPC Scottsdale and Silverado's North Course (Napa) are great comps. Imagine hitting the fairways there. TPCDR gives you room off the tee. The fairways are wide enough that accuracy matters and gives you an edge. Miss those landing areas and pay a substantial price. Guys can really gain on the field if they consistently find themselves in the short grass.
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Approach experts are going to be touting wedge play. I like TPC River Highlands and Sedgefield CC as great comps. Plenty of wedges are on the daily menu, but don't overlook the longer approaches on the par 3s and second shots on the par 5s. Those are excellent scoring opportunities. Three of the four par 3s have a scoring average over par at Deere Run. Play those 12 holes under par for the week, and you'll be three or four shots ahead of the curve. When you look at the entire spread of iron shots at TPCDR, each range bucket is slightly higher than the TOUR average. A percent or two, but the point is in order to produce that analytic, these 18 approaches are insanely balanced from 50 to 250 yards. In doing so, approach mavens like Alex Smalley and Doug Ghim over the years come to mind at TPCDR. Guys who have the ability to produce proximity from any length. I'm avoiding any specific approach ranges this week and just using weighted strokes gained approach.
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With 5,500 sq/ft greens (on average), players are going to miss a few. With two short par 4s and three par 5s, that is five more scoring chances for the best scramblers. Overall, I won't place a heavy emphasis on around-the-green acumen. Of the four basic strokes gained categories, I'll weight this one the least. Six of the last 10 winners have gained less than two strokes on the field with their short game. The close shots to save par at TPCDR are not difficult. The average PGA TOUR player has great success playing from many of these situations with success. Think of a spot like Detroit Golf Club as a comp.
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When it comes to the putter, TPC Deere Run might be one of the most difficult venues to predict. Much like a TPCRH, the greens are flatstick favorable. Average putters have proven they can make putts here. Players make more than the PGA TOUR average from a majority of the range distances from the hole. The best way to explain this might be by looking at the past champions. Our defending champion, Brian Campbell, lost strokes putting in five of seven events leading into the JDC and his last THREE prior to the tournament. Davis Thompson three of seven, Sepp Straka two of three coming in and no trend to see, Lucas Glover five of seven, and before Bryson won here in 2017, DeChambeau lost strokes with the putter in eight of his prior 11 starts. You can fill your card with some trending flatstick guys, but be prepared to grab one or two flyers. Guys that have proven they can score on these comp courses or who have putted well at TPCDR before. Keep in mind, this is a top 5 predictive course for past performance.
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Since we need sub-par scores, filtering for scoring matters. Instead of using all birdiefest venues, be selective. Stick to the Sedgfield, Silverado, Scottsdale, and similar comps where the scoring requires the leaders to be more well-rounded. With 11 par 4s, I'm watching par 4 scoring. The John Deere is a great week to explain why comps are so important. Understanding how each skill separates the field across familiar venues creates a precise player model in your mind. Collin Morikawa gave us another podium finish in 2026. That is now 11 top 3 outright predictions in 23 events. Forty-eight percent of the time we have been that close and not crossed the finish line. Davis Thompson gave us a win at the JDC, let's use those Quad City vibes along with our consistent contending and get a win. Hey golf gods, we are due!

Outright Winners - John Deere Classic

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