One wild week?

SCOTTSDALE, AZ

It’s safe to say the WM Phoenix Open has a wild reputation. Just last year, the Saturday storm of too many people led to closing alcohol and food sales prior to 1:00pm! The average winning score is 18 under par and nine of the last 17 WMPOs have finished in a playoff. I’m here (on property and figuratively) to tell you that the tournament itself is not all that wild. In fact, the Phoenix Open is the third most predictive event on the PGA TOUR behind the Sony Open and the Masters! Looking for a couple more reasons why this week is NOT wild…

• Nine of the last 10 winners of this event have won THE PLAYERS or a major championship. Some have won both. The only exception is Nick Taylor.
• Only one winner had pre-tournament odds over +5000 in the last decade. Taylor again was the one last year.
• We’ve seen three two-time winners in the past ten years, and twice they won back-to-back. Hideki Matsuyama in 2016-17 and Scottie Scheffler 2022-23.
• Nine of the last 10 winners had a prior finish at TPC Scottsdale of seventh or better. The only outlier is Brooks Koepka who won in his first try (2015) and backed it up with another WMPO win in 2021.
• Thirteen of the last 14 winners have finished top 10 in one of their previous five starts before winning.
• When it comes to those last two trends, only 19 players in the field fit the criteria.
  • These are the guys we should all be focused on...
  • Nick Taylor, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Daniel Berger, Rickie Fowler, Charley Hoffman, Billy Horschel, Kurt Kitayama, Matt Kuchar (WD), KH Lee, Hideki Matsuyama, Maverick McNealy, Andrew Novak, JJ Spaun, Camillo Villegas, Gary Woodland, and Cam Young

Not that strange of a place after all. That’s what happens when a tournament takes on an identity. Many times, what the fans see, and the pundits report does not accurately reflect the actual competition. The WM Phoenix Open has the second lowest average winning score of any event we have witnessed already on TOUR (Farmers is the lowest).

Golf Pro Betting Show

Read The Line has joined forces with Run Pure Sports to create a one of kind golf betting show. Airing every Tuesday afternoon at 3:00pm ET on YouTube, X (Twitter), and Instagram. Tune in to see our very own PGA professional Keith Stewart alongside professional DFS player Matt Wiley. This week, Keith will be live from TPC Scottsdale covering the WM Phoenix Open. What other golf betting show gives you the best of both worlds (betting and DFS) along with premium ON-SITE access! Click the button to watch this week’s show from yesterday at TPC Scottsdale.

A second stadium

The other Stadium Course on the PGA TOUR (TPC Sawgrass being the first), most folks don’t know TPC Scottsdale is a 36-hole facility. Our field of 132 players playing for $9,2 million are playing the Stadium side. The Thunderbirds have added some seating over the years 😉, but if you strip away the stands, hills frame this layout on all sides. It is one of the best spectator courses on the PGA TOUR for that reason. Any area that does not have stands also has hills to help you see. This rolling terrain of northwest Scottsdale presents a par 71 test measuring 7,261 yards.

The top 65 and ties are playing the weekend to win $1.7 million. There’s no doubt this is a polarizing week. Some players love the party and others avoid it. WMPO had signature status two years ago and that seemed like overkill for the world’s elite. The fans (all 600,000+) appreciate the middle tier guys who have made this event a mainstay on their schedule. Joel Dahmen is treated like Spieth this week. The fans around the arena will never forget Sam Ryder’s hole in one. Average names live like stars for one week in the desert.

Keith's Keys 🗞️ A couple of key skills you can claim as your own at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. You can find complete explanations for each in the betting breakdown. Proven par 4s: Seven of the last 10 winners have gained 11+ strokes on the par 4s over the field the week they won. Very aggressive: I love aggressive players this week. Hideki, Phil, Brooks, Rickie, and Scottie all attack the course. Make sure you players do too! Putt for dough: The GCSAA reports mentions a Poa Trivialis overseed at TPC Scottsdale. According to the TOUR putting coaches, this blend plays more like bent than Poa.

Those guys are the foundation of our betting card and DFS lineups. We’ll get into the archetype player later, but just know this week means a bunch to both sides of the fan-player relationship. Last year that connection was tested by the weather. Thankfully, the forecast for 2025 is really good. High temperatures in the mid 70s each day give way to sunny skies and no rain. The wind looks relatively tame as well which will be welcomed by those who played Pebble Beach last weekend. Seven thousand square foot greens are covered in a Poa Trivialis overseed. That blend is the same grass we see at TPC Sawgrass for THE PLAYERS. Any doubt why Scottie has won twice at both venues. Most putting coaches will tell you; these greens roll more like a bentgrass surface than Poa.

Playing at 1,250 feet above sea level has its advantages. TPC Scottsdale is annually in the top three for longest average driving distance courses on TOUR. Aggressive play is not only rewarded here, but also essentially to contend. Especially when you consider the three eagle opportunities awaiting you over the final six holes. No lead seems to be safe even if you are the number one player in the world. Twenty-eight of the top 50 in the OWGR are here ready to take on this Weiskopf design from 1986. They will see 67 bunkers and seven holes where water comes into play. Six of those H2O holes come over the final eight on the scorecard.

WM PHOENIX OPEN starts in...

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For the second week in a row, I'm on-site to cover the course conditions and player practice sessions prior to Thursday. More than half of the field (59 0f 80) who competed in the AT&T made the trip down here along with me. Walking around yesterday, the course is in perfect condition. Now don’t get caught up in all of this scoring talk, yes 11 holes have a birdie rate over 15%, but 10 have a bogey rate over that same value. In the last five years, the winners have averaged 23 sub-par scores and yet there’s an average winning score of 18 under par. TPC Scottsdale can grab your attention if you get off the green grass.

Need further proof, look at the average cutline. Over the last decade, the number to make the top 65 and ties is even par. On a course with three scorable par 5s, a couple of short par 4s and an average par 3 length under 190 yards, you have to love the volatility. I certainly do and cannot wait to see how it all plays out this weekend in Scottsdale. Last year was pretty wild watching Nick Taylor sink the winning the putt and then rushing to a local Superbowl party.

Go for it

Similar to how this betting narrative started, I believe there are a bunch of misconceptions about how players contend at the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course. There’s plenty of great approach play and timely putting, but let’s get specific in our analysis. When reading through this list, remember the overall predictive nature of this layout.

• You must drive for show. You'll hear plenty of people downplay the driver this week. They will quote the elevation and say that distance is mitigated because of the wide fairways and desert run out. Truth is that winners of the WMPO have used the driver to distance themselves from the competition. Look at the winners over recent years: Hideki, Brooks, Scheffler, Woodland, and Mickelson. Some will point to Webb Simpson and Rickie Fowler. In 2019, Fowler gained over five strokes against the field off the tee. In the last decade, the winners have gained an average of three strokes on the field. If BoB% matters this week (which it really does) then players will need to put themselves in position to score starting from the tee box.
• Then putt for dough on these greens. Others will say this is a no-putt week. Meaning our winner won’t need to be a great putter, just a great ball striker. I tend to disagree. Last year, Nick Taylor won with his putter down the stretch. Three years ago, Scottie holed a mid-range putt to beat Patrick Cantlay in a playoff. Fact is, players make more putts over 15’ here than the TOUR average. These flat greens help the below average rollers, but they also ensure great putters convert birdie opportunities. I categorize a Poa Trivialis overseed like this closer to bentgrass than the Poa we have experienced the last two weeks in California. That’s coming from putting coaches like Phil Kenyon and John Graham. It’s a very important distinction that gives us an extra edge in Scottsdale.
• Who can punish the par 4s. Par 4 scoring seems to determine winner’s week after week. It is a great cumulative stat that measures a couple of very important skills. The last 10 winners have gained an average of 11 strokes on the 4s against the field. Seven of the 11 gained over 11 strokes on the field the week they won. Find the best par 4 scorers. If Webb Simpson has won on your course, then you are a par 4 paradise. In 2023 when this was a signature field, Scottie gained over 17 strokes on the par 4s. Seventeen strokes in a signature field! Our leaderboard will be covered by these par 4 competitors.
• Balance your scoring. Winners gain approximately eight birdies on the field over 72-holes. Don’t get lost in just BoB%. There’s a balance at TPC Scottsdale. Miss the green landing areas and you’ll be competing for par. I mentioned this in the course details, there are almost as many bogey holes as there are birdie ones. Strokes gained around the green doesn’t account for much on the data charts, but it matters on the course. Each of the recent winners has completed a late up and down to preserve or produce their victory. It’s imperative to keep those middle rounds going when you find yourself in the desert. Scrambling also leads to scoring on the par 5s and drivable seventeenth.
• Looking for the par ranges that reward the most strokes gained, here you go for TPC Scottsdale.
  • Par 3: 175-200
  • Par 4: 450-500
  • Par 5: 550-600

What is aggressive play and why is it rewarded here? Weiskopf presents the players with a number of risk reward choices. Just like certain players love the sixteenth hole atmosphere, and others don’t. To score at Scottsdale you must go for it on several occasions. In many cases, par will not keep you in contention. With the conditions I see across this course and the forecast we expect, the birdies will be bountiful. Scoring records will be tested and that requires you to go for a green in two from the desert at times. Hit an aggressive approach shot pin high to a back hole location. Some players will do that and some just won’t, and THAT’S why this course is so predictable.

When players like Phil, Scottie, and Hideki get going, there’s no neutral. I want scorers who attack flags they shouldn’t during major championship weeks. These are the few, the aggressive mindset PGA TOUR players who can go low from anywhere. Be careful, because they come in all shapes and sizes. For every Scottie there’s a Charley, and for every JT there’s also a Poston. Match the elite attackers with recent form and you have the formula for success at the greatest show on turf.

The Drop Podcast

I (Keith) joined Ryan and Mike from The Drop Podcast last week to tell the origin story of Read The Line and educate their listeners on the world of golf betting. Listen as I break down my process for picking 37 winners in the last three seasons. If you haven't heard this story or the other interesting details behind RTL, then take a moment and enjoy this entertaining interview.

Outright Winners - WM Phoenix Open

Since the start of 2025, Sungjae Im is 49 under par. Im has two top 4 finishes in four starts. A successful Scottsdale competitor, Sungjae has five starts, five made cuts and two top 7 finishes. I stumbled upon a Sungjae range session last week and couldn’t take my eyes off the ball striking. We know Im can win in the desert, watch him do it again. Sungjae Im +2200

The ultimate showman, Billy Horschel lives for the arena. Horschel has two top 10 results in his last five WMPO starts and just finished ninth at Pebble Beach. Billy gained eight strokes on the field in tough conditions and five of those strokes were on approach. Another four with the putter at Pebble and he's ready for WMPO glory this week. Billy Horschel +6500

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Inside the ropes at the 2023 Genesis Invitational

Can't find a home

Our first full field event of the season is the Founders Cup. An event that started a few years ago in Arizona, then traveled to two different courses in New Jersey. It was played in the fall and in May while in the Garden State. A “premiere” event on the calendar that celebrates the original founding members of the LPGA. In 2025, the Founders Cup will take place in Bradenton, Florida at Bradenton Country Club. BCC hosted the LPGA Drive-On tournament last year which has also seen homes in Arizona and Florida over the past three years. The Drive-On was dropped for 2025 in order to keep the Founders Cup on the schedule. Welcome to the LPGA…

Founders Cup starts in...

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Back to back Ross

Fourteen of the top 25 players (six of the top 10) in the Rolex World Rankings are competing this week. The field is full because many of these women have not played since The Annika back in November. If you miss this week, the next full field LPGA event in America is March 27! Following Florida, the women head to Asia for a month and those events are all limited fields. Needless to say, if you are an American star, rookie, or bubble player, you must get your season “started” at BCC.

Oddly enough, The Annika is played on a Donald Ross design which is also what we see at Bradenton CC. Constructed in 1924, the women will play a par 71 scorecard stretching 6,557 yards. If you are familiar with the facility, they flip the nines for the tournament. If you’re just seeing this course for the first time, get ready for some sand. Much like the venue Congaree on the PGA TOUR, BCC is framed in bunkering from start to finish. Fifty-three bunkers in total, they will test any and all errant shots. Twelve holes have water in play and with one year under our belt at this course we know accuracy reigns supreme.

One Ross characteristic we also see across this classic design are his challenging push-up greens. The surfaces sit above the surrounds and that design dynamic creates a unique challenge around every green. Last year, the region saw tons of rain leading up to the Drive-On tournament. This year the course received a ton of damage during hurricane season. We will see newly sodded areas from lack of water drainage in low areas and a bunch of trees are gone. The Tampa region received historic storms this past fall but hasn’t seen much precipitation since. As such, the short game savvy needed when the course plays firm will be much different. Temperatures are forecasted in the low 80s each day and the players should stay dry.

We will see some wind throughout, but nothing above 10 mph on the current online forecast. Nelly Korda took home her first of seven wins in 2024 at Bradenton CC in a playoff over Lydia Ko. Korda seems ready to capture another Florida crown near the region where she is from. No doubt she will have plenty of support. It’s also a fact she won The Annika back in November on that recently restored Ross course. A very modern player, Korda seems to excel on classic courses. Let’s be honest she excels everywhere.

Eleven under par got her into the playoff against Ko and four under par got you into the top 10. I expect the course to play similarly from a scoring perspective. Korda also wrapped up her HGVTOC experience with a final round 65 at Lake Nona (132 over the weekend) to finish runner-up. Oh yes, she and Scottie are back at it again, but we may have a way to combat her low odds. Please pay attention in the prop section. I don’t love the LPGA schedule, but I do like the pressure it puts on the field to perform. The top 65 and ties will play the weekend for $2 million and $300,000 for first place. Our card will favor the usual fine Florida players and a couple of elite competitors from the JLPGA. It’s going to be tough to beat Nelly, but I believe we have just the strategy to do it.

Keeping up with Korda

This course will catch your attention. Outside of the major championship venues, it was one of the most entertaining layouts we experienced last year. The design is pretty wild with an incredible mix of sand and water to watch out for. Looking back at the top 10 on the leaderboard, I see one glaring theme. Megan Khang, Ayaka Furue, Nelly Korda, Andrea Lee, XiYu Lin, and Lydia Ko are all really, really accurate off the tee. I would compare it to any course on the PGA TOUR where you see all of the long iron players contend, or the bombers fill the top 10.

All of those names tell you the number one priority around BCC is get the ball in play off the tee. We thought about this last year and weighted it in our research, but it was even more important than we expected. Couple that with dry conditions and you better hit the ball straight as any errant shot will run out further on the firm turf. You didn’t have to be long (although that helped), but straight was the primary key. From there players led the field by hitting excellent approach shots. The same top 10 players gained almost five strokes (on average) against the field with their iron game.

Hit those greens and the same group of 12 players in that top 10 (ties) also gained an average of 3.5 strokes on the field across the Bermudagrass greens. There’s a huge edge in knowing the best Bermudagrass putters on the LPGA. No models or filters available, this comes from traveling with the tour and knowing their career tendencies. The same names always pop in Florida no matter how bad they seem to be playing in other parts of the world. We know the elite Florida putters and will be playing them.

A big reason for why putting becomes such an edge is the severity of these green complexes. Ross was no joke and the same guy who planned out Pinehurst designed BCC. Converting birdie chances are important, but you also have to make putts inside 10 feet to save par and keep that round momentum going. The top 10 from a year ago averaged 16 sub-par scores and only two women finished in double digits. Third place was eight under par. Maintaining a strong birdie to bogey ratio is an analytic built for just such a setting. You must save your fair share of scores to keep close. With sand everywhere it helps to know the best sand strikers and scorers from close range.

Talk about accuracy, those 12 ladies hit an average of 76% of their fairways and 81% of their GIRs. That’s some serious dart throwing people and Korda/Ko led the way. Between the two of them last year they won 10 times, with two majors, and one gold medal. If the plan is to compete with them and score you must take advantage of the (three) par 5s. They average 509 yards in length and gave up the most birdies. After those scoring chances, hold on for the rest. I love the urgency this week, and the unknown of what’s to come as most of the field has not competed since early November. Together those two themes create great anticipation for the start of the 75th LPGA season.

Outright winners - Founders Cup

Minjee Lee fired a 10 under par 62 on Sunday and finished fourth at the HGVTOC. An extremely strong ball striker, Lee's putter let her down in 2024. A quick switch to a longer flatstick to start 2025 and Minjee is off and running. Minjee Lee +2000

Three straight 68s to close the HGVTOC (seventh last week) and Lauren Coughlin is picking up right where she confidently left off last year. The two-time winner is another excellent ball striker who can navigate this course and win this week. Lauren Coughlin +3500

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