Burned again

Who knew the best comp tournament for Royal Birkdale was the 2025 RBC Canadian Open?!?!?! Ryan Fox won in a playoff over Sam Burns while Cameron Young finished T4 and had a chance to win on the 72nd hole. All sarcasm aside, what a finish to the Open Championship. Ryan Fox birdied four of the last six holes to grab the Claret Jug by one stroke over Young. Tommy Fleetwood finished T4 at home, Siw Woo Kim and Sam Burns broke their backers’ hearts and then there's the real storylines from Southport! Bryson DeChambeau and the fescue footsteps felt around the world, and Scottie Scheffler's dropgate. Fox will be overlooked by these two stories for years to come, but what a finish. Sure as Sam Burns backers we are all very disappointed, but that close by the Kiwi was clutch. Enough cannot be said or written about the two DP World Tour journeymen and what they accomplished this year. Aaron Rai and Ryan Fox are two great players and now deserving major champions. Will either ever catch lightning in a bottle again? Probably not, but they definitely made our major season more meaningful.

I'm sure the Scheffler saga will not subside as the number one player in the world heads to Blaine, Minnesota for the 3M Open. The next stop on the FedEx Cup regular season schedule, Scottie is the only player ranked inside the top 31 in the OWGR at TPC Twin Cities. With the major championship season behind us the primary focus of the PGA TOUR shifts to Signature status. With one more year of money grabs, getting inside the top 50 by the BMW Championship is extremely important. That's four events away counting the 3M! The purse is $8.8 million and 144 players are trying to make the top 65 and ties to accrue precious FedEx points and that first place prize of $1.584 million.

3M Open starts in...

​

Waterworld

No venue on the PGA TOUR produces more penalty strokes than TPC Twin Cities. Nestled just north of Minneapolis, this TPC venue will quickly catch your attention. That's not to say it will impress you like Aronimink, but this Arnold Palmer (2000) layout hosts 27 different water hazards. In fact, fifteen holes have water in play along with 72 bunkers across this par 71 scorecard. The course measures 7,431 yards, and it's important to note that Blaine sits at a little under 1,000 feet above sea level. Thin the air, and that ball will carry. Past champions have been a bevy of solid ball strikers. Kurt Kitayama is the defending champion. Kitayama shot 23 under par, edged Sam Stevens by one stroke, and Jake Knapp (and three others) by three. That leaderboard alone gives you a great hint for the desired skill set required to safely navigate this venue. The first 3M Open was contested in 2019. A playoff victory by Matt Wolff over Collin Morikawa and Bryson DeChambeau, there are a couple more champion hints. Since then, in the following six editions, Cam Champ, Tony Finau, and Jhonny Vegas (an 80-1 RTL winner) have all won at this water world.

The average winning score at the 3M Open is 19 under par. Only one winner under +3500, we are going to take some chances on this odds board. Outside of the skills needed to win, there are just three tournaments left before the playoffs. That cutoff is the top 70 and ties. For as many times as you may have seen Andrew Putnam, Ricky Castillo, and Mac Meissner's name this year, they are all sitting on the top 70 bubble. Who else is outside the top 70, how about this list?

• Johnny Keefer (71), Jason Day (72), Brian Harman (74), Jackson Suber (79), Tony Finau (83), Michael Brennan (105), Emiliano Grillo (109)

The list goes on and on. As we approach 2028 and the new world order, every player needs to compete with a sense of urgency to ensure they accumulate as many points as possible in 2027. Take a trending player like Jackson Suber. Three top 10s in his last seven starts, a solid week at The Open, and now Suber can really make a move. Ride the hot hand through the St. Jude, and Jackson could find himself with a Signature card. The next three weeks are a huge opportunity. Make the playoffs, and anything can happen. As we handicap the 3M, Rocket, and Wyndham, we need to keep this in mind. There's an abundance of pressure here aside from winning a golf tournament. Three very good scoring venues, and players under this level of career pressure are going to be fun to watch. Major season may be over, but don't switch the channel quite yet. The middle-tier golf is about to get really good.

Read The Line media ⤵️

How to win?

I enjoy life's little ironies. 3M is a massive company who helps keep us safe. As the lead sponsor for a PGA TOUR event where all the players do is find trouble, I find that slightly funny. Players who can keep their ball safe at TPC Twin Cities contend. Very few regular TOUR events place as much emphasis on T2G as does the 3M. It starts off the tee, but overall all three ball striking categories count. When it comes to major championships, I often weigh SG: T2G significantly. But the 3M? More than 50% of the shots these guys face will be challenged by some form of penalty area. Similar to TPC Sawgrass and PGA National, the best ball strikers will excel purely due to a lack of penalty strokes. With an average winning score around 20 under par and an average cutline after seven editions of 1 under par, that differential really describes the need for T2G quality.

The historical tournament data rates scoring average as the second most correlated statistic behind SG: Total. That sounds obvious, but it's not always the case. Many weeks it is the putter or approach play. With scoring so strongly connected to contending, where do we see the most of it? The seven winners of the 3M Open have gained an average of nine strokes on the par 4s. The three par 5s have a 43% birdie rate. If you birdie them all, you're still only 12 under par on Sunday. Since none of the par 3s have a birdie rate over 20%, if you plan to reach 20 under par, then you'd better play the par 4s well. Tony Finau gained 13 strokes on the par 4s the year he won (2022). Five of the seven winners gained more than nine strokes on the field playing the 4s. BoB% is important at the 3M, but so is bogey avoidance. More so than other weeks, watch the birdie to bogey ratio when charting this field. A simple miss most weeks results in a par saving chance or at worst bogey. This week it's a double!

Don't forget, we have five par 4s under 425 yards. 3M officials have been known to set some of them up to be reachable by a majority of the field. Wedge play will determine your chances in keeping up with the leaders. More than 35% of the iron shots fall in the under 150 yard scoring range. The par 3s require a couple of mid-irons, and the second shots on par 5s are important moments to separate, but similar to (even) Royal Birkdale, players must create a bunch of birdie chances with their irons. If you are hitting fairways at TPC Twin Cities, it is a huge advantage. Attacking from the short grass makes the approaches that much easier. Five of the seven winners gained more than seven strokes on the field with their iron play. The field over seven years has hit 71% of their GIRs. That's 5% better than the weekly PGA TOUR average. Hitting fairways is important when it comes to your score at TPC Twin Cities; hitting GIRs is important when it comes to scoring!

Making 20+ sub-par scores requires a hot putter. Going back to the correlated stats listing, putts inside 10', SG: Putt, putting 10-20', etc. are all near the top of the list. With a wedge or scoring iron in hand most of the day, guys will have opportunities. The greens are Bentgrass and in beautiful shape. If you played at The Open, these surfaces are going to seem like glass. Scottie Scheffler was the best ball striker at Royal Birkdale by a bunch, and the putter did not work. Scheffler's ranked 14th on the PGA TOUR this season in strokes gained putting. Coming back to traditional Bentgrass greens will be a welcome sight. Six of the seven winners have made over 300 feet of putts en route to winning: Vegas (308'), Hodges (353'), Finau (306'), Champ (364'), and Thompson (340'). Our defending champion made 411' of putts last year!! That's a significant trend and one I would factor in. Past TPCTC positive experience weighs in for having the ability to convert that many birdie chances. To put it in perspective, when Scottie won at the CJ Cup in 2025 (at TPC Craig Ranch) at 31 under par, he made 321' of putts. What's most interesting about the putting at TPCTC are the guys doing it. Finau, Champ, Vegas, Kitayama (!), are all below-average putters. When you see bonus putting like we witness every year at the 3M, we know it becomes a case of finding the correct trend.

The 3M winners pop for a week and then go back into the lower middle tier of PGA TOUR life. Look at the list! The average winner's pre-tournament outright odds are +9400. Scottie Scheffler is in the field. The only player inside the top 30 in the OWGR. Based upon Scottie's ball striking at Birkdale, I am betting outrights without Scheffler in the field. TPC Twin Cities is not as interesting as links golf. It doesn't compare to Shinnecock Hills or Aronimink. Take the Twin Cities for what it is and enjoy the highs and lows of double bogey adventures. Keep those outrights on dry land and by Sunday you surely will be in the hunt.

Outright Winners - 3M Open

LPGA

Ryu for two!

For the second year in a row, we lost the Evian Championship in a playoff. This time it was two-time major champion Haeran Ryu who defeated Brooke Henderson on the first sudden-death hole. RTL readers will know, Ryu is a favorite of ours going back to her first win at the Walmart in 2023. We predicted that outright (+2500) and have published several cards since featuring Ryu. The putter has always been what has held her back. One of the top three ball strikers on tour, if the positive vibes on the greens continue, Haeran has the ability to challenge Jeeno and Nelly for LPGA supremacy. From one winner to another, we head to Ayrshire, Scotland, and the Dundonald Links for the ISPS HANDA Women's Scottish Open. Lottie Woad is the defending champion at 21 under par. We cashed with Woad (+1800) last year, predicting her first career win!
​
On a side note, I love predicting a player's first win. Those two in the opening paragraph emphasize our edge. Grabbing a player against a regular field in the moment is awesome. Woad opened strong at the Evian with a 67-64. A slightly over par weekend, and she dropped to a T16 finish. That could be a good thing for bettors and her defending odds. A great fit for this golf course, she and 29 of the top 50 in the Rolex World Rankings will be looking to secure the LPGA's next title. Similar to the men's Scottish Open, this event runs in conjunction with the LET. Peruse the entry list, and you will see some new names. With a portion of this field from the secondary tour, our chances of winning again are very good. I choose to think of Henderson's runner-up as good momentum. We won in Scotland two weeks ago with Tom Kim; it's time to do it again.

Pitch and putt

For the fifth year in a row and sixth overall, Dundonald Links will host the world's best women for the Scottish Open. Set against the Firth of Clyde, it has a familiar neighbor in Royal Troon. Irvine Bay can get a little crazy this time of year, let's hope the women are prepared with plenty of rain gear. The opposite of what the men faced at Royal Birkdale, we will see some green across these links. One of the shorter courses on the LPGA schedule, the women face a par 72 scorecard measuring 6,538 yards. I realize 6,500 yards doesn't sound short like the ShopRite, but with an average par 4 of 386 yards and eight of the 10 par 4s under 400 yards in length, you are going to need birdies. Since coming back to Dundonald for the past four years, the average winning score is 18 under par. Ayaka Furue (2022) and Lottie Woad (2025) both won at 21 under par. Looking ahead to the forecast, I foresee a winning score right around the 18 under par average.

A little deeper into the routing, Dundonald Links sits on a very small piece of seaside land. The routing works wonderfully as all 18 holes seem to sit on top of one another. With 79 bunkers and several sharp doglegs, players with great control off the tee have an advantage. With so many 4s under 400 yards, it makes sense to see 13 of the 18 approach shots come in from under 150 yards. Let's face it, even the par 5s here are very scorable. That's kind of the key here: take advantage of the conditions when you can off the tee, and then knock your wedges close. We can look at a bunch of leaderboards to determine the skill set needed to contend. The LET competed at Dundonian in 2015 and 2016. Then the LPGA in 2017, and then returned for 2022 to the present. Woad's three-shot win over Hyo Joo Kim was impressive. Lottie is the only player who scored all four rounds in the 60s. There are few ways to score from looking at those historic leaderboards. Let's take a deeper look and find another links winner.

How to win?

The last four winners at Dundonald Links tell us a ton about what it takes to win. Ayaka Furue (2022), Celine Boutier (2023), Lauren Coughlin (2024), and Lottie Woad (2025) are all accurate players. Dundonald has 45 fairway bunkers. You cannot contend and continually hit them. Furue and Coughlin especially are among the LPGA leaders in fairways hit. What is even more telling is their length. Lauren and Ayaka are both not long hitters. The recent top 10s at the Scottish Open do not place an emphasis on length. Keep it in play and you'll be just fine. These four women averaged hitting 80% of their fairways in the year that they won. Furue came into Dundonald playing well, Boutier won the week before at the Evian, and Coughlin won in Canada a couple of weeks prior. Woad, well she finished T3 at the Evian before her win last year. They all were able to use their form and get off to a hot start. Catching up in the Scottish weather can be difficult, we want a hot starter.
​
Drive for show and putt for dough applies at Dundonald. The average winning score of the co-sanctioned championship is 18 under par. The four champions have averaged 23 sub-par scores. We can start with the best birdie makers, but what it comes down to on this Ayrshire coastline is the putter. The last four winners have gained an average of 11 strokes on the field. Contenders and champions can separate here from the field significantly with their flatstick. The last four top 10s have gained an average of five strokes on the field putting. Much like the Evian Resort's Champions Course, the greens at Dundonald give you small targets. These scoring surfaces look bigger, but between the wind and all of the waves (contours), they play much smaller. Our past champions have hit an incredible average of 82% of their GIRs. That level of accuracy puts a ton of pressure on the putter. Those who handle the greens gain on the field considerably.
​
Hitting eight of every 10 GIRs is significant. The winners and those top 10s were proficient on approach. Links golf is not just about hitting the green(s), but also controlling your spin and trajectory to achieve proper proximity. This place looks similar to the surface of the moon. To contend, you must knock it close. The competitors who create the most birdie chances inside 20 feet and convert have the biggest edge. I know that sounds obvious, but that's the simple blueprint for the Scottish Open. Not just the winners, but the recent contenders at Dundonald hit 78% of their GIRs (on average). It takes a well-rounded iron game to accumulate GIRs at Dundonald. The variety of shots is evenly spread from 75 to 175 yards. I expect the weather to keep the green surfaces soft. Hitting a massive number of GIRs will be key if you plan to keep up with the contenders.
​
Ayaka Furue shot 21 under par the year she won, averaging 208 yards off the tee! This place can play that short. Furue also averaged 3.67 on the 4s and won by three strokes. It's been established that the par 4s are short. Our four recent winners averaged less than 3.8 strokes on the 4s. The leaders destroyed the par 5s too, but the 4s are key. Lottie was 10 under par on the par 4s last year with a 3.75 scoring average. The field can find trouble here. The average 36-hole cut over the last four years is 2 over par. Get the ball going sideways, and you'll find plenty of trouble. If the conditions get crazy, the par 5s are one place you will be able to reliably score. The two par 5s on the front nine play into the prevailing wind, and the two on the back downwind. Scoring will take some serious wedge work. I like players who can scramble. Our past champions have displayed this skill. Not just to save par, but even more so to attack the short holes from awkward approach lengths. The last four top 10s averaged a +60% successful scrambling rate. Short game skills always help in questionable weather, so picking the players who can get creative in these conditions from close range is a bonus.
​
Thankfully, Dundonald was designed for Scottish summer (lol) weather. There are eight alternative tee boxes the LPGA uses to create a ton of variety or protect the field from the elements. Going back to recent form, the more change these ladies face, the more it favors the hot players. Finding the women firing on all cylinders won't be tough coming off back-to-back major championships. Combine those leaderboards with the characteristics we covet, and here's the outright card for Scotland!

Outright Winners - Women's Scottish Open

RTL Weekly Editorials 📰

Do you want to be a better bettor?

Become a member of Read The Line today!

​​​​​

Think you have a gambling problem? Reach out for help. Read The line promotes responsible gaming. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit these online resources:

​The National Council on Problem Gambling​

​Council on Compulsive Gaming - New Jersey​