FedEx Fall begins

Considering his start to 2025, Scottie Scheffler did not come to Napa, California, to play with wine glasses. Scheffler and nine more of his Ryder Cup teammates are competing as prep for the 45th Ryder Cup match at the end of the month. It's a nice boost to the Procore Championship, but if you asked the rest of the 144-man field, they would have been happy to take on Silverado Resort's North Course without the world's number one and his cup competitors. In a related story, Captain Luke Donald's European side has 11 players (of 12) teeing it up across the Atlantic in the DP World Tour's flagship event, the BMW Championship. Sepp Straka is the only European Ryder Cup team member not in the field.

The FedEx Cup Fall Series is now down to seven events. As autumn unfolds, there are two important points races to keep an eye on. The first is signature-related. The top 50 on the FedEx Cup regular season are locked in, but players who finish on the FedEx points list between 51 and 60 are given access to the first two "full-field" signature events (AT&T, Genesis). We've witnessed how important playing in those events can be, and with many of the TOUR's elite at home in October and November, these 10 coveted spots are really up for grabs. The second is getting inside the top 100. For decades, the top 125 earned their tour card for the upcoming season. That's no longer the case. One can debate the difference between the two cutoffs, but for this fall setup, let's just list the facts. Finish 101, and you'd better start looking at the Korn Ferry Tour calendar.

Vintage venue

The PGA TOUR's trip to Napa has held several spots (and sponsors) on the season-long schedule. Fixed for some time, players have been traveling to wine country in mid-September to start the fall run. The Silverado Resort has 36 holes of golf, and the TOUR uses its North Course for the Procore. A par 72 scorecard that measures 7,138 yards is far from a difficult test for these 144 players. The North Course is the shortest par 72 track on TOUR. Tournament officials have added 15 yards to the par 5 fifteenth hole, and changed the routing significantly in 2023, but the average winning score is still 19 under par over the last five editions. Add a couple of Ryder Cup team members, and that total is likely to go even lower. Vegas has the final score over/under at 21.5 under par. Recent champions have held some pretty serious long odds. Seven of the last 10 winners have started the week at +5000 (50-1) or longer on the betting board. I realize none of those editions hosted Scottie and friends, but don't be surprised if the middle tier is motivated with limited starts available before the two big cutoffs happen in mid-November.

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Keith's Keys 🗞️ A couple of key skills you can claim as your own at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. You can find complete explanations for each in the betting breakdown. Wedge wizard: Nearly 50% of approach plays happen from 150 yards and in. Great wedge players have always been able to separate at Silverado. Back 9 birdies: The back nine has three par 5s, two par 4s under 375 yards and a much lower scoring average than the front nine. Procore putter: The last five winners have each gained at least four strokes on the field with their flatstick.

A simple reason why the PGA TOUR comes to wine country in September is the weather! The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 80s and 10-12 mph of wind out of the southwest. There's no rain in the region, and the turf conditions are perfect for growing grass, wine, etc. Keeping the North Course firm and fast is probably the only headwind these guys will face all week. Patton Kizzire won by five strokes over David Lipsky in 2024 because he gained eight strokes T2G and another eight plus with the putter. While most past champions go deep on the medium-length par 4s and 5s, Kizzire kept his scoring even across each par category. Silverado has 22 acres of fairway, which is tight, and 53 bunkers, but the average length of the par 4s is 410 yards! Three weeks ago at East Lake, the average par 4 length was 452 yards!

Procore Championship starts in...

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The winners average 24 sub-par scores because they attack each hole with a scoring iron in hand. Get the approach radar going, fire up the flatstick, and you can contend. An average green size of 5,400 sq/ft doesn't scare these guys when they are hitting a gap wedge. Fifty percent of the approach shots are taken from 150 yards and closer. Pundits will push the narrow fairways narrative, but the truth is that only six guys on the final leaderboard in the top 20 were inside the top 10 for driving accuracy. Go low or go home will be said many times over the next seven PGA TOUR events. The top 65 and ties will play the weekend. The average cutline over the last five years is 2.4 under par. With the predicted conditions, I would get south of three or four under if you plan to play Saturday and Sunday for the $6 million purse.

Yes, the FedEx Cup playoffs paydays are over as our winner receives $1.1 million. As a sign of the times, the winner no longer receives an invitation to the Masters. I won't speculate what that means for the future, but with the entire focus of the TOUR on the FedEx Cup regular season, I think Rolapp's rollout will include substantial changes to the fall schedule. Who better to understand the impact of the NFL on the TOUR's fall finances than the man who built their media empire. I enjoy this course for a couple of reasons. New and veteran stars have used this venue to elevate their careers. The tree-lined fairways keep the annual round-by-round scoring average a little under one stroke under par. Players will make bogeys, and that creates an exciting finish year after year. Talking to the media on-site, there's a bunch of attention on these Ryder Cup boys. With that Bethpage microscope firmly affixed, don't be surprised if we get another one of those middle-tier guys across the finish line first again.

Build up to Bethpage

I love this venue as a Bethpage Black warmup. Very few PGA TOUR venues present any challenge when the average winning score is 20 under par. As the guys get ready for the Ryder Cup, there are a couple of skills our team needs to sharpen if they plan to overpower the European side as they did in Wisconsin at Whistling Straits. Those same skills will also keep you in contention come Sunday in Napa. Imagine the rhetoric reversal surrounding the US side if a team member won this week, versus the narrative that played out in Rome. Here comes the famous phrase, "on paper," this is a prime preview course for a Team USA player. Not convinced, follow me through this thought process, and you'll begin to see for yourself how Bethpage is going to be set up in two weeks.

There will be a premium on hitting the fairway at Bethpage. The US side is more accurate off the tee. There's also a premium on hitting fairways at Silverado. The field hit 47% of its fairways last year. Granted, the North Course is not long, but a week full of tough tee shots is a great training ground. Can you win without leading the field in strokes gained off the tee? 100%. A straightforward path to winning involves accuracy and length off the tee. Research of the career North Course strokes gained leaders depicts an edge to solid ball strikers. Strokes gained ball striking is the combination of driver and approach acumen. The fairways at Silverado move from side to side. The player who can control the tee ball in both directions gains an edge. The landing areas at Bethpage bend as well. I'm looking at well-rounded drivers this week. Guys who can fit the ball into the fairway in all types of situations.

The second ball striking skill is approach play. We know the North Course is a wedge fest. I've seen the scorecard for Bethpage, and the official yardage is 107 yards shorter than it was for the 2019 PGA Championship. We got killed in Rome because Luke Donald and Edoardo Molinari took away one of our superpowers. The United States players will kill you with their wedge accuracy. Do you remember us hitting any great wedge shots in 2023 at Marco Simone? No. The reason was the course setup. Silverado is a great wedge exam. The North Course will test all of your short irons and scoring clubs. Patton Kizzire is a proven wedge player. The winner this week will have their radar fixed from 150 yards and in. Considering the average PGA TOUR player hits their pitching wedge about 140-150 yards, we are going to see a bunch of close approaches. Our card is going to be filled with wedge wizards we know are in great current form.

In 2023, the PGA TOUR significantly changed the routing on the North course. Eleven holes were changed, and the result is a much more interesting back nine. On the closing seven holes, players now see three par 5s, two par 4s under 375 yards, and a 180-yard par 3 over water. If you like birdie streaks, and what DFS degen doesn't, then here is your place to string sub-par scores together. At this point in the season, we know who thrives on the final 9 scoring average leaderboards. Not only am I considering BoB%, etc., when it comes to scoring, but I also love the edge back nine potential gives us for the whole card. Last year, the North Course had a scoring average per round of 0.75 under par. The back nine scoring average for the week was 0.74 under par. My PGA eyes are always looking for playability edges, and this one will result in a nice net Napa return.

Back to the Bethpage theme, let's focus on putting. The Americans never make the big putts under pressure, and the Europeans do. Heard that before?!?!?! If you plan to win the Procore, you'd better warm up that flatstick. Each of the last five winners has gained over four strokes on the field with their flatstick. Those 5,400 sq/ft greens are covered in a Poa Annua - Bentgrass mix. Bethpage will list a similar blend on its GCSAA information sheet. This blend is some of the best grass you can putt on. Superintendents can cut that blade to any height under great growing conditions. The best time of year for golf course maintenance in Napa and Long Island is now! The best prep for The Cup is having to make putts under pressure on this surface. Will all 10 Ryder Cuppers make the cut? That would be great, but to do so, they will have to make meaningful putts on Friday. Contend, and the pressure ramps up again on Sunday. The greens will be perfect this week out west, and much like featuring the best wedge players, my second most important tool is converting birdie opportunities on these specific greens.

The North Course values around the green play more than almost any birdie fest. Contenders over the past few years have gained more strokes with their short game than they have with their OTT play. That's a bit skewed due to the tight fairways, but the simple fact is that with so many short holes, guys increase their win equity with timely scrambling shots. Four par 5s, nine par 4s under 440, and your around the green game matters. When it comes to par scoring, I'm taking a balanced approach. Here's the strokes gained ranges:

• Par 3: 175-200 yards
• Par 4: 400-450 yards
• Par 5: 550-600 yards

Recent winners have gained against the field across the board. Another reason why the North Course is an entertaining venue. Our winner will have to use each of these featured skills for four days. Based upon that breakdown, you can start to see how if Keegan picked the proper United States players, they will shine in this setting. It's easy to say Scottie will be there on Sunday, but he won't be the only one. I'm going after a couple of the Bethpage boys and FedEx Cup fall featured players. Enjoy the Procore, and the usual entertainment a late Sunday in Napa produces. By the time you read this and the LPGA newsletter, I'll be back in the Bethpage lab. We are going to hammer the Ryder Cup with winning content. I cannot wait to see the guys go deep this week and get ready for the Battle on the Black!

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Outright Winners - Procore Championship

Ben Griffin got a huge boost from Captain Keegan Bradley. An invite to Bethpage, and I believe Griffin’s confidence will increase in Napa. Four top 12 finishes in his last four events won’t hurt either. The Carolina Kid is great with a wedge and his putter. Ben can avoid bogeys and seemingly score at will. While many of the Cup competitors will be looking ahead, Griffin might grab one more trophy in 2025! Ben Griffin +2800 (BR)

Peaking in the fall once again, Patrick Fishburn is poised to improve on his third-place finish at the Procore a year ago. Fishburn’s strength is the putter and his approach play. The driver can go a little wayward, but with his length, Patrick can scale back and hit more fairways than shorter players off the tee at the North Course. He used this formula in 2024, and his recent form proves he can do it again. Fishburn has two top 8 results in his last four starts. Patrick Fishburn +10000 (DK)

Who's next..?

Twenty-four events have been completed on the schedule, and we have 24 different winners! Jeeno Thitikul had the lead down the stretch and let it go in an attempt to bring home win six for RTL and be the first repeat champion of this 2025 campaign. From Boston, we are onto Cincinnati. The LPGA lost a golden opportunity by choosing to skip a week on the calendar while the PGA TOUR was away from competition. A baffling decision at best, the Kroger Queen City Championship presented by P&G will be contested in Maineville, Ohio, against the only PGA TOUR event being played in mid-September. To further compound the challenge, 10 members of the United States Ryder Cup team are competing in California. The women do have eight of their top 10 in the Rolex Rankings in the field, but my oh my, what a wasted audience window last week.

This is the fourth edition of this event. The first two were played at Kenwood Country Club. Last year, the LPGA moved the venue to TPC River's Bend. Lydia Ko went nuclear on Sunday by firing a 63 and winning by five strokes over Jeeno Thitikul. The world's number one, Thitikul, sure comes in with great form. Runner-up in Boston her last time out two weeks ago, Jeeno has 10 top 10s in 16 starts this season. We have $2 million in the purse and $300,000 for first place. Alongside the LPGA elite, we have 20 of the top 25 (Rolex Rankings) in the field of 144. The top 65 and ties will play the weekend for a chance at becoming the LPGA's twenty-fifth different winner this year!

Kroger Queen City Championship starts in...

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TPC River's Bend is located about 30 miles northeast of Cincinnati. Developed and designed by the PGA TOUR, for the second event in a row, Arnold Palmer is the golf course architect. TPCRB has hosted the LPGA and Epson Tour over the years. Your typical TPC test, the ladies who performed well outside of Boston, should be a perfect fit for this second Palmer playground. The layout runs through a rather large neighborhood. Those in the field will walk 5.2 miles for each round of 18 holes. Not only is the course spread out, but the terrain will supply a test as well. Southern Ohio can get pretty hilly, and TPCRB tilts with the topography. To compound the challenge, the forecast calls for high temperatures in the upper 80s. The week looks dry, and the course should be firm. The region has received a little rain in the last week, but it has been a dry summer in July and August.

The wind won't blow very hard, but it will change direction each day. Ten under par barely got you inside the top 20 a year ago (T19). Ko was the only player to fire four rounds in the 60s, but with these weather conditions, I expect the field to make a million birdies once again. The schedule has been a bit inconsistent, so I'm sticking to a tight card and those players who have been really good as of late. The strategy fits as Mississauga, TPC Boston, and TPC River's Bend are all pretty strong comp courses for one another. We have two events left in the continental US before the tour heads west to Hawaii and then Asia for five weeks. Two more tournaments are left on the schedule after they return from the Far East, and the season's over. The time is now for action, especially if you are not going across the Pacific. Making the cut, CME points, and winning are all part of the focus for this crew of competitors. Last year's leaderboard told a specific story. One I will share in the next section...

X marks the spot

Last year was our first experience with modern LPGA players at this venue. No offense to the previous competitors who played around River's Bend, but this current class of ball strikers is an evolution of the women's game. Precision pays at a venue like this when you can pretty much drive it anywhere. Length and accuracy will always be an advantage, but strokes gained off the tee and total driving were not the key to winning in 2024. Since a majority of the field was finding the fairway, the course basically became a par 3 contest from the short grass. In my research, I like players who have been differentiating themselves with the driver, but the truth is, most LPGA players are not errant off the tee.

The approach breakdown centers around the 125–150-yard range. The average par 4 is 389 yards, so medium-length iron shots are super important. Portland, Canada, and Boston all featured the same approach range, so we are taking the best approach players from the last month (or more). The turf conditions should also be very similar to the last couple of courses. Along those lines, TPC River's Bend has a number of elevation changes. This adds to the complexity of each approach, but we've seen what these ladies can do, as all of these courses (except Portland) had some terrain changes to tackle. Five women gained over eight shots on the field with their irons last year, and they all contended on Sunday afternoon. Keep creating scoring opportunities, and you'll be in the mix to win.

The leading scorers averaged over six sub-par scores per round. Lydia Ko averaged 5.5. Converting on the greens is important. Players can make putts at TPCRB. A good putter with a trending iron game will be our winner. When it comes to scoring, I not only pay attention to BoB%, but a player’s birdie-to-bogey ratio as well. Lydia won because she had one over par hole for the week. Consistency counts in these shootout events. Jeeno finished runner-up and had eight. A unique way to measure if a player can get to 20+ under par is how many mistakes do they make. I found the scorers making the fewest bogeys for our card. We did not see a lot of scoring on the par 3s. Go low on the 5s and get under par on those shorter par 4s, and that's your path to victory.

The top 10 did not contend by gaining strokes around the green. That makes sense since it took 20 under par to win. If you're chipping, you're losing ground. Factors like hitting GIRs from the rough and hitting greens under regulation make sense to measure instead. Proximity to the hole leads to better scoring chances. I do like solid scramblers as they tend to score on par 5s and short par 4s. TPC River's Bend has four par 4s under 375 yards. The top 10 from a year ago was filled with really good wedge players. Ladies who were on target in Ohio from close range led the way. Lydia really leaned into her iron game. She gained less than 2.5 strokes OTT and putting. Find players who can flush it from the fairway!

A few of the LPGA's best found some form over the last two tournaments. I like that trend to continue in Ohio. Not everyone goes over to Asia. I see a big push coming in the next two weeks, crossing middle America. Cincinnati and then Rogers, Arkansas, next week. You have to go low at each to win. We are going to see some exciting golf over the next two weeks by the women. A perfect primer for what's coming as the chase to the CME crown and $4 million prize heats up this fall.

Outright winners - Kroger Queen City Championship

The second-best ball striker on the LPGA is Rio Takeda. Takeda ranks runner up on tour T2G and on approach. TPCRB is an accuracy test on approach and Rio is ranked top 5 on hitting greens under regulation and GIRs from the rough. Give her a clear shot, and she's hitting the target. Rio has four straight top 25 finishes and is first on tour for scoring rounds in the 60s. Scoring, accuracy, and don't forget, she has eight career wins on the JLPGA. Rio Takeda +2200 (BM)

Ayaka Furue had a slow summer season. A return to the United States and all aspects of her game took flight at the FM Championship. Following a career year (2024) can be difficult, but with the trend I'm seeing in her play, I now expect a fantastic fall. Furue is a streaky player who can go low even with her lack of length OTT. The accuracy in her iron game is truly elite, and that's how she does it. Ayaka ranks in the top 10 for rounds in the 60s and top 8 for par 4 scoring. Two traits that I am focused on at the Kroger. Ayaka Furue +5000 (FD)

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