Cognizant of... 🤔
Cognizant's "why"PALM BEACH GRADENS, FL For the fifteenth time in 13 months, we finished second in a PGA TOUR event. Rory McIlroy's late charge was the fourth runner-up in the last five events! And with every close call, I become more and more focused on winning. Trust me, I don't need the USA Hockey team(s) to win a gold medal to get me motivated. RTL is more driven than ever, and our ability to contend week after week is proof. A big win is coming, and the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches is a massive opportunity to secure one. I can't stand all of the crying about the field. We have 123 players competing for $9.2 million. The purse in Thailand last week for the LPGA was $1.8 million. First place in Palm Beach Gardens this week will earn $1.73 million! A true full-field cut is back, and the lowest-ranked OWGR player is Ryan Gerard (26). With only 27 guys in the top 100, this event has a built-in story. Golf media will repetitively tell you this event is trending downward, but I see it in a completely different way. Bettors love events like this. We hate Scottie weeks with no cut. That takes ALL of the fun out of it. Instead of talking about who is not here, let's embrace the event for what it truly is, an unbelievable, outright opportunity. Since the signature events started in 2023, a +3000, +10000, and +10000 winners have taken home the trophy. Who cares if it was a lefty named Joe Highsmith? The 2025 Cognizant Classic had an incredible ending, and if you picked Highsmith, you'll never forget it. You know how many people still bet on Keith Mitchell every single week for what he did in 2019?! Mitchell was +30000 to win the Honda that week, 300-1. A "forever bond" to an event everyone believes is on life-support. Stop the negative narratives and promote The Cog for why we all love it: water hazards, wind, and wild card winners! Cognizant Classic starts in...Not my National...The Champion Course has been trending in the "scoring" direction. For years, the wind, water, and firm Bermudagrass greens befuddled the fields. Even with the best golfers in the world playing, the winning score was usually around nine or 10 under par. A large part of the challenge came from all of the tight, winter Bermudagrass around the greens and covering the fairways. From 2007 to 2014, the Champ was overseeded for the tournament. In 2015, they stopped. The average winning score for those eight years was nine under par. In 2025, officials went back to an overseeding, and the scoring average (per round) jumped from 0.9 under par to 1.7 under par. Jake Knapp shot 59, and all was lost. I have walked the golf course, and it does show some teeth. The rough is noticeably longer than last year, and the turf is playing much firmer. It has been a cold winter in Florida. Many of the proper play areas look thin. Tight lies are going to be one of the tests this week on the Champ. A couple of changes have been made to the scorecard. Twenty yards have been added to the second hole, and 30 yards to number 18. The total par 71 yardage the field will be playing is now 7,223 yards. PGA National was the seventh shortest course on TOUR last year. Players still face 15 holes with water in play and 60 bunkers. It looks like the fairways have been squeezed a bit, and the landing areas a bit tighter. Is the Champ going back to a brutal test? I don't believe so, but it does look very much like changes were made to increase difficulty for these modern ball strikers. The cutline was five under par last year. Based upon the setup, it will still be under par, but closer to two or three under and not five. The Champ Course has the seventh-largest greens on the PGA TOUR and a very high double-bogey rate. Keep it out of the agua and follow our outright blueprint below if you want a chance to win come Sunday. Read The Line media ⤵️How to win?Players are working on a couple of very specific skills on the practice range at PGA National. To streamline this summary, I'm going to start at the green and work my way backward to the tee box. The forecast and firm conditions are going to pose some problems. Afternoons will be challenging. I mention these two observations because that is the lens you should be looking through to predict the winner. There's more rough to contend with off the tee than last year. This is going to be a common theme, but due to the cold Florida winter, some areas are far denser than others. You are going to see some breaks when balls miss the short grass. Fifty yards has been added to the scorecard, but I do not believe that will drastically change the driver frequency. A majority of players were already using driver on two and 18. Another theme I am focused on is trajectory. Leaders will have to contend with the wind. Players who can flight the ball lower not only make sense, but they are also the ones you see populate the PGA National leaderboards historically. If you control the height and have ball speed, you are the correct driver for the 2026 Cognizant. The Champ Course is an awesome approach test. Iron play will be the most impactful strokes play stat. Over the last 10 years, winners have gained an average of six strokes on the field attacking these greens. Many contenders have positioned themselves to win with their proximity from 125 to 175 yards. The best current approach players are all I am interested in. Guys who can survive these treacherous par 3 tee shots and then throw darts everywhere else. Unless you are on-site, you would never know how important around the green acumen is this week. Is it more important than Approach or putting? No. If you are deciding between two similar players and are looking for a tiebreaker, go with short game over the driver. Is it tougher off the tee in 2026 versus 2025? Yes. But around these green complexes are a bunch of closely mown areas that are super sparse. Have you ever chipped off thin, firm Bermudagrass? It's not fun. Similar to the thinness we saw in Phoenix, guys are going to get really difficult lies for basic short game shots. I'm raising the weight on this edition of the cognizant. PGA National has never struck me as a difficult bunker course. Certainly, nowhere near the level of sand examination that Riviera is. That sentiment of mine still holds. The greens are firm. How firm they remain on the weekend has much to do with the forecast. We are going to get some rain. If the predicted amount is correct, we will see some bounce on these surfaces through Sunday. Several players have commented on how solid they feel already. Bermudagrass putters do have an edge, but so do the Florida guys. Vegas set the over/under on the winning score at -16.5 under par. Players will be making some putts. Keep in mind, the last five winners have averaged 21 sub-par scores over four rounds. Guys will also need to make plenty of par savers. Four of the last five winners have gained +3.7 strokes or more on the field with their flatstick. All the Florida putters are going to pop back up on the PGA TOUR leaderboard. The West Coast Poa is gone. Certain players have been waiting very patiently for this moment. Our outright card is all proven Florida men I'm leaning more on those two skill sets than horses for courses. A stereotypical Florida player is going to win. For PGA National, they will also be very solid on the par 3s and possess a high level of bogey avoidance. I want them to be a low-trajectory player and take advantage of the 11 par 4s. Their recent form on approach is key, and they must be a player who likes to gameplan. PGA National is a positional-style test. Keep it out of the water and wind, and you will find yourself in the winner's circle. Outright Winners - Cognizant ClassicLPGAHere comes the rain againGrab your rainsuit ladies, it's time again for the HSBC Women's World Championship in Sentosa, Singapore. The second stage of the spring Asia tour on the LPGA schedule takes us to the southern tip of Malaysia. A quick two-hour flight due south from Thailand and you'll arrive in Singapore. Upon arrival, the women will be greeted with some serious precipitation in the forecast. The eighteenth edition of the event takes place at the same host venue we have seen since 2007; Sentosa Golf Club. Sentosa GC is a 36-hole facility, and the women compete on the Tanjong Course. Probably a little more famous now that LIV Golf visits the venue annually, the ladies have been competing here for 17 years. The most recent HSBC leaderboards are a who's who of the last five years on tour. Lydia Ko is our defending champion, and all five winners are major champions. The premier event of this trip to the Far East, the purse is $3 million, and first place receives a check for $450,000. One of the richest non-major purses on the LPGA schedule. As such, 21 of the top 25 players in the Rolex World Rankings are competing. Only Nelly Korda, Mao Saigo, Nasa Nataoka, Maja Stark, and Grace Kim are not in the field. It's disappointing that we never get to see Korda play in the spring or fall Asian events. One of the largest television markets for women's golf, it would be great to have America's most talented player compete across the Pacific. Speaking of their location, golf starts tonight (Wednesday), so don't forget to place those wagers before the women tee off around the world. Long LIV golfThe average winning score across 17 years of competing on the Tanjong Course is 15 under par. This is going to be quite different than last week's shootout-style scoring. The winning score in 2025 and 2024 was 13 under par. The golf course looks like a birdie fest on paper at 6,212 yards. Eight of the 10 par 4s measure under 400 yards. Much like the men are facing in Palm Beach Gardens, this is truly target golf in horrible conditions. More on the weather below, finding the fairway and attacking these green complexes is the key to contending. Twelve holes have water in play, including holes 15 through 18. Zoysia fairways are surrounded by 54 bunkers and rough. Sentosa GC is a wonderful setting. The routing turns you around in all four directions with engaging views of downtown Singapore. The par 3s are a stout test at an average of 185 yards, and three of them have a penalty area in play. The course has massive Bermudagrass greens measuring over 10,000 sq/ft on average. Four of the 15 past champions are competing this week. The field has 72 players, and all are guaranteed four rounds if they can stand the weather. Much like last week, once you get past the elite players, it becomes a very weak field. Six sponsor exemptions, as well as players with ties to Singapore, fill the bottom half of the field. Fresh off her win in her home country, Jeeno Thitikul is poised to go on a serious run. Tee to green mavens make the most of this venue. The average score tells you a majority of what you need to know. Seventeen players finished 15 under par or better last week. Fifteen under may be the winning score at Sentosa. How much will the wet weather affect play? Most of the rain will be the "go out and play" variety, hence the rainsuit. One very important feature about the Tanjong Course is the turf profile. Modeled after the sand belt courses of Australia, the soil structure drains very well. Throw this kind of seasonal rain in the northeast United States, and every swale would be a bathtub. How to win?"Asia's Major" is the tag name for the HSBC. When you have an average winning score in the mid-teens, we are all thinking ball striking talent and bogey avoidance. Looking through the recent leaderboards, major style ball speed (oddly enough) has played a smaller role than putting and approach. In fact, the approach play impact is about 2.5 times more than off the tee. With another year of wet conditions, radar-like irons will ultimately be the most influential skill toward winning. A majority of the approach shots fall between 125 and 175 yards. The longer mid-iron shots come on a couple par 4s, and the par 3s. Scoring on both of those par sets is key and has proven to help you contend across the recent top 10s. Players who can survive these 3s have a definite advantage. All four of the 3s rest inside the top 10 toughest holes on the course relative to par. These greens are huge. If you are watching the coverage overnight, you will definitely notice the difference between a normal-sized green and these pronounced putting surfaces. As such, I combined approach proximity to strokes gained approach. Since we are in the third event of the year, I looked at the best proximity players from 2025 as well. A large diet of 50+ foot putts on grainy Bermudagrass in the rain and humidity is NOT a recipe for success. Contenders will need to control their mid-irons and attack with close proximity to the hole. You can tell it is early in the season because outside of Jeeno, the books do not know who is playing well. We have 14 players listed with odds of +2500 or better to win, not including the world's number one. Going through the recent top 10s, we know the approach numbers really pop, but so does the Bermudagrass putting. We changed countries, but we have not changed the putting surface agronomy. Players who led with the flatstick are primed for another positive week against the field. In fact, I would favor good Bermudagrass putters more in Singapore than Thailand. The greens are much bigger and, with the wet weather, will be slower and grainier. Approach (lag) putting and converting inside 10' are essential. Many of these shorter putts will be needed to save pars. The Australian sand-belt courses feature very tight lies around the green and favor great short game players. I believe that’s why you see so many major champions win this event. Winning a major title always takes a healthy balance of birdie scoring and par saving. Birdie or better percentage, birdie to bogy ratio, scrambling, and strokes gained around the green are the secret sauce in Singapore. Most pundits point out just approach play at Sentosa Golf Club, and they don’t see how vital a savvy short game can be. Hannah Green and Lydia Ko are the last two champions. Green is from Australia, and Ko is from New Zealand. Picking a winner is extremely difficult, but a majority of the time it makes "sense" on Monday. Bogey avoidance is an essential skill at Sentosa, and our winner will have it. There aren't many weeks when I receive a ton of messages about betting on women's golf. Jeeno Thitikul is a massive favorite in this field. Her pre-tournament outright odds make her un-bettable at the start, but as you saw on our card last week, she is a great parlay option. I don't promote parlays often, but combining another bet with a Thitikul win or top 5 is a decent play. She's the best player in the field by far and is guaranteed four rounds. To compound her edge, tournament officials have invited six tournament sponsors. That makes a small field even smaller. The form is there, so if you want to have some fun, I recommend using Jeeno's advantage to create one of your own. Outright Winners - HSBC Women's World ChampionshipRTL Weekly Editorials 📰Do you want to be a better bettor?Become a member of Read The Line today!
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