Sunday beer

While the PGA Tour was off, we turned the Solheim Cup into a couple of positive units. The closest team match of them all, the week in the Netherlands did not disappoint. Day 1 and Day 2 were played even with teams earning four points each day. Team USA lit up the social media channels by celebrating with beers on Saturday night after Jennifer Kupcho's amazing comeback. Kupcho closed the final two holes in Saturday's last Fourball match by converting over 100' of putts. It really is a highlight worth watching. As we have learned many times in the past, don't give the Euros any bulletin material. The Sunday H2H lineups were evenly matched, after all the first two days were tied (8-8). Veterans Charley Hull and Carlota Ciganda secured one point each and the four European rookies won three more! The home team took the singles (7-5) and won the Cup. It's tough to pick the European side as an American, but we like winning, and I am happy to say that RTL did.
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For the first time in 84 years, the PGA Tour returns to the western North Carolina mountains. The Biltmore Championship Asheville is a brand-new tournament and the first of the 2026 FedEx Cup Fall Series. Seven more tournaments will follow this inaugural event along with the Presidents Cup in Chicago. The Cliffs at Walnut Cove, designed by Jack Nicklaus in 2005, is the venue. Set atop the Appalachians, the field of 132 players will be competing at 2,300 feet above sea level. The top 65 and ties play the weekend for a modest PGA Tour purse of $5 million and a first-place check for $900,000. More valuable than both of those amounts are the precious FedEx Cup points these guys are vying for. The top 50 are set for 2027. Those Signature players know their schedule and can take as much of the fall off as they wish. Above 50, they are competing for two important cuts. The first 10 players (51-60) following the fall series earn a spot in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the Genesis Invitational. Both Signature events, these premium purses reward extra FEC points as well. Those precious points are the key to qualifying for the PGA Tour's Championship Series in 2028. The next cutoff is the top 100. Those men earn their PGA Tour card for 2027.

Biltmore Championship starts in...

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Walnut Cove

The Cliffs at Walnut Cove is a beautiful outdoor setting nestled among the western North Carolina mountains. Approximately two hours west of Charlotte, the course scorecard reads par 71 and covers 7,249 yards. Those familiar with the course will notice quickly that the PGA Tour has flipped the nines for the tournament. The front nine will be the back nine, and the back nine will serve as the first nine holes. Since the course is atop the mountains, there are a number of unique elevation changes. Players will climb over 500' as they walk 18 holes. Nicklaus loves shallow greens or deep targets with several shelves. Jack loves great iron play, and our winner in Asheville will be a proximity maven. As the name implies a picturesque setting, nine holes have water in play due to a winding creek. I love a new venue to handicap. While many in the betting industry prefer years of course history, the challenge of winning at a brand-new layout is far more rewarding. Breaking down golf courses, determining playability, and filtering the field is fun. Granted, we do this for the final three majors most years, but rarely for a regular event. Let's dive in deeper starting with the course conditions.

Tournament organizers hosted their media day a little over a month ago. I spoke to a couple of media members who attended (and played) that day. At the time, the course was probably too wet to even play. The Asheville region received 9.5" of rain in July and another 5.6" in August. Good news, the wet weather has stopped. Only traces of rain have been recorded in September. That should be enough time to dry out several layers of turf. How much will the Tour water? If they keep it soft, I expect the winning score to reach 20 under par. If they allow the landscape to dry out, we could see a mid-teens winner. At 2000+ feet above sea level, the course is going to play around 7,000 yards. Couple that with four par 5s on a scorecard that short, and these guys will go! I realize there are five par 3s, and that reduces the length some, but the longest par 4 will play to 475 yards at this height.
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Predicting course playability without previous competitions requires a specific breakdown of the playing surfaces. Not just how soft they are, but what are the required shots needed to contend. This is where the routine nature of Tour players becomes an asset. All Tour players think alike. Granted, some are more aggressive than others, but they all are trying to hit the same targets. The course mappers may disagree, but what I see week after week in person is a large majority of the field playing to the exact same spots. It is almost uncanny at times. Knowing that, we can use comparison venues for new course weeks. Looking through my research of driver landing areas, approach buckets, and green complexes, the Cliffs at Walnut Cove is very reminiscent of TPC Deere Run and TPC River Highlands. It is not comparable to other Nicklaus courses on Tour such as Muirfield Village and PGA National. TPC River Highlands works from a layout point of view, but not from a field perspective. Very few of these competitors play in Signature series events. When I dig deeper, Sedgefield CC, Sea Island (Plantation), Silverado North, and the Dunes Beach and Golf Club provide solid comparisons as well.

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How to win?

A quick report using the comparison courses gives a great idea of who to predict. That list is still pretty long. To narrow the search even more, let's look inside the scorecard. There are two distinct approach ranges for the Cliffs. The first falls in the 100-150 range. More likely 100-125 when you consider the elevation bump. Great wedge players will score. That's the case at a bunch of typical TPC venues on Tour. The second approach bucket we need to focus on is 200+ yards. Thirty-three percent of the iron shots will come from 200-250 yards. Four of the five par 3s and the second shots on the par 5s all fit in this range. Looking to separate on the PGA Tour, be a great mid- to long-iron player. Three of the final five holes host a high-leverage long approach play. I mention this skill set first because I believe it will ultimately determine the final leaderboard. Who can create 25+ birdie chances with their iron game?
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Good putters hold an edge when the PGA Tour visits new venues. Not just because they hit their line and control speed better than their opponents, but even more so because they are simply better green readers. We have 132 rookies in this field when it comes to putting these greens. You can't say the same about OTT and approach play. Successfully navigating this course with your full swing is about hitting targets. Making putts is about reading the greens and THEN hitting the putt correctly. The GCSAA report mentions a Bentgrass-Poa mix on the greens, but with all of the heat, you can filter this field by Bentgrass putting. Poa does not survive in extreme heat. That's why Poa-heavy courses in the north run so firm and fast in the summer; the Poa basically does not grow. I expect beautiful greens this week that roll true. Another characteristic that benefits the best flatstick aficionados.
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Cool nights and (short) hot autumn days promote incredible grass growth. Toss in the amount of water the grass has received over the summer, and the rough is extremely healthy. The only real defense of a 7,000-yard golf course on the PGA Tour is to grow the rough and firm the greens. The course Superintendent has been quoted as saying he wants the rough at 5-6", but we'll see what happens when the Tour arrives. Trouble is, a modern Tour player will play aggressively, putting a scoring iron or wedge in their hand on approach as often as possible. Long and reasonably straight, that's who I am looking for OTT. Nicklaus offers tons of strategy plays the members must love, but these guys rarely use a conservative game plan. Truth be told, they cannot. Two or three of the best bombers always catch a hot putter, and when they do, if you aren't trying to hit wedges alongside them, you lose. To complement that mindset even further, there are a number of doglegs and corner bunkers longer players can carry, giving them a substantial advantage.
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Five par 3s always catch my attention. That will be 28% of holes contested after Sunday. Any player who simply plays the par 3s under par and goes deep on the par 5s will have themselves in a good position with a chance to win. The entire field can score on these 5s, but who can keep up with the 3s? The mid- to long-iron guys who routinely score on the one-shot tests. The average par 3 on the PGA Tour is right around 200 yards. A season's worth of great stats on those holes is a trait worth touting for this event. Less important for this venue is around-the-green acumen. Except for the direct approaches, a majority of these green surfaces are surrounded by thick "predictable" rough. A player’s short game creativity will be limited. If you mitigate short game imagination, it is far tougher to differentiate yourself with a wedge. Will there be a need for some timely par saves? Yes. For the most part, short game will be used for scoring near and around the par 5s after their second shot approaches the green.
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We have talked about comparison courses and player characteristics. One last factor that will influence performance is time. Time away from competitive golf. Stopping the weekly signing of scorecards can be good and bad. Those playing well at the Wyndham Championship surely wanted to continue, while others were looking forward to a reset. I'm leaning toward those who have competed in the last couple of weeks. Not many in this field made the playoffs, let alone the Tour Championship. Other options are the Korn Ferry Tour and DP World Tour. Not every outright I selected has played, but some definitely have. Players need to play. No element of a practice session can mirror the feeling of a back nine in contention. One last point of clarity: RTL readers know most weeks I filter player performance in short windows: 24 rounds (or less). For the opening fall event and due to the venue, I used the entire summer. This brought in analytics from a number of key venues and second-tier tournaments. All of which are going to reveal important trends for the Walnut Cove card.

Outright Winners - Biltmore Championship

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