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Black MassBy the time you read this, Ryder Cup fallout will have reached epic redundancy levels. Where did we (RTL) go wrong? I backed the US side based on a couple of key factors that turned out to be incorrect. The PGA's analytics team was not as well prepared as the European side. How could that actually happen? I do not know. Those data points build a strategy for the pairings and the golf course changes. If you don't think data mining matters, then look at the difference on Sunday. Line the players up, and the United States lost one individual match. Conversely, the competition was not close on Friday and Saturday because golf is not a team game. Each side has to prepare its players for Foursomes and Fourballs. It's NOT about making more putts! Put your players in the best position to perform, and they WILL succeed. A great overall performance means you will make more putts. I believe our lack of preparation even affected the crowds. My read on the players was incorrect; we never had them until their pride kicked in. Humiliation can be an incredible motivator. Thankfully, this is one mistake we can learn from. What should the PGA do going forward? That's an essay for another day. I promise to use my PGAA connections to help the situation improve. As you sift through all of the reactionary rhetoric, please keep this in mind: our issue is systemic. Until we make a conscious choice to manage the United States Ryder Cup team like a modern USA franchise, our results will remain the same. Chicken championshipFour days following the black eye at Bethpage, we have the Sanderson Farms Championship. A repeated FedEx Fall Series event, the PGA TOUR cardholders and hopefuls are familiar with the Country Club of Jackson in Jackson, Mississippi. A par 72 venue that stretches 7,461 yards on the scorecard annually presents an exciting finish. Four of the last six Sanderson events have ended in a playoff, including the last three in a row! CC of Jackson is a 27-hole facility. Tournament officials utilize the Dogwood and Azalea nines for the event. To compound the consistent entertainment, nine of the last 10 winners started the week with outright odds of +5000 or higher. Our defending champion, Kevin Yu, was a +8000 (80-1) winner one year ago. The field consists of 132 players, and the top 65 and ties will play the weekend. The field will be playing for a $6 million purse. First place will be handed a check for $1.08 million. For the second year in a row, the Chicken Dance winner's check will drop by 20%. I don't sit with the competitions committee for the TOUR, but if you love this event, I would enjoy it this fall. Two years ago, the Sanderson purse was $8.2 million. I mentioned the playoff factor in the opening, and what makes that even more interesting is the winning score. The average Sunday total over the last 10 years was nearly 20 under par (-19.5). The guys go low at CC of Jackson, and the main reason is the putting surfaces. Annually regarded as some of the best on TOUR, if you can putt Champion Bermudagrass, you can contend. The average green size is 6,200 sq/ft, and the course is covered in 56 bunkers. Just for fun, the bunkering at CC of Jackson covers 1.5 acres. The Black Course last week had 8 acres of sand! Sanderson Farms Championship starts in...Our forecast for Jackson is hot and dry. Dry when it comes to rain, but the humidity levels of over 90% won't keep these guys from feeling wet. The wind is going to blow in the single digits, and the daily real-feel temperatures are in the mid-90s. Mississippi in early October, what a treat! The region has been under drought conditions for some time. The course has barely felt an inch of rain in September. It's rare to see CC of Jackson play firm and fast. Most editions get those late summer storms to soften the surfaces. Always watch the weather with our real-time link below. Vegas set the winning over/under at -21.5. So they, and RTL expect scoring. The last 10 winners averaged 25 sub-par scores the week they won. The average cutline for the last five years is four under par. Last year, it took six under par to play the weekend. Twenty-five of the top 100 players in the world are competing. That's down from one year ago (28). Unlike the Procore, Team USA is not playing. Rasmus HΓΈjgaard is the lone Ryder Cup participant in the field. The talented twin is ranked 87th on the FedEx Cup points list. Remember, only the top 100 earn their cards. The Sanderson is one of six events left this fall. Plenty of names have to improve their FEC points standing. Pressure on players is a good thing for the fans. Remember the secondary score bug in the television coverage during the FedEx Cup playoffs? The networks would do well to lean in on that again. The path to the PGA TOUR is getting tougher and tougher. I expect a wild week with plenty of scoring. Let's put the Ryder Cup behind us and get back to our bread and butter, winning full-field events. Action JacksonThe FedEx Cup Fall Series requires scoring, and the Country Club of Jackson is no different. With an average winning score of 20 under par, every skill needed to win this week relates to going low. Unlike Bethpage, we are going to have rough-lined fairways. The field must put the ball in play off the tee to contend. Players hit less than 52% of the fairways one year ago. Keeping in mind the goal is 20 under par (or more), hitting the fairway becomes that much more important. Hitting approaches from Bermuda rough is difficult. Compounding the rough effect will be the course conditions. Firm greens will be impossible to hold from the rough, even with a wedge in your hand. The Dogwood-Azalea layout is an approach contest from 150 yards and in. Nearly 44% of approaches fall in that range. With four par 5s, and a couple of long par 3s, 30% of the remaining iron shots are played from 200 yards or more. Here's a quick look at the par categories where players gained the most strokes on the field.
To continue the par conversation, I am also favoring par 5 scoring. Eight of the last 10 winners have gained 3.5 strokes or more on the field playing the 5s. It makes sense, because the par 5s test your driver, long irons, scrambling, and putting. All very important Sanderson skills. In recent editions of the Sanderson, approach play has really set the winner apart. One of the career strokes gained leaders at CC of Jackson is Henrik Norlander. Norlander is a notorious approach-only player. Our card will be full of the best Sanderson/recent iron game guys. Taking it a step further, I will favor the players who are best from 150 yards and in. Six of the 10 par 4s fall into the strokes gained range of 400-450 yards. All of this is pretty standard on tour, but who is the best right now? Of these 132 players, we have only seen a few play more than once in the last two months! Careful tracking and historic Sanderson standouts are my focus. TPC Southwind (Memphis) or CC of Jackson are probably the two most Bermudagrass influenced venues. You must be able to roll the rock on these grainy surfaces. CC of J has always been regarded as one of the best places to putt on TOUR. Last year, seven of the top 15 in strokes gained putting finished in the top 10 on the leaderboard. That's a significant trend and one that shouldn't be overlooked. The last 10 winners have gained an average of six strokes (6.3) on the field with their flatstick. Knowing how to make putts from inside 10' on Bermuda is a skill. Confidence on these surfaces goes a long way come Sunday afternoon at the Sanderson. The dry conditions will create a little less grain influence. Knowing how to adapt comes from southern putting experience, which is just one more reason to favor the guys who are good on this blade of grass. The conditions look perfect from a scoring perspective. We already know that guys can go low on this layout. Finding the best Sanderson scorers can be tricky. Recent years have proven that you must be a good ball striker to contend. Luke List, Kevin Yu, Sergio Garcia, Cam Champ, and Sam Burns can all golf their ball. The top 10 career strokes gained leaders for the Sanderson absolutely stripe it. When I look at a list that includes Alex Smalley, Emiliano Grillo, Mark Hubbard, Stephan Jaeger, etc. it catches my attention. Unlike Mexico, in a month where you can drive it anywhere and go low, our scorers this week are ball strikers first. That's an important distinction when you are trying to build a successful card. A bunch of recent Sanderson champions have been first-time winners. This is a great breakthrough spot for a known flusher who hasn't quite closed the deal on a Sunday afternoon. We have six events left in the PGA TOUR season. Five of the six are full field events with a cut. Letβs get a win to kick off this final fall run. Outright Winners - Sanderson Farms ChampionshipRead between the linesThe best place to follow news about Read The Line is right here! β Do you know what it means to be a member of Read The Line?We provide more outrights, prop bets, H2H matchups, DFS lineups, and One & Done picks. Hit the link above and see for yourself!
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