One handed win!

ST. SIMON'S ISLAND, GA - Just when you think we have seen it all, a player wins on the PGA TOUR for the first time putting with one hand. Congratulations to Adam Schenk for capturing the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Schenk's one-shot victory on Sunday in the mid-Atlantic may have been one of the top three most entertaining endings to a TOUR event we have seen all season. To those who missed it, the event started early on Sunday due to a forecast for heavy winds. To those who watched, what were the heavy winds going to look like!?!?! Sunday morning was incredible. Adam and his opponents cautiously navigated their way through the back nine, contending with 30+ mph winds and 40 mph gusts. That's not a hyperbolic statement; it was truly wild.

Our winner was a man who competed in the Tour Championship two years ago. Still a brilliant ball striker, Schenk lost his stroke on the greens. Before the wind kicked in over the weekend, Adam was using his right hand (only) to roll the rock. As the wind increased, one hand was no longer an option due to stability. Schenk then spent most of the weekend with both hands back on the grip, although the left was merely along for the ride. In the end, a player who wickedly struggled with his stroke was left with a five-footer to save par and win on the seventy-second hole. Golf is the cruelest of games. Adam overcame his demons and knocked it in. After 242 events, Schenk somehow climbed out from a bottomless pit of self-doubt and inner demons to hit the center of the hole and earn the victory.

What a wonderful precursor for what we are about to witness in the Low Country. Welcome to the Golden Isles for the sixteenth edition of the RSM Classic.

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Keith's Keys 🗞️ A couple of key skills you can claim as your own at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. You can find complete explanations for each in the betting breakdown. Par 4 power Par 4s make-up 61% of the holes these guys get to play in round one and two. That percentage only increases over the weekend when the field plays the par 70 Seaside Course. Long island attack: There's no doubt this is a wedge-fest week on approach. Problem is, everyone is great with a scoring iron in hand. Those who separate will do it from 200 yards or more. Attack those long par 3s and par 5s in two to earn an edge. Putting prowess: The last five winners of the RSM have gained six strokes on the field with their flatstick. Seven of the last 10 winners have gained four strokes or more on the greens!

I have spent more time at Sea Island in my PGA Professional career than at any other venue on the PGA TOUR. I have played each of these courses 20+ times. In doing so, I understand every shot these men must hit to shoot 25 under par. Vegas set the over-under at 21.5 under par, but they haven't looked at the course conditions or seen a full forecast by the time that number is set. On the property, everything looks perfect. One of the advantages of RTL is being on-site. I spoke with the TOUR's on-site agronomist about the two courses.

• Sixteen of the 24 fairway bunkers on Seaside have been updated. The changes have made the faces more severe. Hit it in a bunker off the tee, and there’s a good chance you’ll face a penalty.
• The putting surfaces on Seaside are 30 years old. As such, they are playing soft. There’s nothing the TOUR can do to firm them up. Plan specifically for low scoring.
• With little wind in the forecast, the tournament officials plan to use all of the golf course(s). Both Seaside and Plantation will play their full length. This is the first time this has happened in three years.
• The overseeding on Seaside came in a little late, and around the green, we will have some thin lies.
• Plantation was not overseeded and will present firmer fairway and around the green lies than Seaside.
• Tee times will run from 8:30-10:42 during rounds one and two off both sets of tees. The field will use both sets on the weekend again and play in threesomes.

RSM Classic starts in...

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Access to that level of accurate information is what makes our weekly narrative so essential to winning. With our community growing at such a rapid rate, coverage like this is going to increase in 2026. The larger our audience, the more leverage I have with the TOUR officials to bring all of you the details your betting minds desire! Alongside the agronomy insights, let's take a look at the two golf courses.

• The Seaside Course was designed by Harry Colt in 1929 and renovated by Tom Fazio in 1999. I have never been a huge Fazio fan, but I love this course. That's probably due to the location right along St. Simons Sound. With very few trees, this course can beat you up in the wind. A par 70 scorecard (7,005 yards), there are only two par 5s to take advantage of. Forty-seven bunkers don't really describe the amount of sand you will encounter. Seaside is built on a marsh. Thirteen holes have water in play, and in between the holes, we have sandy waste areas. The greens are a little bigger on paper at 7,200 sq/ft, but that can be deceiving. They all seem to melt away on the edges, creating less landing surface than it looks like.
• The Plantation Course was designed in 1928 by Walter Travis and was renovated in 2019 by Sea Island's favorite son, Davis Love III. A par 72 layout (7,060 yards), the course exhibits 81 bunkers and 10 holes where water comes into play. This is definitely the easier of the two courses. We have four par 5s, and the par 3s as a group are easier relative to par. Seven of the 10 par 4s are under 440 yards. The greens average about 6,100 sq/ft and are covered in Bermudagrass. This layout is lined with trees, but the lack of length doesn't create a huge need for the driver. The biggest defense of these two courses is the wind, and Plantation is far more protected.

Each of the 156 players in the field will play one round on Seaside and Plantation in rounds one and two. On the weekend, the tournament shifts to the Seaside Course for Saturday and Sunday. The top 65 and ties play the weekend for $7 million and $1.26 million for first. The thing is, most of the field is here for another reason: FedEx Cup Points. The top 100 players on the FEC list after RSM qualify for the 2026 PGA TOUR FEC regular season. We all know that the number used to be 125, but field sizes have been cut, and so has the year-end total. Those outside the "Century Club" earn conditional status on TOUR and will be splitting a substantial amount of time between regular PGA TOUR events and the Korn Ferry calendar

The weather took center stage in Bermuda, and I'm very happy to report that won't be the case in Georgia. Ideal playing conditions in the mid-70s will be blessed with minimal wind and no rain. The last few RSMs have been brutal at times between cold wind and wet weather. This is the main reason why I know you will need to go low every day in order to contend for the 2025 RSM title. A couple of things to keep in mind that make this event unique. By using two courses, the TOUR can get 156 players in the field. Darkness should not be a concern, as there are no AM and PM waves. Everyone plays during the best part of the day. Even if the afternoon breeze kicks up off the Atlantic Ocean, only a few groups remain on the golf course. The perfect venue for a closing qualifying moment, the Golden Isles will display a desirable setting for 2025's final exam.

The long and short of it

The average winning score over the past five editions of the RSM Classic is 21 under par. Forget the average cutline of three under par over the last decade; go low in the Low Country, or go home. Scoring is indeed the focus on the tip of St. Simon's Island this week. With very little wind in the forecast and impeccable scoring conditions, I expect the winning score to be in the mid-20s. With such a specific (and simple) TOUR skillset needed to contend, it's no wonder the winning total keeps increasing over the years. Before 2015, only Seaside was used for the tournament. Once Plantation was added, the number of birdie opportunities more than doubled. In a unique trend, seven of the last 10 winners have started their week on the Plantation design. Is there something to that? Davis Love's redo is the easier of the two courses. Get ahead and keep going is easier than trying to catch up in a field with 28 of the top 100 in the OWGR.

Remember the two qualifying numbers. Fifty-one through 60 on the FEC list gain entry into the first two Signature events in February. The top 100 after this week stay employed on the PGA TOUR. If scoring is such a priority, how can we judge who will separate themselves in a full field? Let's start at the greens and work our way back. Putting has always been the number one differentiating skill at Sea Island. Seven of the last 10 winners have gained four or more strokes on the field with their flatstick. Coastal Bermudagrass putting is a very specific skill set. Last week, I mentioned on the Pat Mayo podcast that Bermuda and Sea Island putting surfaces were closer to Paspalum than inland Bermuda. It's grainier and will increase the pull on the ball due to the coastal conditions. Making putts inside 10' will be an impactful analytic. Organize your card around players who we know make putts on Bermudagrass by the water.

Short game gets quickly overlooked on weeks like the RSM, but never forget a deft touch around the green isn't always for saving par. All six par 5s this week are reachable. The longest on Plantation surely creates a scoring opportunity for those who cannot reach in two in that 20–40-yard range. The greens on Seaside are also surrounded by tightly mown Bermudagrass. Chipping into the grain, over bunkers, across plateaus are all part of the examination these fellas will face. Owning the best short game in the field at the risk of deficiencies in ball striking will not ensure your weekend tee time at the RSM, but the ability to convert a majority of your scoring chances from close range is key.

Approach play covers two distinct skill sets on the Sea Island courses. The obvious one is wedge play. The problem with just judging the best wedge players is that it doesn't allow players to differentiate themselves. Seventy-five percent of the players on the PGA TOUR are expert wedge players. All of them with incredible proximity. If 100 players in the field all hit their approach to 15' from 125 yards, how do we determine who will win? Surely putting is the first separating skill, but another is mid to long iron play. Six of the last 10 RSM winners have gained more on their opponents from 200+ yards on approach than any other range. What does that mean? Long par 3 tee shots and second shots on par 5s are huge scoring opportunities for the field. Why are they so important? Most players will not take advantage of them, and that's how the contenders will climb the leaderboard. Birdie a 225-yard par three or make an eagle on a par 5, and you'll pick up a stroke (or two) on the competition. Most wedge-fests are just that, who makes the most putts from 10-15'. The RSM gives you another golden opportunity to get it done, scoring with a longer iron in your hand.

Not much credit is given to off-the-tee acumen, and I think that is a mistake. Especially when you consider the changes to the fairway bunkers I described earlier. Attacking many of these hole locations requires not only hitting the fairway, but landing on the correct side. These are resort courses, so with ample room off the tee. Players won't gain much on their competitors by hitting the fairway, but they will when it leads to better scoring. Don't get me wrong, this is the fourth of the four major categories, but by the end of the week, it will give our winner a serious enough edge to get the job done. In the end, it all adds up. Take par 4 scoring, for example. The last 10 winners have gained an average of 9.5 strokes on the field playing the 4s. Sixty-one percent of the holes over the first two days are par 4s. The percentage only increases when we get to the weekend and play the par 70 Seaside Course both days. Get the best par 4 aficionados on your card if you want to contend. Sometimes an aggregate trait like this can be the difference in choosing between two 7k golfers in DFS.

With our increased coverage of the agronomy setup and my personal experience(s) playing this venue many times, I believe we are set up for incredible success to close the season. Let's finish with a winner as we wrap up the PGA TOUR's 2025 calendar.

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Outright Winners - RSM Classic

Late fall series winners often have success earlier in Autumn. Pierceson Coody has finished 14-3-31-22 across four fall starts. As one of the best drivers on the PGA TOUR, watch Coody take control of the lead this week with his off the tee game. Similar to Ludvig a few years ago, players can gain on the field with a long and accurate attack. Pierceson has been excellent on two tours this fall, and young stars tend to shine at Sea Island. Coody is poised to win the RSM with a top-tier driver and a great putter. Pierceson Coody +5000 (CS)

In his last three RSM Classic starts, Seamus Power has a fifth and fourth place. The reason for Power’s consistency in the Golden Isles is his approach game. Seamus regained his iron control at the Sanderson Farms Championship and continues to get better. A solid fairway finder off the tee, when Power’s wedges are working, he’s a contender. Why? The putter, Seamus, can score with the best of ‘em on Bermuda greens and especially on windswept layouts. Seamus Power +6500 (DK)

Upcoming Fall Coverage Schedule 📅

A few of you have asked when all of the remaining fall events take place. Here's a summary...

• December 4-7
  • PGA TOUR: Hero World Challenge
• December 12-14
  • PGA TOUR + LPGA: Grant Thornton Invitational
• December 28
  • TGL: Match 1 (Atlanta Drive GC versus New York GC)

That's a nice purse

Linn Grant infinitely lifted her 2025 stock with a win at The ANNIKA on Sunday. Grant's three-stroke victory over Jennifer Kupcho was her second LPGA win and her first top 5 since August. The Swedish superstar has always been able to blow away any field with her ball striking. This past weekend, Grant got it done on the greens as well, gaining almost one stroke per round on the field. For the third time in her career, Linn signed four scorecards in the 60s. Grant's final round of 65 capped off 130 on the weekend. The third-best Saturday and Sunday total in Tampa. Linn is the twenty-ninth unique winner in 2025 (32 events). The fourth different Swede to win this year, and the tenth player from Sweden to win twice (or more) on the LPGA tour!

Grant finished fifteenth and fifth in the last two ANNIKAs. Our hypothesis for last week was solid. Missing Grant is a bummer, as we love to bet the brilliant bomber. First round leader, Haeran Ryu, finished seventh after a third-round triple bogey set us too far back. Three more outrights in the top 15, we are ready to close out the LPGA campaign with another win. One year ago, we grabbed our eleventh win of the season when Jeeno Thitikul took home the CME Group Tour Championship title. Can she repeat? The books sure think so, as the number one player in the world is +600 to win and the betting favorite.

CME Group Tour Championship starts in...

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The final event of the LPGA season takes us to Naples, Florida, and the Tiburón Golf Club. Our host venue for the Tour Championship has the top 60 players on the CME Group points list ready to compete for an $11 million purse! FOUR million goes to the winner as the largest purse in women's golf gets everyone's attention. No player on tour this year has $4 million in earnings. Only 37 women have earned more than a million dollars on the 2025 money list. As such, the top 10 women in the Rolex world rankings are in attendance. Twenty-nine of the top 30 are competing in the season-ending tour championship (money grab). I know the PGA TOUR hands out $4 million every other week, but Nelly Korda's career earnings are $15.6 million. That would place her at 143 on the TOUR's career money list, just below Kevin Sutherland and ahead of Kurt Kitayama. Imagine?

We have an exemplary week of weather lined up in Southeast Florida. Tiburón's Gold Course, designed by Greg Norman in 1998, has hosted the women’s tour championship since 2013. The elite LPGA players are used to this par 72 scorecard. If the venue sounds familiar, the Gold Course is also where the men and women play the Grant Thornton Invitational. A team event contested annually in the second week of December. The women will walk 6,734 yards each day in the Florida sun. The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-80s and very little relief from the wind. No rain on the 10-day, all 60 players better be ready to go low. The average winning score at the CME over the last five years is 21 under par.

The 2026 LPGA competition calendar will be released this week, and you can bet we won’t see these elite women again for at least two months. If you love watching the LPGA like I do, let’s hope all of the downtime will be used constructively to improve the current product. For a tour that struggles to gain recognition, the stars take too many weeks off. I’m fine with an offseason, but let’s get organized around a global schedule that allows for full field events overseas at interesting venues and the continued elevation of women’s major championships.

Getting back to the Gold Course, Greg Norman designed this resort venue with a very generous offering from the tee box. As we approach the 18 green complexes, things get a little more complicated. Thirteen holes have water in play, and there are 50 bunkers to contend with. The average green size is 7,200 sq/ft, and the surfaces are covered in Bermudagrass. The two closing events on the LPGA calendar mirror one another in many ways. Each allows you to separate with your iron game and your putter. Get too aggressive attacking these greens, and you’d better be ready with that wedge.

Some minor improvements have been made to the course over the past few years. The Superintendent was happy to report that the region has not received any heavy rain events leading up to the tournament for the first time in years. We should get a great test since the Gold Course irrigation system has been replaced over the past two years. Sixty of the LPGA’s best are ready to make a run at $4 million. We have seen some nervous moments in this event come Sunday, and I will certainly take that into account. Strokes gained pressure with that level of life-changing prize money in place makes a big difference. One day, I’ll get my wish, and we will see an analytic that measures closing ability. Until then, I’m going to trust my PGA eyes and the observations I have made watching these women compete on-site.

Enjoy the final event of the season. If history is any indication of what we will see, it should be one hell of a closer!

Gold mettle

The outright breakdown for the RSM Classic favors players who have proven they can putt on Bermudagrass. If you think that’s a strong differentiating factor on the PGA TOUR, it is five times more important for handicapping the LPGA. New players can always pop up, but the large majority of great Florida (Bermudagrass) players remain the same. How many times have we seen Gaby Lopez climb leaderboards in the Sunshine State? Too many to count. We start with the women who continue to contend in citrus country. This is the fourth event on the calendar in Florida. Equal to or more than any other domestic location on tour. Needless to say, we have leaderboards to validate our initial leans.

Let’s go back to the 2021 edition of this event and look at the performance breakdown of our winner Jin Young Ko. Ko hit 67 of 72 GIRs that week and 63 in a row at one point! The Gold Course is all about accuracy in my mind. I realize the players have 45 acres of fairway off the tee, but angles are important. If you want to score (and you have to), then you must attack these green complexes from the proper angle. Many of the greens sit at funny angles to the fairway and tee boxes on the par 3s. As such, finding the correct approach point is important. This is why we tend to see very good ball strikers at the top of the leaderboard each year at Tiburón. Strokes gained stats will tell you approach play and putting are the most impactful, but I believe this is more of a well-rounded test. On approach, we are looking for the best wedge and scoring iron players. The average par 4 length is well under 400 yards (391). Firm conditions will help the ball roll out, which leaves these ladies with a scoring iron in their hand 67% of the time.

If the maintenance team can control the firmness through the new irrigation system and the wind remains light, 21 or 22 under par is going to win this event. The race to get there means shooting an average of 67 (or a little less) each day. The birdie players on Bermudagrass have my attention. One area that leads directly to scoring is capitalizing on the par 4s. Much like the men up at Sea Island, these ladies need to make a bunch of threes on the fours. All 11 women who finished in the top 10 last year had an under-par scoring average on the 4s. Some took advantage of the 3s, and all went low on the 5s, but those 4s were the key. A cumulative scoring stat like par 4 results is a great measure in a field like this. The winner has to separate herself from the top 20 players in the world. How will she do that? Go low on the 4s and you'll start to separate your score.

Getting up and down on the Gold Course does not show up in the strokes gained spreadsheets, but the recent top 10s have a 75% success rate scrambling. We saw last week how Bermudagrass can be brutal around the green. Linn Grant showed a deft touch with her putter on those into the grain lies. Experience leads to confidence and our outrights can save par when needed. They can also score from close range. If you want 25+ sub-par scores, converting on the two par 5s under 500 yards and the short par 4 tenth are going to require a skilled short game shot. I have spoken to several media members and friends who are down at the CME. The course is in the best shape they have experienced in years. Much like they just faced in Tampa, the contenders will need to be super sharp hitting off these tight Florida lies. Not to mention the money. Four million is a life-changing amount for these players. Many of them have not earned $4 million in their career!

Leaderboard gravity is going to be a real thing on Sunday afternoon. Plenty of players will get close on Sunday only to falter coming down the stretch. Then there was our Jeeno Thitikul, who finished eagle-birdie on 17 and 18, firing a back-nine 31 to take home the winner's check. We picked up another top 10 outright in Tampa on Sunday. Each week, we continue to contend. Our outrights are poised to collect come Sunday because we all know they can really close.

Outright winners - CME Group Tour Championship

Lydia Ko won the CME in 2022. Ko finished third last year and ninth in 2021. Ko's played great in Florida throughout her career. Putting, scrambling, and scoring, she will definitely contend again on Sunday. What puts her over the edge? Par 5 scoring. Lydia leads the tour in scoring average on the 5s and is inside the top 20 in this field for scoring on the 4s. Ko's last three starts, 5-14-9, and another win would make two for Ko in 2025. Lydia Ko +2000 (DK)

Brooke Henderson is rounding into form at the right time. A winner in August at home in Canada, she can close under immense pressure. I also love Henderson's extra competitive rounds on the Gold Course as she competes in the Grant Thornton. Eighth one year ago, at the CME twelfth in 2023, seventh in 2022, watch out as Henderson is ranked in the top 12 for par 4 and 5 scoring. That's quite the combination for this very successful Florida player. Brooke Henderson +5000 (CS)

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