Catnip π―
What a difference a year makesOh, the sponsor exemption zealots are going to have a field day with this collection of competitors for the Hero World Challenge. What has been a steady decline of star power in the Bahamas for Tiger's event may be hitting an all-time low. The combination of the Nedbank in South Africa and the Australian Open at Royal Melbourne certainly is not helping. It also seems that if you give these guys an offseason, many are going to take it! Only four players inside the top 10 of the OWGR are in attendance. Even a $5 million purse cannot corral them. One million for first place and $150,000 for twentieth, or last. Hey babe, do you want to go to the Bahamas for a week, at a fantastic resort, and I'll make $200k? Seems like an easy sell while most of the world gets colder by the minute, these guys are going to enjoy a week in paradise. Part of the strength of field situation is due to the upheaval in the world rankings this year. The names are quickly changing at the top. Six of the top 10 in the OWGR are new as compared to one year ago. Take a look.
Remember when Ben Griffin was on the outside of the OWGR top 50 and did not receive an invite to Augusta? Remember Justin Rose at Augusta! JJ made the biggest jump and took home our national championship in the process. A lot can happen in a year, just ask the six players who were inside the top 10 at the end of 2024 and are out. Collin Morikawa (12), Ludvig Γ berg (16), Hideki Matsuyama (20), Wyndham Clark (38), Viktor Hovland (13), and Bryson DeChambeau (26) have all had a year worth forgetting in one way or another. As Rolapp's rhetoric points out, the PGA TOUR has a ton of competitive parity. In case you missed it, there was an excellent interview with the TOUR's new CEO on CNBC. Click the LINK if you want to watch. Ernie's sandboxWe have three rookies in the field for the Hero: JJ Spaun, Chris Gotterup, and Andrew Novak. First-timers have held their own at Albany; two of them (Hovland, Rahm) have won in the nine editions played at this venue. Novak was strong at RSM, finishing seventh, while we haven't seen Spaun for a month and Gotterup for two. The par 72 scorecard stretches 7,449 yards. Ernie Els designed the layout for an event just like this. Seventy-four hundred yards plus at sea level requires some serious long iron play, especially if the wind blows. Thankfully, we have a gorgeous week in store. Temperatures are forecasted in the low 80s, a slight chance of rain on Sunday afternoon, and the Caribbean breeze in the 8-12 mph range. The average winning score while this event has been contested at Albany is 19.8 under par. Twenty men who all can win, some have done it more recently than others... Hero World Challenge starts in...Pull up Google Maps, and the first thing that catches your attention is the yachts! Once you get past the Albany marina, the course looks like one big sandbox. Ernie's design only boasts 52 bunkers, but that does not tell the whole story. Sitting at sea level on the southwest coast of Nassau, every hole is surrounded by dunes. A picturesque seaside setting, do not get off the beaten "fairway" path. There are 45 acres of fairway across 18 holes. Yet for some reason, this event is always remembered for drives and approaches that end up in the dunescape. The average green size is 4,500 sq/ft, and they are covered Bermudagrass. Albany is wall-to-wall Bermudagrass and has five holes where water comes into play. In keeping with the five theme, Els' architecture offers five par 3s and five par 5s during each round. Three of the five par 3s are played over water with an average length of 200 yards. Not the best birdie chances, but five par 5s, well, that's where these world-class players will begin their attack. To no oneβs surprise, Tiger Woods is not in the field. That's three missed tee times in the last four years if you are keeping track at the Hero. There was a sense of optimism in his voice yesterday during the opening press conference with Dr. Munjal. We don't need Tiger back full-time, but the Genesis and a couple of major championships would be nice. His fingerprints can be felt all over the new, rumored schedule strategy. How quickly we forget what a Tiger season looked like. Eighteen to 20 events per year, and his entire schedule was built around major championships. That's certainly the direction we are going. Please keep in mind that this doesn't necessarily mean we are going to lose tournaments. While Rolapp's Committee may be focused on scarcity, it is the PGA TOUR's parity that will shine through. It won't take long to see it. With the cut to 100 cards for 2026, many of the middle tier will be forced to make KFT/DP World starts. Fighting to compete on the top tour will increase the relevance and entertainment value of those events. There has always been a secondary tour, and now it will have better players. The trickle down will cascade all the way to the collegiate events as the young men are competing for PGA TOUR U status. Active competition is great for the fans, and we are going to see more, not less, of it. When the Nedbank hosts Viktor Hovland and Will Zalatoris, or the Australian Open receives a positive RSVP from Rory McIlroy and Adam Scott, events like the Hero are going to suffer. But truth be told, we donβt want 20-man events. Thank goodness the two-time defending champion is also the number one player in the world. It can be funny at times how things work out. For this edition of the Hero (and its future), it seems the stars are in scarce supply at the moment. Hero driversThe seven winners over nine years of the Hero World Challenge contested at Albany are a who's who of ball striking off the tee. We have two repeat winners on that list: Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland. Preceding their reign over the last four years, Henrik Stenson, Jon Rahm, Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, and Bubba Watson took home the Tiger trophy. When I hear those names in succession, I think of (many) strokes gained off the tee! Sometimes when we start to break down an event, we tend to overlook a few of the fundamentals. That trend line in the championsβ locker room at Albany is significant. The trap is seeing 45 acres of fairway on the GCSAA report. A standard signature event or major would offer half that amount. Here's what we have learned from watching the Hero very closely: great drivers of the golf ball win here. As we break down the limited field, that's where we are starting. Once that drive lands safely away from the dunes, we want approach players who can attack from long range. Five par 5s and three par 3s over 190 yards with a little wind require aggressive mid to long iron play. Scottie gained seven strokes on the field last year with his irons and another five with his driver. That's extremely tough to beat unless you gain 10+ strokes with your putter. Sixty percent of the approach shots these guys will face will come from greater than 175 yards. Scottie, Viktor, Rahm, etc., are all GIR killers from long range. If you plan to pause Scheffler's Albany reign, then these two skills are essential to scoring. With this wind forecast, the winner will be 19 to 21 under par. Measuring approach acumen in the offseason can be difficult. I'm leaning toward players who have competed recently. Taking 10 weeks off before competing in some fashion is a non-starter. We might be off, but you have to make tough decisions every week to build a positive card. Eleven 2025 PGA TOUR winners are in the field. We know all of these guys can close, but those 11 have proved it recently. Scoring can be broken down into a couple of elements at Albany. The first skill set can be seen on the putting surfaces. These are some of the grainiest greens and surrounds on the PGA TOUR. Lag putting is important and has proven to provide our winners with fewer strokes. The best Bermudagrass guys trend as well. Remember the path to 20 under par. It involves creating 30+ legitimate scoring chances. We covered the start of those opportunities in the ball striking breakdown, but the putter will be needed to convert two-thirds. Scheffler gained four strokes on the field with his flatstick one year ago. The second scoring trait comes around the green. This edge is the most important when it comes to capitalizing at Albany. Players will face seven approach shots from under 50 yards. I love Bermuda scramblers at this place. Scottie, Rahm, and Hideki all get it done with their wedges. Convert five of the seven each day, and you are 20 under par. Players will be tested with awkward lies, into the grain, and sandy loose soil. Who can get up and down the most with a wedge from close range? Alongside the driver, short game scoring is my second most important attribute. Scrambling even provides support on those four par 4s over 470 yards. The dunes are going to come into play. How you handle the grass, sand, and grain is a true scoring weapon at Albany. Albany can also produce some quirky situations. I know three rookies have won, but two of them were Rahm and Hovland. The third was Bubba in 2015, and everyone was a rookie at Albany that year. Scottie even needed back-to-back runner-up finishes (lol) before he broke through with two wins. Course experience counts, especially if we receive any kind of breeze in the Bahamas. Players who can win with their driver, score by scrambling, and putt super grainy Bermuda are my focus. We have two weeks left to pick a winner in 2025; let's get one this week in Albany. Please note, some of the outright bets have been made without Scottie in the field. Scheffler is 45 under par in the last two editions. Though the odds become shorter, they still aren't as short as taking Scottie at less than 2-1! Outright Winners - Hero World ChallengeUpcoming Fall Coverage Schedule πA few of you have asked when all of the remaining fall events take place. Here's a summary...
βRead between the linesThe best place to follow news about Read The Line is right here! β Do you know what it means to be a member of Read The Line?We provide more outrights, prop bets, H2H matchups, DFS lineups, and One & Done picks. Hit the link above and see for yourself! β
Think you have a gambling problem? Reach out for help. Read The line promotes responsible gaming. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit these online resources: |
β