One signature Sunday

HILTON HEAD, SC - It's amazing how a single movie line can seemingly encapsulate truly historic theater. The Sunday battle between Masters Champion Rory McIlroy and surprise runner-up Justin Rose lived up to all the overnight hyperbole. The 2025 major championship season is officially underway, and I learned a ton being on-site at Augusta National Golf Club. We rarely get to see LIV's best golfers and one of them did not disappoint. Tyrell Hatton and Patrick Reed also make cases for early Ryder Cup consideration with their competitive finishes. Something is just not right with Scottie Scheffler. Seven starts post ravioli incident, and we still have not seen his winning form. Ludvig Åberg always has my attention and Morikawa better find a way to handle the media. There's three to go and after an amazing week in Augusta one thing is crystal clear. The remainder of golf's majors will involve Sunday's final group again.

After moments like Masters week, the best part of golf betting is that we have another event right around the corner. Xander, Rahm, and JT underperformed. We chose wrong and therefore it is important to get re-focused immediately as our fourth signature event of the season is next; RBC Heritage. I've taken the three-hour trek down to the low country and crossed the bridge over to Hilton Head. Harbour Town Golf Links will host a stronger field of 71 competitors than Augusta National. Eliminate those amateurs and the over 50 past champions and you better go low down in the low country.

Going low country

The southern tip of Hilton Head is framed by Harbour Town Golf Links. A unique Pete Dye design, the scorecard stretches 7,213 yards playing to a par 71. Replace one par 5 with a par 4 and you have the layout. There's $20 million in the purse and $3.6 million for first place. Much like ANGC, Harbour Town is a top 5 predictive course on the PGA TOUR. The reason, our skill set this week is very well defined. The second smallest greens on TOUR, Pete Dye has placed a strong emphasis on accuracy around these "golf links." Players hit about 8% below the PGA TOUR average for GIRs. They also drive the ball approximately 15 yards less (on average) than the weekly TOUR standard. Competitors are very careful around this Dye design.

In a unique twist and even with the tiny targets, the average winning score over the last five years is 18 under par. Year number three with signature status, we have stronger fields than previous editions four plus years ago. Elite players can go low and that is definitely a skill to consider. Since we don't have a cut, you might as well play aggressively. That doesn't mean start firing balls into the trees but rather knowing you will need to keep up. Chances are when you do look at the leaderboard, here's who you will see.

• Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, JT Poston, Matt Kuchar, Ludvig Åberg, Cam Davis, Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick, Patrick Rodgers, Daniel Berger

Keith's Keys 🗞️ A couple of key skills you can claim as your own at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. You can find complete explanations for each in the betting breakdown. Tiny targets: Harbour Town GL has the second smallest average green size on TOUR (3,700 sq/ft). Make no mistake this a GIR contest. Attention deficit: The Masters is a tremendous physical test. Less than a week later, you are battling many of the same elite players on another tough test. I'm walking the grounds looking for guys that are fresh and are not showing signs of fatigue. Augusta influence: Ten of the last 13 RBC winners played in the Masters one week prior (one exception on that timeline is 2020).

It pays to know who excels on predictive courses like this one. The combination of driving accuracy and iron acumen clearly reminds me of a couple spots on the PGA TOUR. Players who contend at Innisbrook, TPC River Highlands, TPC Sawgrass, and Sedgefield come to mind quickly. Those small surfaces are covered in Poa trivialis and roll very true. The region has not had any rain in early April. Walking the course, one can easily see the Superintendent and tournament staff have the turf conditions right where they want them. Harbour Town is going to play firm and fast. Temperatures are predicted to reach the high 70s/low 80s each round. We don't have any precipitation in the forecast and we're on the water so the 8-10 mph breeze out of the south will feel stronger than it reads.

RBC Heritage starts in...

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The turf conditions are going to make the course play even smaller. One of the tiniest tests on TOUR, the bounces will send shots over greens and through fairway edges. Those hallways off the tee tend to bend. Eleven of the 14 fairways move as they wind their way through the lowlands of Hilton Head. Much like The Masters, Dye's design also takes great advantage of angles. Correct positioning off the tee allows players to approach the different hole locations. Many of these fairways can get a little claustrophobic. This is why accuracy is so important here. I have always found HTGL a little ironic. Most think of Harbour Town and the eighteenth hole. The iconic lighthouse scene and that 80-yard wide fairway. You can fit three of the remaining 13 fairways across that span.

There were a bunch of popular players last week who underperformed. Sepp Straka, Russell Henley, and Keegan Bradley all missed the cut just to name a few. The next major is in four weeks. The 2025 major championship will be contested over the next 14 weeks. If your goal is to bring one of those trophies home, the time is now to play better. For the fourth year in a row, The Masters winner has won multiple times prior to grabbing the green jacket. I knew that trend and I missed it. Going forward, I know where we stand in 2025. We will use Masters week as motivation; what we witnessed on Sunday was unbelievable. To watch on-site was incredible and inspiring. We now have extra fuel to hit these upcoming events with extra incentive to win.

Straight Jacket

The RBC Heritage is a great opportunity in a few ways. Harbour Town Golf Links creates competitive chances for the field based upon the skills needed in order to contend here. Just start with the length. Augusta National was well over 7,500 yards. Nearly two-thirds of the field cannot compete on a course that long. HTGL brings all 71 players into the competitive fold. One of the most interesting analytics I always use for Harbour Town is good drives gained. The ability to still hit GIRs even when you miss the fairway. It implies you miss the short grass by a very small margin since you are still reaching the green surface. With the small corridors these guys face around HTGL, it ends up being a very valuable trait.

The greens are small at Harbour Town. They are the second tiniest on TOUR (average 3,700 sq/ft). Getting to these green surfaces is super important. The average winning score in the last five years is 18 under par. With fantastic tournament weather predicted, I expect a similar number. In fact, Vegas has set the over/under at 17.5 under par. Keep in mind, last week's over/under was 11.5! Since scoring (BoB%) is a priority, we are building a strong card of sub-par players. Nine holes have a scoring average over par, and therefore going low must balance with a strong birdie to bogey ratio. Bogey avoidance seems to be a forgotten characteristic among the contenders across most of the betting media I have consumed.

It is important to keep the ship heading in a positive direction. The easiest answer to not making bogeys, bring a serious iron game. Almost 50% of your approach shots are struck from 125-175 yards. Over the last decade, seven of the last 10 winners have gained over five strokes on approach. Where did they separate themselves the most?

• Par 3 – 175-200
• Par 4 – 400-450
• Par 5 – 550-600

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I love looking at the correlated skills chart for each venue. It just sets my PGA mind on a very successful course for the week. Much like how a lighthouse steers a ship through a dark sea at night. Harbour Town rewards accurate iron play like few other courses on TOUR. As I write this, it is important to understand how influential it can be. Players separate with their approaches through proximity, par 3 scoring, various yardage buckets, and from the rough. If the winners are gaining 6.4 strokes (on average) versus the field in the year they won, that's significant. I ran an approach report that included 11 iron game characteristics to determine who is a good fit and possesses great recent form.

• Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Sepp Straka, Xander Schauffele, Lucas Glover, Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Corey Conners, JJ Spaun, Russell Henley

Whether they made the cut at The Masters or not, these 10 players have a decided advantage at HTGL. The other three major skill categories all seem to revolve around approach play. Driving distance is curtailed at HTGL. The field hits to various fairway positions and then attempts their approach. Playing from the same fairway location a majority of the time is like competing in a par 3 contest. Who can strike it close and score. Scrambling holds less of a role, but don't not overlook it. Seven of the last 10 winners gained three strokes or more on the field. Sand play always seems to trip up a couple of the contenders over the weekend. The course is in brilliant shape and the greens are firm.

Good putters can make putts here. From five to 25 feet, the make percentage at HTGL is higher than the PGA TOUR average. Let's be honest, you're not going to see many putts over 30-35 feet on these greens based upon their overall size and the length of the approach shots in. Prior to gaining signature status, HTGL had several longshot winners. The positional nature of the course allows players with a strong iron game and putter to contend even with other weaknesses. Since becoming an elevated event, that trend has come to an end. Spieth and Scheffler have won when the best are in the field. These are all major champions and familiar names in golf. My point in mentioning this is important. Both of them have only played this venue a couple of times prior to winning.

I'm not putting all my eggs in just one basket, and it is an egg week. Watching The Masters unfold, it was enlightening how certain players performed on golf's grandest stage. That was prime time tournament stress, and a bunch of very popular leans did not produce. Will a smaller signature week make a difference? I don't think so. The best players saw Rory dominate the start of the season and win a green jacket. Scottie (2022), Rahm (2023), and Scottie again in 2024 built that blueprint over the last three years. Xander followed it up by winning two majors last year once his form was on point. Major season is all about momentum and that's the most important lesson I learned at Augusta.

Outright Winners - RBC Heritage

Xander Schauffele never seriously contented at The Masters and finished T8 for the second year in a row. I mention this because the results were good, but he won’t be nearly as mentally drained as those in contention. Schauffele has really started to show signs of being a recent two-time major champion. The approach game is on fire and he finally has the driver locked in. I foresee another iron week like the Valspar with a little extra rust dusted off from the rib injury. Xander’s getting close to defending at the PGA and will no doubt be pushing hard for a win prior to Quail Hollow. Xander Schauffele +1400

One year ago, Wyndham Clark missed the cut at The Masters and then proceeded to finish third at the RBC Heritage. Presently, Clark is playing better golf around the season’s first major and returns to a golf course that suits his style. Wyndham contends on positional golf courses; Pebble Beach (win), TPC River Highlands (T9), THE PLAYERS (T2). The main reason why is not Clark’s power, but rather his touch. Wyndham is an excellent scoring iron player, short game scorer and putter. Three traits that will make this longshot live again in the low country. Wyndham Clark +5500

Interim management

The revolving door that is the LPGA schedule spins again. Wilshire Country Club has been the host venue of the JM Eagle LA Championship presented by Plastpro or the LPGA since 2018. After 106 years, Wilshire CC (est. 1919) is in the midst of a $25 million renovation to their golf course. So, we shuffle the deck and find an interim host 17 miles northwest of Wilshire CC. El Caballero Country Club is our home for 2025 and no stranger to elite women's golf. Last year, "El Cab" hosted the 75th US Girls' Junior Championship. Rianne Malixi from the Philippines won the title 8&7 in the finals over another superstar player Asterisk Talley. Malixi also won the US Women's Amateur in 2024; a feat only accomplished by one other women, Eun-Jeong Seong in 2016.

El Caballero hosted the LPGA from 2002-04. That list of past champions includes Se Ri Pak and Annika Sorenstam. This championship context starts to help us build an accurate betting card. All four of those players aforementioned are elite. If El Cab rewards them, we can already start to see the archetype competitor we are looking for in this field of 141 players. The top 65 and ties will continue after 36-holes and compete for $3.75million and $562,500 for first. There's one player in particular who must be upset we moved from Wilshire. Hannah Green has owned the LA Championship. Green has finished first, first, second, and third in her last four starts. RTL readers won a little green last year as we predicted Hannah to win (+3500) for the second straight year!

LA Championship starts in...

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Tarzana, California has been dry like most of the state for the past year. Located in the valley north of Los Angeles, their climate will be nice for tournament golf. Early mornings start in the low 50s and will extend to the high 60s in the afternoon. There's a small window of precipitation in the forecast for Thursday night into Friday. Minimal accumulation with a 25% chance to rain. The wind should be quite calm in the valley blowing under 10mph all four rounds and out of the south. That's significant because El Caballero is another one of those courses that sits directly north to south. The par 72 scorecard measures 6,679 yards and displays the usual inventory of four par 3s and 5s and 10 par 4s.

El Caballero's design is an accumulation of efforts by William Johnson, Robert Trent Jones Sr., and his son Rees. Known for muting courses, Rees did leave much of the green complex character. These surfaces are surrounded by severe bunkering and run-offs. Nine holes head north and mainly downhill. Turn around for eight holes and you climb in elevation when you go south on this layout. The biggest challenge El Cab presents these women are numerous uneven lies. The terrain changes on this course are terrific. Say what you want about the Jones' work, the ground effects here are exciting.

We've had one stroke play event in the last six weeks on the LPGA schedule. Prior to The Masters, many players were in the Match Play, but head to matches with putts given is far from a 72-hole medal-play marathon. With very little continuity on a new course will we keep this card tight. Turn in a positive week, grab a winner, and get ready for the Chevron Championship; the first LPGA major championship of the season.

Uneven queen

I have spoken to several Los Angeles and architectural sources about the layout at El Caballero. Looking through the results of the US Girls' Junior and previous LPGA events at the venue, we can get a great ide of the type of player who can excel here. Most eastern American residents never consider the topography of the Los Angeles region. There are sharp hills all over the landscape. Everyone who I spoke mentioned the same theme; there are no flat lies. Coming from Augusta National, I have an idea of what that will play like. Let's beak down what the winner needs in order to contend on the weekend and ultimately grab the trophy come Sunday afternoon.

El Cab has some pretty narrow hallways off the tee. Like many populated neighborhood designs, architects must make great use of space. Twelve of the 14 fairways bend, and they are framed by well-placed trees. Keeping the ball in a position off the tee where your approach can go directly at your target is key at El Caballero. Even with so many uphill holes, I'm still going to favor accuracy over length. Being long AND straight is a huge edge, but those players are all at the top of the odds board. To find some value, we need to go lower and in that category, I'm going with the most accurate drivers.

The approach examination favors the long iron game. nine of the approaches are over 150 yards. Against the men's numbers I normally list, it doesn't sound like much, but for many of these players anything that carries over 165 yards requires a hybrid or longer iron. Couple that with a bunch of uphill approach shots and the second biggest hurdle our winner needs to overcome is deciding how to carefully gauge the approach distances. This is a skill that is often overlooked, but at El Cab it can really define your round. Recent comp courses like Palos Verdes down in Orange County give us a great list of solid approach players on courses with tons of uneven lies.

The bunkering on El Cab is severe. Forty-six bunkers surround these green complexes. Each is perfectly placed and quite deep. Rees softened some of them, but for the most part, they are still very difficult hazards. Around the green acumen is being weighted with a focus on sand play. We know who these players are, and they will be featured across our card. Uphill approaches are blessed with natural run-offs and collection areas. We will see a large number of the same players executing shots around the green from the same exact spot. By creating similar shots, the better short game scorers will have a decided edge and the ability to separate from the field.

My prediction is for some mid-teens scoring if you are going to win. The reason, there will be birdies are these green surfaces. Much more muted than the originals, the women will have an opportunity to make sub-par scores. With that in mind, I'm going to use the RTL-LPGA scoring combo of BoB%, strokes gained scoring, putting, and birdie to bogey ratio. Our outrights need an average score of -3.5 per round. Scoring is definitely a skill and when we have events where you need to go pretty deep, selecting those who can separate and convert birdie chances is a huge key. When we have little or no history, I always favor those who can consistently go low. Always keep in mind, the lowest score wins.

Forty par 4s over four days will definitely determine the contenders. Par 4 scoring along with overall proximity to the hole and strokes gained ball striking are my last research edges. All of these crazy lies will be "handled" by a couple of these elite players. Fifteen of the top 20 in the Rolex World Rankings are here. One is ready to add her name to the list I mentioned in the opening. El Cab produces quality champions, and right below we have a couple of very strong candidates.

Outright winners - LA Championship

El Cab has historically rewarded great stars. Lilia Vu finished runner-up in her last start and is another elite player finding her form for major season. She has two top 15 finishes on similar terrain style courses in southern California. Vu hits a ton of fairways and can convert on the green surfaces. Lilia also sits in the top third of this field for her short game skill. Lilia Vu +3000

When you need a solid approach player, I love backing Celine Boutier. Fresh off a quarterfinal run at the match play in Vegas, Boutier's iron game is ready. Celine is also a wonderful short game and sand player when she does miss a GIR. Boutier finished thirteenth last year in Los Angeles at Wilshire CC, and eighth at the Mediheal a few years ago. This major champion can strike the golf ball and at 40-1 has great odds as a proven winner. Celine Boutier +4000

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