California Love π
Pacific timePALM BEACH GARDENS, FL As the PGA TOUR heads back to California and begins its signature tournament season at Pebble Beach Golf Links, two teams from California head east to compete in the SoFi Center. Los Angeles Golf Club (1-1) takes on The Bay Golf Club (0-2) at 7:00 pm ET on ESPN 2 tonight. Two clubs that led the TGL in several categories in Season 1 have not found their flow in Season 2. Los Angeles handled Jupiter Links the last time we saw them in Palm Beach Gardens three weeks ago (8-4). The Bay lost their previous encounter to Boston Common 9-1! These were the number one and two seeds in the SoFi Playoffs last year. The oddsmakers at BetMGM have LAGC as a considerable favorite when lines opened (-135). We all know how that worked out for the Atlanta Drive GC in Match 7 when the winless Jupiter Links GC upset the defending champions. To couple the complexity of this matchup, the TOUR's elite are across the country. Let's get to the lineups because we have a couple of fresh faces entering golf's version of the octagon! The format, course, and starting lineupsThe starting lineup for The Bay GC includes two of the TOUR's young stars: Neil Shipley and Luke Clanton. Both have earned their card for 2026 and caught the attention of golf fans. They aren't Ludvig Γ berg, but together they have five top 10s on TOUR. Luke Clanton is 22 years old, and Neil Shipley is 25. Toss them in with Min Woo Lee, and we have a youthful set of starters for TBGC. Collin Morikawa and Justin Rose are sitting out on the LAGC side. Tony Finau is back to step in and substitute for the Hollywood boys. Finau shared his talents last year in the SoFi Center for LAGC in their match against New York GC. Tony helped secure the win and even did a little fancy Finau footsteps to the music! A natural fit for the simulator sod, let's hope a second trip helps Tony turn his game around. The popular Finau has been in a serious slump for months and needs a reboot.ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ Tonight's scorecard is the longest we have seen to date in Season 2! Tournament officials have set up a test for these two teams. To give you an example of the difference between Match 7 and Match 8, the average par 4 is 48 yards longer tonight. Both of these teams can let the driver rip, and they will have to. The course is long, and two of the par 3s are still under 140 yards! The course presents six season 2 holes. Four in Triples, and the final two will be played early in the individual H2Hs. Tommy Fleetwood and Neil Shipley get the Stinger tee shot on hole 8. That's one swing that was tailor-made for Fleetwood, I cannot wait to see him lower that trajectory and shoot one under the cliff. Neil, on the other hand, hits high draws with his driver. The second-to-last alternate shot test could be a key moment in this match. This collection of approaches is tougher than we have seen in a few weeks. The better approach team has an advantage. Players are only hitting these 15 greens approximately 63% of the time. This is going to be a fun match to handicap. Four of the six players have not played in Season 2! Granted, one is Tommy Fleetwood, and I have no concerns there, but how will the kids react? Tony Finau has missed three cuts in four starts in 2026. Sahith Theegala has been good inside and outside, especially around the green and with the putter. Another massive moment in their match last year happened on the twelfth hole when Sahith chipped in for birdie on the par 3, Fallen Pine. Clanton participated in the Golf Channel Games in Palm Beach Gardens. He has some experience in golf-adjacent activities. Shipley, on the other hand, played for the first time on a weekend in Phoenix. Before WMPO, Neil had missed all three 36-hole cuts to start his season. Los Angeles is definitely the favorite, but last week's upset does make the positive odds tempting. Which way will RTL go? Keep reading. Match breakdownMatch 8Big changes to The Bay GC lineup might be just what the doctor ordered. Starting Season 2, there has been a serious drop-off in performance. TBGC led all of TGL (Season 1) in driving accuracy, GIRs, short-putt efficiency, Triples holes won, and Triples points won. Currently, Min Woo, Shane, Ludvig, and Wyndham rank last in all of those categories but one. They are fourth in short-putt efficiency. From worst to first will NOT win you any matches inside the SoFi Center. They have lost their first two matches by a combined score of 16-5! Flip to LAGC, and they lead TGL in GIR%. Los Angeles is hitting 76.7% of their targets with an iron in their hand. This collection of holes is difficult to hit. Take the worst team in GIR% and pit them against the best team, and then give them a really tough approach test. We know scrambling makes a big difference in the SoFi dome. LAGC is two times more successful getting up and down than The Bay. TBGC saves par around the green 27.3% of the time. LAGC? 60%. This is like compounding interest. Players are going to miss greens tonight. And the weaker approach team is also much weaker around the green. Did I mention The Bay GC is ranked fourth in short-putt efficiency? The lack of ball striking does not allow you to win holes and score points. I can keep going about the mismatch, but the regular guys are not playing for The Bay! In fact, Min Woo Lee only played in one match, and the other two are rookies. Unfortunately, the two debutants are not having a great start to their season. Neither ranks inside the top 165 in strokes gained putting, nor the top 114 in scrambling. Throw the scoring stats aside, both are not driving the ball well, and Shipley's iron game is ranked one-hundred and thirtieth! Luke's approach acumen is ranked fifty-second, but we are playing against Tommy and Sahith. Shipley against Fleetwood is a... matchup. Tommy is ranked number four in the world and is the reigning FedEx Cup Champion. The Bay lost to Boston Common Golf 9-1 with Shane and Wyndham. The new guys could gel, but their stats really don't give me a reason to monitor The Bay's odds. Speaking of monitoring, here's a breakdown of the H2H matchups.
Los Angeles GC is going to win Match 8. Experience is a huge factor during live matches inside the SoFi Center. Clanton and Shipley are quite new to this. Not to mention, neither one has distinguished themself on the West Coast. They have five missed cuts in seven events and a WD (Clanton) between them. Finau has not been finishing in the top 20 every week, but he has played a TGL match before and is a veteran. A known likable character, Tony will have the crowd on his side. Simply put, the number four-ranked player in the world is going H2H against Shipley for nine straight holes. Forget the Singles for a second, Tommy will be hitting every drive, every approach, and every putt matched up with a rookie who is struggling. That edge alone is my reason, and others listed above, why LA takes home the California crown. Betting card - Match 8 Winner* - Odds can change from site to site. Make sure you shop around before making each bet. Even though a bet is listed, it may have changed since the newsletter was published. FanDuel (FD), Caesars (CS), DraftKings (DK), BetMGM (BM), bet365 (B3), Bet Rivers (BR), Fanatics (FN) Do you want to be a better bettor?Become a member of Read The Line today!β
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