Cabo San Lucas π§€
The cutline is comingThe FedEx Cup Fall has just three weeks remaining. This eight event sprint to qualify for 2025 TOUR cards takes us to Los Cabos, Mexico. For the second year in a row, the World Wide Technology Championship will be contested at El Cardonal at Diamante. Designed by Tiger Woods in 2014, this seaside setting allowed record scoring in 2023. Erik van Rooyen won last year by two strokes over Camilo Villegas at 27 under par! Speaking of Camilo, the PAC Chairman made the headlines last week even though the PGA TOUR was off. In a letter to the players, the PAC has outlined significant changes to the tournament structure for 2026. Field sizes will be reduced, Monday open qualifying was removed from a number of events, and the pace of play guidelines have been updated. The field size changes in particular are a harsh reminder of why we are in Cabo. Players have three events to climb inside the top 125 of the FEC points list. According to Camilo's changes, that number will be 100 in 2026! Guess what, the TOUR is a strict meritocracy. You gotta play to stay. Although open qualifiers create fun stories that last about four days, the fact is the PGA TOUR needs to promote the best playing product possible. Fans are looking elsewhere for their golf entertainment outside of the majors. By making it more difficult to keep your card, the players will have to get better. The churn will force a talent evolution similar to the one we saw when Tiger took over. I believe many of the changes they propose are good for the professional game. WWT Championship starts in...World WoodsWe were all introduced to El Cardonal at Diamante last year when the World Wide Technology Championship needed to find a new home. To be honest, El Cardonal was much more fun to watch than El Cameleon in Mayakoba. The entire fall is a scoring fest, and this venue fits right in. What better place to visit right after the time change dampens our days with darkness than paradise alongside the Pacific. I don't know if we all were ready for 27 under par, but we got there. If you shot 16 under par for 72-holes you finished T31! The cutline was five under par, and the scoring seemed to get better as the weekend went on. There were 23 rounds of 64 or better during the week. Eleven of them happened on Sunday. Sixteen players of the 73 who made the cut shot four rounds in the 60s. Twenty-two percent of those making the cut did not score over 70 at any time during the event. The 2023 scoring average for all four rounds was 3.2 under par and the average almost crossed five under par on Sunday. Fourteen of the 18 holes played under par for the week and 16 holes carried a birdie rate higher than 15%. I think you get the idea as we return to Woods' World. Pack a scorching hot putter and get ready to go south under the border. The PGA TOUR heads to paradise this time of year for one simple reason: the weather. The forecast in Cabo calls for temperatures in the mid to high 80s each day and wind off the water each afternoon in the 8-12 mph range. No rain on the weather app, our field of 120 players will have no excuses for not playing well. El Cardonal is a par 72 scorecard reaching 7,452 yards. Considering we have four par 5s and a bunch of downhill holes set on a mountainside, length was not the main reason why these guys go deep. There might be six par 4s over 460 yards, but let's face it that's a driver and a scoring iron. There's no doubt they will be using driver everywhere as the course has no rough and 97 acres of FW. Top put that in perspective, the LPGA's venue has 30 acres of fairway in Hawaii and most major championship venues have 25-28 acres of the short grass. Ninety-seven acres is ridiculous. The field hit a record 90% of their fairways last year. The PGA TOUR average is 62%. Adam Long hit all 56 fairways for the week. Austin Cook hit 53 of 56 fairways and finished tied fifteenth for fairway accuracy. He only missed three! Alongside the massive fairways we have 48 bunkers and an average green size of 8,300 sq/ft. The greens are covered in Platinum Paspalum grass. A spongy, grainy grass that we see at many of these seaside venues. Much like the other species, certain players putt well on these specific surfaces. Last year's top 10 had an interesting mix of young and old players. These guys felt a sense of urgency to push for points in the closing weeks. Nobody wants to lose status and head back to the Korn Ferry Tour. Or worse yet, get caught in the re-shuffle between both tours. That's what those 2026 changes are really trying to eliminate. The TOUR is drawing a line in the sand if you want to play going forward. Let's be honest, the beach in Cabo is not a bad place to try and cross it! Cabo San BirdiesDo you remember all of the discussions heading into this event last year? In looking back at RTL's 2023 narrative preparing to pen this year's preview, I came across a number of gems. Little did we know how deep the field would go. In summary, we favored length and paspalum putting. Well, the top 10 from year ago only had one player ranked in the top 25 in driving distance on TOUR (Γ berg). The rest of the leaderboard were all guys who could get it in the hole. As it turned out, El Cardonal did not play that long. The field had very little trouble hitting any fairway and our statement of needing 24 sub-par scores would have had you finish in fourth place if you didn't have any bogeys. Let's start again with the putting. El Cardonal and these large greens had a very high three-putt percentage (65%). The PGA TOUR average week to week is 55%. Tiger's greens were wicked and if you hit the ball near the hole, you could make putts. Find yourself on the wrong level, shelf, or tier and it was trouble. Remember the top 10... Matt Kuchar, Villegas who would win next week in Bermuda, Justin Suh, Andrew Putnam, and Mac Hughes all scream putting out loud! I'm starting our card right there. Another attribute we picked up from last year was hole proximity. It sounds obvious, but in birdiefest weeks do we weight this skill enough? Gaining birdie opportunities on the field are really important. I not sure if we get to 27 under again, but the mid-20s should be the target score. In order to do that, we need players who can create 36 legitimate sub-par scoring opportunities. That's definitely a skill not all players have. The ability to accumulate low scores and keep going is a unique mindset. EVR did it last year playing for his sick college teammate. Who will have the extra motivation this year? The field made 2,094 birdies last year. Hot golfers generally don't just show up out of thin air. We have been tracking the best FedEx Cup Fall players for the past two seasons. Here's a quick top 10 of those players from the past two falls who are also in great current form. Don't be surprised if our winner comes from right here.
There's a couple of rookies who we must pay attention to as well. Here's the point, talk about stats and skill sets all you want, but a majority of a positive betting card for the WWT is going to come from this core group. Even Vince Whaley is gaining an average of seven tenths of stroke per round on the field over the past two fall runs. Favoring the fall player history is an edge most may overlook. Experience counts so much in golf and winning is extremely hard. Taking players with a positive fall (current and recent past) makes great sense. Mid/long iron play also separated the field last year. Those 200-yard par 3s and reachable par 5s call for an exact approach from long range. Tiger was the best long iron player of all-time. You better believe he's going to create a layout that will test that specific skill. Those greens are also some of the most difficult on the course when it comes to hitting the correct quadrant or section. I was amazed at the level of scoring on the longer holes last year. All of this is happening at sea level. There's no carry assistance. Fact is, give these guys a large landing area and they are going to gain extra yardage. From there it's just target practice at this level. Time for the research to get tested. We have had plenty of contenders this fall on the men's and women's side. Let's take that momentum and close out win 11 this week. Outright Winners - World Wide Technology Championshipβ Halfway homeThe LPGA has just three events left on their 2024 schedule. Up next is the LOTTE Championship on the island of O'ahu, Hawaii. The twelfth edition of this LPGA tournament, this is the first time it will be played in the late fall. After four weeks in Asia, the tour returns to the states with one goal in mind; qualify for the CME Group Tour Championship. The LOTTE is just one of two regular season events left. The current CME points list is linked here: βCME Top 60β. With $4 million for first place and an $11 million dollar purse, you really do not want to miss it. To put it in perspective, Nelly Korda has won six times this season and she only has $3.6 million in the bank! We quickly have to transition from early AM golf to PM golf. The ladies will be playing in primetime as they stop halfway home in the middle of the Pacific. This event has moved a couple times during its history. The current venue is Hoakalei Country Club. We first saw HCC in 2022 when Hyo Joo Kim won at 11 under par. Grace Kim survived a three-way sudden death playoff to capture that crown at 12 under par. Hoakalei provides a tough test. Only 37 women finished under par in 2023 and just 25 in 2022. You better bring a well-rounded skill set to this island layout designed by Ernie Els in 2009. LOTTE Championship starts in...Third time is a charmFor the third year in a row, the LPGA comes to Hoakalei Country Club. A par 72 layout covering 6,536 yards, players must avoid a ton of trouble. The course has 112 bunkers (!) and 14 holes have water in play. When those trade-winds get whipping, keeping the ball safe is priority number one. The forecast looks ideal as temperatures will climb into the mid 80s each day and there is no rain on the radar. Each afternoon those winds will blow in the 16-20 mph range. Unless you have played island golf, it is tough to describe how persistent the wind can be. A 16-20 mph forecast will feel like 20-25 mph with no protection out on the island. The LPGA starts on WEDNESDAY this week! Get those bets in ASAP they are on Hawaii time. Watching this event the last two years, you can really see what the women were experiencing. These ladies aren't working with 185 mph of ball speed. Toss a seven iron up in the air and it will get blown around. Trajectory control will be key, especially during those afternoon tee times. Wall to wall paspalum covers the agronomy. In a unique symmetry of sorts, the men and women this week are both playing on that spongy seaside grass. The average green size is pretty healthy at 7,500 sq/ft. It almost has to be when you consider all of the trouble that awaits just off the putting surfaces. The scorecard won't worry you on paper. The average par 3 is 159 yards, par 4 382 yards, and par 5 520 yards. Nine of the 10 par 4s are under 400 yards. At first glance you would think this is a birdiefest much like the last four tournaments we just watched. Then you see the scores and say maybe there's a reason why it looks easy on paper. The elements play a huge role this week and will control the competition. If you have played HCC, please note the tournament committee has changed the routing. Take a look at the championship course.
Scramble formatThe LOTTE is a sneaky great event on the LPGA schedule. Most golf fans love some serious carnage, and the last two years at Hoakalei has held up its end of the bargain. The Big Easy did not make this course easy and when you add the wind element it just gets even more entertaining. I know the LPGA barely breaks through mainstream media mid-season, and there's this thing called football, but if you see it on in the evening check it out. The women will be battling this week as the average winning score is 12 under par. If the wind gets any stronger than what they are predicting, getting to double digits will be a challenge. Comparing the last two top 10s, I found a couple of serious trends we can use to our advantage. Hoakalei is one of the most well-balanced strokes gained tests on tour outside of the majors. Contenders need all four primary skills working to climb the leaderboards. The average gain off the tee by the leaders is just over two strokes on the field. Two inches of paspalum rough aren't going to scare anyone. When you start to see any of those 112 bunkers and all of the water your driver follow through might get a little shorter. Start steering it around and you'll be in those places you're trying so desperately to avoid. The last two top 10s only hit and average of 75% of their fairways. A value that is always much higher, it speaks to the challenge of catching fairways with a ton a trade-winds. Those same players hit an average of 71% of their GIRs. That's a low number as well. With so many short par 4s, most women will have a wedge in hand attacking these hole locations. Trajectory control with high lofted irons is key to competing at a high level this week. Strokes gained approach carries the largest influence as those same ladies gained an average of four strokes on the field with their iron game over the past two years. I'll mention those par 4s again. Par 4 scoring held the strongest correlation to success of the three par categories. An average of six women who finished inside the top 10 the last two years were also inside the top 10 for par 4 scoring. Survive the 3s, score on the 5s, and separate with the 4s is a saying that really fits. Making birdies on the 4s requires paspalum putting. This grainy grass is not for everyone. Our agronomy expertise always comes in handy on weeks like the LOTTE. We can determine the best paspalum putters and tail them. Part of excelling on the putting surfaces has to do with around the green acumen. Paspalum is a tricky grass to chip from. The best island players have positive experience scoring from close range. The last two top 10s gained an average of two strokes on the field, and they were 70% successful in their scrambling efforts. Seventy percent is well above the tour average. This key is really the edge we will use this week to finalize our betting card. There will be some windy moments and when you miss targets, players will need to save par. Some of these short par 4s are also close enough for pitching on approach. Architects always have tendencies. Elite player architects tend to shape their settings in line with their skill sets. Ernie Els was an incredible short game artist. There's no doubt this week's winner will need to show some of that skill herself. Outright winners - LOTTE Championship
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