Saturday, Round 3

"After finishing bogey, bogey, bogey on Thursday, I was pretty upset. That's an understatement. Talked to Caroline, texted with her, and she basically told me like, you know, you're over there, and I'm good at home. Like, we're good. You need to be where your feet are. I think that was really what I needed to hear in that moment. It's probably what I didn't want to hear, but I needed to hear it." - Sam Burns talking to his wife after Round 1.

For the second day in a row, we grabbed a H2H win over Bryson DeChambeau. Saturday's live card was a perfect 3-0, and we are now 5-1 on live bets. The leaderboard gravity, usually saved for a Sunday afternoon, was the theme of Round 3 at the Open Championship. Only Sam Burns and Si Woo Kim made a move from inside the top 10. Ryan Fox, Eric Cole, Xander Schauffele, and Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen all posted great rounds from further back. With three 62s already carded at Royal Birkdale this week, Burns will need to remain on fire. RTL readers know what’s at stake. Stay calm, and Sam on.

Round 3 summary:

• Leader: -10, Sam Burns (73-62-65)
  • Sam's last 36-holes are lowest back-to-back total (127) in major championship history.
  • There are 49 players under par after 54-holes.
• Scoring average:
  • Rd 3: +0.26
  • First nine scoring average: -0.05, back nine: +0.31 (+0.36)
  • Morning wave: -0.42, afternoon wave: +0.90 (+1.32)
• Strokes gained T2G leaders through three rounds:
  • Sam Burns, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Ryan Gerard, Ludvig Åberg, Alex Fitzpatrick, Si Woo Kim, Kazume Kobori
• Betting favorites after Round 3:
  • Burns (+142), Kim (+465), Fox (+790), DeChambeau (+1400), Gerard (+1450), Åberg (+1475), Herbert (+1750), Scheffler (+2600)
• Conditions: We haven't seen or felt any rain, but the greens definitely did heading into Saturday. Temperatures barely reached 70 degrees, and the wind was mild at 10-15 mph out of the northwest. A perfect day for The Open Championship, Ryan Fox and Sam Burns took advantage.

Observations:

Between the lines...

• I was shocked by the crowd’s reaction to Bryson DeChambeau, cheering him on rather than giving him a hard go of it. Bryson needed this. With fellow players flocking to the media scrum upset with yesterday’s shenanigans, DeChambeau has the crowd behind him, which we know he loves to use as fuel. Four back on Sam Burns and 2 shots behind second place, Bryson’s definitely got a chance, and for his backers there is reason for optimism. - Joe Idone
• Round by round, Bryson's iron game is declining. Sam Burns is first in SG: APP and we saw it today creating so many scoring chances. For Bryson (or anyone else) to make a run in the final round, they will need to be on fire on approach. Here are the best iron players through three rounds.
  • Sam Burns, Jon Rahm, Alex Noren, Keegan Bradley, Hennie du Plessis, Alex Smalley, Corey Conners
• "I think this was -- I think it was insole. My insole, I brought the new one, like coming in last week. It wasn't hurting much last week, and it started killing me the last couple days. Yeah, somehow I eat some Advil, it gets better. Hopefully gets better tomorrow." Si Woo Kim on his blisters.
• I would just be worried about Si Woo's scrambling. From close range Kim has been getting it done along with this list of ARG aficionados through 54-holes.
  • Peter Uihlein, Fransisco Molinari, Si Woo Kim, Ryan Gerard, Hideki Matsuyama, Jackson Suber
• I’m confident that Si Woo's precision is going nowhere. Kim’s got terrific hands when scrambling is required, and the putter has been quite cooperative this week. He’s my best chance to hit a winner tomorrow, and he’s put himself in this position enough this year to understand the nerve needed to win. Time to strike! - Joe Idone
• "I think what am I, 5-under? Lead is, I reckon, 10 maybe, 9 or 10? So we'll see. There's great rounds out there around this golf course, which is good to know. I think it's incredible how the conditions change morning to afternoon. You sit there in the morning and you're watching these scores, and it's just not possible in the afternoon." Tommy Fleetwood on assessing how far back is too far back?

Joe is on Si Woo Kim, and RTL has Sam Burns, but don't overlook Ryan Fox. Fox won twice on the PGA TOUR last year and has four career DP World Tour victories. With so many low rounds already recorded, it could be another contender. Sam will need to continue scoring if we are to grab our second outright win in as many weeks.

Live Betting - The Open Championship

Sunday card: C. Gotterup over P. Cantlay (-125 FD) C. Conners over J. Keefer (-130 BM) P. Reed over A. Scott (-125 FD)

* - Odds can change from site to site. Make sure you shop around before making each bet. Even though a bet is listed, it may have changed since the newsletter was published. FanDuel (FD), Caesars (CS), DraftKings (DK), BetMGM (BM), bet365 (B3), Bet Rivers (BR), ESPNBet (EB), Fanatics (FA)

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