Aaronimink

Aaron Rai had a 1.9% chance of winning the PGA Championship when he made the turn on Sunday. Everyone knows I love competitive chaos, and Aronimink achieved it. Congratulations to Rai and his entourage, the PGA of America, and the MVPs of last week, the members of Aronimink Golf Club. Excluding Augusta National, I cannot think of another instance where a club membership spent years preparing to host a professional tournament. AGC planned for the best the men's game had to offer and came out on top. One can only hope that future clubs take notice, work with their governing association, and continue to create similar events. Those tournaments don't all have to be single-digit winners, but the members made the greater golf world covet their club, and that has to be a blueprint going forward.

Aaron Rai was ranked 34th in the Golf Digest Power Rankings. Approximately +27500 (275-1) to win, he is one of three major championship winners who played their final 10 holes in 6 under par (or better). The first non-American to win the PGA Championship in 10 years (Jason Day, 2015), and the first European since 2014 (Rory McIlroy). Not since The Masters started (1934) have two Europeans won the season's first two major championships. It's like we cannot wake up from a Bethpage nightmare. With scores of 70-69-67-65, Rai became the first Wannamaker winner to improve his score in each round. Aaron came close, but no player in the field fired four rounds in the 60s. Another testament to Aronimink and Kerry Haigh's team, the 108th PGA Championship was proof that playing GOLF is why we all love this game. Leave it to a guy with two gloves and iron covers to save the PGA.

Speaking of iron covers, the PGA TOUR moves on to the CJ CUP Byron Nelson. Boy, that just rolls off the tongue. Four of the top 50 players in the OWGR are heading to Dallas to compete for $10.3 million. A field of 147 players will be cut to the top 65 and ties after 36 holes. The winner? They will receive all of the usual TOUR perks along with a check for $1.854 million.

CJ Cup Byron Nelson starts in...

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Weiskopf Wadkins

The average winning score in the first five editions of the Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch is 25.6 under par. One of the top 5 easiest venues on the PGA TOUR, the club and TOUR stepped in and performed a $22 million renovation. Lanny Wadkins took on the challenge of trying to slow down the world's best players. The result on paper is a par 71 scorecard that stretches 7,385 yards. That's 184 yards shorter than last year. Seven holes were substantially changed, and the most dramatic is the closing hole. What was a 552-yard par 5, is now a 480-yard par 4 with a substantial approach shot over water. Will Wadkins' work make a difference? Most of the $22M was spent underground and on agronomy. The renovation had two primary goals: to make the golf course more strategic and improve the course conditions. As we saw last week, the two ways to slow these guys down are firm conditions and weather. Aronimink had both, creating a perfect scoring storm. Had we witnessed a wet week in Philadelphia, the storylines would have been drastically different.

The Southeast breeze will make the final three holes play into the wind. The course needs every headwind it can get to slow these guys down as the strategic improvements to the layout make it look better, but I'm not confident it will keep the winning score out of the mid-20s. Vegas set the over/under for the final score at 23.5 under par. Lol. The round one leader over/under is 62.5! The one element that threw everyone off last week was Aronimink's o/u, -12.5. It turned out the line brokers were pretty sharp and had a better idea of what the weather would do. The upgrade to Bentgrass greens, Zoysia fairways and surrounds, 78 bunkers, and 11 holes with water in play are still not enough to keep Scottie Scheffler and friends from going super low. Scheffler finished at 31 under par last year and won by eight! His odds are +175 by the way. To finish inside the top 10 a year ago, it took 17 under par. The average cutline over the first five years at the Ranch is five under par.

How will the renovation possibly make a difference? In reality, it won't make a big difference. Put lipstick on a pig, and I'm still not going to take her to the prom. Moving a couple of green complexes closer to the water, rearranging some bunkers so players are forced to think slightly more often on the tee box, is not substantially going to change the DNA of this golf course. Ten holes carried a scoring average under par. The course scoring average is -2.35 (per round). Even though a majority of the approach shots come from 175-225 yards, the greens are quite flat, and TPC Craig Ranch is one of the easiest courses to get up and down if you miss a green. Which players generally do not miss, since the average GIR rate is 70% for the field. The firmness we may witness this week could lower the field's success rate, but overall, not enough to make a substantial difference. Once the field does hit the green, players historically make more putts than the PGA TOUR average. Here's an area I could see some change in the final score.

If we take a step back, Lanny Wadkins’ design portfolio is small. There's very little to support that the changes Wadkins made will make TPC Craig Ranch any harder. Making the average par 3, 4, and 5 shorter may even make the course easier. It took an incredible confluence of conditions and championship choices by the Aronimink membership to keep that final score in the single digits. The PGA Championship is over, and we're back to the PGA TOUR. The 147 players in the field are going to attack this place. They have to, how else will you beat the guy who won by eight shots last year? Get ready for another 23-24 under-par shoot-out in Texas.

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How to win?

Does the renovation change the skill set needed to win the Byron Nelson? The short answer is no. Let's break it down.

The renovation changed par on two holes. The twelfth hole is now a par 5 (again). That will certainly improve the scoring average, as it was a 493-yard par 4. The closing eighteenth is the other scorecard alteration from a scorable par 5 to a 480-yard par 4. In doing so, this does not dramatically change the fabric of what it takes T2G to excel here. In fact, the winners have gained an average of 11.6 strokes T2G on the field in the year they won. Those winners gain an average of seven strokes on approach, and the approach ranges are the same. Yes, you changed the par on two holes, but you still have a long par 4 approach and a par 5 to attack in two. Will the changes to the agronomy and firmness of new surfaces make it harder to hold the greens? Yes, but this is one of the easiest courses on TOUR to get up and down. Focus on the 175-225 range on approach. Three of the four par 3s are over 200 yards. Grabbing players who can separate themselves over 200 yards is important. It helps on the par 5s, and when it comes to handling the longer par 4s.

TPC Craig Ranch has one of the lowest penalties for missing the fairway on the PGA TOUR. Part of the agronomy upgrade was enhancing the rough. This may impede two or three approaches throughout the round, but the field will still use driver on 11 of the 14 tee shots (minimum). Some may swing it even more. Length plays a role, but overall, and after the renovation, there will be a bunch of average drivers of the golf ball near the top of this leaderboard. Seven of the top 12 one year ago were outside the top 25 in SG: OTT for the week. Can a great driver separate at TPC Craig Ranch? Yes, a great driver can separate anywhere, but the iron game and putter will be far more impactful. Over the last five years at The Ranch, the results slightly favored accuracy over length.

Brand new Bentgrass greens will be firm on approach, but they will roll pure. For the first time all season, we have two Bentgrass courses in a row! Over the past five years, the winner has gained 3.5 strokes on the field with their flatstick in four of them. Putts can be made here, and unlike Aronimink, we want aggressive players with the putter in hand. Guys who are not afraid of the three-foot comeback. Each distance range in five-foot increments, starting at five feet, has a higher make percentage than the PGA TOUR average. Putting is the secret sauce this week. While most are attracted to the T2G numbers, making an average of 28 birdies or better by the winners at The Ranch is significant. The big difference between last week and the CJ Cup is that a player can pop with the putter here. Tough to find your stroke/speed at AGC. I'm leaning heavier on the putter this week than I have in years past. The brand new greens and drier conditions coming in tell me the best putters will have an advantage.

As far as comp leaderboards, I like TPC Scottsdale, Vidanta Vallarta, and El Cardonal. All three scoring havens, those who can keep the pace of 5.5 under par per round, will contend. With so few elite players in the field, I'm leaning much more into course history than usual. TPC Craig Ranch is not a tough course to learn by any means, but the confidence a PGA TOUR player has when he is proven to perform on a course is significant. You don't have to be a three- or four-time vet of The Ranch, but it helps. As you build out a card with 10+ names, and DFS lineups, it will matter. Par 4 scoring as a par 71 is important. Not to mention, an aggregate analytic like scoring on the 4s shows how much a player can adapt to the course. The 4s range from 320 to 500+ yards. A player who can score on all of them is attractive.

Philly fatigue is a thing. I'm staying away from guys who we know are in great form, but went through the mental meat grinder at Aronimink as a contender. Those were four very difficult days, and if a player was good for 3 rounds, or had the week off and was good at Myrtle Beach, I don't mind it at all. Does that mean Scottie won't play well? No, he will. The only reason Scheffler lost at The PGA was his putter. Plan on a top 5 finish or better here. With that in mind, I’m sticking to the (with) Scheffler market and playing aggressively just like our outrights.

Outright Winners - CJ Cup Byron Nelson

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