Brian's Song 🏌
PLAYERS perspectivePONTE VEDRA BEACH, FL My first on-site PLAYERS Championship experience for RTL was in 2022. Cam Smith won in one of the wildest weeks of weather the tournament has ever witnessed. The PGA TOUR finished round two on Sunday that year! Watching this event evolve inside the ropes has completely changed my perspective on the championship. It never hurts to have the world number one win twice, and Rory McIlroy take home his second Gold Man Trophy in a playoff. If you are going to elevate an event, the devil is in the details. Everything from the agronomy to the player experience keeps getting better at TPC Sawgrass. In doing so, the winners have even evolved their game. The Stadium Course is a complete test of golf. After watching golf over the weekend at API, I came to the following conclusion: Bay Hill is a great preview for THE PLAYERS. I arrived in Ponte Vedra Beach on Sunday, three days before Rory (lol). From finding Jake Knapp to measuring the rough, RTL's report from Ponte Vedra Beach contains a collection of what we like to call cash factors. Those little edges our coverage has become famous for. Let's get to it. THE PLAYERS Championship starts in...Stadium seatingThe rumors of TPC Sawgrass's rough are not exaggerated. I don't carry a ruler (on the course), but it's real. This is one of those examples where the TOUR has really stepped up. It has been historically cold in Ponte Vedra Beach through January and February, and the course is impeccable. Winter growing conditions have caused agronomic drama at several TOUR venues in 2026. Chipping off tight, sparse lies is no fun. The turf on the Stadium Course is not the story. The par 72 scorecard was lengthened to 7,352 yards last year. The twenty-third longest course on TOUR in 2025, it is still 20 yards shorter than the PGA TOUR average. Since the move to March, the weather has played more of a starring than a supporting role. Pay special attention to the forecast summary below and use those real-time links! The average winning score since the move back to March in 2019 is 15.3 under par. Vegas set the winning score over/under at -15.5 under par. The average cutline in March is 1.2 over par. We received a little rain on Sunday evening and nothing since. With a Precision-Air system under the putting surfaces, the TOUR is able to give us Bay Hill-like firmness, without the crust. This place is tuned up, and it makes sense. If you are making a bid to become golf's fifth major, you’d better provide a healthy examination. Whether that mandate came down from the top or not is irrelevant; the players are feeling it. Commentary around the practice areas is palpable; the guys feel it will be a tough week even without the wind and rain. We will all be inundated with past champion trends, and they all make sense. What I'm looking for on the range is hyper-elite approach play. The average green size is 5,500 sq/ft. Overseeded with Poa Trivialis, these putting greens are perfect. Maybe that's why our recent winners average 22 sub-par scores per win. The field has 123 players, the OWGR's best, all competing for a $25 million purse. The PGA TOUR’s richest prize is $4.5 million for first place and 750 FedEx Cup points. I mention the points for a couple of reasons. If you are a player like Justin Thomas who started his season late, this is a good week to catch up. Let's say you are Brooks Koepka in pursuit of signature status, play well, and take advantage of the added points. Motivation comes in many forms for these guys. The average winner's pre-tournament odds since the move back to March are +1500. What's most interesting about that trend is that as the weather became more unpredictable in the early spring, the favorites kept winning. The highest pre-tourney odds for our winner since 2019 are Cam Smith at +3000 in 2022. Fourteen rookies are in the field along with seven past champions. Will Rory or Scottie become the first player to win three PLAYERS Championship trophies? Keep reading below to gauge their chances. Read The Line media ⤵️How to win?It is Wednesday morning, and I still haven't seen Rory McIlroy. Not that the defending champion needs a ton of preparation for a course he has conquered twice in the last seven years, but a little prep work would make all Rory backers feel better. Can Scottie Scheffler regain his approach acumen on the PGA TOUR's most precision-based test? It's not looking good for the two massive favorites in Ponte Vedra Beach. For the first time in a few years, the field has a chance, and you can sense it around the clubhouse and practice facilities. Based upon that optimism, what will it take to grab the Gold Man statue... We want the best approach players. If you're new to RTL weekly narratives, I very rarely filter my statistical analysis over long periods of time. For example, measuring strokes gained approach over 20-24 rounds and not 50. What have you done for me lately? As a PGA coach, I know recent form seldom surprises us on a Sunday afternoon. TPC Sawgrass measures approach ability in a couple of ways. The last six winners have gained a minimum of six (or more) strokes on the field with their irons. In a field that is this deep, where can a contender separate? The four par 3s are a great place to start. Play those even par or better this week, and you will gain on your competition. Another reason the 3s are tough is their orientation. All four of them face in a different direction. When the wind kicks up around the Stadium Course, hitting the green from a tee box lie is imperative. The four par 5s and a couple of the positional par 4s call for a high leverage approach. Those are moments the winner will differentiate themselves throughout the four rounds. I cannot stress this enough; great approach players win this event. There are an infinite number of examples where a player has the putter get hot, and they win. Look at Akshay last week. Bhatia gained +16 strokes on the field at API with his putter and short game. Contenders at TPC Sawgrass and majors enter the Sunday conversation with their iron game. Cover both ends of the spectrum at Sawgrass, and you'll have a fighting chance with three holes to play on Sunday. The putter influence at THE PLAYERS has evolved over the years. Recent winners have done more T2G than with the flatstick. Most pundits will miss this, but I'm concerned with three-putt avoidance. The field average is 62% for adding an extra stroke on the greens. The greens are small, and that's why this skill filter gets missed, but Dye's design has so many shelves and tiers, guys leave themselves six to eight footers for par. Slide away from the green ever so slightly, and you haven't lost my attention. I was focused on around the green acumen at Bay Hill, and my sights are set there again. Ninety-two bunkers dot the landscape. I chose that description for a specific reason: Pete put the smallest sand traps around this routing. Handling the myriad of lies and turf textures requires a baseline of above-average skill with a wedge. Is around the green aptitude the most important player attribute needed to win, absolutely not, but this well-rounded test does require and above average floor. Similar to Bay Hill, in walking around, I have noticed the rough gets deeper the closer you approach the hole. Forget the areas with mounds; the dips between those chocolate drops are lush and even longer. Since the move back to March, the winner's average strokes gained T2G is +12 strokes on the field. Some tournaments have spike winners, but to average into the double digits is impressive. Take away Cam Smith's driver debacle in 2022, and the T2G average by the winner jumps to 13.8! Much like the bi-polar nature of the approach test on the Stadium Course, you must have a great birdie-to-bogey ratio. That's another number that just doesn't happen from one week to the next. Building a solid scoring ratio comes from the ability to avoid bogeys and convert scoring chances. Walking the line between aggressive play and knowing when to settle (or scramble) for par. I believe that attribute gets overlooked. Many times, we just measure overall scoring potential by a player's BoB%. Getting the most out of each round is imperative on the Stadium Course. There will be stretches when you struggle. The guys, who week after week maintain a positive scoring ratio, are good at TPC Sawgrass. Other analytics to search for are par 4 scoring and driving accuracy. Hitting fairways is where I will close this narrative. The fairways are lined with lush rough. It's not just the ground that determines who ends up in the short grass. Scottie Scheffler mentioned this in his press conference. Many of the tee shots at TPC Sawgrass force you to shape the ball. THE PLAYERS is a complete test, not just because you use every club in the bag, but also because you are forced to shape the ball in multiple directions with several shots. The Stadium Course is the most demanding course I have ever played off the tee. It challenges you in the air and on the ground. Total drivers of the golf ball own a serious edge on the field. Approach play will get you far in this tournament, only if you can attack from the fairway. Many questions surround the top of this field. I’m sticking with the best players from 2026. Guys who have proven that are incredibly confident and locked in on their approach game. Some of these names will be similar to Bay Hill, and the others caught our attention last week. The API has become more and more of a precursor venue for THE PLAYERS. The last nine winners of the TOUR's flagship event finished T22 or better in their previous start. We know who those players are, and that's where we will start our outright list for THE PLAYERS. Outright Winners - THE PLAYERS ChampionshipRTL Weekly Editorials 📰Do you want to be a better bettor?Become a member of Read The Line today!
Think you have a gambling problem? Reach out for help. Read The line promotes responsible gaming. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit these online resources: |
​