Challenger Series

The average purse size for a FedEx Cup Fall Series event is $6.3 million. The average field size is approximately 120 players, and the average winner's check is $1.1 million. If you are wondering what the 2028 Challenger Series is going to look like, pay attention to the fall schedule. Zero players in the top 50 of the OWGR are in Southampton, Bermuda, for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Even though many of the world's best men are not in attendance, the winner will receive a ton of FEC Points and a two-year exemption on the PGA Tour. That exemption also places the winner on the Championship Series Tour when it begins in 2028. There is some serious value available to those out in the Atlantic Ocean. The opportunity is not just available for those at the top of the betting board. The average pre-tournament odds of the seven previous Butterfield winners are +8800. Five of the seven trophy winners were over 80-1! Adam Schenk is our defending champion, and he putted with one hand last year on his way to victory. One hand! If all of that rhetoric hasn't whetted your appetite for this week's PGA Tour event, I guarantee the forecast will.

Pay attention to the tournament start, Bermuda is one hour ahead of east cost time!

Butterfield Bermuda Championship starts in...

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Bermuda triangle

Is Port Royal Golf Club a predictive course? Does a member of the 120-man field this week have a better chance of winning the Butterfield if they have already played Port Royal and contended? Statistically, our mid-ocean venue is annually one of the top 5 most predictive hosts on the PGA Tour. So is this now officially the Vince Whaley Open? Whaley has four straight top 8 results. Understanding how sticky a course can be is an interesting conversation. Three of the seven winners finished inside the top 18 in Bermuda prior to winning. The other three who had a chance to play Port Royal at least once did not finish inside the top 25 before their Bermuda win. That leaves Brendon Todd who won the first event in 2019 and cannot be considered. Yes, the same names do tend to contend in Southampton, but does that mean our winner will be one of those course horses? No. Port Royal GC is one, if not the shortest golf course on the PGA Tour. The par 71 scorecard measures a mere 6,828 yards. Three par 5s share a 45% birdie rate, while this collection of par 3s is one of the toughest sets on the Tour at an average length of 208 yards. Three of the 3s, 8, 13, and 16 are extremely exposed to the elements which only increases the difficulty.

So will that forecast make Port Royal GC any more or less predictive? Wall-to-wall Bermuda grass covering the course with an average green size of 8,000 sq/ft. Twenty-one acres of fairway grass winds its way through 87 bunkers and seven holes where water, or the ocean, comes into play. One detail I find interesting under normal conditions is the fairways favor a left-to-right ball flight. Nine of the 14 tee shots move in that direction. The average winning score is 18 under par, and the annual cutline for the top 65 and ties is -1.7 under par. Prior to Schenk's winning score of 12 under par in 2025, the previous three winners were 19 under par or lower. Weather will keep this Bermuda birdie contest under control, and avoiding bogeys will be a coveted player characteristic. There will be some predictability based upon the year-after-year similarity of the layout. Players who have proven they can conquer these greens and score will continue to do so. Using a "predictive" mindset will get you to the weekend, but once the weather comes in, relying on just those usual suspects will be a mistake. We need to diversify the card with players who fit the skillset along with those who have proven their play at Port Royal. By taking a careful combination of both across our complete card, we have the best overall chance for success.

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How to win?

The Butterfield Bermuda field hit 60% of their GIRs and 53% of their fairways in 2025. Both are well below the Tour average. Last year was a decent comp because the weekend weather will be quite similar. Speaking of comps, let's list a few courses we can use to help beat the books in Bermuda. Adam Schenk has finished runner-up at Innisbrook and Colonial CC. Throw those two courses on our comp list. Sedgefield CC is a great Bermuda test along with the resort courses at Sea Island. One more tournament host that posts a similar field is the Dunes Club in Myrtle Beach. Those leaderboards along with the seven prior tournaments at Port Royal GC will give us a great start. The average par 4 length at PRGC is 402 yards. Six of the 11 par 4s are under 400 yards in length. It's one thing to have one (or two) reachable par 4s on a course, but 10+ wedge approach shots? Players who have proven they can score on these "less than driver" layouts are the primary focus.

I know this sounds like a wedgefest, and it is, but don't forget a few of these high leverage approach opportunities the players face throughout the round. Where can these guys separate from the field? If everyone can (and will) knock their wedges inside 15', how will we determine who stands out? When proximity is not the differentiating factor, then something else is. Sticking with iron play, three 200+ par 3s and three par 5s give the field six opportunities to hit an important long iron. Those long iron moments are what I would like to point out. Butterfield contenders continually use these six approach shots to differentiate from their peers. Who are the best par 3 players from 200 to 225 yards? Which guys are great on approach over two bills? Who scores on short par 5s? By digging into these categories and comparing those lists with the best wedge wizards creates a complete group of early outright targets. Then compare those names with the comp courses inventory. Are we starting to see some trends?

If driving accuracy is low and many players use less than driver off the tee, maybe this is an area to reduce some of our attention and statistical weight. Take the usual driving focus and place it on around-the-green acumen instead. Even at 8,000 sq/ft, players miss these putting surfaces. Toss in a 25 mph crosswind, and they definitely will. Once that happens, who can save strokes from the bushy Bermuda grass rough? It takes a certain level of short game talent and experience in that gnarled weed to become proficient. This and putting are the two primary skills that keep these leaderboards consistent. Forty-four greenside bunkers only add to the difficulty of gaining strokes on the field around the green. Look at the list of winners. Herbert, Gay, Todd, and Power are all very good SG: ARG players. If there's a DNA to winning at Port Royal, short game is definitely part of the genome.

Bermuda grass putting is another essential element. I realize Schenk won last year by putting with one hand, but navigating these grainy greens is important. An affinity for Bermuda grass putting is important, but I don't believe it is 100% required. The greens will be slow and express tons of grain movement. Tournament officials cannot speed these things up with the wind forecast. Slow grainy greens bring in an element of luck. Luck means more guys have an opportunity to putt well. I believe the ball striking baseline is where we start, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see another below-average putter win. That's not to say this is a true no-putt week. Instead, there is a window where one player can score with his flatstick even if the recent trend doesn't display a bunch of positive numbers. A career resume of Bermuda grass birdies helps, but overall putting aptitude falls below my weight on approach and short game.

Surviving the par 3s and scoring on the par 5s is the strategy needed to win. The four par 3s have a combined scoring average of +0.58 over par as a group. Conversely, the par 5s produce a -1.1 score relative to par. The final three par 3s require flighted long irons into crazy green complexes. The three toughest have an elevated tee box. Sitting high above the green on 8, 13, and 16 does not give competitors confidence. Eight and 13 generally play into the wind, and the 235-yard sixteenth sits adjacent to the ocean. With a strong west wind, players face a huge crosswind. At least the wind is blowing their ball toward the land. That's better than going out to sea! Bogey avoidance, birdie-to-bogey ratio, approach putting on 8k-sized greens, and scrambling are all part of the second-tier examination needed to figure this out. I know Sundays in the fall are for football, but keep an eye on Bermuda. The island is one hour ahead of east coast time. They will start early to get out of the way, so pay attention as Sunday's forecast should create appointment viewing.

Outright Winners - Butterfield Bermuda Championship

LPGA

Hye jinks

Hye Jin Choi held a three-shot lead over Ruoning Yin with 12 holes to play in the final round. Yin was buoyed by the home crowd and fired a back nine 32 (-4) and won the Buick LPGA by one shot over RTL's Hye Jin Choi. Choi was the first-round leader and every night following until the tenth hole in the final round where Yin tied the 27-year-old trying to close out her first LPGA win. Yin started the week 9-1 while Hye Jin presented some value at 28-1. We almost slipped by the hometown favorite and 2024 Buick winner. It was early morning disappointment for RTL readers as Choi now gives us six LPGA second places and 13 runner-up finishes overall in 2026. A brutal beat, it's time to move on to South Korea and the BMW Ladies Championship.
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A field of 84 women head back to one of my favorite new venues on either tour in 2025. Pine Beach Golf Links sits along the southwest coast of South Korea. Fourteen of the top 25 in the Rolex World Rankings are competing alongside 15 players from the KLPGA and one sponsor's invite. That leaves 68 women from the LPGA to compete in a four-round, 72-hole no-cut event for $2.3 million and a winner's check for $352,500. One of the finer fall events on the Asia swing this week draws a few of the tour's elite to the other side of the Pacific. Including this weekend, only four events remain on the schedule before the cutoff for CME Points. The top 60 play the Tour Championship, so if you are in this limited field, it is time to take advantage!

The LPGA is still across the Pacific Ocean for THREE more weeks, the golf starts on Wednesday night!

A day at the beach

Pine Beach Golf Links is a stunning golf setting in the southwest region of South Korea. A mere 368 miles across the Yellow Sea from Shanghai, this 27-hole facility is home to the Pine, Beach, and Ocean nines. The LPGA will use the Pine-Beach routing for the BMW. The names for each nine give the setting away, as PBGL could be easily confused with Pebble Beach Golf Links. Seriously, wait until you see this spectacular setting on television. An amazing addition to the competitive calendar last year, BMW has once again given us a tremendous venue. The par 72 layout covers 6,785 yards for the competition. Nine holes are framed with water, and the players will see 89 bunkers across the 18-hole composite course. The terrain is crazy in this part of the country. Pine Beach is bordered by beaches on the west side and steep hills on the east. Have clubs and will travel… send us on a plane immediately; holes 14 through 17 rides along the shoreline and are absolutely stunning. Many of the women did not get distracted by the beautiful beach setting. Sei Young Kim took home the trophy with a 24 under par total. Kim won by four strokes over Nasa Hataoka, but everyone in the final top 10 was 15 under or better.

The BMW Ladies was a strong outright event for RTL in 2025. All four pre-tournament outrights finished in the top 10! A Lim Kim finished in third place, and our very own Hye Jin Choi found herself in seventh place after 72 holes. Can we go there again…? The picturesque setting is wall-to-wall Zoysia grass for the fairways, tees, approaches, and rough, with Bentgrass greens. The tournament favorite is the defending champion, Sei Young Kim (+950). An interesting choice as two-time major champion from this past summer, Haeran Ryu, is also in the field. Ryu is also South Korean and an incredible fit for this accuracy arena. Aki Iwai, Hyo Joo Kim, and Hataoka round out the top 5 favorites. The Pine-Beach combination gives us your standard allotment of four par 3s and 5s, and 10 par 4s. This event has moved a couple of times in its brief seven-year history. Coincidentally, the BMW in this version began in 2019; the same year as the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Kim recorded 26 birdies and two eagles in 72 holes last year. Finishing 40% of your holes with sub-par scores is pretty impressive. Sei Young's opening 10 under par 62 set the pace, and she never looked back. Kim was kind of disappointing last week, finishing eighteenth in Shanghai. In any case, with six par 4s under 400 yards and four par 5s, our 2026 winner will not only need to score but also survive Mother Nature as well.

How to win?

If you didn't look last year, or are just getting introduced to Pine Beach GL for the first time, do yourself a favor and check this golf course out online. It is a stunning golf setting. The juxtaposition of mountains and shoreline gives us a spectacular routing. I fear the weather will take center stage in South Korea. Much like what the men will face in the Atlantic, cool temps, strong wind, and wet weather are a nasty combination. To compound the effect, the LPGA stars do not have the same ball speed as most of the men. Once they start launching balls into the wind, it could get ugly. Naturally, the women will not reach the same apex as the men, which will help keep the ball lower and less influenced. The best game plan starts with getting after the Pine nine. There's only one par 4 on the front over 400 yards. Get those sub-par scores in and hold on as you head out to the water on the back. Holes 14 through 18 are going to be a daily highlight reel. As we consider the outright puzzle, I think the first look goes directly toward those women who were here last year. Between the elevation changes and offshore elements, knowing how Pine Beach plays under normal conditions will dramatically help your 2026 campaign.
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Sei Young Kim did most of her damage last year with the putter. Looking ahead at the conditions, I believe the flatstick will be your biggest asset again. Six of the Sunday final top 10 gained more than four strokes on the field with their putter. We know Kim made everything she could, but she was not the only one. Any course this close to the coastline cannot have creative green surfaces. You have to keep the greens relatively flat and slow, knowing strong winds can delay play. We saw a ton of putts go in last year, and I expect a bunch more will go in again. Soft surfaces will also be receptive on approach, allowing players who successfully navigate the wind and elevation changes to hit shots close and create birdie chances. Cashing in those four to six-footers will be key, and if the wind does blow, many of them might be to save par rather than record another sub-par score.
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Eight of the top 10 a year ago lost strokes to the field around the green. This may be a bit misleading. Our defending champion hit 85% of her GIRs, which left little opportunity to use her scrambling acumen. Many inside the top 10 hit a ton of greens and fell into the same situation. With the forecast we have, I think disregarding SG: ARG would be a mistake. It is still fourth of the four main strokes gained categories on my list, but due to the weather and turf conditions, this week will be more of a balanced skill set than just a straight scoring fest. Forty-nine greenside bunkers also present a challenge, and I have taken sand play into account. Kim placed it in seven bunkers throughout the week and saved par five times. Short game is not my primary focus, but with the weather, it will surely play a role.
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Past the putter, iron play fueled the top of the leaderboard. Much like Port Royal, Pine Beach puts a number of scoring irons in your hands to attack the greens. Tournament officials will pay attention to the conditions and do their best to keep the playability of the golf course similar to last season. That means tee boxes may be moved up if a hole will play directly into a stiff breeze or vice versa on the downwind tests. In doing so, I expect a similar allotment of wedges and nine irons on the par 4s, and mid-irons to hybrids on the par 3s. There's only one par 4 over 400 yards on the front nine. As far as ball flight, the LPGA does not have Shotlink we can use to study the field like the men. Picking the best low ball flight players is dependent upon our weekly coverage. Thankfully, we know who launches it low and will have an edge in this wind. That's going to be a nice advantage against the books because they won’t be setting odds with that baseline knowledge and that's a great opportunity to grab some value on the board.
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Kim, Hataoka, and Celine Boutier, last year's top 3 hit over 79% of their fairways. Nasa secured 91%! Similar to the reduction in slope on the greens to prepare for coastal challenges, the fairways are wider to receive more tee shots. Watching one year ago, a majority of the players had no issue finding the short grass. To compound the successful pattern, these are Zoysia fairways which tend to grab the ball rather than propel it. With all of the wet weather they have received and more on the way, driving accuracy numbers should be consistent with 2025. The wind may have a slight effect, but overall, I expect a similar breakdown and have not placed much emphasis on OTT. In fact, the increase in ARG weighting comes from a reduction in driving separation.
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With the bump in short game, I'm eyeing the birdie-to-bogey ratio list. Bogey avoidance and BoB% all complement each other and give us a great picture of who can score when conditions are toughest. Par 4 scoring seems like a great target, and with 10 varied tests, it will help refine our list, but I'm giving an edge to par 5 scoring. All four of the par 5s are traditional three-shot holes. Unless officials dramatically move tee boxes, scoring on these lengthy holes will require woods and wedges. If difficult conditions persist, this will be the best place to score. A quick analysis of those who convert sub-par scores on the 5s consistently is a little secret sauce others may not see when they only look at strokes gained and don't consider the entire scoring situation. It is little playability insights like that which lead to so many Sunday contenders. Let's look past our most recent runner-up and focus on the event in front of us. Pine Beach is going to provide us with a ton of entertainment and a bunch of winning tickets.

Outright Winners - BMW Ladies Championship

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