Border Patrol π¨
Border runJust as Ludvig Γ berg grabbed our first win of the year and ran to TGL for his Presidents Day double header (shocker he won both!), we are making a border run of our own south from San Diego. For the fourth year, the PGA TOUR is heading to Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. The Mexico Open at VidantaWorld sounds like a tremendous tourist destination. The forecast looks perfect and after a difficult week at Torrey Pines, who wouldn't love a little grip it and rip it golf? Unfortunately coming off three straight marquee TOUR events and a heavy TGL schedule, the elite have decided it's time for a break before the Florida swing. I'm even in Florida ahead of the TOUR to catch this week's TGL action. Which by the way, was unbelievable. All three matches on Monday either ended in overtime or on the final putt. Golf fans are always asking for shots that have meaning. Sitting inside the SoFi Center, you could feel the pressure. All PGA TOUR players are extremely competitive and to watch them grind over a simulator golf match has me very bullish on where the TGL can take us in the next three to five years. Mexicali bluesThe players are making a shorter commute to Mexico from San Diego. Remember we moved the Genesis from Los Angeles and Riviera Country Club to Torrey Pines. Unfortunately, that didn't help the field strength grow. If anything, this is probably the weakest field we have seen yet for the TOUR sponsored Mexico Open. Four of the top 50 and 26 of the top 100 in the OWGR have made the trek to VidantaWorld. Just because the popular players already migrated east, doesn't mean we cannot cash another big ticket. Our host venue Vidanta Vallarta is becoming more and more predictable as we continue to compete on this course. The skill set is very simple, and thus just begs the question of which players have the correct form coming in. This par 71 sprawling resort course setting covers 7,436 yards. Definitely long by PGA TOUR standards, those who did compete at Torrey will be prepared for this test. Thankfully the rough is approximately half as tall and the fairways are twice as wide as what we saw in San Diego. Fifty-five bunkers protect the playing targets along with water which comes into play onto 13 holes. Jake Knapp was our surprise winner one year ago at 19 under par. I say surprise, because in the two years prior, Tony Finau (2023, -24) and Jon Rahm (2022, -17) were the champions. Both heavy favorites who went off at mid-single digit odds, they made this week seem like we were battling the likes of Scottie Scheffler on the betting board. Good news, Akshay Bhatia is the betting favorite and that means we have a better market for some mid-range and slight longshot candidates. Bhatia was striking the ball beautifully in San Diego finishing in the top 10, but his resume doesn't match Rahm's at this point in his career. For many reasons, watching our defending champion Knapp makes a bunch of sense. I spent a ton of time in Scottsdale at the WMPO watching the PGA TOUR's middle class. I knew that knowledge would be invaluable when it came to this week. Observing these same guys play TPC Scottsdale is also a great comp setting. You can make birdies and bogeys at Vidanta Vallarta like the WMPO. The average winning score is 20 under par and also the line for the tournament over under this week (o/u -20.5). Compare that to an average cutline of just two under par in ALL three editions and you can see there is some trouble in this spacious setting. Though we lack 50 years of history to study like we had at Torrey (or would have had at Riviera), the blueprint at Vidanta Vallarta is becoming quite clear. Bombers have fared very well who carry a hot putter. With the wide range of recent Korn Ferry stars and rookies in this field who play golf with a ton of speed, I guarantee there will be an excellent showdown on the back nine Sunday afternoon. Mexico Open starts in...One major reason we head to Mexico is the weather. The forecast looks pristine compared to what a few of these players dealt with at Torrey Pines. We have no rain in the forecast and temperatures will climb into the mid-80s each day! Perfect golf weather, watch those afternoon tee times as this afternoon southwest wind off the water will cause some concern. We have seen it a couple times over the brief run of this tournament. During rounds one and two each wave gets a turn at the PM wind, but over the weekend our leaders always play in the PM hours. That has opened the door for some serious moving by the morning weekend waves. Something to keep an eye on... The greens average 7,000 sq/ft in size and are covered in Platinum Paspalum grass. No need for an agronomy degree, you can leave that up to me. This spongy seaside or island grain performs on the slow side. If you're a "model" bettor, you'll want to check that box and take players who putt well on slow(er) greens. You will also see this grass everywhere else. In hot, humid, and water climates it grows. Since it acts like a brillo pad, you can get some weird lies in the rough and around the green. Sometimes the ball will sit up and others it may drop to the bottom. Overall, it's a horrible surface to putt on and doesn't play nearly as tough away from the fairway as the rough we are used to. One thing definitely worth mentioning about VidantaWorld is the scorecard. That 7,400+ yard layout has FIVE par 3s, nine par 4s, and four par 5s. Twenty-eight percent of the holes these guys play this week start with an iron off the tee. I'll let that fact focus your mind and help get you prepared for the outright breakdown below. Long week?Many characteristics relating to the skill set needed last week to compete are relevant again. The main difference is the examination is much easier. Vidanta Vallarta won't host many US Opens, but it does require a decent amount of shotmaking to score. The penalty for missing specific landing areas is not as significant as other stops on TOUR, but when 40% of your approach shots are coming in from over 200 yards for a majority of the field, that catches your attention. Long iron play is what made Tiger able to separate from everyone under the most difficult conditions. The same as Scottie Scheffler and Ludvig Γ berg currently. I'm going to count strokes gained approach (APP) and off the tee (OTT) as requirements one A and one B this week. It's tough for me to give one a considerable edge when they are both important. The best long iron players in the field will excel here. Thanks to my PGA eyes and Shotlink, we can predict the contenders. I started with approach for one other reason. Five iron shots from a perfect lie on the tee box will play a major role in determining our outcome. The average strokes gained on par 3s week to week is in the one to two stroke range. Our three Mexico Open winners at Vidanta Vallarta gained an average of five strokes on the field (par 3s) the year they won. With SG:APP accounting for six strokes of their average T2G gains, you can really see a path to success. Jake Knapp gained nine shots on the field on approach and six more on the par 3s! Using Tony Finau and Jon Rahm as an example, those two averaged +5.4 strokes OTT against their opponents. If we just stop at these three categories, we can publish a pretty serious list of contenders. Looking at that list, I have serious scoring questions. Those guys can absolutely flush the golf ball, but can they convert on the greens? Golf is a multifaceted game. Putting is a challenge at the Mexico Open. The percentage of made putts over 5' feet is below the TOUR average. Picking and predicting the correct scorers is really where my observations in the desert recently (and on TOUR in general) become so important. Picking winners is very hard, but building a winning card with RTL research methods is proven. The usual weight I would give to strokes gained around the green I'm going to move toward ball striking and length. The correlation between those two factors and success is too strong. Paspalum is also a fairly easy grass to get up and down from. Just look at the list of winners over the years at Corales and Mayakoba. This blade tends to hold the ball up and it receives the ball well on chips and pitches. Getting it closer is just easier than what these guys generally compete on. Another reason why we move that weight to the ball strikers is the par ranges. The ones which show the most gains.
These are the same three ranges as last week where the conditions were very difficult. As much as pundits will push the longshot narrative this week, can it really happen? The best longshots, we usually play, have much shorter odds. Getting Sam Stevens at +2200 after he was +6600 at Genesis a week ago is a crazy jump. Think of it this way, if we take a field like last week (with all the best players) and Sam is 66-1 after showing some great recent form, that's where he sits on the talent scale. Remove Scottie, Rory, and Ludvig and Stevens doesn't get better, he just has a better chance to win without those guys there! That's a really important distinction. That rationale is why I'm not picking any crazy +20000 longshots in a "weak" field. Our winner is going to come from the middle tier. Jake Knapp is a perfect example of this. The point is, don't spend all of your units on bombs just because the strength of this field is severely lacking. Pick people who you think can finish in the top 5. If they can do that, then you understand the mindset I have for building our Mexico Open betting card. Outright Winners - Mexico Openβ Asia swing #1Please pay attention to the countdown timer below, the ladies are in Asia and start on Wednesday night! A quick week of travel and we begin the early Asia swing on the LPGA schedule. The first event up is the Honda LPGA Thailand. The tournament drew a nice field as seven of the top 10 and 17 of the top 30 in the Rolex World Rankings are competing. Our third event of the season, many of the LPGA women who are competing played in the Ladies European Tour event last week in preparation. Jenno Thitikul picked up where she left off in November by winning in Saudi Arabia. No Nelly in the field, Jeeno is the betting favorite for the Honda at +450!! Thitikul is in her home country and will have tremendous support. Two of the last four winners of the Honda have been from Thailand. If Thitikul dominates the event, I love it. We cannot bet her at that number, but we need someone to challenge Nelly in the meat of the season. Four weeks in and our third event, let the storylines build as we print some money across the Pacific while we sleep. Honda LPGA ThailandPolar oppositeSiam Country Club has been the consistent host of the LPGA for some time. A field of 72 players will compete for $1.7 million and $255,000 for first place. The LPGA uses the Old Course at the 63-hole, three course facility in downtown Pattaya. There are a number of unique aspects to this design, but the first that will catch your eye is the overall layout. The entire course runs north and south. I say this every year(!), but I donβt know if I have ever played a routing that only sends golfers in two (wind) directions.β Plan to go low as the average winning score over the last decade is 21 under par. The Old Course is a par 72 design covering 6,576 yards. The true parkland layout boasts four par 3s (average length of 169 yards), four par 5s (avg. length 515 yards), and ten par 4s (avg. length 384 yards). We have 83 bunkers to contend with and 43 of them sit greenside. Seven holes have water, and three of them fall on the last four to play. Keep it between the trees and you can score. Major winner Lilia Vu had her first career win here in 2023 and then went on to win multiple majors. Past Champions include Lexi, Anna Nordqvist, Ariya Jutanugarn, and Amy Yang. The Old Course gets great winners, but the ironic part is that it is not that hard. Much like the Tournament of Champions, this is a four-round no-cut event. Seventy-two women are competing and many of them will be the competitors who play the next two events over in Asia. Should this week sneak by us without a win; keep paying attention to the field. We will have more chances with this crew. The forecast calls for a south wind for all four rounds. That's impactful because half the holes will play into the wind. Remember nine holes run south and the other nine run north. Yes, nine holes will play downwind, but the course will also play soft. Great for hitting targets, it also implies wet weather. We have about .75" of rain predicted throughout the tournament. Thankfully, the wind looks tame, but over a half inch of rain is going to fall Saturday into Sunday. Bring a rainsuit as the spring Asia schedule has been plagued by rain before. Target practice in ThailandThe bermudagrass greens will be receptive for scoring at Siam CC. Players will need to take dead aim with their irons to contend. The last three top 10s on the leaderboard have averaged the largest gains with their irons. Those same ladies average hitting almost 80% (78.7) of their GIRs. I'm starting with great iron players who have shown tremendous form in the first three events of 2025. I know there have been only two LPGA contests, but the LET played last weekend in Saudi Arabia. An excellent warm-up for this week, you better be ready to score from the start. That's where the iron game plays such a significant role. With an average par 4 length of 384 yards, get the wedge out and start target practice. The contending women gained three times more off the tee than with their short game. The fairways are tree-lined at Siamβs Old Course. Great drivers can create an edge on the field by putting a bunch of tee shots in play. The 2022 winner, Nanna Koertsz Madsen is one of the longest players on tour. She used her advantage and hit well over 80% of her greens in regulation by driving the ball an average of 295 yards! More scoring opportunities leads to more birdies. This is definitely a track meet. Celine Boutier made thirty birdies against Madsen and lost! It's going to be bombs away at this birdie barrage. Similar to the men, Par 4 scoring is very representative of solid play. At Siam CC, eight of the Top 10 toughest holes are Par 4's. Then again some like the fifteenth are huge scoring opportunities. That careful blend of making par when needed and attacking when possible is the epitome of the Par 4 player. There's a couple really good ones in this field, and you better believe they are listed below.The best place to take advantage of the Old Course is on the short par 5s. Par 5 scoring leads to a successful stay at Siam. The par 3s and 4s are played just around par by the leaders, but the 5s get destroyed by the worldβs best women. You know when it comes to covering the LPGA, I create my own prediction charts. I compare swings, form, and skills to determine who will contend statistically and visually. By combining a player's birdie rate, strokes gained scoring, and their ability to play sub-par holes, we can better understand who has the best chance to take it deep. Throw on top of that how often they score in the 60's and now we have our own BoB% leaderboard. This homemade soup for scoring is the lead analytic I'm using to determine our winner. Players with a low scoring average also maintain a positive birdie to bogey ratio. I find this particular relationship great to measure success on both hard and easy courses. We know this is one of the easier venues on tour and unfortunately it has the second best player in the world in the field. Jeeno may be tough to beat and what can you do, we deal with this all the time on the men's side with Scottie. At +450, we're not going single bullet and betting her. There's a bunch of ladies who have started the year hot. I like our chances with this card to take Thitikul down in her home country. It is tough to be the favorite (at home) and win. At least that's what I tell myself before I stay up all night and watch... Outright winners - Honda LPGA Thailand
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