Boot Camp π₯Ύ
Texas cookingIt wasn't easy by any stretch of the imagination, but RTL subscribers gained another outright win on Sunday afternoon in Houston. Min Woo Lee (+3500) held it together down the stretch and won the Houston Open by one stroke over Gary Woodland and Scottie Scheffler. Win number TWO this year and thirty-ninth in three seasons, our process is proven once again. Now just eight days until Fred Ridley announces the Honorary Starters at Augusta National, our focus this week turns to San Antonio and the Valero Texas Open. The second of two Texas tournaments, we have 8 of the top 25 in the OWGR competing and more importantly preparing for Magnolia Lane. What did we learn at Memorial Park in advance of Augusta?
The Houston Open was an awesome tournament, but only seven of the top 26 on the final leaderboard are in The Masters. Even Woodland needs a win this week to get into Augusta. Looking ahead to the Valero, Γ berg, Cantlay, Fleetwood, and Spieth will provide more of a preview for 2025's first major championship. Pull that saddle tight, I expect another wild ride in Texas as everyone makes one final push toward Georgia. Balancing actMemorial Park played soft, and scoring became the number one storyline. TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course is the fourth longest track on TOUR. Similar to Memorial Park, the Oaks Course is a tough test. The average winning score over the last decade is 15 under par. Every cutline over those 10 years has been even par or higher. The par 72 layout is 7,438 yards long. San Antonio received 1.6" of rain last week. The forecast calls for another .25" on Thursday and Friday. If we get soft conditions, or worse ball in hand, then the balance between birdies and bogeys really becomes the main narrative. The winner's average 25 BoB scores over the last five years. The average winning score in that time frame is 17 under par. Normally firm and fast, the Oaks Course has rolling hills, three holes where water comes into play (two of the last three), small(ish) greens at 6,400 sq/ft, and 64 bunkers. Those bunkers are notoriously some of the toughest on the PGA TOUR outside of majors. Greg Norman designed the course in 2010. Tee to green play is the priority and with damp conditions in the forecast, those who can really attack with their iron game will have a huge advantage. Under firm conditions like last year, only two players were better than 11 under par. The field was +243 relative to par for the week. There were 1,596 bogeys or worse against just 1,550 birdie or better scores. If we do get the rain, it will be welcome at a venue that generally gives these guys some trouble. Along with the wet weather, temperatures are expected to drop as the days go forward. The high tomorrow is 87 degrees and 64 degrees on Sunday! Cooler temps will bring in some wind for the final round. TPC San Antonio measures up against the tougher tracks on TOUR. The field of 150 will hit less than 60% of the fairways and GIRs. Average driving distance is about the TOUR average along with three-putt percentage and scrambling. The top 65 and ties who do make the weekend will compete for $9.5 million which is up slightly from last year ($9.2M). I like to bring that up every once in a while, for the regular events. The fall series events were all down in prize money. If the Valero, Cognizant, John Deere, etc. are doing good, then that is a good sign of support. Valero Texas Open starts in...The winner grabs $1.71 million and a very nice pair of new boots. This might be my favorite prize ceremony of the year. The green jacket is number one but watching a PGA TOUR player like Corey Conners or Akshay Bhatia try on a new pair of cowboy boots is fantastic theater. With nine holes that have a birdie rate over 15% and 10 holes with a bogey rate over that same value, I like to point out the ending of the Oaks Course. Four of the final five holes are annually inside the top seven easiest on the course. The opposite of a venue like Bay Hill where the final stretch is impossible, TPC San Antonio has a very entertaining close. We saw this last year when Denny McCarthy caught Akshay by birdieing the final seven holes and eight of the last nine for a back nine 28! Eight of the last 10 Valero winners needed those "champion boots" in order to get invited to The Masters. As unlikely as it seems, it happens more than people think. The main reason is the favorites are looking ahead. The Valero also has just eight of the top 25 players in the world playing. The average winner's pre-tournament odds over the last 10 years is +11300 (113-1)! Those boots can be compared to Cinderella's slippers in many ways. Will someone else slip them on and head east to Augusta. We know the crowds will be pulling for Gary Woodland to be the one, but Rickie Fowler or Daniel Berger would also love to make that trip back down Magnolia Lane. To those who have never been, there's always hope, and to the few that have been and cannot get back looms career regret. In both cases, TPC San Antonio provides a playground where one chosen soul will probably answer their dream or end a recurring nightmare. Texas track manSergio Garcia was a consultant on this design. Knowing that, you can better understand why ball striking is far more important than putting. Norman loved driving the golf ball and you can feel that when you look down these fairway corridors. Together, they have developed a venue with a couple of very interesting "winner themes." We all know the Oaks Course rewards great approach play. By how do you separate with your iron game? The past few weeks it was all about mid and long iron play. Conversely, TPC San Antonio has more shots from 125 yards and in than the TOUR average. The four par 5s and five par 4s under 410 require a high level of wedge acumen. The strokes gained par ranges haven't changed from last week, but the skill set has. Don't be surprised if the two leaderboards share a much different identity.
Great approach players, especially from close range, have the ability to distance themselves. Matt Kuchar, Corey Conners, Jordan Spieth, just to name a few, all have seen great success here. The winners average eight more birdies than the average winning score. That's a significant bogey-birdie balance. I flipped those two terms from their usual order to highlight how often players make mistakes on the Oaks Course. Players who can scramble and score from close range are an asset to any betting card. In 2024, the top four finishers were inside the top 7 for strokes gained approach. The top 2 on the leaderboard were the top two in strokes gained around the green. Alone each skill will help you contend, together they are a powerful winning combination. Scoring with those wedges adds up over 18-holes. With a 30% birdie average on the par 5s and since all four 3s have a scoring average over par, I'm going to focus on the 4s. The last five winners have gained an average of +10.4 strokes on the field playing the par 4s. Those 10 holes are the opportunity at TPC San Antonio. I look at the stretch from four through 12 where you have seven par 4s in a nine-hole run. Rounds will be made (or lost) in the middle if you start on hole one. Those 4s range from 401 to 481 in length. They bend in both directions off the tee and involve some of the most difficult bunkering on the course. Six of the top 10 hardest holes come in that range. I've mentioned scrambling and the bunkers separately. Sand play is extremely important on the Oaks Course. The bunkering is very natural at TPC San Antonio. If you look from overhead, you will see a number of ragged edges and outcroppings. These bunkers are not clean like Augusta National. They are the rough variety and as such will give you some extreme lies. Conquering the sand is a big part of the contending equation. Past winners have used their wedges in more ways than one. Not just on approach, around the green and in the sand are other areas one must excel. When it comes to driving accuracy, we are far from Memorial Park. Norman and Garcia were great drivers of the golf ball. Two of the longest and straightest ever. It makes sense they would collab on a course that rewards accuracy and length. Much like a major championship, you have to drive the ball well here. That fits for many of the best ball strikers on the PGA TOUR. Those same contenders usually can't putt. Six of the last 10 winners gained less than five strokes on the field with their flatstick. Making sub-par scores and converting on the greens is important, but any course where Corey Conners has won TWICE in the last editions, well you get the picture. With trouble around most corners, sub-par scoring is needed. If we get wet like the weatherman says, players will need 20+ birdies (and eagles) to contend and win. To put it in perspective, the average winning score at Memorial Park was 13 under par. With wet conditions, that score would have placed you tied tenth with Mac Hughes. It rained last week and we're going to get more. Third place won't be 11 under par. Vegas has the over under for winning score at 17.5 under par. It sounds data driven, but to score in San Antonio this week, your distances better be spot on. A true Texas Trackman is what it will take to win the Valero. Outright Winners - Valero Texas OpenRead between the linesThe best place to follow news about Read The Line is right here! β Do you know what it means to be a member of Read The Line?We provide more outrights, prop bets, H2H matchups, DFS lineups, and One & Done picks. Hit the link above and see for yourself!
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