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Look closely this week as I will be in Atlanta covering the Tour Championship for RTL.
The Tour Championship is a unique event. We come here every year to complete the FedEx Cup playoffs and say goodbye to the current season. We feel as if we know East Lake Golf Club very well. Yet when we begin to investigate the historical data inside this event, we quickly realize only thirty players compete here each year. Of those thirty, about half of them are here every year, so a small sample gets even smaller.
East Lake Golf Club is a stern test. The Par 70 scorecard measures 7,419 yards. That yardage puts ELGC near the top of the list for length on the PGA Tour. Couple that with only two Par 5's and four Par 3's over 200 yards and there's no secret why the average winning score over the past fifteen FedEx Cup finales have been just 11 under par. The brutal assortment of Par 4's really sets apart the best ball strikers in the field.
Looking ahead to the weather this week, there are going to be a couple of interesting challenges.
We know this is an elite field. How elite? All of the Top 10 and nineteen of the Top 20 in the OWGR are in Atlanta. If last week's leaderboard is any indication of the theater we can expect this week, it's going to be a great end to a historic season.
Much has been made of the Tour Championship staggered stroke start in the scoring since it began in 2019. For those who aren't familiar, each player begins the tournament with a specific score this week based upon their standing in the FedEx Top 30. Our leader Scottie Scheffler starts at ten under par while the 30th ranked player starts at even par. We know the average winning score is eleven under after 72 holes. Therefore, if you start four or five back it is pretty much impossible to catch the leader. Could it happen? Sure. But the odds don't reflect how difficult it is.
Therefore, our betting selections this week will be based on scoring without the added strokes. Every player is trying their very best to go low. There could be a situation where the leader gets way ahead and doesn't push to the end, but I have taken that scenario into account with my predictions. Our list is full of guys who play aggressively and want to win.
This is our last chance to bet the men for a couple of weeks. Let's take advantage of my own property analysis Tuesday in Atlanta and our great momentum from the rest of this season.
The best women in the world are back. It has been a couple of weeks since the last major championship of the season and each of the world's best has had a moment to catch her breath. The CP Women's Open takes us to Canada for their women's golf national championship. Fire up the mounties and get ready for Brooke Henderson bedlam! Yes, the two-time winner on tour this season is headlining a star-studded field north of the border.
Ottawa Hunt and Golf Club is the host this week for the fourth time. This rolling landscape is home to three different nines, the women will be competing on the South-West layout.
It should be a little cool this week up in Canada. The ladies are used to it coming from Europe, but it just means the ball won't be flying like it is during summertime. Expected temperatures will be in the 50's to start the day and only reach the high 70's. Rounds 1 and 2 will be affected by rain which will cause the course to play even longer than it is already. A little wind is in the forecast ranging from 8-12 mph over the four days of competition. Overall the weather looks pretty good for golf in Canada.
The longer players should feast off the Par 5's here at OH&GC. As they will need to; in the three previous women's Canadian Opens held on site the average winning score was only eleven under par. Much like East Lake, these women have their work cut out for them. Before we spotlight the predicted few who will contend, let's consider we haven't played this championship in three years.
The last CP Women's Open took place in 2019. Jin Young Ko took that title home and went on to become the number one player in the world. Her lead on the rest has been diminishing all season. Upon return to Canada this year, will this event be a launching pad for a new number one? Minjee has had an unbelievable season to date and Nelly is back. Can a rookie make a splash in a national open or will another well-rounded womAn take home the title?
This course is a true test and I cannot wait to put our list up against the rest to try and win number six of the season!
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The mission of Read The Line is simple - bring our members the best golf betting coverage. In order to accomplish this goal, I travel to as many tournaments as possible. There's no substitute for watching the men and women prepare and compete up close. Fans always ask why our betting community wins so often. Being there makes a big difference. You cannot figure all this out from just spreadsheets and statistics at home. You have to experience how the players are connecting with the course. That's a very powerful edge and one I'm very happy to share with my readers.
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Winning the Superbowl
East Lake Golf Club is a great finishing test for the FedEx Cup season. Every week is a challenge, but this end stop is really no joke. Start by looking at the scorecard:
Par 4 scoring is certainly key, but even more important might be hitting the fairway. ELGC has some of the tightest fairway targets on tour. Couple that with 36 fairway bunkers on twelve of the fourteen driver holes. Looking back at the stats, great drivers excel at East Lake. It annually ranks in the Top 5 for rough penalty (missing the fairway). Our outright list can flat-out drive the golf ball.
The player average for hitting greens in regulation is slightly below the tour average as well. Even though it is just below, when you combine the driving difficulty and the approach test, that's why ELGC separates great ball strikers from the rest. Speaking of the approach difficulty...
If you're looking for great long-iron players, here's where you'll find them. Another standout feature of this Rees Jones redo is all the elevation changes. We don't think of Atlanta as a hilly place, but as players walk the five miles of East Lake, they will climb over 150 feet in elevation. That's significant and plays a role in all these very long approach shots. Throw in those cross winds we mentioned in the opening and now you really start to see why this course plays so difficult.
If we're missing greens, then short game skill helps save par. Bogey Avoidance is a contending skill at East Lake and so is making short putts. The toughest putts to sink at ELGC relative to the tour average are those under five feet. Chip it close and make sure you pay attention until it gets into the hole. Watch this weekend, more than a couple of guys will miss some four and five-footers. There's plenty of pressure involved and when you combine that with the skill set I just explained, we get this list of predicted winners.
Jon Rahm (+900)
Sungjae Im (+2200)
Pick 3* (+2800)
Pick 4* (+4500)
(*- member content)
On the hunt
Ottawa Hunt and Golf Club have a couple of repeatable features that continue to test a player as they navigate through all eighteen holes.
Part of this field competed last time the CP Women's Open was played here in 2017. Overall, the combination of great T2G play and patience will ultimately decide who contends and wins. Our list of outrights have all shined above the border before (except one, she's a rookie). Our last ladies prediction was a win, let's get two in a row!
Nasa Hataoka - She already won earlier this season in impressive fashion. Quite honestly, her game may be in better form now than then. Fresh off an eighth place at the AIG Women's Open, Nasa has been in contention in Canada before. She finished fifth in 2019 and eighth the year before that. The strength of her game is in ball striking. Where does it show up best? How about in Par 3 scoring. She's ranked fourth on the LPGA on the 3's and Top 10 in scoring average. This course suits her game well and therefore she sits at the top of my list.
Hye Jin Choi - This rookie phenomenon is really good. She's ranked seventh in Strokes Gained Total on the tour. She's second in the Rookie of the Year points and she hasn't won yet. Eight Top 10 finishes this season has helped and they come from being sixth in Scoring Average. Hye Jin is a phenomenal ball striker who hits tons of GIR's. She will win this season and we want to back her when she does. Don't be deceived by her little stature, she can pound it out there. Her last start was at the AIG and she finished fifth. Watch this week as she gets in the winner's circle.
Nasa Hataoka (+1400)
Hye Jin Choi (+2200)
Pick 3* (+4000)
Pick 4* (+10000)
(*- member content)
I went back to school Tuesday to catch up with a couple of friends. Georgia Tech has an awesome men's golf team. One of their home courses is East Lake Golf Club. Tuesday morning, I visited the Noonan Center nestled near campus in Atlanta. This 13 acre facility keeps the game sharp for not only their current players, but all golf team alumni as well. Stewart Cink, more alums and some current team members were there and I spoke with them about the challenges of ELGC. Their input was very insightful and has definitely shaped our predictions this week.
The LPGA continues this fall as well, keep boosting that football betting budget
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Golf Analysis, Birdie Banter, and Bonafide Insights Every Week. As a subscriber to Read The Line, you'll elevate your sports knowledge.
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