Making it to Memphis

Major season has moved on and now comes time for the playoff push. Trust me, I'm as bummed as you are that the four majors are behind us, but life goes on. Over the next month plus, we have some great players in the field of 60 at the Olympics and then the FedEx Cup. How soon we forget the amazing Viktor run we went on last year winning the BMW and the Tour Championship in back to back weeks. That second win was also the weekend where Megan Khang won in Canada and we had our first PGA TOUR + LPGA double win Sunday. The 3M Open is taking place at TPC Twin Cities for the sixth time. A relatively new tournament on the PGA TOUR schedule, each year the betting storylines have been entertaining.

Fresh off a terrible missed cut in the awful weather wave at Royal Troon, Finau is the betting favorite. Followed closely by Sam Burns, Sahith Theegala, Akshay Bhatia, and Luke Clanton the world's best stayed near Paris. Only 12 of the top 50 in the OWGR are playing this week. Competing for $8.1 million, many of the 156 players have bigger reasons than purse money to contend. The regular season only has two more TOUR events; the 3M Open and the Wyndham Championship. Only the Top 70 and ties make the playoffs. There's plenty of room for some serious movement in these two tournaments. Take a look at the current standings - ​FedEx Cup Points​.

3M Open starts in...

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Double bogey avoidance

TPC Twin Cities is a par 71 scorecard carrying over 7,431 yards. Now Blaine, Minnesota sits 1,000 feet above sea level. That means plenty of players will be sending that driver over 300 yards. The theme of this golf course is double bogey avoidance. TPC Twin Cities has seven holes with a 2% double bogey rate or higher. I know, I know, 2% sounds minimal, but that's a significant amount for a TOUR venue. Conversely, there are 12 holes with a birdie rate over 15%. This is a classic risk reward PGA TOUR birdiefest. The average winning score over the previous five editions is 19 under par.

This Arnold Palmer design (2000) pushes players to decide how far they are willing to go. The greens are generous at 6,500 sq/ft and covered in bentgrass. Seventy-two bunkers are strewn throughout the course along with 15 holes where water comes into play. This is one of the few courses where driving accuracy and distance are BOTH above the TOUR average. That means, the field pushes it down the fairway in Blaine. As such, the GIR rate is 6% higher than the PGA TOUR average. Palmer was never known for intricate green complexes, so missing these putting surfaces doesn't seem to hold the contenders back.

Our forecast is vastly better than the west coast of Scotland. We have received some rain this week, but overall the agronomy is in perfect shape and ready for the field. Temperatures are predicted in the high 80s and with a decent amount of wind. That breeze will be blowing from the south. That's significant because 12 holes at TPC Twin Cities run mainly east or west. That is going to produce plenty of cross wind situations. When that wind is blowing side to side and you have that many penalty areas, the pucker factor off the tee and on approach goes way up! Let's see who can let loose across this landscape with double bogey lurking around so many corners.

Please understand, players will make some bad scores here, but 11 under par after 72-holes barely cracked the top 30 last year. The average cutline has been one under par which shows the volatility factor of a layout like this. Scoring success has favored longer hitters. In 2024, that's not much of a mystery, but it bears worth mentioning. When you have a field this wide open, you need multiple factors to differentiate the contenders. The average winner's pre-tournament odds are +10800. In five events, there have been three triple digit winners and one favorite; Tony Finau (2022). Tony returns again after a missed cut at Troon. One of 17 players who have competed in all five previous editions, Finau has finished in the top 7 three times including that win.

One last point on my perspective in the Twin Cities, many of the names you don't readily know played in the Barracuda Championship last week. A secondary PGA TOUR event held alongside The Open. Scoring was prolific and gives us a nice precursor for the 3M field. Many of you already know this, but it bears mention to our betting community.

Read The Line recap 🗞️ Lee Hodges won the 3M Open by seven strokes last year. Hodges gained nine strokes on approach and another six with his putter. Most pay attention to the driver at TPC Twin Cities, don't fall for that trap. Birdiefests require proximity to the hole and opportunistic putting. All five winners have followed the same path to winning as Hodges. Tail the theme and you'll create a list of contenders.

TPC talk

I'm sure you all are tired from all the betting content last week, and with an LPGA event to cover in Canada, I'll get right to the point here. The path to making 20+ sub-par scores is always the same, hit the ball close 32-36 times and convert two-thirds of the birdie chances. The layout at TPC Twin Cities does place a premium on driving the golf ball in play, but not nearly as significant as some pundits would promote. I mentioned this earlier, if accuracy was super important, fairways hit would be below the weekly TOUR average. Second, players would hit less than driver if that was the case. This would drive down the driving distance average which is also well above the TOUR average.

Past champions include Matt Wolff, Tony Finau, and Cam Champ. Not just long, these are three of THE longest players on the PGA TOUR of the last 10 years. Once the approach is set up, contenders really need to attack with their irons. Looking at the five winners, they gained (on average) almost eight strokes on the field. I compare these values week after week, venue after venue. That's a ton of strokes on approach. Only one winner (Champ) gained less than seven strokes with his iron game out of the five. Of course he gained over eight strokes with his putter. We will get there. Who in this field can spike on approach like that?

In 2023, nine of the top 12 finishers gained at least two strokes on approach and eight of them gained over three strokes on the field with their putter. There's that formula again. For every distance outside 10', players make more putts than the TOUR average at Twin Cities. These greens are good and in fine condition. That northern Poa-bent blend is the best. Successful Superintendents can make this agronomy combination very consistent. With so many competitors coming from the Barracuda (winning score 25 under par) and ISCO Championship (winning score 22 under par), players have been rolling the rock well and will continue to do so.

Par 4 scoring leads the way amongst secondary categories for another area to research. The course has five par 4s over 450 yards. Conversely, there are also five par 4s under 425 yards. Scoring on a variety of 4s makes a big difference in most fields including this one. We very rarely talk about around the green play in shootouts and this week will be the same. It's great to have a wonderful short game, but if you are trying to save par then you are not putting for birdie. A timely save once a round will help, but the easier the course, the less emphasis we need to place on short game.

The proximity gains vary greatly year to year at the 3M. The firmer the conditions, the more it favored longer approaches. Why does that make sense? Gains happen when you can separate from the field. Longer, better approach players have the ability to hit higher apex long irons into the long par 4s and for second shots on par 5s. That leads to scoring and helps you pull away from the field. Watch the best long iron players in the field gain a couple extra strokes on the average ball strikers. TPC Twin Cities is definitely one of the better cookie-cutter PGA TOUR courses. It allows for some separation in scoring and course strategy. Enjoy the return to target golf and vanilla shot shaping.

I know that sounds unfair and like I'm promoting more wild weeks like The Open. The truth is, the uniqueness of each week is what makes every event entertaining. The venue changes, player lists, and forecasts all create an air of uncertainty. Enjoy the 3M Open and watch as our outrights take control of this championship.

Outright Winners - 3M Open

Erik van Rooyen is currently eighteenth on the Presidents Cup point list and fifty-six on the FEC list. Erik has a ton to play for over the next month. Van Rooyen is a scoring specialist. In his last six birdiefest events, he has a win, and four top 8 finishes. Erik can go low. Van Rooyen attended the University of Minnesota. Their campus is just 20 miles away from the course. Erik is the 2012 Minnesota State Amateur Champion. Another proven winner on this agronomy. Erik van Rooyen +4000

Ben Griffin is another player I love to feature on easier golf courses. Over Griffin's last five birdiefest starts, Ben has finished 5-2-14-9-8. Griffin scores with his approach game proximity. He is gaining an average of two strokes per start over his last 10. He then complements it with a nice conversion rate on the greens. In the three SG measured events (of the five above), his average is over six strokes! Ben Griffin +5500

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Inside the ropes at the 2023 Genesis Invitational

Summer stampede

The Dana Open came down to those final two par 5s. Chanettee Wannasaen took home the title at 20 under par, her second LPGA win. With Toledo in the rearview mirror, we head to another national Championship. The CPKC Women's Open, Canada's championship, takes place at the Earl Grey Golf Club in Calgary, Alberta this year. Eleven of the top 25 in the Rolex World Rankings are in the field of 156 players ready to compete for $2.6 million. The defending champion is Megan Khang. Megan captured her first career victory last summer at the Shaughnessy Golf and Country Club. It was our twelfth RTL win of the season!

The Canadian Women's Open is celebrating its 50th Anniversary. For their golden celebration, they have chosen an amazing venue in the southern suburbs of Calgary. Earl Grey Golf Club has not hosted the CPKC before in any of the prior 49 editions. One look at this landscape and you'll see why this setting should have been chosen sooner. Founded in 1919, the club has 18 championship holes and a fun short course routing. Set alongside the Elbow River, EGGC boasts 12 elbows (or doglegs) of its own. The parkland layout is a par 72 course covering 6,856 yards. The scorecard has a traditional allotment of four par 3s and 5s along with ten par 4s.

CPKC Women's Open starts in...

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If you are familiar with Earl Grey Golf Club and have played there, the routing you are used to will be quite different for the championship. It seems the tournament officials have changed the course order significantly to create a better eighteenth hole setting. Here's the breakdown for the championship routing. The actual hole numbers are in parenthesis.

• Front nine: 1 (11), 2 (12), 3 (13), 4 (14), 5 (15), 6 (16), 7 (5), 8 (6), 9 (7)
• Back nine: 10 (2), 11 (3), 12 (4), 13 (17), 14 (18), 15 (1), 16 (8), 17 (9), 18 (10)

The 35-37 layout features the Elbow River holes to start with the opening tee shot and again to close the front nine. The sixteenth hole will feature the river views one last time as the competitors close out their rounds. Earl Grey has the fourth largest greens on tour to date (6,100 sq/ft). They are covered in Poa annua and Bentgrass. A perfect northern blend to putt on. Sixty-seven bunkers, tree lined fairways, and five holes with water in play all add to the challenge of making the top 65 and ties to play the weekend. The course was renovated in 2018, and well prepared to host this championship.

Speaking of preparedness, these women just traveled 1,800 miles north and west to Canada. Thankfully, the weather forecast looks great again this week. Temperatures are predicted in the low 80s with no rain. A little wind is expected on Thursday and Friday blowing in the low teens, but overall these women have another incredible forecast for golf. In the last month, the LPGA has played in two majors and traveled halfway around the world. Next week the tour heads to Portland, while the women who qualified for the Olympics go BACK to France. Yes, they were just in Europe eight days ago... This schedule is wild, and without a strong field in Canada let's use our industry best LPGA knowledge to win the CPKC again.

Parkland prediction

Professional golfers are a funny breed. Since missing four straight cuts and then announcing her retirement to the golfing world, Lexi Thompson has finished second, ninth, eighth, and nineteenth last week at the Dana Open. Take a little pressure off, and great players can just play. I highly doubt she will change her mind, but it's an interesting pattern to watch. Does Lexi's game fit Earl Grey, the way she is currently playing most would say yes. The picturesque parkland layout has a varying terrain with wonderful tree-lined fairways. My first featured skill of the week is off the tee play. Remember strokes gained off the tee (SG:OTT) favors longer, straighter hitters. With 12 doglegs and 17 fairway bunkers, the best drivers with ball speed have a serious advantage.

These greens are big by average LPGA tour standards. So GIR accuracy isn't going to be enough for us to determine our outright card. I'm looking closer at proximity to the hole this week. Who hits it closer? I take a general look every week at proximity, but most weeks the greens are so small that GIR numbers can shape the story. Weeks with greens like this we need more research. The approach narrative also involves two very specific skill sets. The first is from under 100 yards. One-third of the approaches will be from very close range. Wedge play tends to be a bit of a weakness for better players, so it is very helpful to separate our leans.

The second approach skill is from long range. Another reason why length is very important off the tee, 56% of approaches are coming in from over 150 yards (eight out of 18). This means the field will be employing plenty of mid-irons and hybrids. Much like the men, lengthy approach play really differentiates the field. In comparison to the men, I believe it separates the ladies even more. Roughly 25% of the LPGA has the power to hit long approaches properly. Most launch them lower due to a lack of ball speed. Players like Nelly, Lexi, etc. have the ability to launch it much higher and land it closer. It's why they contend all the time quite honestly.

Big greens bring on three-putt concerns. We are definitely eliminating the poor putters. I took a combination of strokes gained putting and putts per GIR in this analysis. Players who have a lower putts per GIR do not three putt! With limited data available on the LPGA, the KPMG numbers I receive every week are still very helpful if you understand them. I believe this will be a mid-scoring affair and as such we will need a healthy balance of BoB% over bogey avoidance. Along those lines, I'm going to compare around the green acumen with scrambling skill. Four par 5s and two very short par 4s give us six very good scrambling opportunities. Scrambling shots help players score from 75 yards and in.

To round out the card, I want excellent par 4 scoring. Seven of the 10 par 4s are over 400 yards. Eleven and 12 back to back are both over 400 yards and have water guarding the green. The stretch of holes from 10 to 13 presents four very difficult par 4 tests. Starting on the back nine will be more challenging than the front. Be ready to go on the tenth tee, because a slow start will stifle your chances. Those are my keys for the betting narrative this week. We were on point last week as three outrights were in the mix for three rounds. A poor Sunday pushed us to Canada, but there's little doubt after our success up north a year ago we can win again!

Outright winners - CPKC Women's Open

Mao Saigo had five wins on the Japan LPGA over the past two years before joining the LPGA. Saigo is another proximity player whose approach game is elite. She just finished sixteenth at the Dana Open and seventh at the KPMG. Two similar parkland style venues. Mao has five top 20s in her rookie year and no missed cuts. Mao Saigo +2500

Lauren Coughlin just finished fourth at the Evian and twenty-fourth at the KPMG. Both are extremely difficult parkland layouts. Coughlin is a great all-around player. She is ranked top 15 in T2G, OTT, APP, and putting in this field. Lauren has four top 10s this year and no missed cuts. She is incredibly consistent. Coughlin finished sixth last year in the CPKC and is comfortable on northern grasses. Lauren Coughlin +4000

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