The 45th Ryder Cupmatch starts on Friday at 7:10 am ET. Instead of the normal Wednesday delivery, we are going to enjoy the moment and provide a different delivery cadence. It is something that I have always wanted to try during major event weeks. Here's what we have in store...
Monday
Read The Line on the Golf Channel. Keith's interview follows Ian Poulter.LINKβ
Tuesday
Every edge about the Black Course that will determine who will win each match and the Ryder Cup!
Wednesday
Time to break down the two teams. Which skills matter most to the Captains.
Thursday
Read The Line's official pre-match betting card!
Friday, Saturday, & Sunday
Live match bets posted on RTL social channels. (X, Instagram, TikTok)
"The Black"
FARMINGDALE, NY - If you are looking for a traditional course preview, this is not it. Our focus is to break down the golf course so you can become a better Bethpage bettor. My observations stem from playing the Black Course in July and being on the property for the Ryder Cup. I documented that trip for Golf Digest. Bethpage State Park is home to the Black Course. The Official Scorecard shows a par 70 layout covering 7,352 yards. Four par 3s, 12 par 4s, and two par 5s make up the design. Known globally as one of the toughest tests in golf, above the first tee sits a "warning sign." Designed by AW Tillinghast, The Black, as locals call it, is a true ball-striking test. An average green size of 6,000 sq/ft presents a target big enough to hit and small enough to reduce your three-putt frequency.
One hole (eight) has a water penalty area, but it does not come into play. We are talking grass and sand, lots of sand. There are 76 bunkers (8 acres) on the Black Course. The greens are covered in a Bentgrass-Poa Annua mix. In September, you can expect way more Poa than bent, but in any case, they will be perfect to putt on. We'll get more into the green surfaces in a second. The weather wants to get involved in the pre-match conversation. The current forecast calls for a rainstorm on Thursday afternoon. In fact, the PGA of America has moved the Opening Ceremony to Wednesday at 4:00 pm ET. NO! We won't get the Friday Foursomes pairings any sooner, but we will get the superfluous celebration out of the way.
45th Ryder Cup starts in...
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The rain showers should subside by early Friday morning before the first tee shot. The weekend looks great with temperatures in the mid-70s and the wind under 10 mph all three match days. On Friday, Fourball matches follow the morning Foursomes. Saturday, we repeat the order of the team matches, and Sunday starts at noon with 12 head-to-head individual battles. Overall, it is 90 possible holes in three days. We have not witnessed a close Ryder Cup match in over a decade. The home team has won the last five by an average of 6.6 points! A big part of that record stems from home-course advantage. Did Kerry Haigh, Keegan Bradley, and the PGA of America set up the Black Course for the American side? Will that matter? These two teams are very close in ability. Just below the real-time weather link and Bethpage GCSAA report, I will break it all down.
The Ryder Cup official scorecard is 107 yards shorter than the course for the 2019 PGA Championship. Five holes have been manipulated to play shorter, starting with number one. The first tee has been moved up and to the left. Some think because of the buildout, but I believe it is with a doubt due to Whistling Straits. The USA is looking to reach the first green off the tee. It set the tone in Wisconsin, and when it comes to winning the Cup, the first hole is paramount. Following number one, three, 12, 15, and 17 have been shortened. Why shorten the course? Isn't the American side full of bombers? The fact is, the Americans are better with a scoring iron in their hand. The Euros killed us in Rome with a bunch of high leverage long iron approaches. Shorten the iron shot, and the US will have an advantage.
Speaking of scoring, let's widen the fairways and lower the rough. Walking the golf course, it appears Captain Bradley wants to go low. Many of the fairway cuts have been widened from the Bethpage's US Open and PGA setup(s). I noticed this during my round. In fact, many of the areas where rough was lowered (or removed) brought the fairway bunkers into play. The rough is at least an inch shorter than major championship standards. Which team has more scoring potential? Statistically speaking, take the Americans.
Read the Line & 5 Clubs produced a comprehensive wagering preview of the Ryder Cup. Join Keith, Gary Williams, and Brendon de Jonge as they provide expert insights on the biennial match!
If you want to score at Bethpage, do it early in the round. Six of the first 13 holes played under par in the 2019 PGA Championship. Five of the first eight are really gettable for these 24 players. I mentioned earlier that winning the first hole is significant. Teams that win the first hole win nearly 70% of their matches. 70%! Seven of the top 10 best front-nine scorers in the field are from the United States. Get out to an early lead, and your opponent will have a much tougher time making sub-par scores against you later in the match.
To compound the early scoring influence, the average Ryder Cup match lasts 16.63 holes. Separate it by format: Foursomes (16.54 holes), Fourball (16.72 holes), and Singles (16.64 holes). Quick PSA, if you are looking for a key seat, I'd grab a spot behind the thirteenth green or on fourteen. Memorable moments are going to happen on those two holes. The European team has a better long-iron game. Keep them away from holes 15, 16, and 17. The United States has all the motivation necessary to go after these guys early. If you are Europe, go low early as well, but if the match ends up on the final few holes, you will catch a late edge against the home team.
The odd holes play similarly off the tee on the Black Course. Four of the holes favor a left-to-right ball flight, and one plays straight. A right-handed fader of the golf ball would love this look on the tee box. The average approach shot on the odds is 175 yards. To reach that number, I used a drive length of 300-310 yards on a professional target line. The nine odd holes give you two par 3s, although one is 17, and one par 5 (13).
Conversely, the even holes favor a right-to-left trajectory on five holes, and the other two tee shots are straight. A great right-handed draw player is at home here. If you were left-handed, there might be an even sweeter advantage. Robert MacIntyre will play these tee shots with a fade. Always easier to control a fade than a draw. The average approach on these nine holes is 157 yards. Why the last two bullet points? Pay attention to the parings. If you see Captain Luke Donald put out two faders in Foursomes together, it is time to tail their opponents! These little edges make a big difference in the Ryder Cup. Quite honestly, it is how Europe has beaten the United States for years with less talent on paper.
Team Europeβs ball flight breakdown OTT:
Fade - Γ berg, Hatton, HΓΈjgaard, Hovland, Lowry, and Rahm
Both, but more draw than fade - Fleetwood
Both, but more fade than draw - Fitzpatrick, MacIntyre, McIlroy, Rose, and Straka
Team USAβs ball flight breakdown OTT:
Fade - Burns, English, Griffin, Morikawa, Spaun, Scheffler, Thomas
Both, but more draw than fade - DeChambeau, Henley, Young
Both, but more fade than draw - Cantlay, Schauffele
The Black Course has flat greens. A couple have some slope. Number 11 comes to mind from back to front, but for the most part, these putting surfaces are rather mundane. Statistically speaking, the United States has been better on TOUR with their flatstick, but this is a Ryder Cup. Measuring the possible putting performance by these two sides is a coin flip. My advice is to pay more attention to the pairings and the course fit. Who fits the assignment? Find the best pairing for the match. Those two will hit it closer to the pin versus their opponents. THEN, they will make more putts. Most fans just follow what happens with the flatstick when the edge really comes from the full swings.
The approach ranges are interesting this week. It truly is a tale of two sides. Five of the iron shots into the green are under 125 yards. Nine of them are over 175 yards, with the final four falling between 150 and 175 yards. Two of those 200+ targets are the par 5s. The Black Course is long, but as you can see, the players will have a bunch of opportunities to use a scoring iron. If we get the predicted rain, it will only make those close approaches even more important. It will help a four iron hold the putting surface, but finding your target from 100 yards will require mastery of spin and trajectory.
I saved one of the best course edges for last. Par 70 golf courses characteristically remove par 5s and replace them with par 4s. The Black Course does this in a way where it converts one 5 to a 4. The scorecard has 12 of these difficult two-shot tests. If we measure par 4 scoring for the two teams, the American side has a significant edge. Should Europe win this week, they will have played well above their average performance on the PGA TOUR's par 4s.
Up next is a breakdown of both teams. Wednesday's Ryder Cup narrative will cover much more than ball flight tendencies. Everything from ball speed to par scoring. Now that we understand the course characteristics, it's time to take a look at the player skill sets.
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