Black Desert Online 🏜️
Trips to winFor the third time in 12 months, professional golf is headed back to the Black Desert Resort. The Bank of Utah Championship is the new sponsor’s name, yet the venue remains the same. The inaugural event last October brought the PGA TOIUR back to Utah for the first time since 1963. The Black Desert Championship was won by Matt McCarty at 23 under par. Not to be outdone, the LPGA held its own Black Desert Championship in May. Haeran Ryu ran away with the title at 26 under par. Needless to say, our betting card is going to be full of birdie makers. Speaking of betting cards, how about the BMW Ladies final leaderboard. All FOUR outrights finished in the top 10! I realize we didn’t win, but there’s no doubt RTL will contend week after week in the outright market. Tournament officials are aware of both the previous LPGA and PGA TOUR final leaderboards. As such, they have added 50 yards to the scorecard (LOL). The Black Desert Resort Course now plays to a length of 7,421 yards and a par 71 for the men. Ivins, Utah, is 3,000 feet above sea level, so we will lose about 3.5% of the length due to elevation. Drop down to a 7,100-yard layout with three par 5s and two par 4s under 325, and your winning blueprint better include 25 sub-par scores. The top 10 last October averaged 24.7 birdies (or better). Much like the overall yardage at elevation, the purse has been reduced as well. The field of 132 players are playing for $6 million and $1.08 million to the winner. That’s a 20% drop from a year ago. 20%! If you missed it over the weekend, new PGA TOUR CEO Brian Rolapp made his first personnel moves in Ponte Vedra Beach. Two former NFL executives have been added to his C-Suite stable. Scarcity and the fall series are not mutually exclusive. If you love the course at Black Desert Resort, at least the ladies landed in southwest Utah. The days start crisp in the desert and will climb out of the 50s into the low 70s. There is no precipitation in the forecast and barely any breeze. With 51 acres of fairway across 18 holes, these men will have no problem setting themselves up to score. The BD Resort Course is built on a lava field. The main reason why the landing areas are so vast off the tee is the surrounding surface is rock. We saw some wild recovery shots last year by those who sent the ball astray. Players must keep it on the turf if they plan to play the weekend. Bank of Utah Championship starts in...Four holes have been lengthened (1, 3, 10, 18). Considering the conditions, this will not make a difference. Vegas still has the winning score over/under at 21.5 under par. Fifteen holes have a birdie rate of 15% or higher as compared to four holes that maintain a bogey rate over that same value. One edition does not provide much history, but when you add in the LPGA results and our knowledge of their players, we will be well ahead of the other handicapping pundits. Turns out their results reveal some secrets and validate a couple of the TOUR trends from last October. Speaking of scarcity, we have four events left in the FedEx Fall series, including the Bank of Utah Championship. Soak in the stunning sunsets and beautiful mountain ranges as they frame this beautiful birdie haven in the Black Desert. It’s time to break through again and continue our streak of positive year-end returns. Roll the rockOur predictive clues were on point a year ago. When the PGA TOUR visits a brand-new venue, the flatstick aficionados have an advantage. With ample landing area off the tee, the Black Desert Resort Course filters the field for competency the closer you get to the hole. Matt McCarty gained almost seven strokes (6.6) on the field with his putter. One factor that further amplified the importance of putting was the actual green size and contours. The average green is 7,100 sq/ft. Players recorded a bunch of three-putts last year. Nearly 14% more (on average) than the PGA TOUR standard. That is significant. Even though a majority of the field will be better prepared, having seen the course a year ago, it is a factor in predicting the winner. The top 10 gained an average of four strokes on the field with their flatstick. Of the four major strokes gained categories, putting led the way. That makes sense, for all of the reasons I outlined last year. Good putters gain on the field when you visit a new venue. They read the greens better, and they make more putts. Second in line and importance is approach play. Of all the fall series venues, Black Desert tends to test the iron game. Fifty-two percent of approach shots are played from over 175 yards. The TOUR average for that range is 40%. The top 10 from a year ago gained four strokes (3.8) on the field attacking these greens. Approach play gets amplified at a venue like Black Desert. With 84% of the players hitting the fairway, there are just two factors left to really differentiate the field: putting and iron play. With the standard of wedge play on TOUR being quite equal, long iron approaches on par 4s, second shots on par 5s, and this week, the field faces two par 3s over 195. Weigh the mid to long iron game sufficiently when you are looking for players to separate themselves. Seven of the final top 10 a year ago finished in the top 25 for strokes gained approach. The winner, McCarty gained a bunch around the green, but I believe that is a little bit skewed and not a feature you need to focus on. The greens are sizeable here and many of the up and downs require a pretty simple skill set. Television kept showing short game shots around the green from the lava rocks. It made for great TV. The field was hitting 76% of their GIRs. That 10% higher than the PGA TOUR average. If you were missing greens, you were essentially getting lapped by the field. The top 10 hit an average of 83% of their GIRs! Scrambling to score on the three par 5s or two short par 4s is imperative to scoring but saving pars I akin to competing in a fall scramble. If you are putting for pars, you have problems. Of the three par categories, players in contention gained significantly on the par 4s. The top 10 gained seven strokes on the field across the 11 par 4s, and Matt McCarty gained over nine strokes. With seven 4s over 450 yards in length (even at elevation) one can see why. The par 5s were next followed by the par 3s. Here are the hole ranges where guys gained the most.
Some yardage was added, so that par 4 category may climb to the 500+ range. Black Desert now has four of them. Tom Weiskopf loves risk-reward golf. His design at TPC Scottsdale is the archetype example on TOUR for aggressive play. Popular pundits are going to push the distance narrative this week. Eight of the final top 20 a year ago finished inside the top 25 in driving distance. McCarty was one of them and he won by three, but is eight enough? When the LPGA visited this venue in May, there was less of a correlation. Complete ball strikers who can putt should be the focus. Don’t get biased by the bombers. Five of the top 50, and 21 of the top 100 in the OWGR are competing this week. The remaining 106 players in the field fall outside the top 100! Aligning the proper skill set makes a huge difference. Most of the field are not week to week PGA TOUR players. Let’s look for the correct trending skill set and see if our current streak of contending can cross the finish line. Outright Winners - Bank of Utah ChampionshipUpcoming Fall Coverage Schedule 📅A few of you have asked when all of the remaining fall events take place. Here's a summary...
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