Built to last

We have six signature winners this season on the PGA TOUR. In those six starts, the average winner's pre-tournament odds were +2700. None were higher than +4000 (Russell Henley, Sepp Straka) and none lower than +1400 (Rory McIlroy). Their average OWGR before winning; ninth. Those same six individuals are now all ranked inside the top 10 of the OWGR.

• Hideki Matsuyama (7), Rory McIlroy (2), Ludvig Åberg (6), Russell Henley (8), Justin Thomas (5), Sepp Straka (9).

That's an impressive list, and I think it displays a unique trend. The upper middle class is winning these elevated events and then taking that momentum and continuing to climb the world rankings. Getting inside the top 10 in the OWGR is no immediate task. For players like Sepp Straka and Russell Henley, it has taken years of work. Maintaining that position is no easy accomplishment either. Justin Thomas was ranked thirtieth two years ago at the RBC Heritage, an event he just won. Ludvig was ranked 914 in the world two years ago when he left Texas Tech and turned professional!

Signature events are career launching pads, and one of the best springboards we have seen through the years is The Memorial Tournament presented by Workday. Jack's event has crowned some incredible players since 2000: Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa (Workday), Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Rose, and Tiger Woods! I think we are on the verge of seeing another elite player win and elevate themselves. This is going to be a great week for golf. The Memorial is the finest run event on TOUR, and the ladies will play in the US Women's Open. Clean off the couch, it's going to be a weekend to remember!

Jack's signature

Muirfield Village Golf Club is consistently ranked as one of the top 5 toughest tests on the PGA TOUR in recent years. In some seasons, it has played tougher than major championships. In 2019, Patrick Cantlay torched this course with a 19-under par final score. In the first of Patrick's two victories on this property, he exposed some weaknesses, registering 25 sub-scores that week in 72-holes. Jack had had enough, and the bulldozers were brought in after the 2020 edition. Since the course renovation, the average winning score at The Memorial is 10 under par. Well done Mr. Nicklaus. Seventy-two players are ready to take this year's exam. The top 50 (and ties), along with any player within 10 shots of the lead, will make the weekend. The purse is $20 million, and first place takes home $4 million. I'm not a big fan of limited field events, but at least Genesis, API, and The Memorial are close to being a solid solution for these next-generation money grabs.

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Keith's Keys 🗞️ A couple of key skills you can claim as your own at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. You can find complete explanations for each in the betting breakdown. Employee of the Week: Managing your way around Muirfield Village Golf Club is a skill that will set you up for great success this week. Or follow Scottie's lead and try and keep up! Short games: Small greens surrounded by deep bunkers, closely mown areas, and deep rough. The short game is a key factor in separating oneself on this course; the last five winners have gained an average of three strokes on the field around the green(s). I love my seven iron: MVGC sets up a bunch of 175-200 yard approaches. This is more than a wedge on approach. Be the king of this club range on approach, and you'll most certainly contend on Sunday.

The past two years, it has been incredibly hot in Dublin, Ohio, for the tournament. As such, the course played very firm and fast. The Columbus region received about 9/10 of an inch of rain last week. Tuesday's practice rounds also saw a little precipitation. It has been a cool, damp spring in middle America, and the course shows it. The four-inch rough is ridiculous, and the entire course is incredibly green. The overall health, along with Precision-Air under the green surfaces, will help the agronomy team create a perfect playing field. Temperatures are predicted to start each day in the mid-50s and top out in the low-70s. This is extremely good golf weather and a welcome break considering the conditions we were all walking through the last two years!

The Memorial starts in...

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Pay attention because The Memorial is going to be a great preview for the US Open in a couple of weeks. The two courses are about 200 miles apart and are commonly found in similar weather patterns. The agronomy conditions should play similarly and thus give us some clues on who can handle these specific types of greens and grasses. We haven't been to Oakmont in nine years. Much like the winner in 2016, Dustin Johnson, those leaderboards are gone. We have a new crop of elite players to handicap for one of golf's all-time greatest tests, and Muirfield Village will give us some clues. Muirfield Village Golf Club is a par 72 scorecard displaying 7,569 yards of great Golden Bear golf. Not known for creating a plethora of architecturally respected courses, all agree these 18 holes are his finest work.

Just start with the shortest holes, three of the four par 3s are inside the top six toughest holes on the course relative to par. Fourteen holes have a bogey rate over 15%. Take away the four par 5s and the short par 4 fourteenth, and just five holes have a birdie rate over 15%. Look at the last two winning scores: Scottie Scheffler at eight under par and Viktor Hovland one year earlier at seven under. Those two years were pretty crusty, but I still think the winner is right around the Vegas over/under for winning score; -9.5. The greens are small targets at 5,000 sq/ft, covered in Bentgrass, and surrounded by 50 bunkers. Sixty-eight bunkers dot the landscape in total, along with 13 holes that feature a water penalty area.

The four-inch rough should be pure cabbage; thick, juicy, and horrible if you find yourself in it. Eight of the top 10 in the OWGR have joined Jack this week. Bryson (OWGR 10) is not eligible, and Rory McIlroy is heading to TPC Toronto in a week instead of taking this major-worthy test. It's great that he goes to Canada every year, and this field does not need any more star power. Many of whom sit in that middle range on the odds board. Let's call them Henley hopefuls. Can Fairway Jesus (Tommy Fleetwood) rise from the ashes of 27 top 5 finishes? Or will the Irish Bear (Shane Lowry) get a handshake from the Golden Bear on Sunday after a decade of close calls since his first PGA TOUR victory in 2015? Those are two worthy souls, but we all know the golf gods do not have a heart. Winning on the PGA TOUR is very hard (see - Ben Griffin Sunday), and crossing this finish line will take even more resolve than capturing the Charles Schwab.

Surely Scheffler will probably win by three or four, but if the signature trend tells us anything, those men in the middle will have a say at some point this upcoming Sunday.

A gifted approach

Not many venues have hosted a US Amateur (1992 - Justin Leonard), Ryder Cup (1987 - Europe), Presidents Cup (2013 - United States), and a PGA TOUR event for nearly 50 years. Sure, it is Jack Nicklaus' home course, but much like the Golden Bear himself, Muirfield Village continues to evolve with the professional game. Few par-72 scorecards can curtail scoring like MVGC. When you take a 30,000-foot view of the property, it can be tough to decipher why. Sure, the golf course is long, but length seldom slows these guys down. TPC Craig Ranch was 7,600 yards, and Scottie Scheffler shot 31 under par!

I love going to Dublin for this event. Every detail is designed to appreciate the experience one receives when they visit, just like The Masters. Nicklaus loved Augusta National and Muirfield. Both designs do one thing incredibly well: test your decision-making. What always stands out when I'm walking with the competitors at MVGC is watching them go through their options. Jack presents so many wonderful risk-reward opportunities around these 18 holes, and as a result, course management is one strokes gained category we cannot emphasize enough. That's not to say a debutant couldn't win here, but rather MVGC favors players who are willing to take what the golf course gives them, rather than attacking it with a pure scoring mentality.

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In saying this, Scottie Scheffler is the first and last name you need to know when coming here. This is why Tiger Woods was so successful at MVGC. The careful combination of planning and precision is how you climb the leaderboard. Muirfield Village requires an attention to detail that most PGA TOUR venues do not. Here's a quick breakdown:

• MVGC favors a left-to-right ball flight off the tee. A fade for righties and a draw bias for lefties. Look at the past champions: Woods, Matsuyama, Rahm, Cantlay, Morikawa (Workday), Hovland, etc. Now, consider the best players in the world who have not won here. Rory McIlroy has 13 starts and just two top 5s, and Xander Schauffele has one top 10 in seven starts. Two world-class players who love to move the ball opposite the Golden Bear off the tee.
• Strokes gained around the green have only increased in importance since the 2020 renovation. The green complexes are small at MVGC, considering the length required to get there. Twelve of the final top 20 on the final leaderboard were inside the top 15 for SG:ARG. You cannot hit every GIR, and this layout has a great blend of bunkers, closely mown areas, and deep rough surrounding these green surfaces. Take players who are trending with their short game.
• Half of the successful short game formula comes down to converting on the green. Putting also helps one score, and the last 10 winners have averaged 21 BoB scores the week they won. Even Viktor Hovland had 19 sub-scores when he beat Denny McCarthy in a playoff two years ago. They tied at seven under par! Jack's putting surfaces can get a little wild at times, so much like Augusta National, you don't have to be the greatest putter to win here. Just make the putts you should convert and two-putt the long ones.
• There are four primary strokes gained categories: OTT, ARG, Putt, and APP. I saved the best for last. Just like Muirfield and Augusta National, Nicklaus has designed a true iron players' kingdom. Scheffler gained 13 strokes on approach last year and finished at 8 under par. The year before, Scottie gained 12 strokes on approach. You can REALLY separate at MVGC with your iron game. These are the guys we are searching for.

Confidence on contact from 500 yards, 150 yards, and 20 yards will be tested. A complementary player who can lead the field in proximity from 175-200 and scramble is our ideal candidate. The last five champions have gained 11 strokes on the field playing the par 4s, and they do a majority of their scoring damage on the par 5s. Bogey avoidance and birdie acumen, sounds like we are handicapping a major championship! Even if Scottie wins this tournament by 10, there will be a ton to ascertain from this competition. Picking the outright is always the goal, but developing a successful betting card means we also pick Harry Hall to finish top 10 at Colonial (+600), or Bryson to finish second at Quail Hollow (+700).

Muirfield Village Golf Club is part Augusta National and part TPC Scottsdale, and that's what makes it an incredible venue. Long-term success is built on a careful game plan of making aggressive swings to conservative targets. Sounds easy, but it can be very tough not to fire at a specific pin from 165 yards with a nine iron. Just look at these par ranges where players differentiate.

• Par 3 - 175-200
• Par 4 - 450-500
• Par 5 - 500-550

Many of these men hit an eight iron from 180! I love this week because it truly does separate the men from the boys. With a venue like Oakmont approaching in two weeks, what better way to understand who is and who is not ready for our national championship?

Outright Winners - The Memorial

Press conferences can be very revealing. Viktor Hovland’s interview on Tuesday was quite positive. Hovland spoke energetically about his game since the PGA Championship and felt good about his prospects for this week. Viktor should; he’s ranked fourth in the field over his last 24 rounds on approach and ranks in the top three in proximity from 175-200 yards. Hovland has won here because he puts the ball in scoring position. We need a player who can track down Scheffler and beat him. Hovland has done it before, and it sounds like he’s ready to do it again. Viktor Hovland +2800 (w/o Scheffler)

Si Woo Kim has joked several times recently that he cannot beat Scottie Scheffler. Who better to win The Memorial than Kim (or come in second)! The truth is, Si Woo is gaining six strokes per start against the field over his last five events. A big part of that success has been a reliable putter. Kim now comes back to a venue where he has five straight top 18 results. Kim can hit fairways, knock down pins, and has gained strokes with his short game in five straight starts. Take the underdog in Si Woo and let’s see if he can surprise Mr. Scheffler. Si Woo Kim +4000 (w/o Scheffler)

Over the hills and far away

The 80th US Women's Open takes place about an hour west of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, at Erin Hills. A fabulous golf destination, the course came to life in 2006. This will be Erin Hills' fifth USGA event, you may remember the course from Brooks Koepka's record-tying 16 under par US Open victory back in 2017. The course fell under a ton of criticism from USGA zealots, claiming it was far too easy to measure our national champion. Brooks did go on to repeat as our US Open winner in 2018 and add three more major trophies for those who think Erin Hills was an unsatisfactory test. If you take a closer look at the 2017 final top 10, including Koepka, five of them (Brian Harman, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele (2), Justin Thomas) went on to win major championships after 2017!

How will the women measure up to this magnificent golf setting? Get ready for incredible drone coverage and impeccable imagery on paper and television, as this setting is something to behold. It must be, because the course is nowhere near a major city or civilization, for that matter. I'm hopeful the LPGA ladies can draw decent crowds for their biggest event of the year, but this is a big ask. At least Lancaster Country Club (2024) was only about an hour outside of Philadelphia. This is in the middle of Wisconsin! In any case, a field of 156 players will compete for the largest purse in women's golf. The top 60 and ties make the weekend and will share a $12 million. Twenty-four of the top 25 in the Rolex World Rankings are on property, a stark difference to last week, when not one player in the top 10 made the trek to Mexico.

US Women's Open starts in...

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Is Nelly Korda still the best player in the world? Korda's last win came in November, and she is NOT the betting favorite; it is Jenno Thitikul. As a quick aside, Jeeno's name change in the middle of last year was awesome. Atthaya's a nice name and all, but Jeeno? Jeeno is a player's name. I digress, Korda, Thitikul, and the other 154 players will be taking on a monster of a course. The par 72 layout covers 6,829 yards. I know the Nicklaus Signature course at Carlton Woods was 82 yards longer on the official scorecard, but we are in Wisconsin, in May, and there's some serious terrain to this place. The last thing these ladies need is rain, as the course will play long no matter what.

It just so happens; the region has received 1.86" of rain in the last week. We have even seen showers throughout the practice round days. Maybe this is why so many stars skipped the trip south of the border. I believe capturing the national championship is going to take some serious physical and mental effort. Erin Hills has 132 bunkers and fairways lined with tall fescue and 3.5" rough. That's not the part I'm most concerned about. Take a look at these green complexes. The greens are an average of 6,500 sq/ft in size, and they are surrounded by run-offs, slopes, swales, all manicured with closely mown grass. Better sharpen those wedges as Erin Hills positions most of the green complexes above the players on approach.

A second twist to this national championship tale happens off the tee. Many of the tee shots are blind, either over mounds of blowing fescue or to landing areas that are sunken beyond being able to see. It's a cute collection of par 3s, but beyond the one-shot holes, the average par 4 is 403 yards long, and the four par 5s all measure over 510! The top 10 from 2017 was an eye-catching blend of power and wedge finesse. This week, I’m going to lean on that wedge wizardry over power. A true parkland test, there is only one water penalty area on the course, and it does not come into play. It's time to manage your golf ball amongst average Wisconsin temperatures (70H/55L) and 10-12 mph of breeze for four days. There's a small chance of rain on Thursday, but that won't slow these women down.

The course will be soft and receptive. Moderate temps and damp conditions for the past week will help these ladies throw down some low scores. I don't believe we'll see 16 under, but I do think the final tally can get to double digits. The last time we saw a winner that low was Minjee Lee in 2022 (-13) at Pine Needles. It's only week 12 on the LPGA schedule, and we have our second major. We will check off two more in the next six weeks. Watch for the stars to make a move this week and start building toward something special for 2025.

The best shepherd

The secret to Erin Hills is the green surrounds. The putting surfaces have a ton of movement the most of which comes near the edges. These borders melt off like a Salvador Dalí clock. Good shots are going to result in chips and pitches by the time the ball stops rolling. I hope we can get some firmness to the fairways and greens, but it's been wet. Should we see some real bounce, this first skill set will be even more amplified. All USGA events test the putter. In the 2024 and 2025 US Women's Open, five of the top 10 players on the leaderboard were inside the top 10 for strokes gained putting. The largest concentration of any of the four major strokes gained categories. Our defending champion, Luka Saso, gained 6.5 strokes more on the greens (+4.5) than she did on approach (-2.0). I wouldn't count on this ratio to help you win every year, but you’d better gain at least three or four strokes on the greens if you want to contend.

Around the green acumen is another specific skill set I am emphasizing. Wait until you see these green surrounds. They have wicked contours and extreme bunkering. There are 120+ bunkers on the course! These bunkers have jagged edges and odd outcroppings. Short games are going to be tested. If there's one area that the best female players in the world are deficient in as a whole, it is short game. Do we have a couple of standout stars like Lydia Ko with a wedge, yes, but neither Thitikul nor Korda is ranked inside the top 50 for their SG: ARG play on tour. I weighted sand play extra as part of this particular point of emphasis. Everyone is going to see some bunker time, and if you are a contender, it will mean the difference between winning and losing.

What I love most about Erin Hills is the constant juxtaposition of skills being tested by the course. In 2017, hole three was the easiest fairway to hit and the hardest GIR to find. Another great example that puts the players on tilt is the sixth green. The green has a huge false front combined with a putting surface beyond the first third, which pitches from front to back. Needless to say, a little extra practice time might be needed on the course. Imagine the margin for error on that approach shot. Arrive a little short, and it runs off the front. Ensure you get it over the false front, and it runs to the back. Talk about a treacherous up and down, imagine finding yourself at the base of the front run-off.

Approach play in that 150-200 yard range is going to be critical as the sixth is a 184-yard par 3. Three is a 435-yard par 4, the second longest on the front side. Similar to the PGA TOUR, long iron play is one of, if not the best, way to differentiate yourself from the field. To compound the better player advantage, the women only see this level of approach test at a major championship. Not to mention, this is only their twelfth event of the season, and for the majority, just their second event since their last major in April. The best players can regain form very quickly. That's what makes them the best players. Having the ability to bounce back and continue to play well or find it when you can't compete every week is a skill, and one certain players have more than others.

I'm slightly favoring length over accuracy off the tee. These fairways are wide for a US Open. Erin Hills has 40 acres of landing area for the driver. It was a talking point of USGA fans in 2017, and they are not making these fairways any slighter than they were eight years ago. Length wasn't the ultimate advantage the last time we had a US Open here, but it did help many players climb the leaderboard more easily than their counterparts. I'll never forget a college kid named Cam Champ who was T8 after 36 holes. This was Champ's coming-out party to the golf world, and he was long. I still remember places he hit the golf ball on this course that no player reached all week.

We can use some scoring stats like strokes gained scoring and birdie to bogey ratio. We've got bogey avoidance covered with the heavy weight I've placed on short game and scrambling, but how often do players score versus make a mistake? That ratio will be vital. If the winning score approaches 10 under par, scorers who limit their mistakes are going to be the best outright bets. An average length par 4 over 400 yards, and you know I'm favoring par 4 scoring. An average of over 400 yards is long by LPGA standards. My final consideration is not just form, but finishes in the US Women's Open. This event has an identity, and it fits some (Yuka Saso) and not others... Nelly?

Korda has missed the cut in two of her last four US Open starts, along with a sixty-fourth place in 2023. What doesn't work for her? It's tough to say other than the national championship is the toughest on-course mental examination of the year. It frays the edges and makes one question their sanity in ways no other week does. Bring on the meltdowns and endless drone views of sheep grazing. Erin Hills is a wonderful landscape ready to add one more name to the list of 79 US Women’s Open champions.

Outright winners - US Women's Open

Lydia Ko loves a good challenge. Last year, Ko earned her way into the Hall of Fame and won her third Olympic medal in three tries. Not only did she win a medal, but grabbed the one medal she needed: gold. Lydia is looking for the career grand slam in women's golf. The one missing piece from a legendary career. Where she lacks in length, Ko will more than make up for in scoring from close range. Sixth in SG: ARG, eighth in SG: Scoring, and ninth in birdie-to-bogey ratio, Ko's game is perfectly suited to win at Erin Hills. Lydia Ko +2200

Celine Boutier plays golf like a grand master plays chess. Much like Furue, Boutier excels on courses where accuracy and iron play are rewarded. Twelfth at the Black Desert Championship, followed by a runner-up finish at the Mizuho, Celine's last two starts shine. Talk about consistency this year, in 11 starts, Boutier has nine top 30 results and five top 15s. Seventeenth in putting, fourteenth in scrambling, and fifteenth in sand saves (don't forget the 132 bunkers), this major champion has what we need to win from deep down the odds board. Celine Boutier +4000

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