FedEx five

The finality of the FedEx Fall might be setting in very soon. Just five events remain for those who have their sights set on the top 100. The Baycurrent Classic was formerly known as The ZOZO Championship. Still contested in Japan, the PGA TOUR has crossed the Pacific and will be playing on Wednesday night! That is not a mistake. Get your betting card and DFS lineups set this afternoon. A field of 78 players is in Yokohama, Japan. Situated just southwest of Tokyo, their host Yokohama Country Club is ranked the number one public golf facility in Japan! Fourteen of the top 50 and 37 of the top 100 (OWGR) are in this four-round no-cut field. Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, and Hideki Matsuyama are playing alongside 14 members of the Japan Golf Tour Organization (JGTO) and four sponsor exemptions. The event has a new name, a new venue, and a lower purse. The players are competing for $8 million, and the winner receives a check for $1.44 million.

One million plus for first-place is nice, but a majority of these guys need to secure their 2026 TOUR card. A couple in the middle range would love to get inside the fall top 10 and earn those early-season signature entries. Based on the show we saw Sunday at the Sanderson, these guys are locked in for the next six weeks.

Japan's finest

Yokohama Country Club is a 36-hole facility home to the East and West Courses. No stranger to championship golf, officials use a special routing for major events. Sixteen holes are taken from the West Course and two holes from the East layout. The total scorecard adds up to a par 71 layout covering 7,315 yards. I suspect these folks know what they are doing, as the final 11 holes consist of 10 par 4s and one par 3. That is going to be one heck of a finish and definitely favors the best par 4 players. In the remote chance you have played Yokohama, here are the actual hole numbers and the order for the Baycurrent Classic.

• Front 9: Hole 1 (10W), Hole 2 (11W), Hole 3 (12W), Hole 4 (13W), Hole 5 (14W), Hole 6 (15W), Hole 7 (16W), Hole 8 (17W), Hole 9 (18W)
• Back 9: Hole 10 (1W), Hole 11 (4W), Hole 12 (5W), Hole 13 (6W), Hole 14 (7W), Hole 15 (8W), Hole 16 (9W), Hole 17 (17E), Hole 18 (18E)

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Keith's Keys 🗞️ A couple of key skills you can claim as your own at the water cooler and cocktail party conversations. You can find complete explanations for each in the betting breakdown. T2G: A new course will test all aspects of your game. While putting and approach play will give you an edge, it will take a complete complement of skills to defeat four of the top 20 players in the world. Fab 4: Yokohama CC has 13 par 4s! Par 4 scoring is the secret sauce needed for Sunday success. Adaptation: There are 78 rookies in the field for the Baycurrent Classic. The quicker you can adjust to a new venue (and time zone!), the faster you will climb the leaderboard.

If you don't remember reading about Yokohama CC, it's okay. This is the first time the newly named ZOZO has been contested here. Not just the best public course on the island, but inside Golf Digest's ranking for the top 5 tracks in Japan. When we have a new venue, the research team has to go deep. Especially when that course is located halfway around the world! The 83rd Japan Open was played at YCC in 2018, and the winning score was 14 under par. The strength of this field is considerably better, but I don't see this event as a full-blown birdiefest. The course has 73 bunkers and six holes where water comes into play. Several tree-lined holes and a bunch with closely mown areas around the greens. Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw laid down their handiwork here in 2015. Those two are incredible at using the land movement under and around the green complexes.

Baycurrent Classic starts in...

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The forecast for round one on Thursday looks wild. Too bad it will take place in the middle of the night for us. A storm system will be leaving the region on Thursday morning. In doing so, the wind forecast for noon and beyond Thursday is 20+ mph out of the northeast. With an average green size of 6,500 sq/ft, and a challenging design, picking a first-round leader might be near impossible. Remember, this is a small field. Tee times are organized in threesomes going off from 8:45 am to 10:57 am local time. Tee it up tomorrow after 10:00 am, and you will compete in the worst conditions if this forecast holds up. Once the storm system moves out on Thursday evening, the remainder of the tournament looks dry. Temperatures will be in mid 70s, and the wind should calm down into the low teens over the weekend. All of that could change at a moment's notice, so please use the real-time weather button below.

With scoring in the mid to high teens, and knowing Coore-Crenshaw's tendencies, it will take a very well-balanced week to win. Go heavy on T2G and the flatstick. This one-off fall Japan event is about as random on the schedule as the list of past champions. Including just the overseas editions, Hideki, Keegan, Nico, Collin, and Tiger have won. All of those were played at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club. A much different design, we need a new list of comp courses to help us predict the outcome at Yokohama. Knowing the desired skill set, and course features, I like venues that allow scoring to better ball strikers. Forget TPC Craig Ranch, we are looking at TPC San Antonio, Innisbrook, TPC River Highlands, Congaree, TPC Deere Run, and I also like East Lake. Courses that force you to use the ground to score. Venues where accuracy reigns over length by at least a 60/40 ratio.

The Vegas over/under for the winning score is 19.5 under par. If any players plan to surpass that, they have 13 par 4s per round to produce sub-par scores. I'm treating this layout much like a par 70, where we commonly see 12 par 4s. One year ago, the TOUR added the Black Desert Resort's Championship course to the schedule, and now we have another new fall venue. I believe this setting will be super interesting. Set your DVR, and make sure you catch some/most of this tournament. You can't blame football this weekend. Give golf a good run and I bet you'll be richer by the time you wake up on Sunday morning!

Coore skills

If you get a chance, take a look at this golf course online. Coore and Crenshaw have done a wonderful job of creating a varied test of golf across an incredible selection of Tokyo terrain. The first course characteristic that caught my eye was the bunkering. Now, C&C are known for their strategy when it comes to the sand. Yokohama is a true parkland golf layout; grass, sand, and a smattering of water. The penalty areas, sand and otherwise, really attract your eye and almost take it away from the real genius of this layout, the topography. I'll get back to the bunkers, but the landscape led to one incredible green complex after another. The subtleties in the surfaces will be the difference maker. At the risk of being redundant, good putters have an advantage on brand new venues for two reasons. First, they read greens better than an average player. Second, they take that knowledge, adapt, and make more putts. As we come into a new venue with a majority of the field made up of middle-tier PGA TOUR pros, I'm leaning into the best flatstick aficionados.

Surrounding the green surfaces are several challenging run-offs, swales, hills, depressions, bunkers... I think you get the point. Many of these around the green areas look quite simple, but when you add in the uniqueness of the greens, short game will play a role in determining our winner. Tonight and tomorrow's rain will help the field hold more GIRs, but overall, I see a very complete test. Are putting and approach the first two skills I'm looking at? Yes. As we work our way away from the hole, don't skip the green surrounds. This is why TPC San Antonio, East Lake, Congaree, etc. are great comps. The closer you get to the hole, the more challenging it gets.
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The hole pictured above is a 337-yard par 4 we see late in the round. It looks simple enough, but subtle contours will define whether or not your strategy is successful. With all of the terrain changes, a bounce here or there will definitely define your week. Get used to those jagged bunker edges. You will be seeing those all over the property. Thirteen par 4s represent as much variety as the overall course design. While I'm on the subject of scoring, keep an eye on the best par 70 players. Why? Most par 70 scorecards have 12 par 4s. Yokohama CC has 13 of them. For this championship routing, the final par 5 comes on hole six. Eight of the 13 par 4s are under 450 yards in length. Those are scoring holes if you hit the fairway and create scoring opportunities with your iron game.

YCC has a ton of mid and scoring iron approach shots. Dial up the pitching wedge through seven iron and take dead aim. Forget who hits the most GIRs in that "range,” we’d rather know who will create the most birdie chances. The top 8 approach players at the Sanderson Farms gained over five strokes on the field. Those players were not hitting off Zoysia fairways, but it is going to take a positive seven or eight stroke gain on approach to win. Four guaranteed rounds will promote aggressive play. The field will be firing at every flagstick. I'm focused on those players who have a very high floor on approach. A spike week would be nice, but the card is covered in players who bring a ton of talent with their iron game.

Let's quickly go back to the 2018 Japan Open won by Yuki Inamori at 14 under par. This was a 72-hole event where only two players finished double digits under par. I realize the strength of field is far different than the Baycurrent Classic, but take a moment and scroll back up to that course picture. If you get a little wide of your target at YCC, there is going to be a penalty. The DNA of Inamori's game is accuracy. When it comes to your OTT acumen, we are going to favor fairways over speed. I have not seen deep Zoysia rough alongside these fairways, but don’t be misled. The approach advantage comes from the fairway. That is where players will have the best proximity average to the hole. That is my key off the tee. I believe the winner will be in the 18-20 under par range. As such, I'm not weighing bogey avoidance as an impactful measure, but rather taking that focus and placing it on weighted T2G. This is why comp venues like TPC River Highlands, TPC Deere Run, and Innisbrook make sense. Similar strength of field and penalty for going astray.

We saw some incredible T2G play in Mississippi and Napa. The fall series events require guys to go low. Our outright card exemplifies strong putters who have proven approach ability and go low on par 4s. Our strategy is simple and direct. Add in the leaderboards from several comp venues, and we have a card that will definitely contend come very early Sunday morning.

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Outright Winners - Baycurrent Classic

We first met Garrick Higgo in 2021. Higgo won twice (in three weeks) on the DP World Tour, recording record sub-par scores. A month later, Garrick was a PGA TOUR winner. Runner-up in Mississippi on Sunday, Higgo’s game is seriously trending. Higgo finished seventh at the Procore and has gained an average of 12+ strokes on the field in his last two PGA TOUR starts. The showmanship on Sunday at the Sanderson means Garrick is uber confident. Considering we have 78 rookies in the field for this first-time venue, I’m choosing the hottest golfer. Garrick Higgo +4500 (BR)

One trending golfer I’ve been watching closely is Gary Woodland. Woodland has gained over six strokes on the field in three straight events. The last of those contests was the Procore in September, so he has carried that solid ball striking through the playoff break. Three straight events with great OTT and approach play, the putter has even cooperated for the recent Ryder Cup Vice Captain. Although it was another course, Woodland also had overseas success in this event, finishing fifth in 2019. Gary Woodland +5500 (FD)

Runners up

Two years ago, RTL picked Angel Yin to win the Buick LPGA Shanghai. It was Yin's first win on tour and cashed a very nice +5000 ticket. Fast forward to 2024, and we finished with two players tied for second place: Sei Young Kim and Mao Saigo. For the fifth time since 2018, we are heading back to the Qizhong Garden Golf Club in Shanghai, China. We missed a couple of years due to COVID (2020-2022), but this venue has been good to us. Eighty-two players are in the field for this four-round shoot-out. Ruoning Yin won last year at 25 under par. Yin played her weekend in 127 shots! I don't expect the field to go that low again, but I do believe we will see a winner in the high teens. The odds board is extremely top-heavy, which will create a challenge. Five of the top 10 on the Rolex Rankings are playing alongside just 21 of the top 50.

This limited field event does have a nice purse. The women will be playing for $2.2 million and a first-place check of $330,000. We saw on Sunday, the streak continues. Twenty-six different winners on tour in 2025. History usually fills this leaderboard with past successful Buick players. Of the 82 in the field, four are sponsors' exemptions, and 15 are from the China Golf Association. Twenty-five players in the field have not competed at Qizhong Garden before. Just another reason why eight players have sub +2000 outright odds. I believe the books are trying to tell us something. I doubt that message reached Hawaii, as last week's winner Youmin Hwang started the week at +15000!

Buick LPGA Shanghai starts in...

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Qizhong Garden GC is a par 72 layout measuring 6,703 yards. The standard scorecard of four par 3s and 5s complemented by 10 par 4s. Twelve holes have water in play, and the course is covered in bunkers with tree-lined fairways. It is a target test for these women. One change to the golf course since last year, 31 yards have been added to the par 5 seventeenth hole. What I find most interesting are the winners of the first four Buick LPGAs. Danielle Kang won the first two, then Angel Yin, and Ruoning Yin. Kang and (Ruoning) Yin are ball strikers. Excellent on approach and OTT, their careers have been all about accuracy. Angel, on the other hand, is an average ball striker (at best) and the LPGA's #1 ranked putter year after year. She has improved since this win, but at the time, it is a stark contrast to the other two. The common thread we are looking for is ball striking, but we know a strong putter will definitely help.

The women have a great forecast for the Buick. Temperatures should reach the low 90s each day, and there is little chance of precipitation. Qizhong Garden is sufficiently landlocked. It should be hot and the breeze is only going to blow in the 8-12 mph range. We are looking at excellent scoring conditions for this four-round field. Similar to the men's situation, elite players are going to ramp their play up toward Sunday's final round. Giving the best in the world a free cutline is a recipe for a tight odds board. The LPGA has six events left before the top 60 cut for the tour championship. Five of those six events are on Asian time. There are only 63 LPGA players in this field. That's a great opportunity for many of these women to attack, earn points, and solidify their spot in the final event. Both the PGA TOUR and LPGA are counting down. Great weather, great venue, and elite players create great drama. We keep contending week after week. Two of our four outrights were inside the top 8 after 36 holes at the LOTTE. Let's combine a little course history and our recent form to grab a win on the first leg of this fall Asian swing.

Pop quiz

Just like the men, the women get started tonight! Please pay attention to the countdown timer above. Up until Ruoning Yin went nuclear on the weekend (63-64), many players and pundits thought Qizhong Garden was a difficult test. Nine under par after 72 holes did not get you inside the top 20 one year ago. Why the shift in scoring? Looking back, the course conditions were very similar to how they currently look as we approach this week. With Yin's 25 under total, I believe players will be very aggressive attacking these hole locations. Compounding the conditions with a weak LPGA field and we might just see our first repeat winner from the elite end of this betting board.

Scoring starts with the outright skill set. The average winning score of the last five LPGA events is 19 under par. Even the rain cancelled Walmart leaders were eight under par after round one. I see a significant scoring trend on the tour, and that's great for the fans. It adds to the drama and creates incredible endings. In my Buick research, I noticed players can make putts at QGGC. Backing the better putters always makes sense, but we also want the elite putters who have been popping with the putter lately. Even with the added 31 yards to the par 5 seventeenth, the field will take advantage of the 5s. The scoring average for the last couple of top 10 leaderboards is under 4.6 on this par category. To narrow down the best Buick scorers even more, I'm adding in strokes gained scoring and putts per GIR. By aggregating this information, I can build a list of the best Buick players, which we know has worked for this venue.

Putting leads to scoring and scoring chances come from solid ball striking. Qizhong Garden is one of the few courses on the LPGA schedule where I weigh T2G play heavily. Most weeks, if we select the best approach players and putters, we contend. I'm extending the skill set to include around the green play and OTT. Based upon the low scoring, I'm not considering ARG for saving pars, but rather scoring on the 5s and five par 4s under 400 yards. Looking to win the Buick, you’d better be good with a wedge in your hand, and if you want to make our card. One par 3 under 150 yards, four par 5s, and five short par 4s give us 10 approach shots with a scoring club. The path to 20 under par again involves relying on an incredible wedge game this week. The LPGA does measure proximity. It sounds unbelievable, but the top 10 last year averaged hitting 80% of their GIRs.

The balance across T2G play reveals why QGGC is a great venue for the LPGA tour. It really does take a well-rounded attack to perform. Will this be the week we get our first repeat winner of 2025? One competitor who could have definitely kept the streak going was Nelly Korda. Nelly is yet to win after seven titles in 2024. Citing injury issues, Korda won't be back until she defends her 2024 ANNIKA title in November. A big hit for the tour not to have her as an ambassador in Asia. Nonetheless, this is a venue and an odds board where a repeat champion can collect number two in ‘25. Keep an eye on your clocks and set those DVRs. These ladies are about to go deep at the Garden Club in Shanghai.

Outright winners - Buick LPGA Shanghai

The best candidate to keep the winner streak alive is Sei Young Kim. Consistently contending all year, Kim has yet to capture a championship in 2025. In her last three completed Buick starts, Sei Young has finished second (twice!) and sixth. Qizhong allows a little room off the tee, which helps Kim. After the driver goes back in the bag, few are better at scoring than SYK. She got to 19 under last year and must be the career strokes gained Buick leader on the property. Third at the FM and fifth at the Kroger if she does win, we won't be surprised. Sei Young Kim +1400 (DK)

She led the Walmart after round one and just finished third in Hawaii. Minami Katsu is on a ball-striking heater. Only Hyo Joo Kim gained more strokes at the LOTTE. A true sub-par scoring machine, Katsu has a very effective putter. Minami is ranked second on tour for putts per GIR. When she starts gaining T2G, she contends because her putter is a powerful tool. A tenth-place result in Canada, she has been hot since the late summer. As long as the iron game stays strong, this 50-1 long shot has tremendous upside in a very favorite heavy field. Minami Katsu +5000 (BR)

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