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Congratulations to Andrea Lee for the first LPGA win of her career. Andrea was on our outright list last week at +4500.
That's outright win #11 this year and win #6 for the LPGA season. Considering the ladies have only played 24 events, that's one win in every 4 tournaments for Read The Line. Couple that with very little analytics to support the women's game and those wins become even more meaningful.
Our mission is to create the best golf betting community in the world. I believe winning is an important part of every RTL membership. That feeling of sweating the last hole with a win on the line is like nothing else. We all experienced that on Sunday and will again soon.
This year marks the 14th edition of the Presidents Cup matches. Team USA has won eleven, tied one, and lost once. The host venue is the Quail Hollow Club just outside of Charlotte, North Carolina. QHC has also hosted the 2017 PGA Championship and the Wells Fargo Championship on the PGA Tour fifteen times. The Par 71 over 7,600 yard layout is perfect for match play. The scorecard blends an incredible amount of power needed alongside a tremendous requirement for touch around the green complexes.
This week in Charlotte we expect perfect weather for the Cup. Temperatures reach their highest on Thursday afternoon in the low 90's. Then on Saturday morning at the beginning of two sets of matches, it will be mid-50's around tee-off time. We have a dry week in store as only traces of rain are predicted. The area has been reasonably dry lately and from walking the golf course I can tell the setting is firm and fast. A steady breeze will keep the team's attention throughout the four days of competition (approx. 10-12mph).
Considering the entire format of play is head-to-head matches, each round is like Sunday NFL football. Two teams stand and compete against one another to determine a winner. Just like the NFL, you can get ties, so pay attention. The culmination of the week comes when all twelve team members face off mano y mano on Sunday for all the glory. A live golf bettor's ultimate day. Most experts have Team USA as heavy favorites (-700). I can assure you, just betting the Americans will not get the job done. I have a thoughtful approach prepared, but first a couple more details.
Each team is comprised of twelve players. Team USA is made up of Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Kevin Kisner, Billy Horschel, Scottie Scheffler, Cam Young, Max Homa, and Sam Burns. The USA's Captain is Davis Love III. On the International Team we have Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, KH Lee, Si Woo Kim, Mito Pereira, Adam Scott, Corey Conners, Cam Davis, Taylor Pendrith, Sebastián Muñoz, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. The International team Captain is Trevor Immelman.
True, the American Team is favored. But why? With a quick look at the analytics, it's not hard to see there's quite a difference between the two.
What will keep it close? Each player only must play one team match and the singles on Sunday. This will help hide some of the depth on the International side.
The Quail Hollow Club is big. Any course over 7,600 yards is a monster. That kind of length means power will be key. If you look at the past champions list, Rory, Vijay, Homa, etc. all drive the ball long and effectively. Anthony Kim even comes to mind as an example of a player who can overpower a course like this. Scoring will be very interesting and entertaining to watch. The main reason why is the new routing the PGA Tour has utilized. No longer will the famous Quail Hollow "Green Mile" be the three finishing holes.
Instead, the Green Mile has been moved in the routing to holes 13, 14, and 15. The average Ryder Cup/President's Cup match ends around the 15/16th hole. If they left those holes where they fall on the card, most matches would never see them. Now they are featured at the most crucial moments in the match. Here are the other changes in the course layout.
This is a major championship golf course. Thirteen of the holes have a bogey rate of over 20%! It is not for the faint of heart and combined with the pressure of a team match play atmosphere, I believe it will be a very entertaining spectacle in Charlotte.
There have been some tweaks over the years, but the format for these matches is really good. There are 30 points up for grabs. Teams earn a point for winning a match. Each team receives half of a point for any match that is tied after eighteen holes. The first team to 15.5 points, wins the Presidents Cup. If both teams tie at 15, the match is considered a tie and the two teams share the Cup as they did in 2003.
Here's the match schedule as decided upon by the home captain:
Foursome's play is better known as alternate shot. Each team will determine who tees off on the odd holes and the other partner will tee off on the even holes. Once they tee off, the players alternate until the ball is holed. Fourball is easy to remember since there are four balls in play. Each team of two players takes their best score and matches it against the other team's best score. Both forms of play use match play scoring where teams can win, lose or halve (tie) a hole. Once a team is up more holes than there are left, the match is decided.
This is by far the coolest part of the Presidents Cup.
The ultimate matchup moment comes on Saturday evening when the singles pairings are announced. Captains can basically pick who plays who to highlight the best matchups for the week. In a world where we all draft fantasy teams every day and pick winners for the weekend, Sunday's singles matchups are an unreal thrill to watch unfold.
The Golf Channel combine to bring us the Presidents Cup.
The fall season is building for the LPGA. The Portland Classic has been a mainstay on the tour for many years, but the location is killer on strength of the field. As we drift back toward the middle of the country, we have gained a couple more of the best women players in the game. The Walmart NW Arkansas Championship presented by Procter and Gamble was first played in 2007. The purse of $2.7 million is enough to catch your attention.
Pinnacle Country Club has been the host venue of this event since its inception. This is one of those cases where the scorecard doesn't tell half the story. It is a Par 71, 6,438 yard layout with danger lurking around just about every corner. Let's first start with the scorecard:
Those five Par 3's catch our attention quickly. Not just on the scorecard, but also on the course. Each of these one-shot holes has water. In fact, fifteen of the eighteen holes are decorated with the wet stuff. The course isn't long and that aids the scoring, but one bad swing can lead to a double bogey. Players will need to keep their ball in play the entire round to keep up with the leaders.
Sounds reasonable... did I mention this is a 54-hole tournament? Yes, they get to those totals in just three rounds. Therefore, it's not just about protecting your golf ball at Pinnacle, you have to score to contend. Recent form is a factor this week for our outrights, but truth be told if a player does not have the capacity to go low, they won't be holding the trophy come Sunday.
The course itself should be prepared to challenge these ladies. Recent weather patterns in Rogers, Arkansas have the ground running great for a golf tournament. We expect temperatures starting the day in the high 50's and low 60's. The peak each afternoon should be in the mid-80's. There won't be much wind to contend with as of writing this on Tuesday. Breezes should max out around 10 mph in the first couple of days. On Sunday, the wind drops, but the chance of rain becomes a factor at 40%.
So the course and the weather are perfect for scoring. Pinnacle CC isn't that easy of a layout on paper. True it's not the longest course for the LPGA, but eight of the driving holes have fairway bunkers and every green complex comes with sand. There's a fantastic mix of tee shots required throughout. Five of the driving holes move left to right off the tee and six move right to left. If you're an avid RTL reader, you know we'll get into more of the skills required in the predictions section. To close, here's where you can catch the coverage come Sunday when we have another woman in contention.
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Keith will be covering the President's Cup from Quail Hollow. To keep up with all of the betting action, make sure you watch his match adds this week on Instagram and TikTok. They will be entertaining and the only way to communicate the best match picks once the pairings are announced each day.
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How to fill your cup
This is not your normal week. As I mentioned earlier, it becomes more like an NFL Sunday once the matches are announced each day. Actually, more like college football with those rivalries. But, I'll save that comparison for the Ryder Cup. The plan at RTL is to predict the match picks after each set of pairings are announced. It won't happen immediately, as I'll take some time to research the head-to-head matchup on Quail Hollow to determine our best route for success. I will get the video(s) published on our social feeds as soon as possible.
Pre-tourney, there are not many options to bet, unlike a regular PGA Tour event. Don't get me wrong, there are a ton of props, but those are for people who don't Read The Line. The biggest factor controlling all of this is how much everyone will play. It's easy to guess we will see a lot of JT and Jordan and Xander with Cantlay. Those two teams can play both formats very well and have a proven track record together. Other guys I like to play often over the four days are Scottie Scheffler with Sam Burns and Tony Finau with Collin Morikawa.
This is why I'm here in Charlotte. Even if these pairings don't happen, I can assess the situation and adjust with our live bets. I couldn't imagine covering this match event any other way from a betting perspective. Watching the guys in the interview room can be very telling on who is comfortable, the expectations, and who the team leaders are. The key here is to stay tuned to our "live" coverage this week. If you don't follow us already, use these links.
Most points by any player - Xander Schauffele (+700 PB)
Top Captain's pick points scorer - Jordan Spieth (+450 DK)
Top rookie point scorer - Scottie Scheffler (+300 DK)
Attention shoppers
I used that famous phrase for a very specific reason. Pinnacle CC can catch your attention quickly if you aren't careful. As I mentioned in the narrative, fifteen of the eighteen holes have water. Being accurate around this place is vital to contending. To start our outright list, each player has to be a very precise player. Now that's a very tough ask because this tournament requires aggressive scoring. That careful blend between the two is manageable because of the length. With five Par 3's, great iron players are going to play well.
I considered a deep look at Approach numbers for the competitors and Par 3 scoring. Considering almost 30% of the holes are "threes," to win a player will need to score on them. Another consideration for accuracy also comes off the tee. Here's where recent form does play a role. The last three events have all required the ladies to drive the ball well. As the weeks went on, the courses seem to get tighter and tighter culminating in last week's evergreen fest.
I touched on scoring and leaned heavily here. To make this week's list, a player must have shown a propensity to make birdies. The last five tournaments averaged nineteen under par in three rounds (six under plus per round). Does this favor the better players? Yes, but there are also a couple of rookies who I have been watching that score almost at will. Their ability to play golf courses for the first time and go deep is inspiring. Their confidence to play well has me less influenced by course history this week than usual.
The modern gamer we see each year coming up from the college and junior ranks plays fearlessly. Pinnacle CC has trouble around every corner. I don't have a statistic for being brave, but I can guarantee you all the ladies on this week's list have the courage to contend.
Hye Jin Choi (+2500)
XiYu Lin (+2800)
Pick 3* (+4000)
Pick 4* (+5000)
(*- member content)
11 wins... and counting!
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Golf Analysis, Birdie Banter, and Bonafide Insights Every Week. As a subscriber to Read The Line, you'll elevate your sports knowledge.
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