Power outage

We knew it was going to be a wild week in the mid-Atlantic, but I doubt many could guess this outcome. First, the tournament was cut to a 54-hole event. Far more of a reaction to travel concerns than a weather predicament, finishing late on a Monday and getting half the field to the west coast of Mexico had to be the driving force behind eliminating the final round. Two were tied after Saturday's third round. The first rule in running a playoff is to choose an option that will give you a quick result. The PGA Tour certainly picked a perfect hole to determine a winner. Austin Smotherman and RTL's Seamus Power played the par 3 sixteenth hole three times to decide the winner. Unfortunately, it was not Power. Smotherman picked up his second win in as many starts and gave us our EIGHTH runner-up finish on the PGA Tour in 2026. 8!! If that's not bad enough, last weekend was our SIXTH runner-up on the LPGA. FOURTEEN second place finishes in 2026...
​
The Vidanta World Mexico Open was played during the PGA Tour's regular season from 2022 to 2025. In 2026, this event was moved to the Fall Series. A field of 120 players is heading to Puerta Vallarta, Mexico to compete for $6 million and those precious FEC Points. Nine players ranked 51 through 70 are in the field alongside another 23 men ranked between 85 and 115. The first 10 (51-60) gain entry into the first two Signature Series events of 2027, while the top 100 earn their 2027 Tour Card. The top 80 on the points list are good for next year. As for the rest, there are four events left to jump inside the top 100. Two events in Mexico followed by Austin, Texas and finally Sea Island, Georgia. The clock is ticking and for many of these men time is running out.

Mexico Open starts in...

​

Paspalum playground

The first four editions of the PGA Tour's Mexico Open were played on the Vidanta Vallarta Nuevo Course. The average winning score of those four events was 20 under par. In an effort to increase the competitive challenge (and closing hole excitement), tournament officials have modified the routing. Vidanta World is a multi-course facility. Sixteen holes were taken from the Nuevo Course and two from the Nayar Course. The Nayar holes are new to this event. All of this is a little confusing, so the par 71 scorecard measuring 7,337 yards is written out below (Actual (2025 Routing)).

• Front 9: Hole 1 (16), Hole 2 (17), Hole 3 (18), Hole 4 (Nayar 8), Hole 5 (11), Hole 6 (12), Hole 7 (13), Hole 8 (14), Hole 9 (15)
• Back 9: Hole 10 (2), Hole 11 (3), Hole 12 (6), Hole 13 (7), Hole 14 (8), Hole 15 (9), Hole 16 (10), Hole 17 (Nayar 4), Hole 18 (1)

I'm sure many of you remember the driveable par 4 seventh hole. That is now the thirteenth hole on the new routing. Following the last par 5, these players will see if they start on hole 1. That back-to-back scoring chance on 12 and 13 starts the new closing stretch. I like the changes and think it will make the tournament tougher to win over the final few. Everyone remembers Brian Campbell's drive bouncing off the bamboo forest, but what we forget is the eighteenth hole is an easy par 5. Now the closing hole is a par 4 with water all down the right-hand side. That's the polar opposite of a wall of trees to protect the players on the final hole.

Between the hot, humid air and lack of breeze, ball speed will be a huge advantage across the Vidanta World courses. I already mentioned the average winning score is 20 under par, and Vegas has set the winning score over/under at 263.5 (20.5 under par). The average cutline in the first four editions is 2.3 under par. A 7,300+ layout does not sound that long by PGA Tour standards, but take a closer look at the scorecard; the compilation routing has five par 3s. The average par 4 is 441 yards long, and the average par 5 is 593 yards in length. I know Brian Campbell is our defending champion, but the leaderboards tell a different story. Longer hitters have thrived at this version of the Mexico Open. If you look closely at those standings, you see a couple of commonalities with other PGA Tour courses: Torrey Pines (South), Memorial Park Golf Course, Detroit Golf Club (before the renovation in 2026), Corales Golf Course, The Renaissance Club, and Grand Reserve. Considering the limited history of this event and the calendar move, comp courses are quite helpful. Our betting favorite is Wyndham Clark, the only top 20 ranked player (OWGR) in the field. A perfect layout for this bomber/scorer, Clark provides a nice transition to the outright breakdown.

Read The Line media ⤵️

How to win?

Nearly 40% of the approach shots across the VidantaWorld scorecard take place between 175 and 225 yards. A far cry from Port Royal, we are not in Bermuda anymore! As much as everyone is going to lean on ball speed, length, and total driving in Mexico, the real key to success is mid-iron play. This field can create 20+ birdie chances across 28 mid-range approach attempts. All five par 3s can play in this range, and seven of the nine par 4s are over 450 yards. Minimal wind and soft conditions will only increase the advantage the best iron players have. A little bounce on the greens or wind increases the opportunity to see random results. Past leaderboards succinctly display the importance of iron acumen as well. Considering the wedge-fest these players just played, you are going to see some different names near the top of this leaderboard. Five par 3s also provide an opportunity to prepare for 20 perfect lie approaches. When considering the best approach players in the field, I included par 3 scoring. I also included approaches over 250 yards. With a 297 par 4 and three par 5s over 585 yards, we will see the boys blasting some long irons (or woods) into these par 5s!

Length will decrease the average approach range these players face. Over the course of 72 holes, that gives the best ball speed players a considerable edge. Filtering for the strongest ball strikers who hit it far is another primary area of focus. The average driving distance by the field in 2025 was 299 yards. Six yards longer than the PGA Tour average, in soft conditions, longer hitters will only increase their chances for success. More than possibly any other course on the PGA Tour, driver length was mitigated last week in Bermuda. The schedule alignment is funny and poses an interesting polar set of skills in back-to-back weeks. Ben James missed the cut last week in Bermuda, yet he's a very efficient scoring option in Mexico. I bring this up because if a player missed the cut or struggled in Bermuda because the course simply did not match their DNA, I can easily look past it.

Paspalum agronomy favors full swing ball strikers over those who score from close range. In short, players who tend to contend with their short game and putter are less of a focus for me. Winners gain less than a couple of strokes against the field with their wedge around the green. The ball tends to sit up on Paspalum grass. It is spongy and far more dense than Bermudagrass. Did you see that lie Seamus Power had on the third playoff hole? That's a classic ARG Bermudagrass lie. The rough grew out in that area and the ball fell to the bottom. Highly unpredictable, Power failed to add speed at impact for fear of running the ball far past the hole. Instead, a brief decel through impact, and the rest is history. If that chip was on Paspalum, it would have been far less difficult. Since the short game test is an easier one this week, don't look for gains around the green. Instead, place that emphasis on scoring and the flatstick.

The putter will need to pop at Vidanta. Players make slightly more putts than the PGA Tour average across these putting surfaces. I think 20 under par is a great target score heading into Thursday. The new routing might play slightly more difficult than previous years, but who knows with soft surfaces and very little wind. BoB%, rounds in the 60s, strokes gained scoring against the field, par 3s, and opportunities gained are important. I am constantly asked, "what are opportunities?" A legitimate birdie putt is anything inside 20 to 25'. To reach 20 under par, a player will need to manufacture 30 or more of those chances. More than half of those chances will come on the par 5s and short 4s. To win, you are going to need the ability to putt on slow, damp, sticky, Paspalum greens. Or another way of looking at it, bad putters (similar to bad chippers) raise their floor on this type of agronomy. As such, we have to pay attention to the best ball strikers who either have a positive history on Paspalum, or putt well under slower conditions.

The average OWGR strength of field during the four regular season editions of the Mexico Open is 172. This week the OWGR rating is 180. I think this event found a great spot on the schedule. To take it a step further, what if the Mexico Open became part of the fall international series and as a national open, the winner earned a ticket to Augusta National? Is VidantaWorld a strong enough venue for such consideration? Yes, in a rotation of east and west coast Mexican venues. Fact is when Vidanta Vallarta was going up against TPC Sawgrass, Riviera, and Bay Hill it was a weak venue. Compared to the Fall Series, with its new routing it has the opportunity to stand out. I'm excited for this week on the PGA Tour and the chance to finish better than second place. Enjoy the evening golf and our outright predictions...

Outright Winners - Mexico Open

LPGA

Problems with the Board

The LPGA's traveling band is set to head south for approximately 2,000 miles from South Korea to Malaysia. Event number three (of four) on the fall Asia swing, Kuala Lumpur is the destination and host of the Maybank Championship. Much like the BMW, this is a new event on the LPGA calendar. This year marks the fourth edition of what has been a very entertaining (and lucrative) event on the fall schedule. A field of 78 players will compete for a $3 million purse and a winner's check worth $450,000. No cut after 36 holes, 68 LPGA players in the field have a chance to earn coveted CME Points and another weekly trophy. Six of the top 10 in the Rolex World Rankings are in the field alongside 25 of the top 50 overall. Those women at the top are my focus for the beginning of this preview narrative. Three players (Miyu Yamashita +500, Ruoning Yin (+650), Haeran Ryu +850) all have pre-tournament odds under 9-1! Talk about a top-heavy table, only seven players (total) have pre-tourney outright odds under +2500. To compound the challenge of beating one of these favorites, two of them (Yamashita 2025, Yin 2024) are past champions.

The LPGA is still across the Pacific Ocean for TWO more weeks, the golf starts on Wednesday night!

Western thinking

Even though this is a new(er) event on the fall calendar, Kuala Lumpur Golf and Country Club is no stranger to professional golf. KLG&CC has an East and West Course. The West Course is the championship layout and hosted the DP World Tour (European Tour) seven times between 2006-2015 for the Maybank Malaysian Open. I’ll bet many of you remember the PGA TOUR coming to Kuala Lumpur for the CIMB Classic held from 2013-2018. Justin Thomas won two years in a row (2015-16) on the West Course. To round out the professional trifecta, even the LPGA has a history at KLG&CC. From 2010-2017, the ladies played the Sime Darby LPGA. The previous three Maybank Championships posted an average winning score of 20.6 under par, with major champions winning all three! Celine Boutier won the first edition in 2023. Those winning tallies stress an emphasis on scoring. KLG&CC is a par 72 layout covering 6,536 yards. A true target test, the course has 92(!) bunkers and 13 holes with water in play. Most may think of Malaysia as a flat island in the South Pacific; it is not. The topography of this setting is also part of the challenge. Players will take a 4.6-mile walk across 18 holes and climb 528' while they do it.

Just three events remain for the women to get inside the top 60 on the season-long CME points list. From Malaysia, we head to another limited-field event in Japan and then The ANNIKA in Florida. The penultimate event of the season has a larger field with a cut, but get those points while you can because a bunch of anxious women are waiting in the US to compete in Tampa. Tournament officials have options at KLG&CC to move tee boxes and alter hole playability. An average of 15 under par was needed to crack the top 10 the last three years. It's a shame this event happens overnight. Eight of the last nine holes feature water and offer entertaining scoring chances. Holes 14, 16, and 17 are short par 4s with multiple tee box options, and the final test is an uphill par 5. Remember the nine-hole playoff Boutier won over Thitikul in 2023! Miyu won in a three-way playoff last year. With soft conditions and a scoring layout, these favorites are going to be even more difficult to take down. Yamashita, Yin, and Ryu have two wins and five top 15 results in seven starts at Kuala Lumpur G & CC. Much like Yuri Yoshida did at the BMW, we need this outright card to be confident against the world's best. And for starters, very good at the following set of skills.

How to win?

If we are going to start with scoring, then studying the recent fall leaderboards is the place to begin. Since the LPGA returned from Europe and restarted in Portland, the average winning score for the seven events is 18.4 under par! Four of the seven were 20 under par or better, and five of them were won by a top 5 player in the world (Thitikul (2), Yin (2), Yamashita (1)). By watching week after week, we have a very good idea of who is placing circles on their scorecard. Two measures I love to really show scoring separation ability are how many rounds in the 60s and strokes gained scoring. To win this event, you will need to average 5.5 under par for four days. Many pundits look at scoring averages, but those can hide the true trend. We need players who can spike in these fall events. The ones with a strong birdie-to-bogey ratio. Players who can shoot two rounds under 65 in the same event. Trust me, that doesn't happen as much as you would think and thus eliminates a bunch of names on the board.
​
Three previous Maybank Championships do not possibly provide enough handicapping information to predict the winner without some increased attention. At RTL, we love to dig deeper, and this is one of those “extra edge” weeks on tour. Looking through historic leaderboards across three tours over the past 20+ years, there are significant trends. Justin Thomas, Lee Westwood, and Hideki Matsuyama have all had considerable success at KLG&CC. Each of them is a great iron player. Inbee Park, Cristie Kerr, Lexi Thompson, and Shanshan Feng (twice) won during the previous LPGA stint in Malaysia. The DP World men played KLG&CC’s West Course for seven years, and the average winning score was 16 under par. The PGA TOUR raised the average winning score to 22 under par in its six trips to Kuala Lumpur. The women average 16 under par in their eight editions of the Sime Darby. Between the scoring history and player knowledge of the winners from the other events, we can narrow down our choices.
​
Five women scored four rounds in the 60s last year and three in 2024. Find the player(s) who can string together four solid scoring rounds, and you're going to win. The higher your frequency for scoring in the 60s, the better your chances are to win in one of these birdiefests. Scoring stems from ball striking. Accuracy reigns over length at KLG&CC, so let’s talk about approach play next. Eleven of the 18 approaches are under 150 yards. The best players in that scoring zone with their wedges and short irons are the focus. Justin Thomas won here twice and is a world-class wedge player; it checks out. Again, the recent events have also placed a spotlight on this skill. Stick with the fall's best iron players, and we will contend. To shorten the list of contenders, RTL also compared each player’s ability to hit GIRs from off the fairway. We need birdie chances, and the more GIRs you secure, the better. The last three top 10s in Malaysia averaged hitting slightly over 80% of their GIRs.
​
Calling all Bermudagrass putters because players can make putts here. For that reason, putting has the most significant impact on driving success of the last three leaderboards. The contenders are averaging 23 sub-par scores per tournament. Scoring is the coordination of proper approach play and excellent putting. I love to look at the best putts per GIR players on Bermudagrass along with putts per hole. The LPGA analytics inventory is far from complete, so we need to research multiple categories and compare. Who converts when it counts? Turns out those same players also make their six-footers to save par. I'm leaning heavily on approach proximity and putting. Believe it or not, when you count all of these key factors, we get a very tight list. With 92 bunkers and plenty of terrain changes, saving strokes around the green is a concern. The leaders will not have many up-and-down opportunities, but if and when they do, they must preserve par. KLG&CC will also present a bunch of scrambling scoring chances to close the round. Fourteen, 16, and 17 are short par 4s. A drive and a pitch is all it will take to set up a birdie (or better).
​
Of the par categories, the last two leaderboards were filled with par 5 killers and par 3(!) aficionados. That is correct, we are going to skip par 4s and focus on the correlation between these two scoring groups. It's unique to the Maybank, and that is part of what makes this venue special. The proper KLG&CC skill set requires approach accuracy, timely putting, and, when put together, record scoring. There's little doubt we have been close on the LPGA and PGA Tour in 2026. We have been all over these leaderboards. Soft conditions due to the rain will only amplify the scoring situation. Those three names at the top are a big concern. One or two to take down would be tough, but three? Hey, Yuri did it last week, and the favorite fall lean Hye Jin Choi was close as well. We’ll use the card in multiple ways to cash on those favorites and pick up an outright who jumps by them as well!

Outright Winners - Maybank Championship

RTL Weekly Editorials 📰

Do you want to be a better bettor?

Become a member of Read The Line today!

​​​​​

Think you have a gambling problem? Reach out for help. Read The line promotes responsible gaming. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit these online resources:

​The National Council on Problem Gambling​

​Council on Compulsive Gaming - New Jersey​